014 Climate Change

Sustainable Development and Climate ChangeThe basic processes that drive global climate change and then explore how cities can mitigate and adapt to climate change, like for instance temperature rise, flood risks, and other weather extremes. National Energy Security scenarios and theories based on Indian context…

Prof. Omkar ParishwadAsst. Professor, Town Planning

+91 [email protected]

Elective II

21/04/2016

URBAN ENERGY SYSTEMS

Overview…

Unit 4:Sustainable Urban Development

Shape and Structure

Urban Services..

Natural ResourcesLiveability, Urban livingPolicy & Governance

Urban Growth

Socio-Economic

Climate Change

Resource Shortage

Digitization & Geo

SynthesisThemes

Global Drivers for change / Challenges

Intro

Climate change: Abnormal Variation in Climate. Effect parts of Earth(ice caps) over decades to millions of years.

Climate change is happening

Our Earth is warming. 1880 to 2012, average global temperature up by 0.85°C.

By 2100, this increase will exceed 2°C compared to 1850 to 1900.

Small changes in average temperature of Earth lead to large and potentially dangerous shifts in climate and weather

The evidence is clear. Rising global temperatures + Changes in weather and climate. Many places have seen:

Changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more frequent and severe heat waves.

Climate Change…

Science of Climate Change

Increase in GHG concentrations in

the atmosphere over the last 2,000

years

The Green house effect

Assessment of global change in temperature by IPCC

Graphs compare

observed changes in temperature

(black lines) with model results

that include only

natural climate forcings like

volcanic eruptions and changes in

solar energy (blue) and

model results that use both natural

and human caused climate

forcings (pink).

Snow cover

• Annual average Arctic sea ice has shrunk, with larger decreases observed each decade. Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined.

Rain and

drought

• There have been significant changes in precipitation patterns globally. The area affected by drought is likely to have increased since the 1970s.

A hotter world

• Over the past 50 years, cold days & nights, frosts have become less frequent and hot days and hot nights, more frequent.

Extreme

weather

• An increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic has been observed. Warm air is fuel for cyclones and hurricanes.

Seasons

• Spring events come earlier and plants and animals are moving upwards and pole wards because of recent warming trends.

Nature

• Scientists have observed climate-induced changes in at least 420 physical processes and biological species or communities.

Expected climate change impacts for India

Changes in weather patterns

Cyclonic disturbances

Sea-level rise

Changes in agriculture yields

Changes in fresh water supply

Impacts on forests and natural ecosystems

Impacts on human health

Mapping vulnerability : climate change

in India

Source :Expected effects (of expected climate change) for India: examples

(INCCA 2010)Source: Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change

and globalization in India

Climate change impacts for India

India and climate change

Predicted change in Temperature (Degrees) by 2085 Predicted change in Rainfall (mm) by 2085 Source: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)

• Simulations indicate an all-round warming, associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, over the Indian subcontinent. The rise in annual mean surface air temperature by the 2030s ranges from 1.7°C to 2.0°C.

• There is considerable geographical variation in the magnitude of changes for both temperature as well as rainfall

• Northwestern India is likely to become drier, while northeastern India is likely to become much wetter, The temperature increase in northwestern India is also much more than that in the northeast.

Risks to Ecosystems & People in India

• SouSSouc

Sea level rise -

Relocation of

population /Climate

induced refugees

Himalayan

Glacier melt –

Flows in Indus

and Ganga at

Risk

• Increased Incidence of Natural Calamities

• Increase in stress to human & other Life forms

• Increased Probability of Trans-boundary issues

Variability in

monsoons –

affecting crop

production

Erosion of coastal areas

due to Sea Level rise

and Extreme Weather

Source: Mohan & Sinha 2010

Climate change impacts in IndiaWhat the INCCA Report has found

Warmer seasons

•Avg. temp rise: 2.0 deg C predicted

•1.0-4.0 deg C at extreme ranges

Increased annual precipitation

•lower frequency of rainy days; increased intensity

Cyclonic disturbances

•lower frequency; increased intensity

•increased risk of storm surges

Sea-level rise

•1.3 mm/year on average

Fresh water supply

• High variability predicted in water yields (from 50% increase to 40-50% reduction)

• 10-30% increased risk of floods; increased risks of droughts

Climate Change impacts in IndiaWhat the INCCA Report has found

Forests and natural ecosystems

• Increased net primary productivity

• Shifting forest borders; species mix; negative impact on livelihoods and biodiversity

