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Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013 at the University of Southampton. #MDRWeek. World Water Day and International Year of Water Cooperation 2013. ‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas (ESPA Deltas project)’, Presentation by Dr. Craig Hutton, ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment AU, University of Southampton. See the latest videos, interviews, pictures, tweets and views from the floor at: www.southampton.ac.uk/multidisciplinary
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Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013
World Water Day: Water Cooperation
‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas (ESPA
Deltas project)’,
by Dr. Craig Hutton, ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment, University of Southampton
Presented by: Dr. Craig Hutton ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment AU University of Southampton United Kingdom
Lecture 4. Climate change and the
integrated coastal system. Wednesday
25 July 2007
ESPA DELTA: Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And
Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas
EPSA Consortium Grant University of Southampton (Nicholls PI)
University of Oxford Exeter University
Dundee University Hadley Centre
Plymouth Marine Laboratories National Oceanography Centre (Liverpool) Plus 10 Bangladeshi partners (BUET lead)
2 Indian partners (JU, ITTK) 1 Chinese partner (ECNU)
Delta Population & Poverty
Threatened Deltas Population potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050
Source: IPCC AR4 using data in Ericson et al. (2006)
1 million
million to 50,000
50,000 to 5,000
Deltas are sinking: Pink areas are below sea level
Nile
CSDMS
Ganges
Mississippi
Mekong
Euphrates
Yellow
Indus
Mahakam
Vistula
Height above sea level
dark green < 5 m
light green < 3 m
pale green < 1m
100 km
The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBN) Delta
Population: 150 million
World Cities: Kolkata and Dhaka
The Sunderbans
Water –from the Himalayas through India and
China
Global-Mean Sea Level IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4) (2007)
Study Area
Key Ecosystems
Source: BRAC (2007)
Marine
Riverine
Floodplain
Supporting Provisioning Maintaining Cultural
Socio-Economic Trends in the delta plain
• Growing populations;
• Rising wealth and improving health, but questions of inequality;
• Changing livelihoods and migration;
• Urbanisation and infrastructure expansion;
• Intensification of agriculture;
• Increasing demand for flood management;
• Increased water demand.
Research Questions
• To understand the present relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being and health in the Bangladeshi portion of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta.
• To develop participatory methods to predict how these ecosystem services might evolve over the coming years and decades (up to 50 years) and their influence on human well-being and health under the multiple drivers of change in operation.
• To analyse how policy can influence these outcomes and promote ecosystem services and human well-being and health.
• To develop participatory methods to select robust policies that are effective across the range of uncertainty, including adaptive management approaches.
• To test the transferability of these methods to other populated deltas.
climate
catchment
delta
other
Social-Economic
ModFlow POLCOMs-ERSEM
FVCOM (coast)
FVCOM (river)
Spatial scale
Tem
pora
l sc
ale
1m 10m 1km 10km 100 km
1hr
1d
1m
o
1yr
100 y
r
HadCM3
global regional catchment local point
GWAVA
PRECIS
CAESAR INCA HydroTrend
FVCOM (marine)
MAXTENT
CropWat
Mangrove
AquaCrop
Fishery
14
Scales in Bio-physical & socio-economic models
15 UNSW, Canberra
Systems Dynamics: Integration of Socio-Environmental Models
in such a way as to consider the systems impacts of
interventions and policies on socio-economic
as well as biophysical outcomes
e.g Prelim.
conceptualisation
for ESPA Deltas Systems are combined
to produce an integrated
Socio-environmental approach
with feedback and thresholds
Mangrove
area Biomass
Production
rate
X Decay
rate
X
+ +
Temperature
CO2
fertilisation +
+
Species
density/diversity No of
tigers
No of
deer Tree ha-1
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
No of
Tourists
Land erosion
Magnitude/frequency
of cyclones
+ Sea Level Rise
+
-
Alluvial
deposition
Commercial
exploitation of trees
Size of
protected area
Market price of
tourist attractions +
+
+
+
+
Firewood collection
for personal use
Honey,
wax, fruits
meat
collection
+ +
Market price of
Goods (Collector)
Wealth Nutrition
+
+ +
+
+
Fish
Nursery
+
Nutrient
load
Sediment
load
River flow
+ -
Water
Quality
-
+
No of
migrating
people
+
+
+
+
- -
-
Sunderban Socio-
economic
model
Coastal
fishery
+ - - -
?
outsiders
16
Crop
damage
Pollination
Crop
Production Growth
rate
X Decay
rate
X
+ +
+ + +
Agriculture
Area
Employment
opportunities Nutrition
Nutrients +
Temperature
CO2
fertilisation +
+
Salinity -
Precipitation
+
+
-
River flooding
High intensity
storm
+
+
Population
Number +
Agriculture
Socio-
economic
model
Mangrove
17
Building
damage Settlement
size
+
River
flooding
High intensity
storm/cyclone + +
Coastal
flooding
+
+
Young
Population Births X
Deaths X
+ +
Birth rate Death rate
+ +
Working
Population
Elderly
Population Maturation X
Aging X
Migration -
+ +
Employment
opportunities
Settlement
Education
Shrimp
farm Fishery
Agriculture Sunderban
Socio-
economic
model
+
-
Arsenic ?
+
Wealth +
18
Land erosion
Fish
capture
No of
Tourists
Magnitude/frequency
of cyclones
+
Sea Level
Rise
+
+ +
Employment
opportunities Market price
of fish (Collector)
Market price
of tourist attractions
(Collector) + +
+ +
Nutrition + Population
number +
+
Fishery
Socio-
economic
model
Biomass of
Fish stock Biomass
Production
rate
X Mortality
rate
X
+ +
+ +
Nutrients
Primary
production +
+ Arsenic
+
Sunderban
Nursery +
19
Shrimp
Biomass Growth
rate
X Mortality
rate
X
+ +
+ +
Shrimp farm
area
Employment
opportunities Nutrition
Nutrients +
Temperature
+
+
Population
Number +
Saline pollution
of freshwater
Increased likelihood
of coastal flood defence
failure
Building Damage
+
+
Shrimp farm
+
Market price of
Shrimp (Collector)
Socio-
economic
model
Settlement
+
20
Thank you
http://espadeltas.geodata.soton.ac.uk
/
Website: www.southampton.ac.uk/multidisciplinary
Blog: http://blog.soton.ac.uk/multidisciplinary/tag/mdrweek/
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World Water Day: Water Cooperation Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013