World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2015-2019

World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight

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• Prospects• Technologies• Markets

More Modest Outlook for Global Land Rig Market in 2015-2019 Due to Current Low Oil Price EnvironmentGiven the current economic conditions, there is a more modest outlook for the land drilling rig market through to 2019. The recent decline in oil price is expected to result in a 19% drop in onshore wells drilled in 2015, with several operators having an-nounced planned reductions in expenditure. This expected fall in drilling activity is likely to have a significant impact on rig demand, with the global operational and active rig populations forecast to decline by 11% and 12% respectively in 2015.

Based on a scenario in which the oil price returns to pre-crisis levels of $70-80 per barrel in 2016, the number of operational rigs is expected to rise by 19% over 2015-2019 as drilling activity recovers. Asia-Pacific is expected to see the largest regional increase in capable fleet size, with 230 units forecast to be added in 2015-2019.

Increased well depths and drilling complexity have resulted in rising demand for high horsepower (HP) rigs, with the global number of active rigs rated over 1,250 HP having risen by 33% in 2010-2014. This trend is set to continue over the forecast period at a CAGR of 5%. More complex well drilling require-ments are also expected to drive an increase in expenditure on components such as top drives over the 2015-2019 period. An increase in the number of rigs being converted to AC power, as well as the use of technologies such as pad drilling, is expected as operators seek to maximise the efficiency of drilling operations.

The possibility of a further decline in oil price remains a potential downside risk to the forecast. Although the risk to conventional onshore drilling is lower, high Capex unconventional projects, including the use of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques could become uneconomic if the current economic conditions continue. In this event, demand for high HP rigs is likely to be impacted.

The report has been developed and expanded, following client feedback and extensive industry analysis, to include:

• Drivers, trends & themes – a discussion of the fundamentals that drive the exploration process, including those which impact the land drilling market.

• Manufacturing – detailed overview of the key elements of a land rig, the supply chain and sales process. Global analysis of the key rig equip-ment manufacturers operating in each regional rig component market. Rig equipment trends for top drive systems & rotary steerable systems, automation & AC power and pad drilling & walk-ing rigs. Land rig construction forecast.

• Regional drilling market – comprehensive summary at the regional level including: onshore wells drilled, rig fleet growth, active drilling rigs required and key trends in each region. Since producing the previous edition of the report, Douglas-Westwood has gained improved vis-ibility of core markets such as China, resulting in a 4% increase in the number of identified rigs.

• Regional competitive landscape of identified rigs – matrix of drilling contractors operating in each region, indicating the overall size, composi-tion and countries of operation of each contrac-tor’s fleet.

World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight

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• Market forecasts – comprehensive examination, analysis and ten-year view of the market, with historic data covering the period 2010-2014 and forecast data for 2015-2019, including: onshore wells drilled, rig fleet growth, active drilling rigs required and global trends.

Why purchase the World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast?The report includes the very latest market outlook based on DW Drilling & Production data and reflects the current low oil price environment.

DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services compa-nies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential reading for land rig contrac-tors, rig manufacturers, oilfield service companies, oil & gas operators and financial institutions wanting to better understand where and when to make invest-ment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

• Unique and proprietary data – DW maintains a unique global in-house database of rig fleets: the DW Land Rig Database, which is updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation – this involves discussions with a wide-range of companies including equipment manufacturers, engineering consultancies and private equity firms.

• Methodology – the rig demand model is based on drilling and production forecasts and the rigs identified in DW’s Land Rig Database, with assumptions fine-tuned using knowledge which DW has gained through extensive consultations with industry.

• Country-by-country analysis – comprehensive examination of 35 key countries, including: oil & gas production, onshore wells drilled, active drill-ing rigs required, forecast rig utilisation, invest-ment and key trends in each country, fleet capac-ity and features, plus the competitive landscape.

• Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points through-out.