Human health

• Higher morbidity and mortality from heat stress and vector/water-borne diseases

• Expanded transmission window for malaria

Reduced agricultural productivity

• Sharp fall in land productivity of 17% farmers

• General decrease in productivity of crops; however, cash crops like coconut may increase

• Crops earlier grown in lower or mid-Himalayan regions are now grown at higher altitudes

• Marine fisheries are likely to be impacted as the area of spawning shifts to higher latitudes

India’s actions for climate changeIndia’s actions for climate change

Climate Change impacts in India

Extreme Heat Changing Rainfall Patterns

What we know

• India is already experiencing a warming climate.

What could happen

• Unusual and unprecedented spells of hot weather are expected to occur far more frequently and cover much larger areas.

What can be done

• With built-up urban areas rapidly becoming “heat-islands”, urban planners will need to adopt measures to counteract this effect.

What we know

• A decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s has already been observed. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has also increased.

What could happen

• A 2°C rise in the world’s average temperatures will make India’s summer monsoon highly unpredictable

What can be done

• Improvements in hydro-meteorological systems for weather forecasting

• Installation of flood warning systems can help people move out of harm’s way before a weather-related disaster strikes.


Droughts Groundwater

What we know

• Droughts have major consequences. In 1987 and 2002-2003, droughts affected more than half of India’s crop area and led to a huge fall in crop production.

What could happen

• Droughts are expected to be more frequent in some areas, especially in north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

• Crop yields are expected to fall significantly because of extreme heat by the 2040s.

What can be done

• Investments in R&D for the development of drought-resistant crops can help reduce some of the negative impacts.

What we know

• More than 60% of India’s agriculture is rain-fed, making the country highly dependent on groundwater.

What could happen

• Falling water tables can be expected to reduce further on account of increasing demand for water from a growing population, more affluent life styles, as well as from the services sector and industry.

What can be done

• The efficient use of ground water resources will need to be incentivized.


Glacier Melt Sea level rise

What we know

• Himalayan glaciers - where a substantial part of the moisture is supplied by the summer monsoon - have been retreating over the past century.

What could happen

• At 2.5°C warming, melting glaciers and the loss of snow cover over the Himalayas are expected to threaten the stability and reliability of northern India’s primarily glacier-fed rivers, particularly the Indus and the Brahmaputra.

What can be done

• Major investments in water storage capacity would be needed to benefit from increased river flows in spring and compensate for lower flows later on

What we know

• Mumbai has the world’s largest population exposed to coastal flooding, with large parts of the city built on reclaimed land, below the high-tide mark. Rapid and unplanned urbanization further increases the risks.

What could happen

• Sea-level rise and storm surges would lead to saltwater intrusion in the coastal areas, impacting agriculture, degrading groundwater quality, contaminating drinking water

What can be done

• Building codes will need to be strictly enforced and urban planning will need to prepare for climate-related disasters.


Agriculture and food security Energy Security

What we know

• Rising temperatures with lower rainfall at the end of the growing season have caused a significant loss in India’s rice production. Without climate change, average rice yields could have been almost 6% higher (75 million tons in absolute terms).

What could happen

• Seasonal water scarcity, rising temperatures, and intrusion of sea water would threaten crop yields, jeopardizing the country’s food.

What can be done

• Crop diversification, and improved soil management practices, together with the development of drought-resistant crops.

What we know

• Climate-related impacts on water resources can undermine the two dominant forms of power generation in India - hydropower and thermal power generation - both of which depend on adequate water supplies to function

What could happen

• The increasing variability and long-term decreases in river flows can pose a major challenge to hydropower plants.

What can be done

• Projects will need to be planned taking into account climatic risks.


Water Security Health

What we know

• Many parts of India are already experiencing water stress.

What could happen

• An increase in variability of monsoon rainfall is expected to increase water shortages in areas.

What can be done

• Improvements in irrigation systems, water harvesting techniques, and more-efficient agricultural water management can offset some of these risks.

What we know

• Climate change is expected to have major health impacts in India- with the poor likely to be affected most severely. Malaria and other vector-borne diseases, along with and diarrheal infections, are likely to spread into areas where colder temperatures had previously limited

What could happen

• Health systems will need to be strengthened in identified hotspots.

