1

The risk from the point of view of an Actuary: a simplified view

Prof.. Eng. Antonio Fernando Navarro[1]

The word Risk us dates back to a number of interpretations, as is the degree of

knowledge, level and objective of who analyzes. However, always is associated, in any case:

uncertainty, failure, danger, loss or damage. It is customary to associate the risk to these issues,

when in fact the risk is a direct consequence of the Danger. Simplified way can represent the

sequencing where the risk is entered as:

The risk, in our representation. Is a result of the Danger, or dangerous situation, which

expose the risk the worker and that have high probability of leading to an accident. The risks can be

caused by a number of situations can be perceived in a similar sequence, which ends up causing the

losses and damage, said accidents, such as the following will. The first step in manifestation of risk

is the emergence of a deviation, or lack of compliance with a procedure, standard or even Law.

Exposure can cause an incident, that represents an event without the manifestation of the accident

itself, i.e. it is a "near accident". The following steps, immediate or not, depending on the actions of

blockade, are the accident without absence, lost-time accident and fatal accident. Many scholars

tend to represent this sequencing through Pyramids of deviations, with heights, where report

probability relations between each of these levels:

Conceptually, the risks are all failures occurring in a given phase or time and not at all

expected. Failure is translated as a triggering event of personal, financial or material losses. The

risk, or the event, against which it is elaborating a plan of prevention or elimination of losses, must

meet some special features, such as: be future; uncertain; possible; independent of the will of the

parties, lead to a loss, which can be measurable.

With the purpose of reducing the severity or seriousness of damages seeks to understand

how and why the risk is manifested, the periodicity of these manifestations, or frequency of

occurrences or events, and the extent of the losses experienced or observed. Still, seeking means to

reduce the extent of the losses to other environments, sites or equipment, with the job of protection

mechanisms, confining the consequences of events. Known the occurrence or manifestation and

what might be affected by the risk provide protection measures or implement the actions of

2

blockade for the containment of risks. For an Actuary, risk is your tool of analysis. Through the

interpretation of the information can be defined the conditions of acceptance of risks and the

actuarial rates that must be applied, necessary and sufficient to cover the cost of payments for any

loss or damage, said claims, as well as, through the verification of frequencies of occurrences, set

the franchises.

With the information obtained through the application of techniques adopted in risk

management and the use of specific methodologies one can quantify and qualify risks, aiming to

obtain its real magnitude or mathematical expression.

The qualification is the identification of the type of risk or quality, if we can so to

speak regarding the characteristics of the events that may arise. For example, it is a risk of fire,

explosion, electrical damage, etc.. The qualification is more easily understood than the definition of

degrees of losses. Depending on the environments and existing there equipment, operating mode,

and other features over the Actuary will be able to know which is the dominant risk, identifying the

activity capable of generating risks, which may be independent or converging on the occurrence, in

this case, increasing losses. E.g.: a delivery man of matches that uses a moto is a risk for an actuary.

Its activity is dangerous and threatening. This can be compounded or potentiated if the Professional

does not adopt a defensive posture toward the vehicle, because may collide or fall more easily than

if you follow certain procedures in the rules of traffic. In another example, a 12:0 am opera

equipment per day. the person in charge of maintenance sector realizes the equipment presents a

unusual noise characteristic of mechanical component wear. Because of continuous operation with

maintenance interventions are limited. In this case there is a convergence of factors – versus

maintenance operation. The expected result is the parade of the equipment for repairs, with the

unscheduled interruption of production.

The quantification is the determination of the value of the loss, expressed as a

percentage of the value of the goods or in absolute values, or the size of the injury to verify in the

future. The risk, if it occurs, you will be able to generate a loss that will affect 48% of industry

assets. The potential loss is about $ 500,000. There are several ways to assess the extent of the

losses and the losses. The fastest way is through the analysis of the statistics of payments of

indemnities, that when the Actuary has such information. There are other more technical forms that

involve risk analyses.

Talk of a risk is commenting on something that is likely to occur in an industrial

undertaking, bringing with it material damage or personal injury. Damages for losses it

differentiates we consider that the damage is the damage suffered by an asset, and asset losses are

3

commonly related to an asset or financial reduction. The characteristics of risk framework, already

reported, the risk is something future, or which may occur in the next moment, capable of causing

damage. However, it should be pointed out that for its correct measurement is no need of this

damage can be sized and evaluated. If the risk exists but there is no financial loss or material

damage cannot assign it a cost. This is extremely relevant in any analysis or process of risk

treatment, including for its measurement. The risks can be found in various activities, such as:

• surgical procedures;

• financial operations;

• civil constructions;

• industrial assemblies;

• implementation of projects, etc.

the) pure risks

The pure risk are those where there are only two possibilities: to lose or not to lose.

