AIRO DCC Housing Monitoring Tool Sept 8th

Housing Intelligence for Dublin

Launch of the Housing Monitoring Tool for the Dublin Region

All-Island Research Observatory (AIRO) www.airo.ie

Dr Dáithí Downey (Dublin City Council) and Mr Justin Gleeson (AIRO)


• Joint project between Dublin City Council and AIRO at Maynooth University

• Primary objective? • Demonstrate how the mapping of housing data and production of

online monitoring tool can be used to support decision-making Key function is to assist decision-making in the provision of housing and related

services in Dublin

• Decision-making by a wide variety of interests including:

– Construction sector, planners, policy-makers, politicians and the general public

• Broad Project steps: 1. Development of DCC Housing Monitoring System based on readily

available census-based housing datasets 2. Development of DSP ‘Rent Supplement’ housing data indicators to

illustrate the scale and location of recipients at the local level 3. Identify and integrate existing ‘in-house’ Dublin City Council

housing related datasets 4. Project technical report including recommendations for next steps

• Project developed over 6 month period in 2014 to this ‘proof of concept’ stage and launch


Housing Intelligence for Dublin - Census

• (1) Development of baseline dataset on housing from Census 2011 (203 variables)

– Housing Tenure • Owner Occupied, Owner Occupied with/without mortgage • Rented from Private Landlord • Rented from Local Authority • Rented from Voluntary Body • Occupied Free of Rent

– Housing Type (House/Bungalow, Flat/Apartment, Bed-Sit, Caravan/Mobile, Not Stated)

– Housing Year Built (10 age bands, latest 2006 or later) – Number of rooms in Households (1 to 8 plus) – Housing Vacancy – Central Heating, Water supply, Sewerage

• All data can be mapped at the Small Area (SA) and Electoral Division (ED) level across the region

– Small Areas (SAs): 4,806 with average pop 264, average housing stock 109 – Electoral Divisions (EDs): 322 with average pop 3,900

• Time Series Housing Tenure (1991 to 2011)


• As of 2011 - 121,690 Privately Rented (PR) households within the Dublin Region

– 36.7% of State total • Private sector renting in region has increased by

106% since 2002 – Dublin City +72% (+28, 956)

• In 2011, over a 1/3 of households in Dublin City are PR (69,032) – 56.7% of region total

– Fingal 22.3% – S Dublin 21.3% – DLR 17.5%

• Highest rates in city centre and new regeneration areas (Spencer Dock, Grand Canal)

– Traditional private rented areas: – Phibsboro, Drumcondra – Portobello, Rathmines, Ballsbridge

• High levels of support from DSP rent

supplement (increasing levels of long-term >18months)

Housing Intelligence for Dublin – Rent Supplement

• Rising levels of rent supplement supporting Private Rented sector in Ireland

• Total of 87, 684 recipients in 2012 – Approximately 1 RS payment for every

3.7 private rented households • €422,536m expenditure on Rent

Supplement in 2012 • 32,584 (37.1%) in Dublin region

– 11,475 (36%) short-term – 21,109 (64%) long-term (+18 months)

• Target group for Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS)

• Rapidly rising rents – +7.6% increase in rental prices in

Dublin in last year • +6.4% houses • +8% apartments

• Increasing pressure on Rent Supplement recipients


• (2) Mapping Rent Supplement data from Dept. Social Protection – Dataset available to break down the Private Rented sector

• Who and where are the recipients of Rent Supplement across the Dublin Region?

– Following negotiations with the Department for Social Protection (DSP), the AIRO team secured access to a database of Rent Supplement information for the Dublin region for both 2011 and 2013

– Data Protection a major concern for DSP • Confidentiality Agreement set up between DSP and NIRSA • Based on previous agreement set up with Data Protection Commissioner

for project on accessing Live Register data in DLR

– NIRSA appointed as Data Processor • All data stored on encrypted USB • Personal information stripped from database (pps, name, dob etc) • Individual records to be aggregated to EDs and SAs (if suitable) • Aggregates with <5 are to be compressed • DCC never access any raw or individual datasets from DSP database


• October 2013 extract geo-coded to allow mapping at local level – 32,439 individual records


• October 2013 extract – 32,419

• Dublin City = 16,163 (50%) – Fingal = 7,824 (24%) – S Dublin = 6,749 (21%) – DLR 5.2% = 1,683 (5%)


• Total Rent Supplement Claimants 'Long-Term‘ >18months – Less than 5 : 3,099 – 5 to <9: 1,098 – 9 to <16: 426 – 16 to <27: 157 – 27 to <45: 23 – More than 45 : 3


• Approx €15m in Rent Supplement

expenditure (est. September 2013) – Dublin City 44% (€6.52m) – Fingal 27% (€4m) – S Dublin 24% (€3.58m) – DLR 6% (€835k)

• We can map this expenditure at the local level

– Less than €1,700 : 2,393 – > €1,700 to €4,000 : 1,189 – > €4,000 to €7,500 : 709 – > €7,500 to €12,500 : 324 – > €12,500 to €20,000 : 149 – More than €20,000 : 42


• Indicators available in the Housing Monitoring System – Electoral Division level only – Inclusion of Small Area for some variables

• Large areas washed out due to confidentiality threshold

– Total Persons in receipt of Rent Supplement – Rent Supplement claimant rates per '000 households?

• Rates per '000 households • Rates per '000 rented households

– Rent Supplement claimants aged 18-65 – Rent Supplement claimants by age group and gender: Under 25, 25 to 50, Over 50 – Length of Rent Supplement claim: Less than 6 months, 6 to 12 months, 12 to 18

months, Over 18 months. – Rent Supplement claimants by Marital Status: Married or Cohabitating, Separated

or Divorced, Widowed or Deserted, Single, Never Married or Unmarried – Total Rent Supplement Expenditure

• Total Payments per month (€) • Average Payments per month (€)

Housing Intelligence for Dublin – DCC Data

• (3) Identify and integrate existing ‘in-house’ Dublin City housing related datasets

– Data analyst based in DCC over two week period to gain access to IT systems and databases

– Provide recommendation of how to geo-enable datasets to gain further insight

• Housing Loans • Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS) • Housing Inspections

– Housing Loans

• March 2014 • 3,159 Records • 85.5% of Loans Open and Redeemable

– 45% (1,202) of Loans Open and Redeemable in Arrears

Housing Intelligence for Dublin – Mapping System

• Hosting of Mapping Toolkit – Project mapping tool hosted on AIRO platform – Project description page – Potential to embed in DCC website etc http://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/airo

http://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/airo

Housing Intelligence for Dublin – Next Steps

• Next Steps: 1. Produce inaugural annual report on key housing indicators across Dublin

region 2. On-going working relationship with AIRO for the provision of:

a) Additional work with DCC and FCC, SDCC and DLRCC to indentify additional housing datasets for inclusion in mapping system

b) Maintenance and update of key DSP data on SWA rent supplement including additional analysis of DSP datasets to produce time-series at local level

c) Development of a joint project with PRTB to create mapped output of Rent Index and related data on private rented housing in Dublin.

d) Explore opportunities with other public and private data sources on housing for inclusion in the monitoring tool (e.g. Daft.ie; Irish Central Bank)

Thanks

Questions?

w: www.airo.ie e: [email protected]

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AIRO DCC Housing Monitoring Tool Sept 8th