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©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public. Macroeconomic and market trends U.S. and global perspectives Mark Fleming CoreLogic Marc Gaudart Experian #vision2014 Michele Raneri Experian

Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

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Review what’s new regarding consumer credit trends and the economy, nationally and internationally. We’ll share overall metrics, current credit health and the results of a recent payment hierarchy trend analysis.

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Page 1: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

© 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in

any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.

Macroeconomic and market trends – U.S. and global perspectives

Mark Fleming CoreLogic

Marc Gaudart Experian

#vision2014

Michele Raneri Experian

Page 2: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

2 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

We can finally exhale…

Page 3: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

3 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

…but we need to still be vigilant

Page 4: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

4 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Global consumer credit map Consumer credit outstanding and growth

Source: Sofinco consumer credit world wide 2011 and 2012

$3.4 Trillion

$404 Billion

$132 Billion

$1.8 Trillion

$2.4 Trillion

$121Billion -1%

+5.5%

+13.5%

+14.9%

+7.7%

+2.6%

Page 5: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

5 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

U.S.

Euro area

Central & Eastern Europe

What’s going on today in the U.S., Europe and Brazil Summary

GDP Growth (%) Unemployment (%)

1.9

Brazil

2013 2014 forecast 2013 2014 forecast

Latin America

Developed Asia Pacific

Developing Asia (ex. China & India)

China

India

Russia

-0.4

2.8

UK

1.0

1.7 2.4

2.5 2.8

1.5 2.0

2.3 2.3

2.6 3.0

?? ??

6.5 6.7

6.5 6.7

4.4 5.4

Source: IMF - World Economic Outlook Projections, Consensus Economics, Focus Economics. The Economist

7.4 6.5

12.1 12.0

7.6 6.9

4.8 5.7

4.1 4.1

5.7 5.5

8-14

4.8-11

1.8-6

3-6

9.9

Page 6: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

6 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

U.S. economic and

credit trends

Michele Raneri

Experian

Vice President, Analytics

Page 7: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

7 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Consumer confidence improving year-over-year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

3Q

77

4Q

78

1Q

80

2Q

81

3Q

82

4Q

83

1Q

85

2Q

86

3Q

87

4Q

88

1Q

90

2Q

91

3Q

92

4Q

93

1Q

95

2Q

96

3Q

97

4Q

98

1Q

00

2Q

01

3Q

02

4Q

03

1Q

05

2Q

06

3Q

07

4Q

08

1Q

10

2Q

11

3Q

12

4Q

13

Consumer confidence index

= Recession

YoY:

+20.4 pts

Peak 3Q 2000

Low 1Q 2009

Page 8: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

8 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Unemployment rates forecast to come down

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2014, Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, December 2013

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Unemployment rate

FOMC forecast

Oct 2009

10.0%

Apr 2000

3.8%

Dec 1982

10.8%

Page 9: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

9 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

U.S. jobs gained or lost

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

1-Month Net Change (thousands)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2014

Page 10: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

10 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

U.S. jobs gained or lost

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Ja

n-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

l-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

1-Month Net Change (thousands) Unemployment rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2014

Page 11: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

11 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Unemployment change by state

Percent change in unemployment rate from

October 2009 to March 2014

Page 12: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

12 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Drought covers large portion of western U.S.

Source: NOAA / National Weather Service, Author: David Miskus, NOAA/NAWS/NCEP/CPC

Abnormally

Dry

Exceptional

Drought

Page 13: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

13 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Drivers of gasoline prices

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

U.S. gas price (regular all formulations)

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Page 14: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

14 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Bankcard originations

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

$65.8 BN

Page 15: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

15 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Distribution of bankcard loan originations By VantageScore® band

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

A B C D F

Page 16: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

16 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Average VantageScore® Bankcard inquiries and originations

Spread between inquiries and originations

61 32 34 52 60 49 54 70 85 66 61 67 86 58 51 67 57 45 54 59 52 46 46 54 48 44 41

600

650

700

750

800

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

Bankcard inquiries Originations

Page 17: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

17 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Bankcard late stage delinquency rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

13

60-89 DPD 90-180 DPD

Percent balances

Page 18: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

18 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Bankcard delinquency rates By state

Best/worst five states* 4Q13 national bankcard

60-89 DPD rate 0.56%

1. Wyoming 0.32%

2. North Dakota 0.33%

3. Alaska 0.34%

4. Vermont 0.43%

5. Montana 0.44%

47. Arkansas 0.66%

48. Nevada 0.66%

49. Alabama 0.67%

50. Mississippi 0.71%

51. Arizona 0.73%

*Includes District of Columbia

Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

4Q09

High Low

0.70% 0.43%

4Q13

Page 19: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

19 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Retail originations

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

$20.59 B

Page 20: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

20 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Distribution of retail loan originations By VantageScore® band

