* “RISK”

*Hazard vs. Risk

*A hazard is a present condition, event, object, or circumstance that could lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event such as an accident. It is a source of danger.

*Risk is the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. It can be viewed as future uncertainty created by the hazard.

*Accident vs. Incident

*Accident

- an undesired event that results in harm to people damage to property or loss of property.

*Incident

- is relatively insignificant event that might have serious consequences. Incident there is no serious injury nor death but might be some involved.

*In aviation:

Accident is an occurrence during the operation of an aircraft, that entails:

- a fatality or serious injury;

- substantial damage to the aircraft involving structural failure or requiring major repair of the aircraft; or

- the aircraft is missing.

An incident is an occurrence, other than an accident, associated with the operation of an aircraft that affects or could affect the safety of operation. A serious incident is an incident involving circumstances indicating that an accident nearly occurred.

* Airbus A320-200 overshot the runway at Davao International Airport

-”kind of accident”

-“kind of accident”

*RISK

*Risk (ICAO)—“The likelihood of injury to personnel, damage to equipment or structures, loss of material, or reduction of ability to perform a prescribed function, measured in terms of probability and severity.”

*Risk (FAA)—“The composite of predicted severity and likelihood of the potential effect of a hazard in the worst credible system state.”

The ICAO definition is more casual and conversational, relating the broad meaning of the word.

The FAA definition is functional, indicating not only their two components of the term (severity and likelihood), but also what it is being measured (the potential effect of a hazard), and when to measure it (in the worst credible system state).

* Therefore, The ICAO definition introduces the student to an overview of the mathematics of risk, while the FAA presents the algorithm.

The aviation industry faces a diversity of risks everyday, many capable of compromising the viability of an operator and some even posing a threat to the industry.

Indeed, risk is a by-product of doing business. Not all risks can be eliminated, nor are all conceivable risk mitigation measures economically feasible.

Daily, decisions are made in real time, weighing the probability and severity of any adverse consequences implied by the risk against the expected gain of taking the risk. This process is known as risk management.

*RISK MANAGEMENT

*it is an integral component of safety management.

*serves to focus safety efforts on those hazards posing the greatest risks.

*it facilitates the balancing act between assessed risks and viable risk mitigation.

*The concepts of risk management have equal application in the decision- making by management in flight operations, air traffic control, maintenance, airport management, manufacturer .

*Risk Management is the identification, analysis and elimination (and/or mitigation to an acceptable level) of those hazards, as well as the subsequent risks that threaten the viability of an organization.

*RISK ASSESSMENT- it involves consideration of both the probability and the

severity of any adverse consequences.- required to assess its potential for harm or damage. - is a quantitative value assigned to a task, action, or

event.

* The risk assessment determines the degree of risk (negligible, low, medium, or high) and whether the degree of risk is worth the outcome of the planned activity.

*RISK ACCEPTABILITY*The risks can be prioritized relative to other,

unresolved safety hazards. This is critical in making rational decisions to allocate limited resources against those hazards posing the greatest risks to the organization.

*By weighing the likelihood of an undesirable outcome against the potential severity of that outcome, the risk can be categorized within a risk assessment matrix.

In this version of a risk assessment matrix:

a) Severity of risk is ranked as Catastrophic, Hazardous, Major, Minor or Negligible with a descriptor for each indicating the potential severity of consequences;

b) Probability (or Likelihood) of occurrence is also ranked through five different levels of qualitative definition and descriptors are provided for each likelihood of occurrence;

c) Values may be assigned numerically, to weigh the relative importance of each level of severity and probability.

Having used a risk matrix to assign values to risks, a range of values may be assigned in order to categorize risks as acceptable, undesirable or unacceptable.

a) Acceptable means that no further action needs to be taken. Unless the risk can be reduced further at little cost or effort.

b) Undesirable (acceptable with mitigation or tolerable) means that the affected persons are prepared to live with the risk in order to have certain benefits. So risk is being mitigated as best as possible.

c) Unacceptable means that operations under the current conditions must cease until the risk is reduced to at least the Tolerable level.

*RISK MITIGATION *Risks have to be managed to a level “as low as reasonably practicable” (ALARP). This means that the risk must be balances against the time, cost and difficulty of taking measure to reduces or eliminate the risk.

*When the acceptability of the risk has been found to be Undesirable or Unacceptable, control measures need to be introduced — the higher the risk, the greater the urgency. The level of risk can be reduced either by reducing the severity of the potential consequences, by reducing the likelihood of occurrence, or by reducing the exposure to that risk.

*The optimum solution will vary, depending on the local circumstances . In formulating meaningful safety action, an understanding of the adequacy of existing defences is required.

*DEFENSE ANALYSIS

*A major component of any safety system is the defences put in place to protect people, property or the environment. These defences can be used to:

a) reduce the probability of unwanted events; and

b) reduce the severity of the consequences associated with any unwanted events.

Defences can be categorized into two types:

* Physical defences

- these include objects that discourage or prevent inappropriate action, or that mitigate the consequences of events. Example: switch covers, firewalls, survival equipment, warning and alarms.

*Administrative defences

- these include procedures and practices that mitigate the probability of an accident. Example: safety regulations, supervision ad inspection, and personal proficiency.

*RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES

There is a range of strategies available for risk mitigation. For example:

*a) Exposure avoidance. The risky task, practice, operation or activity, is avoided because the risk exceeds the benefits.

*b) Loss reduction. Activities are taken to reduce the frequency of the unsafe events or the magnitude of the consequences.

*c) Segregation of exposure. Action is taken to isolate the effects of the risk or build in redundancy to protect against the risks,

*BY: Win Valencia

End of my presentation.Thank you!