Upload
experian
View
199
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Review what’s new regarding consumer credit trends and the economy, nationally and internationally. We’ll share overall metrics, current credit health and the results of a recent payment hierarchy trend analysis.
Citation preview
© 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.
Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in
any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
Macroeconomic and market trends – U.S. and global perspectives
Mark Fleming CoreLogic
Marc Gaudart Experian
#vision2014
Michele Raneri Experian
2 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
We can finally exhale…
3 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
…but we need to still be vigilant
4 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Global consumer credit map Consumer credit outstanding and growth
Source: Sofinco consumer credit world wide 2011 and 2012
$3.4 Trillion
$404 Billion
$132 Billion
$1.8 Trillion
$2.4 Trillion
$121Billion -1%
+5.5%
+13.5%
+14.9%
+7.7%
+2.6%
5 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
U.S.
Euro area
Central & Eastern Europe
What’s going on today in the U.S., Europe and Brazil Summary
GDP Growth (%) Unemployment (%)
1.9
Brazil
2013 2014 forecast 2013 2014 forecast
Latin America
Developed Asia Pacific
Developing Asia (ex. China & India)
China
India
Russia
-0.4
2.8
UK
1.0
1.7 2.4
2.5 2.8
1.5 2.0
2.3 2.3
2.6 3.0
?? ??
6.5 6.7
6.5 6.7
4.4 5.4
Source: IMF - World Economic Outlook Projections, Consensus Economics, Focus Economics. The Economist
7.4 6.5
12.1 12.0
7.6 6.9
4.8 5.7
4.1 4.1
5.7 5.5
8-14
4.8-11
1.8-6
3-6
9.9
6 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
U.S. economic and
credit trends
Michele Raneri
Experian
Vice President, Analytics
7 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Consumer confidence improving year-over-year
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
3Q
77
4Q
78
1Q
80
2Q
81
3Q
82
4Q
83
1Q
85
2Q
86
3Q
87
4Q
88
1Q
90
2Q
91
3Q
92
4Q
93
1Q
95
2Q
96
3Q
97
4Q
98
1Q
00
2Q
01
3Q
02
4Q
03
1Q
05
2Q
06
3Q
07
4Q
08
1Q
10
2Q
11
3Q
12
4Q
13
Consumer confidence index
= Recession
YoY:
+20.4 pts
Peak 3Q 2000
Low 1Q 2009
8 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Unemployment rates forecast to come down
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2014, Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, December 2013
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Unemployment rate
FOMC forecast
Oct 2009
10.0%
Apr 2000
3.8%
Dec 1982
10.8%
9 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
U.S. jobs gained or lost
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
1-Month Net Change (thousands)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2014
10 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
U.S. jobs gained or lost
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
1-Month Net Change (thousands) Unemployment rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2014
11 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Unemployment change by state
Percent change in unemployment rate from
October 2009 to March 2014
12 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Drought covers large portion of western U.S.
Source: NOAA / National Weather Service, Author: David Miskus, NOAA/NAWS/NCEP/CPC
Abnormally
Dry
Exceptional
Drought
13 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Drivers of gasoline prices
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. gas price (regular all formulations)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
14 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Bankcard originations
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
$65.8 BN
15 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Distribution of bankcard loan originations By VantageScore® band
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
A B C D F
16 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Average VantageScore® Bankcard inquiries and originations
Spread between inquiries and originations
61 32 34 52 60 49 54 70 85 66 61 67 86 58 51 67 57 45 54 59 52 46 46 54 48 44 41
600
650
700
750
800
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
Bankcard inquiries Originations
17 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Bankcard late stage delinquency rates
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1Q
06
2Q
06
3Q
06
4Q
06
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
60-89 DPD 90-180 DPD
Percent balances
18 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Bankcard delinquency rates By state
Best/worst five states* 4Q13 national bankcard
60-89 DPD rate 0.56%
1. Wyoming 0.32%
2. North Dakota 0.33%
3. Alaska 0.34%
4. Vermont 0.43%
5. Montana 0.44%
…
47. Arkansas 0.66%
48. Nevada 0.66%
49. Alabama 0.67%
50. Mississippi 0.71%
51. Arizona 0.73%
*Includes District of Columbia
Source: Experian IntelliViewSM
4Q09
High Low
0.70% 0.43%
4Q13
19 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Retail originations