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

A B C D F

Page 21: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

21 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Retail late stage delinquency rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

13

60-89 DPD 90-180 DPD

Percent balances

Page 22: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

22 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Retail delinquency rates By state

Best/worst five states* 4Q13 national retail

60-89 DPD rate 1.01%

1. North Dakota 0.55%

2. Nebraska 0.64%

3. Iowa 0.70%

4. Wisconsin 0.79%

5. Minnesota 0.80%

47. Vermont 1.18%

48. Alabama 1.18%

49. Arizona 1.19%

50. New Mexico 1.29%

51. Arkansas 1.34%

*Includes District of Columbia

Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

4Q09

High Low

1.23% 0.76%

4Q13

Page 23: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

23 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Mortgage trends

Mark Fleming

CoreLogic

Chief Economist

Page 24: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

24 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Constrained Only In Specific Dimensions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200Credit Score Less Than 620

LTV Share 90 And Above

DTI Share 40 And Above

Low & No Doc Share

Arm Share

Purchase Share

Normal Current Maximum

Source: CoreLogic, October 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights

reserved

Mortgage Underwriting, Loan Type, and Purpose Measured as a Percentage of "Normal"

In Which Dimension Is Credit Constrained

Page 25: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

25 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Equity Isn’t Constrained- A Good Thing Given Few Have It

LTV Cohort Origination Share, First Lien Purchase Only

Source: CoreLogic September 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-0

0

Ma

y-0

0

Sep-0

0

Jan-0

1

Ma

y-0

1

Sep-0

1

Jan-0

2

Ma

y-0

2

Sep-0

2

Jan-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep-0

3

Jan-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep-0

4

Jan-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep-0

5

Jan-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep-0

6

Jan-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep-0

7

Jan-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep-0

8

Jan-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep-0

9

Jan-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep-1

3

75%+ - 80% 80%+ - 85% 85%+ - 90% 90%+ - 95% 95%+ - 100%

Page 26: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

26 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Creditworthiness Is Key- Low Credit Score Lending Non-Existent

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%Jan-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep-0

3

Jan-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep-0

4

Jan-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep-0

5

Jan-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep-0

6

Jan-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep-0

7

Jan-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep-0

8

Jan-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep-0

9

Jan-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep-1

0

Jan-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep-1

1

Jan-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep-1

2

Jan-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep-1

3

Up to 619 620 to 639 640 to 699 700 to 779 780+

Source: CoreLogic October 2013 ©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights

Credit Score Cohort Origination Share, First Lien Purchase Only

Page 27: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

27 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Rising Rates Push Borrowers out of the Money and Reduce Future Turnover

Share of Total Mortgages

Source: CoreLogic October 2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

< 4.00% 4.00 <- 4.50% 4.50 <- 5.00% 5.00 <- 5.50% 5.50 <- 6.00% 6.00 <- 6.50% 6.50 <- 7.00% > 7.00%

Current Interest Rate on Active Mortgages

Underwriting Constrained

High Rate Borrower, 10+%

Page 28: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

28 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Shadow Inventory- Continued Improvement

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-0

6

Apr-

06

Jul-0

6

Oct-

06

Jan-0

7

Apr-

07

Jul-0

7

Oct-

07

Jan-0

8

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct-

08

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct-

09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct-

10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-1

2

Oct-

12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Serious Delinquency Shadow Inventory FCL Shadow Inventory REO Shadow Inventory

Source: CoreLogic October 2013

In Thousands, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Page 29: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

29 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Future Homeowners are Only Just Recovering

Household Formation Rate- YOY Growth Rate

Source: Census 2012

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Less than 25 years 25 to 35 years 35 to 55 years 55 years and over

Page 30: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

30 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Institutional Investors are Participating but by Different Sale Types

Institutional Investor Share of Purchases

Source: CoreLogic, September 2013

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

New Construction REO Resale Short Sale

Page 31: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

31 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Have Down Payment, Will Travel…

Source: CoreLogic Q3 2013

Insufficient Equity (80+ LTV) Share

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

NV

FL

MS

OH

AZ

GA

NE IL

TN

LA

AR

OK

NH

MD MI

SC

CO AL

WI

NC

VA

NM R

I

KY

DE IA

MO

MN

NJ

WA

UT

WV

AK ID

OR

KS

CT

CA

PA IN

MA

WY

DC

TX

ME

MT

NY

Insufficient Equity (80+ LTV)

Page 32: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

32 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Fire Burn and Caldron Bubble?