ISBN - 978-1-910045-09-1

"The report dives deep into the market"

- Investment Bank (USA)

"The report is very valuable"- Manufacturing Company (Europe)

2015World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast

Prospects, Technologies, World Markets

2015-2019

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2015-2019By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Contents

Table of Contents

1 Summary & Conclusions ..........................................9Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 10Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 11

2 Drivers & Indicators .............................................. 12Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................ 13Energy Demand ........................................................................................................................... 14Exploration & Production ......................................................................................................... 15Oil & Gas Prices .......................................................................................................................... 16Oil & Gas Price Sensitivities .................................................................................................... 17Drilling, Complexity & Unconventional E&D ........................................................................ 18North American Land Fleet Evolution .................................................................................... 19Political Considerations: MENA ............................................................................................... 20Political Considerations: Local Content & Corruption ....................................................... 21

3 Manufacturing .......................................................... 22Overview: Key Elements of a Land Rig ................................................................................. 23Supply Chain & Sales Process ................................................................................................... 24Key Components: Manufacturers ............................................................................................ 25Rig Equipment: OEM Manufacturer Ranking ......................................................................... 26Global Top Drive Markets ......................................................................................................... 27Rig Equipment Trends: Top Drive Systems & Rotary Steerable Systems ......................... 28Rig Equipment Trends: Automation & AC Power ................................................................ 29Rig Equipment Trends: Pad Drilling & Walking Rigs ............................................................. 30Land Rig Additions Forecast ..................................................................................................... 31

4 Methodology ............................................................ 32Rig Data, Analysis & Assumptions ........................................................................................... 33Drilling & Production Forecast: Methodology ...................................................................... 34Differing Rig Counts ................................................................................................................... 35Country Analysis: Definitions ................................................................................................... 36Country Analysis: Key Metrics ................................................................................................. 38

5 Global Analysis ........................................................ 39Global Outlook ........................................................................................................................... 40Regional Rig Fleets ...................................................................................................................... 41Global Rig Fleet: Identified Drilling Rigs ................................................................................. 42

6 Asia Analysis ............................................................ 43Asia: Rig Supply and Demand ................................................................................................... 44Asia: Identified Rigs (Competitive Landscape) ...................................................................... 45Australia ........................................................................................................................................ 46China ............................................................................................................................................. 47India ............................................................................................................................................... 48Indonesia ....................................................................................................................................... 49Pakistan ......................................................................................................................................... 50Thailand ......................................................................................................................................... 51

7 Eastern Europe & FSU Analysis ........................... 52Eastern Europe & FSU: Rig Supply and Demand ................................................................... 53Eastern Europe & FSU: Identified Rigs (Competitive Landscape) ..................................... 54Azerbaijan ..................................................................................................................................... 55Kazakhstan.................................................................................................................................... 56Poland ............................................................................................................................................ 57Romania ........................................................................................................................................ 58Russia ............................................................................................................................................. 59

8 Latin America Analysis .......................................... 60Latin America: Rig Supply and Demand .................................................................................. 61Latin America: Identified Rigs (Competitive Landscape) ..................................................... 62Argentina ...................................................................................................................................... 63Brazil .............................................................................................................................................. 64Colombia ...................................................................................................................................... 65Ecuador ......................................................................................................................................... 66Mexico ........................................................................................................................................... 67Peru ............................................................................................................................................... 68Venezuela ...................................................................................................................................... 69


Contents

Table of Contents

9 MENA Analysis ....................................................... 70MENA: Rig Supply and Demand ............................................................................................... 71MENA: Identified Rigs (Competitive Landscape) .................................................................. 72Algeria ........................................................................................................................................... 73Egypt .............................................................................................................................................. 74Iran ................................................................................................................................................. 75Iraq ................................................................................................................................................. 76Kuwait ........................................................................................................................................... 77Libya ............................................................................................................................................... 78Oman ............................................................................................................................................. 79Saudi Arabia ................................................................................................................................. 80Syria ............................................................................................................................................... 81Turkey ............................................................................................................................................ 82United Arab Emirates (UAE) .................................................................................................... 83Yemen ............................................................................................................................................ 84

10 North America Analysis ..................................... 85North America: Rig Supply and Demand ............................................................................... 86North America: Identified Rigs (Competitive Landscape) .................................................. 87Canada .......................................................................................................................................... 88USA ................................................................................................................................................ 89

11 Sub-Saharan Africa Analysis ............................... 90Sub-Saharan Africa: Rig Supply and Demand ......................................................................... 91Sub-Saharan Africa: Identified Rigs (Competitive Landscape) ............................................ 92Gabon ............................................................................................................................................ 93Nigeria ........................................................................................................................................... 94Sudan and South Sudan .............................................................................................................. 95

12 Western Europe Analysis ................................... 96Western Europe: Rig Supply and Demand ............................................................................. 97Western Europe: Identified Rigs (Competitive Landscape) ................................................ 98

13 Appendix ................................................................ 99Data and Text Conventions ....................................................................................................100