What can be done

• Improvements in hydro-meteorological systems for weather forecasting and the installation of flood warning systems can help people move out of harm’s way before a weather-related disaster strikes.


Migration and conflict

What we know

• South Asia is a hotspot for the migration of people from disaster-affected or degraded areas to other national and international regions.

• The Indus and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins are major trans boundary rivers, and increasing demand for water is already leading to tensions among countries over water sharing.

What could happen

• Climate change impacts on agriculture and livelihoods can increase the number of climate refugees.

What can be done

• Regional cooperation on water issues will be needed.

Projected Climate TrendsBhubaneswar

• Increase in Average Annual Rainfall

• Max increase March - May

• Increase in Average Annual Temp.

• Max increase in temp March - May

• Probable decrease in frequency of

cyclonic disturbances but increase in

intensity (June – Sept)

Climate trends from INCCA 4x4 Assessment Report for 2030s

Source: ICLEI – ACCCRN Process Learning from 3 Indian Cities – Presentaton by Sunandan Tiwari

Risk AssessmentBhubaneswar

Urban system

Impacts of climate change LikelihoodConsequ

enceRisk

scoreRisk

status

Water supply

Increased precipitation disrupts/ damages water supply infrastructure

3 3 9 Medium

Increased precipitation causes increased incidences of urban flooding / water logging

4 3 12 High

Increased temperatures will lead to increased demand for water thereby posing additional stress on the supply system

5 3 15 High

HousingIncreased precipitation causes greater health risks 4 3 12 High

Increased temperature causes greater fire risks 4 2 8 Medium

Energy

Increased precipitation disrupts / damages power supply infrastructure

4 2 8 Medium

Increased temperature leads to increased energy demand will increase, causing a shortage

4 3 12 High

EcosystemThere will be additional stress on the ecosystems e.g. the water bodies may dry up

4 2 8 Medium

Increased precipitation impactBhubaneswar

(Water logging & disrupted infrastructure)

Increased temperature impactBhubaneswar(Shortage of water supply)

Increased precipitation impactBhubaneswar

(Health risks)

Increased temperature impactBhubaneswar(Fire risks)

Increased temperature impactBhubaneswar

(Disruption of power supply)

Increased temperature impactBhubaneswar

(Ecosystem stress – water bodies)

Vulnerability HotspotsBhubaneswar

Vulnerabilities

• Impacted by water logging and

disrupted infrastructure

• Impacted by shortage of water

• Prone to health and fire risks

• Prone to shortage of power

supply and disrupted

infrastructure

• Faces additional stress on

ecosystems

Population impacted

• Commercial units

• Urban residents

• Slum residents

• Women

• Children and elderly people

• Industries

• Institutions

• Students

Proposed resilience actionsBhubaneswar

▪ Bye laws should include climate change aspects

▪ Encouraged use of energy efficient lighting

▪ Provision of green belt in the city plan

▪ Drainage system should be provided for residential areas

▪ Training and capacity building on fire fighting and fire prevention should be provided

Energy efficiency in steel re-rolling mills

Energy efficiency in steel re-rolling mills

• Duration: 2004-2012

• Implementing Partners: UNDP and Ministry of Steel

• Budget: Total: US$ 14.03 million

• Global Environment Facility: US$ 6.75 million

• Steel Development Fund, GoI: US$ 7.28 million

Results

• Identification and popularization of 10 technology packages for intervention in the re-heating furnace and 19 eco-tech options to enable greater energy efficiency in rolling mill processes

• Significant savings through implementation of energy-efficient technologies in 29 SRRM units resulting in savings of 87,819,968 MJ of energy and reduction of 131,738 tCO2.

• Post commissioning measurements have been conducted in 16 of them. This has resulted in:

• Saving of 10,077 kilo litres furnace oil• 6,345 tons of coal• 13,706,205 KWh (units) of electricity

• Greater awareness generated through training and capacity building programmes to internalize energy efficiency and conservation measures

Wind power for captive use

Company State Bank of India

Location of intervention Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat

Type of intervention Wind energy

• SBI had initiated “Green Banking” activities in the year 2007 by way of

putting in place a comprehensive board approved policy

• Under this intervention 10 wind mills were commissioned in the states of

Maharashtra (6), Tamil Nadu (3) and Gujarat (1) - Total 15 MW

• Total investment incurred: INR 100 crores in March, 2010

• Total generation in FY 2012-13: 51 million units (kWh)

• Estimated pay back period: 10 years

Resource energy efficiency optimization through awarenessdrive and technological innovations

Company KPIT

Location of intervention Pune, Maharashtra

Type of intervention Reduction in fresh water consumption through technological innovations

• Revamp of sprinkler system by eliminating the use of fresh water for gardening

purposes

• Detailed survey carried out for identifying and arresting water leakages in the

premises

• Water pressure adjusted at different outlets for minimizing wastage of water

• Concept of dry toilets for reduction in consumption of water

• Employee engagement and education through posters, screen savers etc.