Impressive Year-Over-Year Growth as of December 2013 Data, yet Month-Over-Month is Indicating no

Growth

Source: CoreLogic HPI, HPI Forecast December 2013

HPI YOY %Chg

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan-0

0

Jun-0

0

No

v-0

0

Apr-

01

Sep-0

1

Feb

-02

Jul-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ma

y-0

3

Oct-

03

Ma

r-0

4

Aug-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jun-0

5

No

v-0

5

Apr-

06

Sep-0

6

Feb

-07

Jul-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Aug-0

9

Jan-1

0

Jun-1

0

No

v-1

0

Apr-

11

Sep-1

1

Feb

-12

Jul-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

Ma

r-1

4

Aug-1

4

Jan-1

5

Jun-1

5

No

v-1

5

Including Distressed Excluding Distressed

Page 33: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

33 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

Ownership Status Matters for Affordability

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Jan-0

0

Jun-0

0

No

v-0

0

Apr-

01

Sep-0

1

Feb

-02

Jul-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ma

y-0

3

Oct-

03

Ma

r-0

4

Aug-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jun-0

5

No

v-0

5

Apr-

06

Sep-0

6

Feb

-07

Jul-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Oct-

08

Ma

r-0

9

Aug-0

9

Jan-1

0

Jun-1

0

No

v-1

0

Apr-

11

Sep-1

1

Feb

-12

Jul-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Oct-

13

First-Time Homebuyer Existing Homeowner

Affordability Index

First-Time Homebuyer and Existing Homeowner Affordability

Source: CoreLogic October 2013 © 2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 34: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

34 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

House Price Undervaluation Expected to Persist

Source: CoreLogic January 2014

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

© 2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved

Actual Prices Relative to Fundamental Prices (%)-Population Weighted Composite of top 50 Markets

Page 35: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

35 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon

What Do You See- The Many Dimensions of Housing Success

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Total Sales

HPI, YOY%Chg

SeriouslyDelinquent

Rate

ForeclosureRate

NegativeEquity Share

HousingStarts

Normal

Current

Source: Source: IHS, CoreLogic December 2013

Page 36: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

36 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

UK economic and

credit trends

Marc Gaudart

Experian

Global Head of Consulting

Page 37: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

37 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Secured and unsecured new lending per month £ billions

32.0

13.5

10.1

17.6

16.6 17.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ju

n-0

7

Sep

-07

De

c-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ju

n-0

8

Sep

-08

De

c-0

8

Ma

r-09

Ju

n-0

9

Sep

-09

De

c-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Sep

-10

De

c-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Sep

-11

De

c-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

Sep

-13

De

c-1

3

Secured

Unsecured

In the UK, new lending volumes have reached pre-crisis levels

for unsecured consumer lending; securing lending is growing again,

but still below pre-crisis level

Page 38: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

38 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Bank of England write-off rates Percentage

Source: Bank of England

1.86

4.29 5.19

2.40

0.79

2.61

9.21

11.12

2.30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

200

2Q

4

200

3Q

2

200

3Q

4

200

4Q

2

200

4Q

4

200

5Q

2

200

5Q

4

200

6Q

2

200

6Q

4

200

7Q

2

200

7Q

4

200

8Q

2

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

2

200

9Q

4

201

0Q

2

201

0Q

4

201

1Q

2

201

1Q

4

201

2Q

2

201

2Q

4

201

3Q

2

Credit Cards

Personal Loans

Write-off rates for unsecured lending have improved significantly

in the last two years…

Page 39: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

39 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Bank of England quarterly mortgage write-off rates Percentage

0.11

0.03

0.08

0.02

0.01

0.09

0.04

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

199

3Q

4

199

4Q

4

199

5Q

4

199

6Q

4

199

7Q

4

199

8Q

4

199

9Q

4

200

0Q

4

200

1Q

4

200

2Q

4

200

3Q

4

200

4Q

4

200

5Q

4

200

6Q

4

200

7Q

4

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

4

201

0Q

4

201

1Q

4

201

2Q

4

… and so have write-off rates for secured lending, but still not back

to pre-crisis levels

Source: Bank of England

Page 40: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

40 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Example 1: Spain

Sources: INE (Spanish National Statistics Agency), Bank of Spain (Central Bank), Experian Global consulting Practice

Six years after the start of the crisis, mortgage books are still very fragile,

despite a significant tightening of lending criteria

Better use of data and analytics

Deployment of state-of-the-art collections platforms

Involvement of large branch networks in collections activities

Change of approach to using external debt collection agencies

Sale of assets to investment funds

Spanish banks have overhauled

their collections practices,

including:

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

New mortgage lending by year, € (billions)

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Mortgage delinquency rate, %

0.37

2.84

2.38

5.08

96 122

157

188 184

117

77 71 46

28 20

Page 41: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

41 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Example 2: Russia

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Russia consumer lending 2004-2013,

RUB (billions)

1,200

9,400

+25% CAGR

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

12

420

+49% CAGR

Russia 90+ DPD volumes 2004-2013,

RUB (billions)

Sources: Central Bank of Russia, Experian Global consulting Practice

Delinquency levels outpacing growth in volumes, a sense of déjà vu?