Contents

Figures

Figure 1: Global – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .................................................................................... 10Figure 2: Active Drilling Rig Count by Region 2010-2019 ..................................................................... 10Figure 3: Primary Energy Consumption by Region ..................................................................................... 14Figure 4: Onshore Production Shortfall 2000-2013 .................................................................................. 14Figure 5: IHS CERA Upstream Cost Index 2000-2014 (Q3) ............................................................... 15Figure 6: Annual Brent Spot Oil Price Forecast ........................................................................................... 16Figure 7: Annual Natural Gas Price .................................................................................................................... 16Figure 8: Relative Sensitivities of Various Markets to Changes in Oil & Gas Prices ................... 17Figure 9: A well being drilled horizontally, engaging in fracking .......................................................... 18Figure 10: USA Available vs. Active Land Rigs, 1988-2014 .................................................................. 19Figure 11: Drilling Markets Affected by the Arab Spring ......................................................................... 20Figure 12: Local Content and Corruption in MENA Countries .......................................................... 21Figure 13: Key Elements of a Land Rig .............................................................................................................. 23Figure 14: Land Drilling Supply Chain ............................................................................................................... 24Figure 15: Rig Equipment Manufacturer Ranking ......................................................................................... 26Figure 16: Pad Drilling ................................................................................................................................................ 30Figure 17: Typical Drilling Pad ................................................................................................................................ 30Figure 18: Land Rig Construction Forecast by Region, 2008-2017.................................................... 31Figure 19: Comparison of Historic Rig Counts, Saudi Arabia ............................................................. 35Figure 20: Usable Fleet vs. Operating vs. Drilling, Saudi Arabia ........................................................... 35Figure 21: UAE – Rig Fleet and Implied Utilisation .................................................................................... 36Figure 22: UAE – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .................................... 37Figure 23: Global – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................. 40Figure 24: Global – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational ............................................................................ 40Figure 25: Number and Specification of Identified Drilling Rigs in Each Country ...................... 42Figure 26: Asia – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ...................................................................................... 44Figure 27: Asia – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational ................................................................................. 44Figure 28: Australasia – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ........................................................................ 46Figure 29: Australia – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................ 46Figure 30: China – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................... 47Figure 31: China – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .................................. 47Figure 32: India – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ..................................................................................... 48Figure 33: India – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .................................... 48Figure 34: India – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ..................................................................................... 49Figure 35: India – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .................................... 49

Figure 36: Pakistan – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .............................................................................. 50Figure 37: Pakistan – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................. 50Figure 38: Pakistan – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .............................................................................. 51Figure 39: Pakistan – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................. 51Figure 41: Eastern Europe & FSU – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ............................................... 53Figure 40: Eastern Europe & FSU – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational .......................................... 53Figure 42: Azerbaijan – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ......................................................................... 55Figure 43: Azerbaijan – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ........................ 55Figure 44: Kazakhstan – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ........................................................................ 56Figure 45: Kazakhstan – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ....................... 56Figure 46: Poland – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................. 57Figure 47: Poland – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................ 57Figure 48: Romania – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ............................................................................ 58Figure 49: Romania – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................ 58Figure 50: Russia – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .................................................................................. 59Figure 51: Russia – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................. 59Figure 53: Latin America – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................. 61Figure 52: Latin America – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational............................................................. 61Figure 54: Argentina – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .......................................................................... 63Figure 55: Argentina – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type.......................... 63Figure 56: Brazil – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .................................................................................... 64Figure 57: Brazil – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................... 64Figure 58: Colombia – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .......................................................................... 65Figure 59: Colombia – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ......................... 65Figure 60: Ecuador – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .............................................................................. 66Figure 61: Ecuador – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................. 66Figure 62: Mexico – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ............................................................................... 67Figure 63: Mexico – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................... 67Figure 64: Peru – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ..................................................................................... 68Figure 65: Peru – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ..................................... 68Figure 66: Venezuela – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ......................................................................... 69Figure 67: Venezuela – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ......................... 69Figure 69: MENA – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................ 71Figure 68: MENA – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational ............................................................................ 71Figure 70: Algeria – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................ 73


