8
World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 energy business insight e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore Prospects Technologies Markets © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 40 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Market Forecast: By Asset Type Chapter 5 : Asset Integrity Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expenditure ($ billions) Expenditure to total $ bn over the 2015-2019 period. Refineries and Petrochemicals to ac- count for % of forecast expenditure. CAGR from 2015-2019: % Refineries; % Petrochemicals; % Gas processing; % LNG. Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019 Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 The downstream market for Asset Integrity is similar to the Asset Services market – it is dominated by expenditure on petrochemi- cal plants and refineries, which account for % of total expenditure over 2015-2019, in large part due to the sheer size of the installed base. An estimated $ bn and $ bn is to be spent on petrochemical and refinery facili- ties over the next five years. LNG and gas processing are much smaller market sectors with combined expenditure totalling almost $ bn. However, LNG spend will be in- creasing at the fastest rate: a CAGR of % over the 2015-2019 period. Similarly to Asset Services, the large growth in LNG Asset Integrity expenditure can be attributed to the increase in LNG facilities in regions such as Australia and North America. $ bn $ bn 2015 2019 Total © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 31 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Supply Chain – Middle East Chapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology The Middle East is characterised by operators awarding multiple contracts direct to lots of different small companies, with the aim of achieving perceived value for money. Bundling is still uncommon. Whilst infrastructure is ageing, the concept of fabric maintenance has still not been fully incorporated by the industry. In addition, much of the maintenance work is carried out in-house. EPC contractors (brownfield and greenfield) contract fabric mainte- nance and other specialist service providers for services such as the preparation and application of spe- cialist coatings on modification and newbuild work. The Middle Eastern market is char- acterised by many local providers across all service lines. NOTE: This supply chain is intended to illustrate the most common routes to market for the main service lines. The companies in each box are intended to be indicative key market players not an exhaustive portrayal. Operators Consultancy Asset Integrity Contractors Integrated Services Individual Services O&M Contractors Inspection Contractors E&I Contractors Mechanical Contractors Fabric Maintenance Process Equip. Contractors Rotating Equip. Contractors EPC Contractors “The [business] culture is to give out multiple contracts to lots of different small companies. It’s a convoluted supply chain…It’s about value for money.” Engineering Services Company “In the Middle East I see a greater need for asset integrity and fabric maintenance. Scale of infrastructure and its age is as significant as anywhere. Integrity is a new concept across the region due to a number of unfortunate accidents that have focused attention onto asset integrity services.” Engineering Services Company © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 26 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Asset Lifecycle Chapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology Pre-FEED Studies and Conceptual Design Operations & Maintenance Modifications Decommissioning CAPEX Phase Liabilities OPEX Phase Commissioning and Start-up Construction FEED Maintenance: Ongoing inspection, repair and upkeep of downstream assets is a vital process within the downstream plant lifecycle. Maintenance services reduce operational costs over the long- term, maximise uptime of the facility and ensure the efficient running of all equipment within it. High ongoing levels of maintenance can also prolong the asset’s life; significantly pushing back the plant’s decommissioning date. Maintenance services are essential to ensure the asset is able to perform its required function effectively and efficiently whilst adhering to any health, safety and environmental regulations in place. Asset Services Asset Services encompass a number of service lines all implemented with the aim to reduce the operational cost and downtime of the various electrical, mechanical, rotating and process equipment that is vital to the smooth running of the facility. Mechanical Services Electrical & Instrumentation Fabric Maintenance Rotating Equipment Process equipment Asset Integrity Asset Integrity services aim to prolong the downstream lifecycle through the management and development of maintenance strategies, ensuring maximum plant uptime and an efficient maintenance schedule. Consultancy Asset Management Integrity Services The service lines covered in this report are split into two sections: “Product life-cycle is regulated by industry standards…which in turn affect clients’ requirements. Valves should serve 30 years, with regular maintenance typically every five years.” Oil & Gas Major The typical lifecycle of a downstream asset which demonstrates the occurrence of maintenance services. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 19 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output Chapter 2 : Drivers and Indicators The two most common petrochemical feedstocks are olefins and aromatics. The major hydrocarbon sources used in producing petrochemicals are obtained from gas processing and petroleum refining. The main yields from refining are gasoline, kerosene, distillate fuel and residual fuel. In 2014 US refineries produced 45% of their yield as gasoline, although yields can be altered in response to price. Figure 15: US Refinery Yield 2014 45% 10% 30% 3% 20% Figure 16: Petrochemical Feedstocks and Outputs Natural Gas Crude Oil Steam Cracker Methane Ethane Propane Butane Plastics Resins Fibers Textiles Elastomers Rubbers Solvents Coatings Dyes & Pigments Adhesives Chemicals Other Consumer Products Methanol Ethylene Propylene Butadiene Benzene Toulene Xylene Naptha Motor Gasoline Kerosene Jet Fuel Distillate Fuel Residual Fuel Other Refining Yields The chart shows the yield from US refiner- ies in 2014. Refiners can adjust product yields in response to changing product prices and other market conditions by varying refinery processes and the types of crude oil they choose to refine. The refinery output will also be determined by the com- plexity of the refinery; those with a catalytic converter are generally more complex and able to refine heavier crudes. The yields sum to more than 100% due to the processing gain from refining; the volume by which total output is greater than input for a given period of time. Dur- ing refining processes such as fluid catalytic cracking, volumes can increase when large, heavy molecules are broken into smaller and lighter molecules that take up more space. Petrochemical process The diagram shows some of the petro- chemical feedstocks and the consumer goods produced by them. The two most common petrochemical classes are olefins and aromatics. Olefins include ethylene, propylene and butadiene and can be used to produce industrial chemicals, plastics and rubber. Aromatics include benzene, toulene and xylene (BTX). The main hydrocarbon sources used in a petrochemical plant are either obtained from gas processing (methane, ethane, pro- pane, butane) or petroleum refining (naptha and BTX). Gas-produced ethane is typically the favoured feedstock across the petrochemi- cal industry due to lower costs. With the majority of European petrochemical plants focusing on naphtha-based cracking, this has placed pressure on European plants in recent years. However, the recent crude oil price downturn has prompted a sharp decline in the price of naphtha. Ethane had an almost tenfold advantage over naphtha at the start of 2014. This had decreased to less than twofold by December 2014, benefiting Eu- ropean petrochemical plants by increasing their margins. Although, these benefits may be short lived depending on the longevity of oil price decline. “Margins are high currently, but it really depends on the equipment in the refinery and the complexity. The catalytic cracker is the most complex part of the refinery” Integrated Downstream Operator Operator budgets tighten, but Downstream Maintenance spend still sees rise Between 2015 and 2019, global downstream asset maintenance spend is expected to total $322 billion (bn), an increase of 12% when compared to the previous five-year period. In 2014, expenditure totalled $63bn for the world’s global downstream asset population of approximately 13,000 facilities, DW expect this to increase to $71bn by 2019. Despite a minor drop in 2015, resulting from industry-wide price deflation of equipment and services and budget tightening, an ageing existing asset population as well as a number of new installations drive the overall growth. By sector, Asset Services accounts for the majority of expenditure, 72%, with Asset Integrity accounting for the remaining 28%. North America and Asia dominate global expenditure, accounting for 35% and 28% of spend over the forecast period respectively. US downstream facilities are also expected to see a revival as a result of the recent shale boom. The World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 analyses the demand for maintenance in two key equipment and service lines: downstream asset services and down- stream asset integrity services, and across four facility types: refineries, petrochemical plants, gas processing and LNG. The report includes: Drivers & Indicators – in depth discussion of the factors encouraging asset mainte- nance expenditure including: E&P trends, oil & gas prices, analysis of the recent oil price downturn), downstream facility popula- tion, asset lifecycle, policies & regulation and trends and drivers detailed by refinery, petrochemical, gas processing