There is no chance of anything happening, i.e. almost the risk materialized.

b) speculative risks

In the speculative risks there is possibility, in addition to the loss or loss, not gain. The

additional component of this framework is the gain, which until then was not addressed. In a game,

whatever it is, you can lose, you can win and you can lose if there is no participation of the player.

The speculative risk is differentiated from other risks by owning an additional component, this

component gain non-existent in other event categories. For example, the analysis of a real estate

venture, in release, is a speculative risk, since it can result in a gain. Applications in financial

markets also are speculative risks.

c) risks volunteers

Volunteers are the risks incurred by the company consciously or by its employees. The

death of soldiers during a war fought between two countries is a risk the country's voluntary

attacker. Navigation in a raging sea is a voluntary risk of Commander of the vessel. Cross walk a

Grand Boulevard with the pedestrian signal closed is a voluntary pedestrian's own risk. Risks

volunteers may also be identified as those in which there is a voluntary act which induces human

participation in the event. The child who light a fire are practicing a voluntary risk, because she

wants to, i.e. want to light the fire. Can be practicing the Act of consciously or not. The voluntary

risk fits in the category of pure risks.

4

d) accidental Risks

Accidental Risks are the risks incurred without voluntary contribution for that purpose.

The collapse of a building, the flooding of a stockyard are accidental risks. The risks to which they

are subject the builders are also accidental risks. So there is no conflict of interpretation accidental

risks can be framed within the characteristics of those arising from normal activities of a company,

generated by accident. In the same way as voluntary risks, accidental risks are also pure risks.

e) random Risks)

Random Risks are those that occur without human participation, such as: earthquakes,

earthquakes, windstorms, natural hurricanes, floods, floods. In the language of insurance are

considered the events of external cause. Random risks are also known as risks of nature. The

randomness of risks indicates that cannot be predicted, and may occur at any time.

With the evolution of computing, the man can model parameters of nature, with a very

low margin of error. Weather-level analyses already indicate a prediction with up to 5 days in

advance, with margins of error of less than 5%. More powerful computers can increase the

percentage of Reliability of information, helping the farmers in their tasks. That doesn't mean the

risks with these analyses will be leaving of owning some of those particularities inherent to them,

namely, that of being possible futures, uncertain, independent of the will of the parties, able to

generate losses or damages, and of showing damage that may come to be measured. A second

classification defines risk as:

Static

Dynamic

a) Dynamic Risks

Are products derived from the speculative financial activity. The risk of a successful

launch real estate is a dynamic risk, in the same way that the launch of a new product in the

consumer market. These risks are not normally subject to a Risk management process. Among the

factors that prevent a more careful assessment are: dependence on external factors, such as

economic situations; inadequate implementation of the project or the project per company or person

that took into account or was not properly informed of important parameters.

b) Static Hazards

Are all those in which the effectuation of the event can or should assume a loss or a

reduction in the human or material heritage of the company. A fire or a flood risk are static. The

determination of the magnitude or severity of the static risks must be made on the following data:

5

• randomness of loss occurrences;

• frequency of occurrences;

• average values of losses;

• cumulative values of losses predictable and expected;

• maximum damage likely-DMP;

• normal expected loss – PNE;

• maximum possible loss, and other statistical data.

To the extent that it sets a frequency of occurrences, quantifying it and to evaluate the

likely extension of the losses has been a real notion of the magnitude of the risk, its size or

expression. This design enables one to determine the risk, in numerical terms. Any risk assessment

process always leads to empirical data. When it is said that the probability of a person killed by the

electrical discharge of lightning is 0.0000001% is not stating that every 1,000,000 people die an

electrocuted. I mean that from a universe of people studied, the number of deaths by electrocution is

1 for every 1,000,000. Thus, the frequency of occurrence is 1 for every 1,000,000, or 1: 1,000,000.

Still dealing with the same example of drop discharge of lightning, the measure of risk is given

mainly by two parameters, namely:

# frequency: an accident every 1,000,000 of sample persons;

# gravity: a death by electrocution or death for each portion of the population subject to

risk.