Contents

Figures

Figure 71: Algeria – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................... 73Figure 72: Egypt – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................... 74Figure 73: Egypt – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................... 74Figure 74: Iran – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ....................................................................................... 75Figure 75: Iran – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ...................................... 75Figure 76: Iraq – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ....................................................................................... 76Figure 77: Iraq – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ...................................... 76Figure 78: Kuwait – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................. 77Figure 79: Kuwait – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................ 77Figure 80: Libya – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .................................................................................... 78Figure 81: Libya – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................... 78Figure 82: Oman – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................. 79Figure 83: Oman – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................. 79Figure 84: Saudi Arabia – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .................................................................... 80Figure 85: Saudi Arabia – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................... 80Figure 86: Syria – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ..................................................................................... 81Figure 87: Syria – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .................................... 81Figure 88: Turkey – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................. 82Figure 89: Turkey – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................ 82Figure 90: Australasia – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ........................................................................ 83Figure 91: Australia – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................ 83Figure 92: Yemen – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ................................................................................. 84Figure 93: Yemen – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ................................ 84Figure 95: North America – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .............................................................. 86Figure 94: North America – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational.......................................................... 86Figure 96: Canada – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ............................................................................... 88Figure 97: Canada – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .............................. 88Figure 98: USA – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ..................................................................................... 89Figure 99: USA – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .................................... 89Figure 101: Sub-Saharan Africa – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .................................................... 91Figure 100: Sub-Saharan Africa – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational ............................................... 91Figure 102: Gabon – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation .............................................................................. 93Figure 103: Gabon – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................. 93Figure 104: Nigeria – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ............................................................................. 94Figure 105: Nigeria – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type ............................ 94

Figure 106: Sudan and South Sudan – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ......................................... 95Figure 107: Sudan and S. Sudan – Estimated Split of Market Share by Contractor & Type .. 95Figure 109: Western Europe – Rig Fleet and Drilling Utilisation ......................................................... 97Figure 108: Western Europe – Wells Drilled vs. Rigs Operational .................................................... 97


Contents

Tables

Table 1: Global Identified Rig Fleet and Implied Utilisation .................................................................... 40Table 2: Regional Rig Fleets ..................................................................................................................................... 41Table 3: Asia Identified Rigs .................................................................................................................................... 45Table 4: Australia – Fleet HP .................................................................................................................................. 46Table 5: China – Fleet HP ........................................................................................................................................ 47Table 6: India – Fleet HP .......................................................................................................................................... 48Table 7: India – Fleet HP .......................................................................................................................................... 49Table 8: Pakistan – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 50Table 9: Pakistan – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 51Table 10: Eastern Europe & FSU Identified Rigs ........................................................................................... 54Table 11: Azerbaijan – Fleet HP ........................................................................................................................... 55Table 12: Kazakhstan – Fleet HP .......................................................................................................................... 56Table 13: Poland – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 57Table 14: Romania – Fleet HP ............................................................................................................................... 58Table 15: Russia – Fleet HP..................................................................................................................................... 59Table 16: Latin America Identified Rigs ............................................................................................................. 62Table 17: Argentina – Fleet HP ............................................................................................................................. 63Table 18: Brazil – Fleet HP ...................................................................................................................................... 64Table 19: Colombia – Fleet HP ............................................................................................................................. 65Table 20: Ecuador – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................ 66Table 21: Mexico – Fleet HP .................................................................................................................................. 67Table 22: Peru – Fleet HP ........................................................................................................................................ 68Table 23: Venezuela – Fleet HP ............................................................................................................................ 69Table 24: MENA Identified Rigs ............................................................................................................................ 72Table 25: Algeria – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 73Table 26: Egypt – Fleet HP ...................................................................................................................................... 74Table 27: Iran – Fleet HP .......................................................................................................................................... 75Table 28: Iraq – Fleet HP ......................................................................................................................................... 76Table 29: Kuwait – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 77Table 30: Libya – Fleet HP ....................................................................................................................................... 78Table 31: Oman – Fleet HP .................................................................................................................................... 79Table 32: Saudi Arabia – Fleet HP ....................................................................................................................... 80Table 33: Syria – Fleet HP........................................................................................................................................ 81Table 34: Turkey – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 82Table 35: Australia – Fleet HP ............................................................................................................................... 83

Table 36: Yemen – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 84Table 37: North America Identified Rigs .......................................................................................................... 87Table 38: Canada – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................. 88Table 39: USA – Fleet HP ........................................................................................................................................ 89Table 40: Sub-Saharan Africa Identified Rigs .................................................................................................. 92Table 41: Gabon – Fleet HP ................................................................................................................................... 93Table 42: Nigeria – Fleet HP .................................................................................................................................. 94Table 43: Sudan and South Sudan – Fleet HP ............................................................................................... 95Table 44: Western Europe Identified Rigs ....................................................................................................... 98


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World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2015-2019