2012 市場展望

蘇香珍 2011/12/23

2012 市場主角仍在歐元區

歐元區主債信評 (2011/12)

PIIGS歐豬五國

歐元問題的全球 化

• 歐元區的債務危機從 2009 年開始燃燒，在希臘、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙之後，義大利也面臨了巨額債務的到期。

• 在全球化的經濟體下，歐元主權債問題已不再局限於歐元區，而早已跨出邊境成為了全球經濟問題。

• 各國家的借貸在經濟繁榮時問題都不大，一旦其中有個國家無法應付本身的貸款時，對這些國外銀行及金融機構的債主們將面臨龐大的損失。

這些國家的債主是誰 ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

Ireland

Italy

Italy refinancing needs- next 2 years

Source: Absolute return partners

Time bombs in Italy , Spain

Source: www.spiegel.de/international/business/bild-801071-287703.html

這些國家的債務不是短期的問題 , 尤其是希臘

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-54629.html

義大利將到期的債券更不是小數目

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-54629.html

西班牙

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-54629.html

EU: Average Debt Maturity

http://www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/eu-average-debt-maturity.html

PIIGS Refinancing Per Year (-2014) and Per Month (-2013)

• For Ireland, Greece and Portugal the interest rates have been rising since last year to unpayable highs. That's why they are financing its debt through the EFSF and the IMF at the moment. The interest rates for Italy and Spain have been rising lately as well.

Together these five countries (debt redemption, interest payments, primary balance deficits and bank recapitalisations) have to lend 1500 billion euro's in the next three years.

Source: www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/piigs-refinancing-per-year-2014-and-per.html

The refinancing needs for these countries in the next 14 months.

Source: www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/piigs-refinancing-per-year-2014-and-per.html

Euro area: Sovereign spreads vs. 10Y Bonds

This chart shows the Government Bond Spreads (difference between interest rates of 10 year government bodns of the selected countries verser the interest rate of german bonds). You can see that for some of the countries these spreads are higher than they were in the years before.

http://www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/house-prices-around-world-us-house.html

義大利 10 年期公債殖利率升破 7%

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/bild-801071-287703.html

只是 , 歐債不只是歐盟的事

亞洲只佔一小部份

新興市場對歐元區的出口

• 歐洲央行 (European Central Bank) 最近一次長期再融資操作獲得了 4,890 億歐元的投標﹐不僅遠高於預期﹐而且創下了歐洲央行所有流動性工具獲得投標的最高紀錄。這將確保金融業在新年後的相當一段時間延續平靜祥和的氣氛﹐但不知道能否帶來長久的解決之道。

• 這筆資金約佔了歐洲銀行一年到期金額的 2/3, 因而有效舒緩了金融市場短期的壓力 .

• 市場反應義大利 10 年期公債殖利率上升 0.12% 到 6,69%. 西班牙公債殖利率跳升 0.17% 到 5.2%

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