In the industrial segment are used techniques of reliability engineering for the

measurement of risks, in addition to several existing risk management techniques, involving

concepts of Reliability. Through the application of risk management concepts can arrive, during his

studies, as well as close to the time of occurrence of the event generator from damage, through the

study of past behavior of these same events, in different circumstances and in other companies, and

the use of actuarial and statistical concepts. Today, more accurate studies inform us, with a hit

probability almost next to 100%, which the dominant risk, which the loss that he could generate,

and when will be the time when that might occur. It is important to underline that certainty of 100%

is not yet for us, humans. But for those who had a higher dose of uncertainty already means a great

evolution.

To be able to generate damage a risk materializes in function of a never-ending number

of situations. It's like the project to launch a space probe out of the solar system in order to study

other celestial bodies. So that the venture will succeed, and they also hope that everything will work

out with the launch vehicle and spacecraft, must wait for the alignment of the planets, which only

comes to occur at defined time intervals, and yet you have absolutely certain of the success of the

mission. Is what we call the imponderable. The risk management evaluates the imponderable. You

6

get to determine through risk assessment techniques, what are the chances of having success in the

venture, and what are the odds of having a failure. For simpler analysis models, you can find out the

likely causative factors of failure. So, prepare yourself predictions with high percentage of hits.

Some techniques of reliability Studies of processes are well trusted and close to 100%. Reliability is

the probability of a system or some of its components come to play satisfactorily the functions

assigned to it in design, in normal conditions of use and operation. Not Reliability, or failure, is

called probability of failure. The set of faults occurring in a time interval is known as failure rate.

Normally attaches itself to the word reliability an almost sure that everything will work

out. For example: I have the utmost confidence that everything will be fine. Ë a definition almost

intuitive. Throw out hand of reliability studies when it wants to analyze the behavior of a system,

with a view to analysis of risk prevention. Reliability studies are also employed in the development

of predictive maintenance plans.

Reliability (R) can be translated as the probability of a piece of equipment, or system,

perform satisfactorily their specific functions, for a given period of time and under certain

conditions. Probability of failure (Q) represents the inverse of Reliability, or Reliability.

Q = 1 - R ⇔⇔⇔⇔ R = 1 - Q

To serial components systems, reliability, assumes the following Setup math:

1 2 3 4 5

For : R1 = 0,90 R2 = 0,90 R3 = 0,90 R4 = 0,90 R5 = 0,90

Rt = R1 x R2 x R3 x R4 x R5 = 0,90 x 0,90 x 0,90 x 0,90 x 0,90 = 0,59 (59%)

To increase the reliability of serial components systems must increase the reliability of each of its

components because reliability total becomes the whole and not of each part of this. For parallel

components systems, reliability, assumes the following Setup:

1

input output

2

To: R1 = 0.90

R2 = 0.80

7

Q1 = 1-0.90 = 0.10}

} Qt = Q1 x Q2 = 0.20 x 0.10 = 0.02

Q2 = 1-0.80 = 0.20}

Rt = 1-Qt = 1-0.02 = 0.98 (98%)

Total reliability on systems parallel is greater than the reliability of each of its

components. Applied to studies of Reliability has been the Exponential Law of Reliability.

R = e- λλλλ t = e

-t/T , where:

e = 2.718

λλλλ = failure rate (number of failures per hour of operation or number of operations) t = operating time

T = mean time between failures

T = 1/t

As a numerical example than we present can have the following:

{4 faults in 1,000 hours of operation; { λλλλ = 0.004; {T = 250 hours;

TMEF = T = 0.25 x 105 hours}

t = 1,000 hours}λ= 1/T = 1/(0.25 x 10)5 = 4 x 10-5 faults/hour e = 2.718}

R = e- λλλλ t = and-4 x 10-5 x

103 = 0.9608 (96.08%)

Q = 1-R = 1-0.9608 = 0.0392 (3.92%)

The techniques employed in the studies of reliability may vary according to the

objectives initially proposed for the analysis of situations. Some of which we employ are as

follows:

I) Checklist

The Check List is a method is general, with qualitative approaches, i.e. diagnose risk

situations from a certain scenario, evaluated by means of pre-set questions. For this reason should

not be employed as a single method. Actually, this is a report prepared in advance, specific to each

system, are kept, which register data that will serve as a basis for other methods. Usually it is a

description of the system and its safety and operating conditions.

