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What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

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Page 1: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016
Page 2: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

Nifty posted positive returns for the month May 2016

Time Period Index Level Change

Apr 29- May 31 7850 to 8160 3.95%

6,900.00

7,100.00

7,300.00

7,500.00

7,700.00

7,900.00

8,100.00

8,300.00

8,500.00

8,700.00

May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16

Nifty 50

Page 3: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

Top 5 Monthly Gainers

Company Name% Gain in May

2016Remarks

L&T 17.81%

The stock surged 17.81% in the month of May as the company reported strong numbers in Q4 FY 16. Revenue increased 18.3 % YOY to Rs 33,157 crore due to progress in project execution in infrastructure and power. Infrastructure segment constitutes 47% of the total revenues in FY 16. The Government focus on the infrastructural segment will help the company to register growth in its core business in coming years. The consolidated order book of the company stands at Rs.`2.5 lac crore.

Bosch 13.99%

The company registered highest Q4 EBITDA margins in last two years at 21.5% due to decline in cost.The company have received approval from the board and shareholders for selling its less profitablestarter motor and generator business. The business generates 10% of Bosch sales but contributes only1% of EBIT. Sale of business is expected to boost margins for the company in the future.

Asian Paints 13.88%The company reported net profit of Rs. 408 crore, an 19.88% increase in consolidated profit, for thequarter Q4 FY 16. The sales of the company grew 12.29% YOY at Rs.3919 crore. The growth in saleswas supported by pay commission hike, normal monsoon expectation and traction in small cities.

HDFC13.35%

The company received approval to sell its 10% stake in HDFC life, its insurance subsidiary through anIPO. It is expected to raise $400 million through the IPO. It has already sold 9% stake of its insurancebusiness in the month of march to partner standard life Mauritius holdings

Tech Mahindra 13.23%

Tech Mahindra is to acquire ‘Target TOPCO limited’ for $163 million which is a financial firm in the UK.The purchase will allow the company to capture a greater market share of the UK’s financial servicessoftware and services market. In addition, the good Q4FY16 result also pushed the share price. Thenet profit of the company has almost doubled to Rs. 897 crores in Q4 FY 16 from Rs. 472 in the samequarter last year.

Page 4: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

Top 5 Monthly Losers

Company Name% Loss in

May 2016Remarks

Adani Ports 17.51%

Moody’s and S&P revised the rating of Adani ports to Negative from stable on poor port volume and highdebt. The loans and advances of the company are continuously rising from Rs. 4400 crore in FY 12 to Rs.7000 crore in FY 16. The net debt of the company stands at Rs. 20000 crores. In addition to that thecompany has huge capex plans which will result in negative cash flow in FY 17.

Cipla 12.58%

The company posted 69% fall in net profit for Q4 FY 16, due to one-off costs related to its business inEurope and some emerging markets. The company is working on exiting some emerging markets due tocomplexities and changing its European business from ‘direct to consumer’ to ‘business to business’. Themargins will remain under pressure due to investment in research and development. The company expectsR&D to be 8% of sales in FY 17 v/s 6.5% in FY 16.

Lupin 8.91%

Lupin’s share price tanked 8.91% in the month due to concerns over the US Food and Drug Administration(USFDA)’s observations on its Goa plant. In march, the company received 9 adverse observations and it isexpected to resolve in next two to three months. Any delay in the resolution will impact new productapprovals and will hit the sales. Similarly, the interest cost is expected to increase in FY 17 because of the$800 million loan it took to fund Gravis acquisition.

Bank of Baroda 8.17%

The paramount NPA problem is keeping the PSU banks stocks under pressure. Bank of Baroda’a Gross NPAstands at 9.99% and Net NPA stands at 5.06% as on 31st March 2016. The bank reported a net loss ofRs.3230 crore in Q4FY16. Advances declined by 10.3% to Rs. 38377 crore (YOY)due to decline in retail, SME,farm credit, overseas and corporate advances.

Eicher Motors 6.89%The share price of Eicher motors tanked in May 2016 as the promoters sold more than 4% stake in thecompany in secondary market. The proceeds of the sale will be utilize for personal use suchas portfolio and other investments, and charitable purposes.

Page 6: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

Domestic actions

TopicMonth End Level

Change DescriptionApril May

Monthly NIFTY 7,850 8,160 3.95%

Nifty 50 gained 3.95% on MOM basis because of recovery in corporate earningsafter a drop in the last four quarters. In addition to that, the rise was alsosupported by the good monsoon expected in the country after a period of twoyears.

FII net inflow( Rs. Cr) 3,655 2,559 -30%The FIIs slowed down their inflows in May 2016 due to concern over rate hike inthe US.

DII net inflow (Rs. Cr) -2,554 6,758 364.6%

The DII have turned net buyers in May 2016 on the expectation of rate cut in upcoming RBI policy, healthy corporate earnings and improvement in economic data such as Government achieved the fiscal deficit target of 3.9% and GDP growth rate of the FY 2015-2016 7.6%.

S&P BSE Small Cap 11,021 11,142 1.10%The emphasis of the government on infrastructure, rural and social sectors has alsopushed the small caps. Most of the small cap companies fall under these sectors.

S&P BSE Mid Cap 11,043 11,366 2.92%The midcap sector has rallied on account of the good quarterly performance of the companies in auto ancillary and NBFC space and cement space. Most of the companies fall in the mid-cap sector.

Page 7: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

(20,000)

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Equity (Rs.crore)

Equity (Rs.crore)

FII inflows though positive shows downward trend

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16

Equity (Rs. crore)

Page 8: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

DII Inflows shows positive trend

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16

DII Inflows (Rs. In crore)

Page 9: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

Sensex PE and PB reaching attractive zone

3.05

2.93

3.03

2.89

2.752.75

2.622.622.59

2.49

2.65

2.71

2.792.83

2.882.9

2.972.93

3.04

2.96

3.063.09

3.063.03

2.952.95

3.07

2.96

2.74

2.94

2.752.73

2.71

2.55

2.71

2.8

2.74

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16

Sensex PE & PB Ratio

PE Ratios PB Ratios

Page 11: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

International Action

TopicIndex Level

Difference DescriptionApril May

Oil Price (Brent) $48.13 $49.55 2.95%

The oil prices surged as the oil production in the US is continuously falling. In addition tothat, recent attacks in Nigeria on pipelines and production facilities by the militants havesharply reduced the oil output. This has resulted in lowering the gap between demand andsupply of the crude oil.

Dow Jones 17,774 17,786 0.07%Dow Jones did not gain much on MOM because people were worried about rise in USinterest rates in upcoming policies which will hurt the performance of the stocks.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

(ETF)$34.39 $33.12 -3.69%

The Caxin PMI (tracks small and medium-sized enterprises) for China is continuouslydeclining , it stood at 49.2 in the month of May v/s 49.4 in the previous month ( a PMIbelow 50 indicates contraction in the economic activity). Similarly, the Brazilian marketdeclined by 10% in May as compared to previous month. This is because sharp fall inenergy stocks due to corruption issues in the sector.

Page 12: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

Events to watch in June 2016

Date Country Event Previous Estimates

2nd June 2016 USA OPEC meeting - -

3rd June 2016 IndiaNIKKEI service

PMI53.7 -

3rd June 2016 Europe Service PMI 53.1 53.1

7th June 2016 India RBI Policy 6.50% -

7th June 2016 Europe GDP (YOY) 1.50% -

7th June 2016 China CPI data 2.30% -

14th June 2016 India WPI data 0.34% -

30th June 2016 IndiaForeign debt

(USD)482.9B

-

Page 13: What is driving Indian financial markets in June 2016

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