Page 42: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

42 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Example 3: Turkey

Sources: Turkish Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency; Experian Global Consulting Practice

Government caps credit card limits and rate

Credit limit across all cards cannot exceed four times monthly salary

Revolving is forbidden for certain merchant category transactions, such as food, jewelry, fuel, telecoms, etc.

Monthly repayment must be higher than 30% of balance for balances below TL15,000 and 35% of balances for balances above TL15,000

2013-2014 regulations

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

4.3

83.8

+31% CAGR

Turkish credit card lending 2002-2013,

TL (billions)

Page 43: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

43 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Example 4: UK

“As a regulator we look at the way financial organisations treat their customers, and the way they behave

towards them. By regulating conduct we mean that we regulate the way these organisations behave towards

the consumer, for example, making sure they give enough information about the product they are selling.”

The FCA was created in the UK on April 1, 2013:

The six outcomes to treating customers fairly:

1: Consumers can be confident that they are dealing with firms where the fair

treatment of customers is central to the corporate culture.

2: Products and services marketed and sold in the retail market are designed to

meet the needs of identified consumer groups and are targeted accordingly.

3: Consumers are provided with clear information and are kept appropriately informed before, during and after the point of sale.

4: Where consumers receive advice, the advice is suitable and

takes account of their circumstances.

5: Consumers are provided with products that perform as firms have led them to expect, and the associated service is of an acceptable standard and as they have been led to expect.

6: Consumers do not face unreasonable post-sale barriers imposed by firms to change product, switch provider, submit a claim or make a complaint.

Source: FCA website; Experian Global Consulting Practice

Creation of the Financial Conduct Authority: A new paradigm for banking

is emerging

A deeper, more

detailed understanding

of customer

circumstances is

critical to fair lending,

and is now required

by regulator. Data

and analytics-driven

decisioning is

fundamental.

Page 44: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

44 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Example 5: UK

Source: UK Finance & Leasing Association; Experian Global consulting Practice

Robust and good quality growth in auto finance industry

Understanding

purpose of loan and

providing good point-

of-sale customer

experience can drive

good lending.

Data and analytics

decisioning is key

What’s going on:

2011 2012 2013

UK Motor Finance New Lending, ₤ (billions)

50%

50%

56%

44%

58%

42%

13.7 16.7

20.8

New

Used

Growth in auto finance lending in the UK has largely been driven by captive auto lenders, supporting new car sales

Quality of lending has been significantly better than any other form of lending except mortgages during the period

This has driven car registration numbers growth in the UK, significantly larger than European Union average

Captive lenders have captured a sound, growing market, that traditional banks have not focused on

Implications:

Page 45: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

45 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Example 6: Philippines

Sources: Banko, Globe, BPI websites; Experian Micro Analytics

An origination credit scoring system that includes: Airtime top-up patterns (for example, do you top-up large

amounts once a month or small amounts every other day?); Voice and SMS usage; Mobile Money utilization (cash in/out, transfers, utility payment,

etc.) Information gathered directly from the borrower (for example

income, marital status, etc.); Information available externally (for example, where available,

from a credit bureau);

An automated customer management system to send alerts to borrowers to remind them of a due payment, to increase or decrease dynamically exposure to good / bad borrowers, to streamline the management of overdue payments.

A credit risk agent management system to dynamically rank agents by the quality of the clients they have introduced to the bank and to calculate and disburse risk adjusted commissions. In addition the system alerts agents when some of their introduced clients are late to allow early collections actions.

An enhanced mobile interface for the end clients that allows them to manage their credit product and review for example when the installment is due, make anticipated payments, request additional credit lines, etc., all managed in an automated and real time fashion.

How to manage credit risk on mobile loans:

Banks and telecoms working together – a terrific ground for smart decision

analytics

Example partnership:

Globe:

38M

subscribers

Bank of Philippines Islands: 6M customers

Products:

Send money

Pay bills

Savings

Insurance

Loans

Buy load

Page 46: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

46 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

2. Growth in delinquency levels outplacing growth in volumes;

a sense of déjà vu?

1. Six years after the start of crisis, mortgage books

are still very fragile

What should we be ready for? Six examples from around the world that are or will be relevant everywhere

3. Government caps credit card limits and rate

4. Creation of the Financial Conduct Authority: a new paradigm

for banking is clearly emerging

5. Robust and good quality growth in auto finance, one of few

lending products doing really well for borrowers and lenders

6. Banks and telecoms working together – a terrific ground

for smart decision analytics Philippines

UK

UK

Turkey

Russia

Spain

Page 47: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

47 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

In conclusion…

Image source: wilcomarine services.co.nz

Page 48: Vision 2014: Macroeconomic and Market Trends US and Global Perspectives

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