The success of the Check-list job depends a lot of subsequent analyses that follow, as

well as the intended results. The reports are likely to be extremely complex or on the contrary,

addressing only a few subjects. Generally contains a group of basic questions that will be issued to

operators of equipment, which analysed along with other data, will allow approximate risk profiles

are drawn. For example, we will assume that if you want to perform an evening lecture in a

8

classroom. The minimum essential requirements could be analyzed through the Check List, as

follows:

1. What are the conditions of cleaning the environment?

excellent good poor regular

2. There are pens for the class?

Yes No

3. the air conditioning system is working?

Yes No

4. storage of the chairs is according to plan?

Yes No

5. There is a sufficient number of chairs when attached?

Yes No

6. the lighting of the lamps is correct?

Yes No

7. is there a maintenance team to solve any problems that may arise?

Yes No

8. someone will be in charge of accompanying the speaker?

Yes No

9. There was sufficient disclosure to the event?

Yes No

10. equipment in support of the speaker are working fully?

Yes No

For the analysis to be complete you must assess what's missing so that the event is not

catastrophic failure. Thus, if the conditions are not good cleaning clean the room. If there are no

pens within the speaker cannot write. If the air conditioner is not working and is a very hot season

there will be discomfort. If the chairs are not stowed must fix them. If the fixtures are not lighting

up may not be the talk. And so on. The important thing is not the questionnaire of checks, but rather

its correct interpretation for obtaining the desired result. More experienced Risk managers tend to

prepare Lists of checks (or checklists) to direct the work plan, avoiding what information will be

forgotten. Even the specialists of large companies do not fail to program your questions or doubts.

"I need to check this situation. I must not forget to ask about the last purchase made. Does the X

equipment has undergone a reform lately? " There are always a few key questions, for which we

prepare in advance, noting in our notepads or designing a questionnaire.

II) What if

This is qualitative method, which allows you to reach to the type and size of risk, very

important in employment in general discussions about a system and for the approach of the larger

consequences of an accident. You must always separate, in an accident, the causes of the

consequences. The causes are the facts the generators the reasons for the outbreak of the event. The

consequences are the results. There are a series of classical questions can be made, as for example:

�And if all of a sudden a person crossing the street with the pedestrian signal closed?

�And if the boiler will explode?

�And if the pressure of the steam line up too?

9

The most interesting of the methodology is that for each question there are several

answers. Through these identifies the problem and likely solutions. The purpose of the method is to

identify, through the discussion of the theme the most common problems that can affect the

performance of the system or its components. The methodology brings a greater importance

because Associates causes the consequences. For example: And if the person crossing the street

with the pedestrian signal closed? The cause is the Act itself to cross the street. ë a voluntary act.

The result is what might happen with this pedestrian. You can get run over? is likely to fall to the

ground? You may reach the other side of the road unscathed? The answers could be provided shall

provide the required safety standard to avoid the risk itself.

III) Critical incidents Technique-TIC

This is a qualitative operational technique, which seeks to obtain relevant information

about incidents that occurred during a particular phase or period, reported by witnesses that

experienced. The incidents are the near-accidents, or accidents not loss generators. The

methodology employs mainly interviews with operators or maintainers of systems subject to

studies. Alternatively you can make use of databases, where all accidents or incidents were listed by

type of occurrence. In the naval area one of the most requested databases is the WOAD Statistical

Report (Statistics on Accidents to Offshore Units Engaged in Oil and Gas Activities). The WOAD

Worldwide Offshore Accident Databank, a publication of Det Norske Veritas (DNV) relates

frequencies of accidents, exposure, statistics and various other information which make it possible

to obtain data necessary for the interpretation of the form of occurrence thereof.

The incident is a negative event with the potential to cause damage.

Among the numerous forms of classification of incidents can have:

Class I : Those that cause changes in the planning or in the production.

Class II : Those that cause delays in planning or in production;

Class III : Those that cause outages or failure of planning;

Class IV : Those affecting the physical integrity of individuals;

Some questions involving equipment that accidents are classics, such as those that

follow. It turns out that here too one should not label procedures. Each risk manager can seek to

obtain data more familiar to them or that fit within established concepts. As an example, we cite:

⇒ What kind of accident can occur with this equipment?

• How? • Under what circumstances?

• What was the outcome?

10

• How was controlled? • There was an extension of the damage to other equipment or facilities?

• How long did the outage?

• The replacement of losses was immediate?

⇒ Already some sort of outage occurred?

• What order?

• How long the machine stood there?

• There was no production stop?

• How many accidents have occurred?

• In that time?

• How often?

• What were the types of injury checked and that order?

