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Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling range shifts in dynamic environments – How can evolution enter the stage?
Anne Duputié CEFE, Montpellier
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Parmesan et al. Nature 1999
Tircis
1940-69
1970-97
1915-39
- Migration
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
65% of 35 non migrating butterflies have shifted their range northwards in <100 y
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Zhu et al. GCB 2012
Northward shift
Southward shift
Expansion
Contraction
- Migration (or not)
No
rth
ern
bo
un
dar
y ch
ange
(d
eg la
titu
de
)
Southern boundary change (deg latitude)
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
only 20% of 92 North American tree species show a northward range shift (59%: contraction)
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Bradshaw & Holzapfel PNAS 2001
1940-69
1970-97
Latitude (corrected for altitude)
Wyeomyia smithii (photo S Gray)
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation
Cri
tica
l ph
oto
per
iod
(h
)
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
Evolution of critical photoperiod for entering into diapause (heritable trait, h²=15-70%) within 25 years
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
Drosphila birchii
Fragmented populations; no available genetic variance to respond to stress
Hoffmann et al Science 2003
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Chamaechrista fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
migration climate shift by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Chamaechrista fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
migration
Adaptation (no migration)
climate shift by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Chamaechrista fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Chamaechrista fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Chamaechrista fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Chamaechrista fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Etterson & Shaw Science 2001
Future optimum
climate shift by 2035
Responses to environmental changes (& lack thereof)
pre
coci
ty
number of leaves
Chamaechrista fasciculata
Distribution of Chamaechrista fasciculata
- Migration (or not) - Adaptation (or not) . generation time . no standing variance left . correlations among traits
Phenotype distribution
Correlations among traits slow down evolution
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Observed occurrences
Observed/inferred density
Probability of occurrence
Habitat suitability
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Observed occurrences
Observed/inferred density
Probability of occurrence
Habitat suitability
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Example: Fagus sylvatica, European beech
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Modelling species distributions
Example: Fagus sylvatica, European beech
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributions
?
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Ph
en
om
en
olo
gica
l”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributions P
(occ
urr
ence
)
environment
“
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Ph
en
om
en
olo
gica
l”
“Pro
cess
-bas
ed”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Traits: reaction norms
Growth/ Survival…
(Fitness)
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributions P
(occ
urr
ence
)
environment
Trai
t
environment
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Ph
en
om
en
olo
gica
l”
“Pro
cess
-bas
ed”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Traits: reaction norms
Growth/ Survival…
(Fitness)
“Co
nce
ptu
al” Traits:
realised vs optimum
Fitness
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributions P
(occ
urr
ence
)
environment
Trai
t
environment
Fitn
ess
Matching trait/optimum
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
“Ph
en
om
en
olo
gica
l”
“Pro
cess
-bas
ed”
Environment
Probability of occurrence
Traits: reaction norms
Growth/ Survival…
(Fitness)
“Co
nce
ptu
al” Traits:
realised vs optimum
Fitness
Ease of calibration
Understanding
Tmax Tmin Prec GDD
…
Modelling species distributions P
(occ
urr
ence
)
environment
Trai
t
environment
Fitn
ess
Matching trait/optimum
Trait evolution
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Genetic adaptation and distribution ranges
1. Constraints to adaptation ? a conceptual model of trait adaptation on a shifting gradient
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms a process-based model of tree distribution ranges
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Factors limiting distribution ranges: Topography Biotic interactions Demography Adaptation Migration
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Brown AmNat 1974
Grinnell Auk 1917
Mimura & Aitken JEB 2009
« Fundamental » niche
Realised niche
Svenning & Skov EcolLett 2007
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Factors limiting distribution ranges: Topography Biotic interactions Demography Adaptation Migration
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Brown AmNat 1974
Grinnell Auk 1917
Mimura & Aitken JEB 2009
« Fundamental » niche
Realised niche
Svenning & Skov EcolLett 2007
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Breeder’s equation: R=h² S
Available genetic variance
Selection strength
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models Fi
tnes
s
(in
trin
sic
gro
wth
rat
e r)
Mean trait z
Selection gradient
Model: - One species - Quantitative trait evolves
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fitn
ess
(i
ntr
insi
c gr
ow
th r
ate
r)
