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Presented at the CCIM Institute's fall conference, CCIM Thrive, October 21, 2014, by The Economy Decoded panelist, Ken McCarthy.
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OCTOBER 21, 2014
US ECONOMIC AND MARKET UPDATE
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
2
Cushman & Wakefield Research
OVERVIEW
■2014: Economy taking off– Weak first quarter, strong second– Second half projected even stronger– Rapid job and income growth anticipated
■Drivers of growth– Businesses shift from defense to offense– Consumers accelerate spending growth-pent up demand– Relative stability in Washington– Tech, Energy
■ Potential Headwinds– Global volatility– Fed tapering-when and how will interest rates rise– Strength of European recovery/APAC
■Real Estate Impact– Stronger employment-healthier markets– Tech/energy dominated markets remain among the best– Supply remains constrained in most markets-industrial construction picking
up– Densification trend
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
3
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchEMPLOYMENT GROWTH
COMPARED TO LONG TERM RECOVER AVERAGE
-7,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000Average Re-
covery: 2,081
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
4
Cushman & Wakefield Research
225,000
275,000
325,000
375,000
425,000
Mill
ion
s of
20
09
Dolla
rs
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. RETAIL SALES
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
5
Cushman & Wakefield Research
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. RETAIL SALES-INTERNET SHARE OF GAFO
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
6
Cushman & Wakefield Research
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 201460
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000=
100
Source: American Trucking Association
TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
7
Cushman & Wakefield Research
U.S. RECESSION/RECOVERY PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRYEmployment Change Since January 2008
Jan-08Jul-0
8Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10Jul-1
0Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12Jul-1
2Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14Jul-1
4-14.0%
-9.0%
-4.0%
1.0%
6.0%
Total Financial
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
8
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT VS.
VACANCY
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
26,500
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
Perc
ent
Thousa
nds
of
Pers
ons
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cushman & Wakefield Research
www.cushmanwakefield.com
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