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
$20.59 B
20 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Distribution of retail loan originations By VantageScore® band
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
A B C D F
21 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Retail late stage delinquency rates
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1Q
06
2Q
06
3Q
06
4Q
06
1Q
07
2Q
07
3Q
07
4Q
07
1Q
08
2Q
08
3Q
08
4Q
08
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
60-89 DPD 90-180 DPD
Percent balances
22 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Retail delinquency rates By state
Best/worst five states* 4Q13 national retail
60-89 DPD rate 1.01%
1. North Dakota 0.55%
2. Nebraska 0.64%
3. Iowa 0.70%
4. Wisconsin 0.79%
5. Minnesota 0.80%
…
47. Vermont 1.18%
48. Alabama 1.18%
49. Arizona 1.19%
50. New Mexico 1.29%
51. Arkansas 1.34%
*Includes District of Columbia
Source: Experian IntelliViewSM
4Q09
High Low
1.23% 0.76%
4Q13
23 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Mortgage trends
Mark Fleming
CoreLogic
Chief Economist
24 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Constrained Only In Specific Dimensions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200Credit Score Less Than 620
LTV Share 90 And Above
DTI Share 40 And Above
Low & No Doc Share
Arm Share
Purchase Share
Normal Current Maximum
Source: CoreLogic, October 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights
reserved
Mortgage Underwriting, Loan Type, and Purpose Measured as a Percentage of "Normal"
In Which Dimension Is Credit Constrained
25 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Equity Isn’t Constrained- A Good Thing Given Few Have It
LTV Cohort Origination Share, First Lien Purchase Only
Source: CoreLogic September 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-0
0
Ma
y-0
0
Sep-0
0
Jan-0
1
Ma
y-0
1
Sep-0
1
Jan-0
2
Ma
y-0
2
Sep-0
2
Jan-0
3
Ma
y-0
3
Sep-0
3
Jan-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Sep-0
4
Jan-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Sep-0
5
Jan-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Sep-0
7
Jan-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Sep-1
3
75%+ - 80% 80%+ - 85% 85%+ - 90% 90%+ - 95% 95%+ - 100%
26 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Creditworthiness Is Key- Low Credit Score Lending Non-Existent
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%Jan-0
3
Ma
y-0
3
Sep-0
3
Jan-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Sep-0
4
Jan-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Sep-0
5
Jan-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Sep-0
7
Jan-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Sep-1
3
Up to 619 620 to 639 640 to 699 700 to 779 780+
Source: CoreLogic October 2013 ©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights
Credit Score Cohort Origination Share, First Lien Purchase Only
27 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Rising Rates Push Borrowers out of the Money and Reduce Future Turnover
Share of Total Mortgages
Source: CoreLogic October 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
< 4.00% 4.00 <- 4.50% 4.50 <- 5.00% 5.00 <- 5.50% 5.50 <- 6.00% 6.00 <- 6.50% 6.50 <- 7.00% > 7.00%
Current Interest Rate on Active Mortgages
Underwriting Constrained
High Rate Borrower, 10+%
28 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Shadow Inventory- Continued Improvement
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan-0
6
Apr-
06
Jul-0
6
Oct-
06
Jan-0
7
Apr-
07
Jul-0
7
Oct-
07
Jan-0
8
Apr-
08
Jul-0
8
Oct-
08
Jan-0
9
Apr-
09
Jul-0
9
Oct-
09
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-1
0
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-1
1
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Oct-
12
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct-
13
Serious Delinquency Shadow Inventory FCL Shadow Inventory REO Shadow Inventory
Source: CoreLogic October 2013
In Thousands, Not Seasonally Adjusted
29 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Future Homeowners are Only Just Recovering
Household Formation Rate- YOY Growth Rate
Source: Census 2012
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Less than 25 years 25 to 35 years 35 to 55 years 55 years and over
30 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Institutional Investors are Participating but by Different Sale Types
Institutional Investor Share of Purchases
Source: CoreLogic, September 2013
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
New Construction REO Resale Short Sale
31 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Have Down Payment, Will Travel…
Source: CoreLogic Q3 2013
Insufficient Equity (80+ LTV) Share
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
NV
FL
MS
OH
AZ
GA
NE IL
TN
LA
AR
OK
NH
MD MI
SC
CO AL
WI
NC
VA
NM R
I
KY
DE IA
MO
MN
NJ
WA
UT
WV
AK ID
OR
KS
CT
CA
PA IN
MA
WY
DC
TX
ME
MT
NY
Insufficient Equity (80+ LTV)
32 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Fire Burn and Caldron Bubble?