Savings of water consumption by 22% i.e. 14,500 cum. per annum.

Waste to Energy

Company Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL)

Location of intervention Nasik, Maharashtra

Type of intervention Waste to energy from gas produced though ETP’s sludge digestion

• Sludge Digester was installed in the ETP. This facilitates anaerobic digestion,

thereby converting a part of the organic waste into Methane gas. Methane gas is

then fed into the engine for generating electricity and used to power street lights.

• Biogas plant capacity is around 2500 kg/day

• Gas produced is approximately 175 m³ per day which is equivalent to 78 kg of

LPG or 315 kWh per day of electricity

• Total investment incurred: INR 56 lakh in March, 2013

• Estimated savings through project lifetime: INR 100 lakhs

Rooftop Solar PV

Company Mahindra Lifespaces

Location of intervention Chennai, Tamil Nadu

Type of intervention Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) based power generation

• Realizing the uncertainty in electricity supply and to lessen dependency

on power utilities, Mahindra Lifespaces installed a 75 kW Solar PV plant

at their site

• Diesel generators were used earlier but frequent diesel price hikes were

increasing cost of generation. They also caused air and noise pollution

• Estimated annual generation: 116,000 kWh

• Estimated saving in electricity bills: 8%

Indira Paryavaran Bhawan

▪ The Indira Paryavaran Bhawan is a project of MoEF&CC for Construction of New office Building at Aliganj, Jor Bagh Road, New Delhi

▪ The basic design concept is to make a “net zero energy” green building

▪ The building is targeted to achieve LEED India Platinum Rating and GRIHA 5 star rating

▪ Many energy conservation measures are adopted to optimize the overall design load:– High Efficiency Solar Panels are planned to achieve Net Zero criteria

– Energy efficient T-5 and LED fixtures innovative chilled beam system for cooling

– Pre-cooling of fresh air from toilet exhaust using heat recovery wheel in order to reduce load on chiller plant

Source: www.indiraparyavaranbhawan.com

Indira Paryavaran Bhawan

– Water cooled chillers

– Double skin air handling units with variable frequency drives

– Geo thermal heat exchange technology for heat rejection from Air-conditioning system

– Innovative energy saving regenerative lifts

– Water conservation measures like:▪ Low discharge water fixtures

▪ Dual flushing cistern

▪ Low demand plants in landscaping

▪ Drip irrigation system for green areas

▪ Make up water tank for chiller plant, irrigation

▪ Rain water harvesting system

Health issues identified by the Prime Minister’s National Action Plan on Climate Change in India

▪ Provision of enhanced public health care services

▪ Assessment of increased burden of disease due to climate change

▪ Providing high-resolution weather and climate data to study the regional pattern of diseases

▪ Development of a high-resolution health impact mode at the state level

▪ GIS mapping of access routes to health facilities in areas prone to climatic extremes

Health issues identified by the Prime Minister’s National Action Plan on Climate Change in India

▪ Prioritization of geographic areas based on epidemiological data and the extent of vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change

▪ Ecological study of air pollutants and pollen (as the triggers of asthma and respiratory diseases) and how they are affected by climate change

▪ Studies on the response of disease vectors to climate change

▪ Enhanced provision of primary, secondary and tertiary health care facilities and implementation of public health measures, including vector control, sanitation, and clean drinking water supply.