and LNG. Service Line Analysis – for downstream as- set services and asset integrity services split out by service line, asset type and region with competitive landscape and detailed supply chain analysis. Regional Analysis – expenditure by service line 2010-2019 with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 33 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Methodology: Overview Chapter 4 : Asset Services Assumptions Asset based As the asset varies by age, capacity and region the cost assumption is adjusted. Asset type As each asset type performs different processes the cost assumption is adjusted to reflect this. For LNG facilities, DW accounts for the differences in process and com- plexity of export and import terminals by adjusting the cost assumption. Regulation and culture These are adjusted for in the cost as- sumption by applying a regional index. Onshore Douglas-Westwood In-House Database Asset Data Modelling Process Refining Petrochemicals Gas Processing LNG Export Import Capacity Varying facility sizes and the associated level of maintenance required is accounted for by the use of a cost assumption per barrel for refining, per mcf for gas processing and per tonne for petrochemicals and LNG. Age Age multiplier applied to all assets to account for the extra maintenance requirements as facilities age. Region A regional index is applied to account for environmental, labour and regulatory differences between regions. Asset Integrity Market Comprised of: Consultancy Asset Management Integrity Services Asset Services Market Comprised of: Electrical & Instrumentation Fabric Maintenance Mechanical Services Process Equipment Rotating Equipment Annual Cost Assumption by Service Line(including Inflation Assumption) The cost assumption will vary by asset type, accounting for the variations in complexity of equipment and machinery used. DW assign different cost assumptions for export and import terminals due to the higher complexity of export terminals. Brownfield Expenditure per Asset © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 47 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Australasia Chapter 6 : Regional Summary Figure 39: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia 2010-2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expenditure ($ billions) AI: Consultancy AI: Asset Management AI: Integrity Services AS: Mechanical AS: Electrical & Instrumentation AS: Fabric Maintenance Expenditure to total $ bn over the 2015-2019 period, growing at % CAGR. Growth of % from preceding five- year period – fastest growing region. % of forecast global spend. Large LNG facilities coming onstream during the forecast period driving growth. CAGR from 2015-2019: % Mechanical Services; % E&I; % Fabric Maintenance; % Rotating Equipment; % Process Equipment; % Consultancy; % Asset Management; % Integrity Services. % Refineries; % Petrochemicals; % Gas Processing; % LNG. Table 14: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Service Line 2014-2019 Table 15: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Asset Type 2014-2019 Expenditure in Australasia is set to total $ over 2015-2019. This is an increase of % from the previous five years, due mainly to LNG facilities within the region coming online in the coming years; adding some % to current capacity. Over 2010-2014, LNG plants accounted for % of maintenance spend in the region, refineries %, petrochemical plants % and gas processing plants %. During the forecast period the composi- tion of expenditure will change consider- ably as Australasia invests heavily in new LNG facilities. LNG will account for % of expenditure during the period, petrochemi- cals for %, refineries for % and gas processing for %. Despite being a relatively small market, the continued onset of LNG plants post-2014 means that Australasia will be one of the strongest growth regions, also with steady growth in refinery, petrochemical and gas processing plant maintenance spend. Furthermore, LNG maintenance spending is likely to see % CAGR over the forecast period as additional projects come online. Despite the cancellation of the Browse LNG export project in Australia, a number of LNG trains are expected to come online through the forecast period. This will drive demand for the asset maintenance services necessitated by the large capacity increase. But despite strong growth between 2015- 2019, DW expect Australasia to only account for % of global plant management expenditure. Refinery capacity to see little increase over the forecast, with only the Marsden Point project in New Zealand expected to have a significant affect on throughput. As a result, refinery maintenance expenditure is ex- pected to be predominantly driven by cost inflation, though there may be some impact from increased capacity. A similar story is likely for petrochemicals. Gas processing on the other hand should see relatively strong growth in maintenance spend, as supermajor investment drives capacity increases through the forecast. Asset Services Asset Integrity Total Total