Impressive Year-Over-Year Growth as of December 2013 Data, yet Month-Over-Month is Indicating no
Growth
Source: CoreLogic HPI, HPI Forecast December 2013
HPI YOY %Chg
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-0
0
Jun-0
0
No
v-0
0
Apr-
01
Sep-0
1
Feb
-02
Jul-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ma
y-0
3
Oct-
03
Ma
r-0
4
Aug-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jun-0
5
No
v-0
5
Apr-
06
Sep-0
6
Feb
-07
Jul-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
Oct-
08
Ma
r-0
9
Aug-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jun-1
0
No
v-1
0
Apr-
11
Sep-1
1
Feb
-12
Jul-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ma
y-1
3
Oct-
13
Ma
r-1
4
Aug-1
4
Jan-1
5
Jun-1
5
No
v-1
5
Including Distressed Excluding Distressed
33 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
Ownership Status Matters for Affordability
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
Jan-0
0
Jun-0
0
No
v-0
0
Apr-
01
Sep-0
1
Feb
-02
Jul-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ma
y-0
3
Oct-
03
Ma
r-0
4
Aug-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jun-0
5
No
v-0
5
Apr-
06
Sep-0
6
Feb
-07
Jul-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
Oct-
08
Ma
r-0
9
Aug-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jun-1
0
No
v-1
0
Apr-
11
Sep-1
1
Feb
-12
Jul-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ma
y-1
3
Oct-
13
First-Time Homebuyer Existing Homeowner
Affordability Index
First-Time Homebuyer and Existing Homeowner Affordability
Source: CoreLogic October 2013 © 2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.
34 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
House Price Undervaluation Expected to Persist
Source: CoreLogic January 2014
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
© 2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved
Actual Prices Relative to Fundamental Prices (%)-Population Weighted Composite of top 50 Markets
35 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
©2014 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Private & Confidential @corelogicecon
What Do You See- The Many Dimensions of Housing Success
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Total Sales
HPI, YOY%Chg
SeriouslyDelinquent
Rate
ForeclosureRate
NegativeEquity Share
HousingStarts
Normal
Current
Source: Source: IHS, CoreLogic December 2013
36 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
UK economic and
credit trends
Marc Gaudart
Experian
Global Head of Consulting
37 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Secured and unsecured new lending per month £ billions
32.0
13.5
10.1
17.6
16.6 17.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ju
n-0
7
Sep
-07
De
c-0
7
Ma
r-08
Ju
n-0
8
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8
Ma
r-09
Ju
n-0
9
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Sep
-10
De
c-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Sep
-11
De
c-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Sep
-12
De
c-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Secured
Unsecured
In the UK, new lending volumes have reached pre-crisis levels
for unsecured consumer lending; securing lending is growing again,
but still below pre-crisis level
38 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Bank of England write-off rates Percentage
Source: Bank of England
1.86
4.29 5.19
2.40
0.79
2.61
9.21
11.12
2.30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
200
2Q
4
200
3Q
2
200
3Q
4
200
4Q
2
200
4Q
4
200
5Q
2
200
5Q
4
200
6Q
2
200
6Q
4
200
7Q
2
200
7Q
4
200
8Q
2
200
8Q
4
200
9Q
2
200
9Q
4
201
0Q
2
201
0Q
4
201
1Q
2
201
1Q
4
201
2Q
2
201
2Q
4
201
3Q
2
Credit Cards
Personal Loans
Write-off rates for unsecured lending have improved significantly
in the last two years…
39 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Bank of England quarterly mortgage write-off rates Percentage
0.11
0.03
0.08
0.02
0.01
0.09
0.04
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
199
3Q
4
199
4Q
4
199
5Q
4
199
6Q
4
199
7Q
4
199
8Q
4
199
9Q
4
200
0Q
4
200
1Q
4
200
2Q
4
200
3Q
4
200
4Q
4
200
5Q
4
200
6Q
4
200
7Q
4
200
8Q
4
200
9Q
4
201
0Q
4
201
1Q
4
201
2Q
4
… and so have write-off rates for secured lending, but still not back
to pre-crisis levels
Source: Bank of England
40 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Example 1: Spain
Sources: INE (Spanish National Statistics Agency), Bank of Spain (Central Bank), Experian Global consulting Practice
Six years after the start of the crisis, mortgage books are still very fragile,
despite a significant tightening of lending criteria
Better use of data and analytics
Deployment of state-of-the-art collections platforms
Involvement of large branch networks in collections activities
Change of approach to using external debt collection agencies
Sale of assets to investment funds
Spanish banks have overhauled
their collections practices,
including:
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
New mortgage lending by year, € (billions)
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Mortgage delinquency rate, %
0.37
2.84
2.38
5.08
96 122
157
188 184
117
77 71 46
28 20
41 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Example 2: Russia
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Russia consumer lending 2004-2013,
RUB (billions)
1,200
9,400
+25% CAGR
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
12
420
+49% CAGR
Russia 90+ DPD volumes 2004-2013,
RUB (billions)
Sources: Central Bank of Russia, Experian Global consulting Practice
Delinquency levels outpacing growth in volumes, a sense of déjà vu?
