U.S. employment rate data and trends April 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

More bright spots emerge on the

heels of largest growth in two years

U.S. employment situation: April 2014 May 2, 2014

What were March’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

• Total non-farm employment

increased by 288,000 jobs, the

highest one-month net change since

January 2012.

• Unemployment fell by 40 basis

points to 6.3 percent, the lowest rate

during the recovery so far.

• Revisions to previous months, along

with strong employment growth in

April, means that the U.S. economy

is only 113,000 jobs away from

previous peak employment, which

will likely occur in May.

• Gains were highly diverse in April,

with PBS, the leader this month, only

responsible for 26.0 percent of jobs

added. Only transportation and

warehousing and information posted

contractions over the month.

• Unemployment for high school and

college graduates remained stable at

6.3 and 3.3 percent, respectively.

• Tech still leading; energy, mining and

utilities growth is stabilizing at around

2.1 percent.

• Initial unemployment claims remain

below 350,000.

• Consumer confidence remained in

the low 80 point rage, in line with

drops in unemployment and

continued diversification of the

recovery.

• Online help wanted ads increased

slightly in April as the economy

continued to slowly improve.

• Job growth is still strongest in

Sunbelt but moving to other

geographies.

• Midwestern and East Coast

geographies continue to grapple

with below-average employment

growth, some still contracting.

• Despite falling to 12.3 percent, total

unemployment remains elevated.

• Weaker growth in financial activities

and information is pulling down

office-using job growth. While other

subsectors saw higher gains, office-

using growth was moderate.

• Goods-producing employment is on

the up, but is unstable.

• The labor force participation rate for

high school graduates declined

once again and currently rests at

58.0 percent.

• Another 24,000 temporary jobs

were added to the economy.

Overview Bright spots Challenges

OVERVIEW

Employment growth rebounded in April with 288,000

new jobs, the highest growth since January 2012 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

222,

000

203,

000

288,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Apr

-14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

OVERVIEW

Along with revisions, three-month gains total 713,000

as unemployment drops to 6.3 percent

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

78 months into the cycle, total employment is now less

than 0.1 percent below prior peak levels

Rec

over

ed jo

bs (

%)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

Jobs lost during recession…

Jobs gained during recovery…

98.7 percent of jobs have been recovered from the

recession; now 113,000 jobs below pre-recession peak


6

OVERVIEW

Office-using jobs lost

during recession…

Office-using jobs gained

during recovery…

All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now

an emphasis on management, tech and design


7

OVERVIEW

-3.0

-2.7

1.0

5.7

6.0

9.0

11.0

12.0

15.0

15.0

15.7

24.0

27.9

28.0

32.0

34.5

40.0

75.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Information

Transportation and warehousing

Nondurable goods

Motor vehicles and parts

Financial activities

Mining and logging

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Government

Other services

Wholesale trade

Temporary help services

Health care and social assistance

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Retail trade

Education and health services

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

PBS, leading in April, captured only one-quarter of new

jobs, demonstrated sustained diversity in gains


8

OVERVIEW

PBS

Education and health

Retail trade

All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

51.9 percent of

monthly

growth.

-32.0

-6.0

8.0

49.0

53.0

54.0

63.4

91.0

99.0

105.0

125.9

189.0

242.9

275.7

326.9

327.0

412.0

666.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Information

Government

Nondurable goods

Mining and logging


Other services

Motor vehicles and parts

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale trade

Construction

Temporary help services

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Education and health services


Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS


Education and health

Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Year-on-year, however, core subsectors were the drivers

of activity, accounting for four in five new jobs


9

Core subsectors added 80.0 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

OVERVIEW

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Both private and public sector hiring is on the up,

although the latter is still seeing net 2-year contractions

Private sector hiring up 4.6

million since April 2012

Public sector shed 62,000 workers

since April 2012


10

BRIGHT SPOT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Despite drops across the board, high school and college

graduate unemployment largely remains stable

3.3%

6.3%


11

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech still leading as energy, mining and utilities stabilizes

at 2.1 percent

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through March 2014.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing

slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims stay below

350,000 for 17 consecutive months despite slight uptick

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

BRIGHT SPOT

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Consumer confidence stable in the low 80s as

unemployment drops

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

BRIGHT SPOT

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

Onl

ine

help

wan

ted

ads

Online help wanted ads

Unemployment rate

Online help wanted ads up slightly in line with drops in

unemployment

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

16

BRIGHT SPOT

Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt continue to see

fastest employment growth; spreading geographically


17

BRIGHT SPOT

Silicon Valley

4.3%

Houston

2.9%

Dallas

3.0%

Austin

3.9%

Raleigh-

Durham

3.7%

South

Florida

3.1%

Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest

of the country in growth


18

CHALLENGE

Westchester

County

0.4%

Cleveland

0.6%

Detroit

-0.2%

Philadelphia

0.1%

Pittsburgh

-0.5%

Milwaukee

0.3%

Total unemployment fell to 12.3 percent, but has yet to

reach the 10-year average

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


19

CHALLENGE

Weak financial activities and information employment

is dragging down office-using employment growth…


20

CHALLENGE

…which did not see the same monthly gains as other

subsectors did

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In April 2014, it represented all 26.0 percent of new office jobs.


21

CHALLENGE

Goods-producing employment on the up, but still

suppressed due to neutral non-durable goods growth

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


22

CHALLENGE

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

58

59

60

61

62

63

College graduates

High school grads no college

Labor force participation for high school graduates

drops to just 58.0 percent

Col

lege

gra

duat

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

(%)

High school graduate participation (%

)


23

CHALLENGE

Temporary help services still a fast grower, up 24,000 in

April to 2.9 million temporary jobs

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


24

CHALLENGE

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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U.S. employment rate data and trends April 2014