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World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight

e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505

www.douglas-westwood.com

Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore

• Prospects• Technologies• Markets

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 40World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Market Forecast: By Asset Type

Chapter 5 : Asset Integrity

Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Expe

nditu

re (

$ bi

llion

s)

Expenditure to total $ bn over the

2015-2019 period.

Refineries and Petrochemicals to ac-

count for % of forecast expenditure.

CAGR from 2015-2019:

% Refineries;

% Petrochemicals;

% Gas processing;

% LNG.

Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019

Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019

35%

45%

9%

11%

Refineries Petrochemicals

Gas Processing LNG

34%

45%

9%

12%

The downstream market for Asset Integrity

is similar to the Asset Services market – it is

dominated by expenditure on petrochemi-

cal plants and refineries, which account for

% of total expenditure over 2015-2019,

in large part due to the sheer size of the

installed base.

An estimated $ bn and $ bn is to be

spent on petrochemical and refinery facili-

ties over the next five years. LNG and gas

processing are much smaller market sectors

with combined expenditure totalling almost

$ bn. However, LNG spend will be in-

creasing at the fastest rate: a CAGR of %

over the 2015-2019 period.

Similarly to Asset Services, the large growth

in LNG Asset Integrity expenditure can be

attributed to the increase in LNG facilities

in regions such as Australia and North

America.

$ bn $ bn

2015 2019

$millions 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Refinery

Petrochemical

Gas Processing

LNG

Total

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

31

World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Supply Chain – Middle East

Chapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology

The Middle East is characterised by

operators awarding multiple contracts

direct to lots of different small

companies, with the aim of achieving

perceived value for money. Bundling

is still uncommon.Whilst infrastructure is ageing, the

concept of fabric maintenance has

still not been fully incorporated by

the industry. In addition, much of

the maintenance work is carried out

in-house.EPC contractors (brownfield and

greenfield) contract fabric mainte-

nance and other specialist service

providers for services such as the

preparation and application of spe-

cialist coatings on modification and

newbuild work.The Middle Eastern market is char-

acterised by many local providers

across all service lines.

NOTE: This supply chain is intended to illustrate the most common routes to market for the

main service lines. The companies in each box are intended to be indicative key market players

not an exhaustive portrayal.

ADNOCDolphin EnergyEquateKNPCPDOPetro RabighQatar Petroleum

SabiaSahara PCCSaudi AramcoSaudi Services & OpsSinopecSipchem ABS ConsultingBureau VeritasDNV IntertekLloyds Register

Operators

Consultancy

APM PetromaintDesconIntertek QconSISWood GroupAsset Integrity Contractors

Integrated Services

Individual Services

DesconDietsmannKharafi NationalSaudi Services & OpsWood Group

O&M Contractors

APM PetromaintHertelIntertekStork Technical ServicesSmall local providersInspection Contractors

APM Petromaint DesconHertelQconSISSmall local providersE&I Contractors

APM PetromaintHertelIntertekSISStork Technical Services

Small local providersMechanical Contractors

ApplusHertelIntertekQconSISStork Technical Services

Small local providersFabric Maintenance

APM PetromaintDesconHertelSISStork Technical Services

Small local providersProcess Equip. Contractors

Alfanar APM PetromaintStork Technical Services

Wood GroupSmall local providersRotating Equip. Contractors

Ali-Rushaid ConstructionDAS GroupKentzKharafi National

PetrofacSaipemWood GroupWorley ParsonsEPC Contractors

“The [business] culture is to give out

multiple contracts to lots of different

small companies. It’s a convoluted supply

chain…It’s about value for money.”Engineering Services Company

“In the Middle East I see a greater need for asset integrity and fabric maintenance. Scale

of infrastructure and its age is as significant as anywhere. Integrity is a new concept across

the region due to a number of unfortunate accidents that have focused attention onto

asset integrity services.”Engineering Services Company

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

26

World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Asset LifecycleChapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology

Pre-FEED Studies

and Conceptual

Design

Operations &

Maintenance

ModificationsDecommissioning

CAPEX Phase

Liabilities

OPEX Phase

Commissioning

and Start-up

Construction

FEED

Maintenance:

Ongoing inspection, repair and upkeep of downstream assets is a vital process within the

downstream plant lifecycle. Maintenance services reduce operational costs over the long-

term, maximise uptime of the facility and ensure the efficient running of all equipment within

it. High ongoing levels of maintenance can also prolong the asset’s life; significantly pushing

back the plant’s decommissioning date.

Maintenance services are essential to ensure the asset is able to perform its required function

effectively and efficiently whilst adhering to any health, safety and environmental regulations

in place.

Asset Services

Asset Services encompass a number of service lines all implemented with the

aim to reduce the operational cost and downtime of the various electrical,

mechanical, rotating and process equipment that is vital to the smooth running

of the facility.