42 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Example 3: Turkey
Sources: Turkish Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency; Experian Global Consulting Practice
Government caps credit card limits and rate
Credit limit across all cards cannot exceed four times monthly salary
Revolving is forbidden for certain merchant category transactions, such as food, jewelry, fuel, telecoms, etc.
Monthly repayment must be higher than 30% of balance for balances below TL15,000 and 35% of balances for balances above TL15,000
2013-2014 regulations
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
4.3
83.8
+31% CAGR
Turkish credit card lending 2002-2013,
TL (billions)
43 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Example 4: UK
“As a regulator we look at the way financial organisations treat their customers, and the way they behave
towards them. By regulating conduct we mean that we regulate the way these organisations behave towards
the consumer, for example, making sure they give enough information about the product they are selling.”
The FCA was created in the UK on April 1, 2013:
The six outcomes to treating customers fairly:
1: Consumers can be confident that they are dealing with firms where the fair
treatment of customers is central to the corporate culture.
2: Products and services marketed and sold in the retail market are designed to
meet the needs of identified consumer groups and are targeted accordingly.
3: Consumers are provided with clear information and are kept appropriately informed before, during and after the point of sale.
4: Where consumers receive advice, the advice is suitable and
takes account of their circumstances.
5: Consumers are provided with products that perform as firms have led them to expect, and the associated service is of an acceptable standard and as they have been led to expect.
6: Consumers do not face unreasonable post-sale barriers imposed by firms to change product, switch provider, submit a claim or make a complaint.
Source: FCA website; Experian Global Consulting Practice
Creation of the Financial Conduct Authority: A new paradigm for banking
is emerging
A deeper, more
detailed understanding
of customer
circumstances is
critical to fair lending,
and is now required
by regulator. Data
and analytics-driven
decisioning is
fundamental.
44 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Example 5: UK
Source: UK Finance & Leasing Association; Experian Global consulting Practice
Robust and good quality growth in auto finance industry
Understanding
purpose of loan and
providing good point-
of-sale customer
experience can drive
good lending.
Data and analytics
decisioning is key
What’s going on:
2011 2012 2013
UK Motor Finance New Lending, ₤ (billions)
50%
50%
56%
44%
58%
42%
13.7 16.7
20.8
New
Used
Growth in auto finance lending in the UK has largely been driven by captive auto lenders, supporting new car sales
Quality of lending has been significantly better than any other form of lending except mortgages during the period
This has driven car registration numbers growth in the UK, significantly larger than European Union average
Captive lenders have captured a sound, growing market, that traditional banks have not focused on
Implications:
45 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Example 6: Philippines
Sources: Banko, Globe, BPI websites; Experian Micro Analytics
An origination credit scoring system that includes: Airtime top-up patterns (for example, do you top-up large
amounts once a month or small amounts every other day?); Voice and SMS usage; Mobile Money utilization (cash in/out, transfers, utility payment,
etc.) Information gathered directly from the borrower (for example
income, marital status, etc.); Information available externally (for example, where available,
from a credit bureau);
An automated customer management system to send alerts to borrowers to remind them of a due payment, to increase or decrease dynamically exposure to good / bad borrowers, to streamline the management of overdue payments.
A credit risk agent management system to dynamically rank agents by the quality of the clients they have introduced to the bank and to calculate and disburse risk adjusted commissions. In addition the system alerts agents when some of their introduced clients are late to allow early collections actions.
An enhanced mobile interface for the end clients that allows them to manage their credit product and review for example when the installment is due, make anticipated payments, request additional credit lines, etc., all managed in an automated and real time fashion.
How to manage credit risk on mobile loans:
Banks and telecoms working together – a terrific ground for smart decision
analytics
Example partnership:
Globe:
38M
subscribers
Bank of Philippines Islands: 6M customers
Products:
Send money
Pay bills
Savings
Insurance
Loans
Buy load
46 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
2. Growth in delinquency levels outplacing growth in volumes;
a sense of déjà vu?
1. Six years after the start of crisis, mortgage books
are still very fragile
What should we be ready for? Six examples from around the world that are or will be relevant everywhere
3. Government caps credit card limits and rate
4. Creation of the Financial Conduct Authority: a new paradigm
for banking is clearly emerging
5. Robust and good quality growth in auto finance, one of few
lending products doing really well for borrowers and lenders
6. Banks and telecoms working together – a terrific ground
for smart decision analytics Philippines
UK
UK
Turkey
Russia
Spain
47 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
In conclusion…
Image source: wilcomarine services.co.nz
48 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
For additional information, please contact:
[email protected] | #MLRaneri
Hear the latest from Vision 2014
in the Daily Roundup:
www.experian.com/vision/blog
@ExperianVision | #vision2014
Follow us on Twitter
49 © 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Visit the Experian Expert Bar to learn more about
the topics and products covered in this presentation.