Source: www.pmindia.nic.in

Theoretical contexts of Climate Change and National Security

Examine the issues and challenges and consequences of Climate Change to post-colonial societies and their impact;Asian national security contexts and responses of India to the imperatives of global Climate Change;Analyze the Indian context of Climate Change and National Security deriving its links from energy security, security of the littorals and development priorities


Five Propositions:

• Theoretical constructions of Climate Change have ‘securitized’ the issue of Climate Change warranting a institutional-security response for a systemic imbalance that needs responses in policy and governance;

• National Security concerns of individual states vary widely on Climate change exhibiting the ‘divide’ between the post-industrial world and the developing world of ‘rising economic’ powers;

• Climate Change is an ‘interdependent construct’ that links social-economic development; post-colonial apprehensions and the resource contention;

• Climate Change impacts on Human security, National security and the ecological balance affecting food and water security of spillover with regional-global effects;

• The Climate change debate has no consensus in its substantive detail although there is now growing unanimity on the procedural


Three Theoretical constructions are evident in the scholarship of Climate Change and National Security:

a) Security Theory or Securitization

b) Social Constructivism and Climate Change

c) Critical Theory-Green Theory and Climate Change

Theoretical constructions

▪ Security Theory or Securitization of Climate Change: Process outcomes of “successful securitization of a transnational issue as an existential threat justifying an extraordinary (usually military) response” Ole Waever 1998;

▪ Securitization is conceptually challenged by i) What does it mean to be secure? ii) Who is doing the securing? iii) Who or what is being secured?

▪ Securitization is process-driven by a) Identities—the way entities label; b)norms-rules socially enforced; c) cultures—the way entities classify, codify & communicate—

▪ Therefore what constitutes a paradigm of Climate Change—securitized by the dominant culture does not conform to other cultures

▪ Securitization by the developed world of Climate Change suits to their agenda of focused military responses in the realm of (Military Operations Other than War MOOTW)—but in the regional-global spillover spectrum they unintended, diffuse, trans-boundary, operate over long time-scales, implicate a wide range of actors, and require painstaking negotiation and cooperation among a wide range of stakeholders.

Security Theory or Securitization of Climate Change

▪ Realists and Neorealists have no conceptual appreciation on climate change interalia with its human security consequences—as they dismiss it as a “construction” of a transnational challenge having secondary and tertiary consequences;

▪ Realists and Neorealists however advocate the employment of military force—to secure the state-centric interests-- should the unintended consequences of protracted climate change triggers political conflict, refugee flows, contestation of resources and spillover of border and boundary issues into the realm of inter-state conflict or regional conflict;

▪ Securitization transforms a full range of issues from its non-politicized entity to its politicization—triggering a governmental decision of intervention to its culmination of an contingency leveraging military and security prioritization.

Security Theory or Securitization of Climate Change

Securitization of Climate Change diverts focus from the real challenges

a) Addressing the complex problems of Human security and developmental issues by polarizing the debate to a unitary world-view while the challenges of human security are varied and complex in the developing world;

b) Imperative to ameliorating the three aspects of human security food security, water security and environmental refugees;

c) Human security challenges emerging from Climate Change has a sound response in Governance and civilian regime capacity rather than an enforced military-operational response;

d) Non-military responses are evident in the form of regional cooperative frameworks that involves the stakeholders of civil society, the local communities and the governance process;

e) Nationally appropriate governance responses need to be linked with the global response to Climate Change as it would address the uniqueness in each regional setting.

Social Constructivism and Climate Change

▪ Constructivism envisages the world as coming into being—in a word, constructed—through an interactive process between agents (individuals, states, non-state actors) and objective elements of our physical reality

▪ Constructivist definition of security "an action or sequence of events that (1) threatens drastically and over a relatively brief span of time to degrade the quality of life for the inhabitants of a state; or (2) threatens significantly to narrow the range of policy choices available to a government of a state, or to private, nongovernmental entities (persons, groups, corporations) within a state (Ullman 1983);

▪ Social Constructivism envisages that climate changes are a "threat multiplier" and activism is needed to change peoples' attitudes from apathy into action;

▪ Constructivism envisages the enablement of equity and sustainability in Climate Change and contends against the securitization process;

▪ Constructivism challenges the systemic realities of climate change while offering emancipative agenda for societal and economic transformation through better governance and human security based on human dignity and human development.

Critical Theory-Green Theory and Climate Change

▪ Critical Theory has an ambient platform that provided derivatives to a Green Theory in IR and provides a rationale on Climate Change and sustainable development

▪ Critical theory rejects the piecemeal, ‘problem-solving’ approaches that fail to address social and economic structures of domination perpetuated by global hegemony;

▪ Green Theory espouses on the critical issues of environmental domination and marginalization--the domination of non-human nature, the neglect of the needs of future generations, and the skewed distribution of ecological risks among different social classes, states, and regions;

▪ Green Theory repudiates the lopsided frames of causes and consequences of Climate Change with an advocacy of equity and sustainability;

▪ Green Theory is premised on the quest to achieve to reduce ecological risks across the board; preventing unfair externalization and displacement, through space and time onto innocent third parties.