Mechanical Services

Electrical & Instrumentation

Fabric Maintenance

Rotating Equipment

Process equipment

Asset Integrity

Asset Integrity services aim to prolong the downstream lifecycle through the

management and development of maintenance strategies, ensuring maximum

plant uptime and an efficient maintenance schedule.

Consultancy

Asset Management

Integrity Services

The service lines covered in this report are split into two sections:

“Product life-cycle is regulated by industry

standards…which in turn affect clients’

requirements. Valves should serve 30

years, with regular maintenance typically

every five years.”

Oil & Gas Major

The typical lifecycle of a downstream asset

which demonstrates the occurrence of

maintenance services.

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

19

World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output

Chapter 2 : Drivers and Indicators

The two most common petrochemical

feedstocks are olefins and aromatics.The major hydrocarbon sources

used in producing petrochemicals

are obtained from gas processing and

petroleum refining.The main yields from refining are

gasoline, kerosene, distillate fuel and

residual fuel.

In 2014 US refineries produced 45% of

their yield as gasoline, although yields

can be altered in response to price. Figure 15: US Refinery Yield 2014

Source: EIA

45%

10%

30%

3%

20%

Figure 16: Petrochemical Feedstocks and Outputs

Natural Gas

Crude Oil Steam Cracker

Methane

EthanePropaneButanePlasticsResinsFibers

TextilesElastomersRubbersSolventsCoatingsDyes & PigmentsAdhesivesChemicalsOther Consumer Products

Methanol

EthylenePropyleneButadieneBenzeneTouleneXylene

Naptha

Motor GasolineKerosene Jet FuelDistillate FuelResidual FuelOther

Refining YieldsThe chart shows the yield from US refiner-

ies in 2014. Refiners can adjust product

yields in response to changing product

prices and other market conditions by

varying refinery processes and the types of

crude oil they choose to refine. The refinery

output will also be determined by the com-

plexity of the refinery; those with a catalytic

converter are generally more complex and

able to refine heavier crudes.The yields sum to more than 100% due

to the processing gain from refining; the

volume by which total output is greater

than input for a given period of time. Dur-

ing refining processes such as fluid catalytic

cracking, volumes can increase when large,

heavy molecules are broken

into smaller and lighter molecules that take

up more space.Petrochemical process

The diagram shows some of the petro-

chemical feedstocks and the consumer

goods produced by them. The two most

common petrochemical classes are olefins

and aromatics. Olefins include ethylene,

propylene and butadiene and can be used

to produce industrial chemicals, plastics and

rubber. Aromatics include benzene, toulene

and xylene (BTX).The main hydrocarbon sources used in a

petrochemical plant are either obtained

from gas processing (methane, ethane, pro-

pane, butane) or petroleum refining (naptha

and BTX).

Gas-produced ethane is typically the

favoured feedstock across the petrochemi-

cal industry due to lower costs. With the

majority of European petrochemical plants

focusing on naphtha-based cracking, this

has placed pressure on European plants in

recent years.

However, the recent crude oil price

downturn has prompted a sharp decline in

the price of naphtha. Ethane had an almost

tenfold advantage over naphtha at the start

of 2014. This had decreased to less than

twofold by December 2014, benefiting Eu-

ropean petrochemical plants by increasing

their margins. Although, these benefits may

be short lived depending on the longevity

of oil price decline.

“Margins are high currently, but it

really depends on the equipment in

the refinery and the complexity. The

catalytic cracker is the most complex

part of the refinery”Integrated Downstream Operator

Operator budgets tighten, but Downstream Maintenance spend still sees riseBetween 2015 and 2019, global downstream asset maintenance spend is expected to total $322 billion (bn), an increase of 12% when compared to the previous five-year period. In 2014, expenditure totalled $63bn for the world’s global downstream asset population of approximately 13,000 facilities, DW expect this to increase to $71bn by 2019. Despite a minor drop in 2015, resulting from industry-wide price deflation of equipment and services and budget tightening, an ageing existing asset population as well as a number of new installations drive the overall growth.

By sector, Asset Services accounts for the majority of expenditure, 72%, with Asset Integrity accounting for the remaining 28%.North America and Asia dominate global expenditure, accounting for 35% and 28% of spend over the forecast period respectively. US downstream facilities are also expected to see a revival as a result of the recent shale boom.