Mean trait z
Selection gradient
Model: - One species - Quantitative trait evolves - Environmental gradient
Fitness r
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Model: - One species - Quantitative trait evolves - Environmental gradient - Variable population density
Fitness r
Space
Den
sity
Coupling demography/adaptation
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Coupling demography/adaptation
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Model: - One species - Quantitative trait evolves - Environmental gradient - Variable population density
Fitness r
Space
Den
sity
Coupling demography/adaptation
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models: - No spatial heterogeneity: Maximal speed of environmental change (Lynch & Lande 1993)
- Can be generalised to several traits (Gomulkiewicz & Houle AmNat 2009)
0 2
12
2 2
G Gc
S e S
V Vk k r
V N V
too little genetic variance or too weak selection
low fecundity
small population
Extinction if:
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models: - No spatial heterogeneity - Spatial heterogeneity only (Kirkpatrick & Barton AmNat 1997)
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Adaptation depends on VG and migration
Mea
n t
rait
optimum
realised
Space
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Adaptation depends on VG and migration
Wider distribution for intermediate migration rates
Space
Mea
n t
rait
D
ensi
ty
optimum
realised
Space
Some results of this type of models: - No spatial heterogeneity - Spatial heterogeneity only (Kirkpatrick & Barton AmNat 1997)
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models: - No spatial heterogeneity - Spatial heterogeneity only - Spatial and temporal heterogeneity (Pease et al Ecology 1989)
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Space
Mea
n t
rait
D
ensi
ty
optimum
realised
Space
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models: - No spatial heterogeneity - Spatial heterogeneity only - Spatial and temporal heterogeneity (Pease et al Ecology 1989)
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Space
Mea
n t
rait
D
ensi
ty
optimum
realised
Space Clines move as the environment changes. If persisting, the species shifts its range at the speed of the environmental change, with a lag.
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Some results of this type of models: - No spatial heterogeneity - Spatial heterogeneity only - Spatial and temporal heterogeneity
what about genetic constraints in heterogeneous environments?
1. Responses to environmental changes: existing conceptual models
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
- One species - Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
- One species - Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S - Genetic variance: G
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
- One species - Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S - Genetic variance: G - Environmental gradient, slope b
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Trai
t m
ean
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species - Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S - Genetic variance: G - Environmental gradient, slope b - Shifting at speed v
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Trai
t m
ean
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species - Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S - Genetic variance: G - Environmental gradient, slope b - Shifting at speed v - Migration: density-dependent diffusion, σ
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b σ
Space
Den
sity
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Trai
t m
ean
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species - Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S - Genetic variance: G - Environmental gradient, slope b - Shifting at speed v - Migration: density-dependent diffusion, σ - Spatial selection gradient Sb
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Trai
t m
ean
Space
Den
sity
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
- One species - Fitness depends on several traits under stabilizing selection: S - Genetic variance: G - Environmental gradient, slope b - Shifting at speed v - Migration: density-dependent diffusion, σ - Spatial selection gradient Sb - G, S, b assumed constant
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Space
optimum 1
optimum 2
Trai
t m
ean
D
ensi
ty
Space
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: model ingredients
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Space
trait z optima
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines Clines often flatter than optima
Space
trait z optima
realised
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines Clines often flatter than optima Population density is gaussian
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time Clines often flatter than optima Population density is gaussian Population shifts
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time Clines often flatter than optima Population density is gaussian Population shifts, with constant lag
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
Ln
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time Clines often flatter than optima Population density is gaussian Population shifts, with constant lag
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
Ln ρ
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
σ
Traits develop clines, shifting across time Clines often flatter than optima Population density is gaussian Population shifts, with constant lag Range width constant
Space
trait z optima
fitness r
Space
Space
density n
realised
Ln ρ
Vn