Climate Change and Post-colonial societies

▪ Post-colonial societies are viewed in the global prism to be catalysts of violent climate change owing

to persistence with the ‘old economy’;

▪ Post-colonial societies are urged to abandon ‘unsustainable’ economics and energy strategies including

mass agriculture that is said to be methane emitter towards better green agriculture;

▪ Post-colonial societies are however in the realm of ‘resources’ and ‘technology’ deficit in the

enablement towards new strategies that would ameliorate ravages in the environment;

▪ Post-colonial attitudes towards industrialization and economic growth has more primary priority

rather than the impetus for sustainable development;

▪ Imperatives to levitate the social-economic growth patterns at any expense

▪ Weaker Governance and institutional capacities are the critical fault lines to tackle violent climate

change consequences;

▪ Fundamental difference in approaches: Developed world preference for consensus based global

response versus nationally appropriate state-centric responses preferred by the developing countries.

Asian national security contexts- India and imperatives of global Climate Change

▪ Asian national security contexts are based on the realist-monolith conception of security—since state-centric security conception predominates;

▪ National economic and industrial development spread on a time-spatial context warrants—rapid economic industrial growth; rise in GDP; cumulative accrual of Comprehensive National Power; aggressive mercantilism and aggressive strategic competition;

▪ Asian economic and industrial growth is mandated for leveraging higher standards of lives, ameliorate the social-economic conditions of life of the people that entails high levels of carbon emission ;

▪ Reluctance to join the global consensus on ‘cap and trade’;

▪ Would not sacrifice growth for climate change mitigation;

▪ Asian security contexts demand that developed world should address the climate change mitigation on the issue of the disproportionate share of environmental ravages on a long linear spatial-time contexts

Asian national security contexts-- India and imperatives of Global Climate Change

▪ State-centric policy elucidation and state-controlled policy formulation for Climate change mitigation—plagued by inefficiency, corruption, bureaucratic inertia and lack of political will;

▪ Equity and responsibility are the planks of Climate Change for India;

▪ Agreement on Climate Change would be based on a balanced assessment of development needs and strategic interests—backed by subsidies and technology transfers for compliance for international standards of Climate Change;

▪ Asian economic and institutional capacities have come a long way in developing resilience in withstanding violent environmental changes;

▪ Incremental capacity-building in institutional capital, innovation, human and material resources and new direction to tackle climate-change induced natural-physical, social-economic and civic-political challenges and problems;

Matrices of Climate-Change threats and Challenges-The Asian Context

▪ Accelerated glacier meltdown and runoff of river waters complicates existing river-water sharing arrangements resulting in treaties abrogation and triggering of wars; (e.g. India-Pakistan Indus River Treaty) –Himalayan glaciers meltdown is now being disputed

▪ Loss of littoral land and rising sea-levels resulting in population displacement and increases trans-border illegal migration into contiguous areas triggering ethnic conflicts based on prevalent fault lines of conflict (Bangladesh-India’s Northeast)

▪ Submergence of islands in Indian Ocean and the displacement of populations resulting ‘environmental refugees’ settlement challenges; (Maldives, Mauritius, etc)

▪ Opening of the Arctic North-West passage enhances Russia’s Arctic geopolitics resulting in new preferred shipping routes -- affecting the strategic balance ; nuclear submarines easier transit between the two oceans;

▪ Various physical geographical changes in the Himalayan region could lead to large-scale relocation of military installations of India and China with similar naval and littoral infrastructure being redeployed owing to sea-level rises.

Matrices of Climate-Change threats and Challenges-The Southern Asian Context

▪ India-Pakistan Theatre: Jammu Kashmir—high risk in Himalayan glacier meltdown (now disputed) medium possibilities of extreme weather—increased risk of war due to water sharing disputes

▪ India-China theatre: High probabilities of glacial meltdown—medium possibilities of extreme weather—risk of natural disasters—diversion of river waters and trans-border spillage or flooding due to high-rise dam constructions or artificial lake storage;

▪ India-Bangladesh Border: High probabilities of river overflows due to trans-Himalayan climate changes-high probabilities of rising sea-levels and mass displacement of people—high probabilities of extreme weather and greater risk of mass displacement of people as refugees;