The World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 analyses the demand for maintenance in two key equipment and service

lines: downstream asset services and down-stream asset integrity services, and across four facility types: refineries, petrochemical plants, gas processing and LNG.

The report includes:

• Drivers & Indicators – in depth discussion of the factors encouraging asset mainte-nance expenditure including: E&P trends, oil & gas prices, analysis of the recent oil price downturn), downstream facility popula-tion, asset lifecycle, policies & regulation and trends and drivers detailed by refinery, petrochemical, gas processing and LNG.

• Service Line Analysis – for downstream as-set services and asset integrity services split out by service line, asset type and region with competitive landscape and detailed supply chain analysis.

• Regional Analysis – expenditure by service line 2010-2019 with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

33

World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Methodology: OverviewChapter 4 : Asset Services

Assumptions

Asset based

As the asset varies by age, capacity and

region the cost assumption is adjusted.

Asset type

As each asset type performs different

processes the cost assumption is

adjusted to reflect this.

For LNG facilities, DW accounts for

the differences in process and com-

plexity of export and import terminals

by adjusting the cost assumption.

Regulation and culture

These are adjusted for in the cost as-

sumption by applying a regional index.

Onshore

Douglas-Westwood

In-House Database

Ass

et D

ata

Mod

ellin

g Pr

oces

s

Refining

PetrochemicalsGas Processing

LNG

ExportImport

Capacity

Varying facility sizes and the

associated level of maintenance

required is accounted for by the

use of a cost assumption per

barrel for refining, per mcf for

gas processing and per tonne for

petrochemicals and LNG.

Age

Age multiplier applied to all

assets to account for the extra

maintenance requirements as

facilities age.

Region

A regional index is applied to

account for environmental,

labour and regulatory differences

between regions.

Asset Integrity Market

Comprised of:

Consultancy

Asset Management

Integrity Services

Asset Services Market

Comprised of:

Electrical & Instrumentation

Fabric Maintenance

Mechanical Services

Process Equipment

Rotating Equipment

Annual Cost Assumption by Service Line (including Inflation Assumption)

The cost assumption will vary by asset type, accounting for the variations in complexity of equipment and machinery used. DW

assign different cost assumptions for export and import terminals due to the higher complexity of export terminals.

Brownfield Expenditure per Asset

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

47

World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Australasia

Chapter 6 : Regional Summary

Figure 39: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia 2010-2019

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Expe

nditu

re (

$ bi

llion

s)

AI: Consultancy

AI: Asset Management

AI: Integrity Services

AS: Mechanical

AS: Electrical & Instrumentation AS: Fabric Maintenance

Expenditure to total $ bn over the

2015-2019 period, growing at %

CAGR.

Growth of % from preceding five-

year period – fastest growing region.% of forecast global spend.Large LNG facilities coming onstream

during the forecast period driving

growth.

CAGR from 2015-2019:% Mechanical Services;% E&I;

% Fabric Maintenance;% Rotating Equipment;

% Process Equipment;% Consultancy;% Asset Management;

% Integrity Services.% Refineries;% Petrochemicals;% Gas Processing;% LNG.

Table 14: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Service Line 2014-2019

Table 15: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Asset Type 2014-2019

Expenditure in Australasia is set to total

$ over 2015-2019. This is an increase

of % from the previous five years, due

mainly to LNG facilities within the region

coming online in the coming years; adding

some % to current capacity.Over 2010-2014, LNG plants accounted for

% of maintenance spend in the region,

refineries %, petrochemical plants %

and gas processing plants %. During the forecast period the composi-

tion of expenditure will change consider-

ably as Australasia invests heavily in new

LNG facilities. LNG will account for % of

expenditure during the period, petrochemi-

cals for %, refineries for % and gas

processing for %.

Despite being a relatively small market, the

continued onset of LNG plants post-2014

means that Australasia will be one of the

strongest growth regions, also with steady

growth in refinery, petrochemical and

gas processing plant maintenance spend.

Furthermore, LNG maintenance spending is

likely to see % CAGR over the forecast

period as additional projects come online.Despite the cancellation of the Browse

LNG export project in Australia, a number

of LNG trains are expected to come online

through the forecast period. This will drive

demand for the asset maintenance services

necessitated by the large capacity increase.