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
G b
Sb
Traits develop clines, shifting across time Clines often flatter than optima Population density is gaussian Population shifts, with constant lag Range width constant
Analytical expressions for adaptation & demography. Increase when: Maximal adaptability A = bTS G Sb
G aligned with Sb Minimal spatial fitness gradient B = bT S b
b aligned with S
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Tra
it 1
Trait 2
Adaptive landscape
S
b
Traits develop clines, shifting across time Clines often flatter than optima Population density is gaussian Population shifts, with constant lag Range width constant
Analytical expressions for adaptation & demography. Increase when: Maximal adaptability A = bTS G Sb
G aligned with Sb Minimal spatial fitness gradient B = bT S b
b aligned with S
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
0 22 2c
B Av r
B
Extinction if change faster than:
Low fecundity Maladapted migrants
Not enough adaptation
Slow migration
Tolerance to change:
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: results
Hinders adaptation Widens range
diffusion σ
Ran
ge w
idth
diffusion σ
Cri
tica
l sp
eed
o
f ch
ange
Migration:
diffusion σ
Clin
e sl
op
es
Maximal tolerance for intermediate dispersal
+ =
0 22 2c
B Av r
B
Extinction if change faster than:
Low fecundity Maladapted migrants
Not enough adaptation
Slow migration
Tolerance to change:
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. EcolLett. 2012
Adaptation to change easier when - genetic variance available in the direction of the (spatial) selection gradient - optimum changes in a direction under weak stabilising selection.
Counter gradients may appear due to genetic correlations/correlational selection
The more traits, the more persistence is threatened.
1. Genetic correlations and range shifts: wrap-up
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fixed genetic variance Fixed, diffusive dispersal Constrained fitness function No phenotypic plasticity Linear gradients shifting at constant speed
1. BUT…
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fixed genetic variance Fixed, diffusive dispersal Constrained fitness function No phenotypic plasticity Linear gradients shifting at constant speed
Burrows et al. Science 2011
Williams et al PNAS 2007
Non-analogous climates, B2 scenario
Projected temperature changes (°C/decade)
Spatial gradient (°C/km)
1. BUT…
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Fixed genetic variance Fixed, diffusive dispersal Constrained fitness function No phenotypic plasticity Linear gradients shifting at constant speed
use a process-based model to: - evaluate selective pressures - take phenotypic plasticity into account - explicitly model spatial heterogeneity
1. BUT…
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Genetic adaptation and distribution ranges
1. Constraints to adaptation ? a conceptual model of trait adaptation on a shifting gradient
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms a process-based model of tree distribution ranges
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Fitness
Local climate
Phenological traits
Reproduction Survival
Resistance traits
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Fitness
Reproduction Survival
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fitness
Reproduction Survival
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Fitness
Reproduction Survival
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf senescence
Fitness
Reproduction Survival
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Frost Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf senescence
Fitness
Reproduction Survival
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Frost
Drought Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf senescence
Fitness
Reproduction Survival
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Chuine & Beaubien EcolLett. 2001
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: the model PHENOFIT
Frost
Drought Bud dormancy
Leafing
Flowering
Fruit maturation
Leaf senescence
Fitness
Reproduction Survival
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: calibrating the model
fructification
leafing + senescence
Using time series: phenology & climate
Leaf
ing
dat
e observed
modelled
Year
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: validating the model
Presence / absence Observed distribution Fitness simulated by
PHENOFIT (1980-2000)
Using observed distribution ranges
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
1950-2000 50-year fecundity, simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
1990-2040
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity, simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2010-2060
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity, simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2030-2080
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity, simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2050-2100
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: model extrapolations
50-year fecundity, simulated by PHENOFIT
Under scenario A1Fi (“business as usual”)
Example: sessile oak Quercus petraea
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=166
d=126
d=103
d=164
d=124
d=101
1plasticd d 1plasticd d
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=166
d=126
d=103
d=164
d=124
d=101
Fecundity
1plasticd d 1plasticd d
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
« plastic » date
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=166
d=126
d=103
d=164
d=124
d=101
Fecundity
1plasticd d 1plasticd d
log fecundity
trait
Method: impose event dates – e.g. leafing date.