▪ India-Sri Lanka—Rising sea-levels and mass displacement of Tamils from Northeast to India

▪ India-Nepal: High probabilities of glacial meltdown—natural disasters in the Trans-Himalayan region—triggering mass displacement of people into India

Indian contexts and linkages of Climate Change and National Security

▪ Indian contexts of Climate Change and economic growth does not conform to the broader Western apologia for drastic measures that calls for changes in prevalent patterns of economic-industrial growth that is now on the rise in India and much of Asia;

▪ Indian contexts of Climate Change and economic growth has a different ‘constructivist lens’ than the Western construction of ideational and material factors that in the first place was catastrophic in scope to the global environment;

▪ India contends and refutes the Western propositions of ‘blanket-globally enforceable’ Climate Change regimes that is lop-sided and flawed since Climate Change regimes from Rio to Copenhagen do not focus on the equity and balanced scope of development and the technological-enablement of the weaker economic states to cope the changes;

▪ India’s ‘securitization’ of Climate Change is both a primary and a secondary variable linked to the national security in its ‘traditional sense’; human security in the ‘comprehensive sense’

▪ Therefore India’s approaches to Climate Change is the fine balance of how it configures its turbulent Southern Asian-Indian Ocean Region and how it copes with its domestic development paradigm leveraging its own benchmark of sustainability.

Indian contexts of Climate Change and National Security

Critical impacts on India would be on the following:

i) Adverse impact on Indian agriculture with diminished returns reversing the high-input and high-yield farming operations—small and medium farmers would be ravaged—consequent starvation and greater social-civic tensions;

ii) Reversal of monsoons over the subcontinent affecting water tables, agriculture production-ravages of land and loss of subsoil;

iii) Rising Inequality—Increase in BPL-increase of public subsidies—rural surplus labor force-unemployed and in poverty;

iv) Energy use patterns; constraints on coal, oil and gas would cripple India’s economic growth and productivity with no credible alternatives to green economy;

v) Forced migration from other South Asian countries into India—triggering mass riots and ethnic invasions.


• India’s responses

a) Governance response: Imperatives that India has better governance and crisis response capacity—disparities in the various state machinery capabilities—problems of lack of professionalism, inefficiency, wastage, corruption

b) Infrastructure responses: Imperative to enhance infrastructure developments; critical resource shortfalls in India’s critical infrastructure; poor maintenance and lack of alternate infrastructure options

c) Economic redemption responses: Imperative on perspective planning that would balance traditional and non-traditional security challenges by optimal deployment of economic resources; Imperatives for better human security standards, food, water and health security standards

d) Technology development responses: Alternate energy technologies development—priorities for R & D investment in non-conventional energies;


India’s responses

e) Co-operation responses: Need to develop convergent civil-military interoperable plans and strategies to cope up with state failure, and extreme natural disasters

f) Integrated state-civil society responses: State-centric architecture are ineffective for climate change induced threats and challenges; imperatives for effective state-civil society coordination. Deployment of state machinery and effective backup by social and civic groups could result in better grass-root responses

g) Military Operations other than war MOOTW by India’s military—Imperatives for Indian Armed Forces for joint synergies and for constabulary and humanitarian operations—New capacities-amphibious and expeditionary capabilities need to be boosted along with prevalent coercive capabilities


India’s International responses:

h) India’s Climate Change-National Security stand cannot be ‘autarkic’ it has to be robust

to respond to the vagaries of the global discourse—yet maintain its ‘autonomy’;

i) India’s co-operation with the international community is vital since the reciprocity ofinternational technological, investments-subsidies would be forthcoming for a risingpower that is in a turbulent neighbourhood;

j) India would be the pivotal state that would be the ‘first respondent’ to the extremeweather and climate change patterns in the Indian Ocean Region– with its augmentedcivil-military capabilities for humanitarian relief missions, Indian entities state, non-state-civil society and the military would be catalytic in responding to state failures,state-implosions, ethnic invasions, refugee flows, Tsunami catastrophic incidents,starvation and river water disputes mitigating from severe climate change;

k) India’s Climate Change posture would thus be a deft balance that would account for:i) the Indian Ocean geopolitics that is in a flux; ii) catastrophic weather changes; iii)interplay of traditional and non-traditional challenges and perils; iv) the imperative tobuild its Human security paradigm and systemic resilience.

Thank you for Listening…

Education

014 Climate Change