But despite strong growth between 2015-

2019, DW expect Australasia to only

account for % of global plant management

expenditure.

Refinery capacity to see little increase over

the forecast, with only the Marsden Point

project in New Zealand expected to have a

significant affect on throughput. As a result,

refinery maintenance expenditure is ex-

pected to be predominantly driven by cost

inflation, though there may be some impact

from increased capacity. A similar story is

likely for petrochemicals.

Gas processing on the other hand should

see relatively strong growth in maintenance

spend, as supermajor investment drives

capacity increases through the forecast.

$ millions

20142015

20162017

20182019

Asset ServicesMechanicalE & I

Fabric MaintenanceRotating EquipmentProcess Equipment

Asset IntegrityConsultancy

6

Asset ManagementIntegrity Services

Total

$ millions

20142015

20162017

20182019

RefineryPetrochemicalsGas ProcessingLNG

Total

World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight

e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505

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Why purchase the Downstream Maintenance Market ForecastDouglas-Westwood’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

An essential report – for financial institu-tions, equipment manufacturers, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.

Detailed methodology – the report uses research from our own in-house downstream databases for refineries, petrochemicals, gas processing and LNG, an information system ex-clusive to DW, to form the basis of the models. Assumptions used to generate market demand are the result of our primary and secondary research. Demand-side analysis by service line provides a metric on which to establish future opportunities and provide a context for market share assessment.

Comprehensive market forecasts – examina-tion, analysis and 10-year coverage of expendi-ture.

Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and support-ing materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.

ISBN 978-1-910045-16-9

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- Financial Analyst

2015

World Downstream Maintenance

Market Forecast

Prospects, Technologies, World Markets

2015-2019

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Contents

Table of Contents

1 Summary and Conclusions ......................................7Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 8

Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 9

2 Drivers and Indicators ........................................... 10Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand ............................................................. 11

Changing Energy Mix .................................................................................................................. 12

Natural Gas .................................................................................................................................. 13

LNG ............................................................................................................................................... 14

Oil – Supply & Demand ............................................................................................................. 15

Oil Price Volatility ....................................................................................................................... 16

Refining Margins .......................................................................................................................... 17

Downstream Facility Population .............................................................................................. 18

Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output .............................................................................. 19

Refining Trends & Drivers ......................................................................................................... 20

Petrochemical Trends & Drivers .............................................................................................. 21

Gas Processing Trends & Drivers ............................................................................................ 22

LNG Trends & Drivers............................................................................................................... 23

Politics and Regulation ............................................................................................................... 24

3 Market Structure and Methodology .................. 25Asset Lifecycle ............................................................................................................................. 26

Asset Services – Definitions ..................................................................................................... 27

Asset Integrity – Definitions ..................................................................................................... 28

Supply Chain – Continental Europe ........................................................................................ 29

Supply Chain – North America ................................................................................................ 30

Supply Chain – Middle East ....................................................................................................... 31

4 Asset Services ......................................................... 32Methodology: Overview ............................................................................................................ 33

Barriers & Limitations ................................................................................................................ 34

Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................ 35

Market Forecast: By Asset Type .............................................................................................. 36

Market Forecast: By Region ...................................................................................................... 37

5 Asset Integrity ......................................................... 38Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................ 39

Market Forecast: By Asset Type .............................................................................................. 40

Market Forecast: By Region ...................................................................................................... 41

6 Regional Summary .................................................. 42Regional Summary....................................................................................................................... 43

Africa ............................................................................................................................................. 45

Asia ................................................................................................................................................ 46

Australasia .................................................................................................................................... 47

Eastern Europe & FSU ................................................................................................................ 48

Latin America ............................................................................................................................... 49

Middle East ................................................................................................................................... 50

North America ............................................................................................................................ 51

Western Europe .......................................................................................................................... 52

7 Appendix .................................................................. 53Top 20 Countries ....................................................................................................................... 54

Data and Text Conventions ...................................................................................................... 55

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Contents

Figures

Figure 1: Global Maintenance Expenditure by Region 2010-2019........................................................8

Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035 ............................................... 11

Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013 ................................................... 11

Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix 1980-2013 ........................................................................................... 12

Figure 5: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) ................................................................................................ 13

Figure 6: Natural Gas Prices ($/mbtu) .............................................................................................................. 13

Figure 7: LNG Supply by Region (excludes FLNG) ................................................................................... 14

Figure 8: FLNG Capex ........................................................................................................................................... 14

Figure 9: Oil Price & Demand ............................................................................................................................... 15

Figure 10: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 ................................................................... 15

Figure 11: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015 ......................... 16

Figure 12: Oil Price to Balance Budgets with Brent at $59 (20 February 2015) ....................... 16

Figure 13: Historic Brent cracking margins relative to Brent oil price (Jan 08 – Feb 15) ....... 17

Figure 14: Global Downstream Population 2009-2018 ........................................................................... 18

Figure 15: US Refinery Yield 2014 ...................................................................................................................... 19

Figure 16: Petrochemical Feedstocks and Outputs .................................................................................... 19

Figure 17: Global Oil Refinery Utilisation ........................................................................................................ 20

Figure 18: Global Refining Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ........................................................................... 20

Figure 19: Global Petrochemical Price Index 2009-2015 ........................................................................ 21

Figure 20: Global Petrochemical Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ............................................................. 21

Figure 21: Global Gas Processing Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ........................................................... 22

Figure 22: LNG Demand Outlook 2005-2030 ............................................................................................. 23

Figure 23: Global LNG Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ................................................................................. 23

Figure 24: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019 ..................................................... 35

Figure 25: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019................... 35

Figure 26: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 ....................................................... 36

Figure 27: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 ..................... 36

Figure 28: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2019 ................................................................ 37

Figure 29: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019.............................. 37

Figure 30: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019 ................................................... 39

Figure 31: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019................. 39

Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 ..................................................... 40

Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 ................... 40

Figure 34: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2019 .............................................................. 41

Figure 35: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019............................ 41

Figure 36: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2010-2019 ......................................................................... 44

Figure 37: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa 2010-2019 ..................................................................... 45

Figure 38: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia 2010-2019......................................................................... 46

Figure 39: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia 2010-2019 ........................................................... 47

Figure 40: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU 2010-2019 ............................................................. 48

Figure 41: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America 2010-2019 .................................................... 49

Figure 42: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East 2010-2019 ......................................................... 50

Figure 43: Maintenance Expenditure in North America 2010-2019 ................................................. 51

Figure 44: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe 2010-2019 .............................................. 52

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Contents

Tables

Table 1: Primary Energy Demand Growth by Region ............................................................................... 11

Table 2: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019.......................................................... 35

Table 3: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019 ............................................................ 36

Table 4: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2014-2019..................................................................... 37

Table 5: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019........................................................ 39

Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019 .......................................................... 40

Table 7: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2014-2019................................................................... 41

Table 8: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2014-2019 ............................................................................. 44

Table 9: Global Forecast Maintenance Expenditure by Asset Type & Service Line 2015-19 44

Table 10: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Service Line 2014-2019 ..................................... 45

Table 11: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Asset Type 2014-2019 ....................................... 45

Table 12: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Service Line 2014-2019......................................... 46

Table 13: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Asset Type 2014-2019 ........................................... 46

Table 14: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Service Line 2014-2019 ........................... 47

Table 15: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Asset Type 2014-2019 ............................. 47

Table 16: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Service Line 2014-2019 ............................. 48

Table 17: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Asset Type 2014-2019 ............................... 48

Table 18: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Service Line 2014-2019 .................... 49

Table 19: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Asset Type 2014-2019 ...................... 49

Table 20: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Service Line 2014-2019 ......................... 50

Table 21: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Asset Type 2014-2019 ........................... 50

Table 22: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Service Line 2014-2019 ................. 51

Table 23: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Asset Type 2014-2019 ................... 51

Table 24: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Service Line 2014-2019 .............. 52

Table 25: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Asset Type 2014-2019 ................ 52

Table 26: Top 20 Countries – Refining Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ........................ 54

Table 27: Top 20 Countries – Petrochemical Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019 .......... 54

Table 28: Top 20 Countries – Gas Processing Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ..................................... 54

Table 29: Top 20 Countries – LNG Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ........................................................... 54

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