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
European beech Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection gradient
2000
Fecundity: high low
Budburst selected to occur: later earlier
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2020
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
European beech Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity: high low
Budburst selected to occur: later earlier
Fecundity
Selection gradient
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
2040
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
European beech Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection gradient
Fecundity: high low
Budburst selected to occur: later earlier
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
2060
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
European beech Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection gradient
Fecundity: high low
Budburst selected to occur: later earlier
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
2080
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
European beech Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection gradient
Fecundity: high low
Budburst selected to occur: later earlier
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
European beech Fagus sylvatica
Fecundity
Selection gradient
Fecundity: high low
Budburst selected to occur: later earlier
2100
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: determine selection gradients
Temperature
Pre
cip
itat
ion
s
Temperature
Selection for later budburst: western (warmer) part of the range
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
European beech Fagus sylvatica
Budburst selected to occur: later earlier
In the climatic (niche) space:
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
Budburst date (imposed)
Fecu
nd
ity
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
Jan 30 Mar 30 Jun 20
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: why these patterns?
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
Budburst date (imposed)
Fecu
nd
ity
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
Jan 30 Mar 30 Jun 20
frost damage
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: why these patterns?
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Duputié et al. in prep
insufficient time to reach maturation
Budburst date (imposed)
Fecu
nd
ity
Sessile oak Quercus petraea
Jan 30 Mar 30 Jun 20
frost damage
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: why these patterns?
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Method: suppress reaction norm phenology/local climate Treatments:
plastic population
d=165
d=125
d=102
d=152
d=120
d=96
year1 year 2
200
160
120
80
Resistance
Fitness
Climate
Phenology
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
Method: suppress reaction norm phenology/local climate Treatments:
plastic population no interannual plasticity
J=165
J=125
J=102
J=152
J=120
J=96
year1 year 2
200
160
120
80
d=145
d=125
d=102
d=145
d=125
d=102
Resistance
Fitness
Climate
Phenology
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous burdensome
interannual plasticity
pre
cip
itat
ion
s
temperature
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Pré
cip
itat
ion
s
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous burdensome
interannual plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecu
nd
ity
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Pré
cip
itat
ion
s
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous burdensome
interannual plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecu
nd
ity
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Pré
cip
itat
ion
s
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous burdensome
interannual plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecu
nd
ity
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013 Rutschmann et al. in prep
Pré
cip
itat
ion
s
Température
2. Evolution of trait reaction norms: where is plasticity beneficial?
advantageous burdensome
interannual plasticity
imposed budburst date
fecu
nd
ity
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Wrap-up
Phenotypic plasticity may translate constraints Interannual variability on budburst/senescence dates weakly
impacts fitness + long-distance gene flow e.g. Kremer et al. 2012
-> reaction norms selected at the scale of the range?
… except at range/niche margins
e.g. Pichancourt & van Klinken 2012
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Perspectives
Selection gradients vary over space/time weak response to climatic change?
Can the evolution of phenology mitigate projections of range shifts in temperate trees?
Optimal reaction norm
Simulated fitness, t=later
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Perspectives
Selection gradients vary over space/time weak response to climatic change?
Can the evolution of phenology mitigate projections of range shifts in temperate trees?
Optimal reaction norm
Simulated fitness, t=later
PhD project, O. Ronce/I. Chuine, ED SIBAGHE
response Gβ
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Perspectives
Selection gradients vary over space/time weak response to climatic change?
Can the evolution of phenology mitigate projections of range shifts in temperate trees?
Optimal reaction norm
realised reaction norm Simulated fitness, t=later
PhD project, O. Ronce/I. Chuine, ED SIBAGHE
response Gβ
Anne Duputié – Models in Evolutionary Ecology – May 23rd, 2013
Thanks!
Isabelle Chuine
François Massol Ophélie Ronce
Alexis Rutschmann
Mark Kirkpatrick
![MEE [fitzuica]](https://img.dokumen.tips/doc/110x75/5571fb61497959916994b955/mee-fitzuica.jpg)