⇒ How many hours the equipment were stopped?

• Which or what were the reasons for these outages?

• As the restart of operations?

• What were the measures taken during the shutdown and after the resumption of the activities?

The incident is important as statistic because it proves the existence of operational

failures or control, enabling its immediate repair. Generally speaking, with the interviews with

operators of the equipment can obtain numerous information elucidatórias of the most common

operational problems that have occurred in a period of time stipulated for the analysis. The big

question is that, in most cases, you don't have a statistical or mathematical data accuracy, especially

with regard to the date of these occurrences, since most of these are not registered properly, or else

the information provided to the registry are not complete. From there, hop on a table with the

incidents allocated by type of severity of loss.

The technique has a fairly widespread job when there's an insecurity of information

regarding losses. That is, there is no record or that is not so reliable, that might be employed in

mathematical analysis. From there, depending on the amount of reported incidents can make an

extrapolation for obtaining the number of accidents, which is the main objective. In this way, on the

basis of the data obtained and of their correlation you can obtain the ratio between tracks of

incidents. For example, Let's imagine that through a study in an industry obtained information

relating to 100 incidents, occurring in a period of 5 years. Of these 5 were of gravity corresponds to

100% of the value of the goods. The effected analysis led to the following layout:

11

On extrapolation made we can have about 80% of accidents with a gravity of 60%,

approximately 60% of accidents with a gravity of 40%, and about 40% of accidents with a severity

of 20%. Just have the amount of accidents registered to extrapolate the incidents by gravity losses.

With this data determines the cost of risks, losses or insurance, simply information the amount of

accidents. It is customary to employ the method along with others, especially the Check-list and the

preliminary analysis of Risks.

IV) preliminary examination of Risks-APR

It is developed inspection technique for surface analysis of possible risks, its causes,

consequences arising with the materialization of these goods, besides identifying remedial measures

predictive or adopted. In summary, the APR aims to identify dangerous elements of the system, risk

situations, potential faults, etc., determining the severity of their manpower, through simulations.

Preliminary risk analysis seeks to frame the risks according to categories, defined according to the

destructive effects that can be observed, as follows:

• Despicable or +egligenciavel (class I)

Is one that generates subtle effects, leading to physical or environmental degradations

that are not blended easily. This risk category is perfectly absorbed by the company, along with the

cost of maintenance or revision;

• Marginal or Borderline (class II)

Generates moderate controllable events, requiring actions taken but in the medium term.

Are risks that can surprise in terms of losses. Usually the losses are associated with the

consequences of the events;

• Review (Class III)

5 40 60 80 100

12

Substantially affects the environment, equity or people, requiring immediate corrective

actions. That kind of loss is handled through the transfer to an insurance company;

• Catastrophic (Class IV)

Irreversible effects-generating, affecting people, systems, assets or environments.

Almost all Risk managers recommend, as risk treatment technique, i.e. the company must renounce

this activity.

The APR is a qualitative technique, not allowing mathematical measurement of risk.

A Preliminary Analysis report template of risks of a very simple situation is presented

below. It should be noted that the biggest concern is to join the causes to their consequences. In the

model include some with the activity of drawing with graphite on paper:

PRELIMI+ARY A+ALYSIS OF RISKS

ID: elaboration of a drawing using pencil Subsystem: Graphite

Risk Cause Effect Cat.

Risk

Preventive Measures

RIP on paper

Graphite job very hard

Torn paper and drawing disabled

III Hire a softer graphite or a tougher role

Blur in the drawing

Employment of very soft graphite

Blurred drawing and stained paper

III Employ a less soft graphite or a smoother paper

V) analysis of failure modes and effects-AMFE

The technique specifically addresses the way or the way the failure occurs. From the

identification of search mode-evaluate the effects that these failures can cause us subsystems,

systems, units and installations. The AMFE is a method of detailed analysis, generating qualitative

and quantitative results, IE identifies the risk while the measures, enabling the analysis of failures of

equipment, systems and components with estimates of frequency of occurrences (failure rate) and

the determination of the effects or consequences of these same flaws. The technique, also known as

FMEA-Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, consists of studying the system for parts, in sets or

subsets, in the form of block diagrams, analyzing not only the occurrences in isolation as well as the

challenge that exists between these and the remaining subsets. This individualized analysis is

obtained: review of the failure modes of each component; effects that such failures will have on

other components that fail will generate damage to the entire system. As a final result has the

calculation of probability of system failures, generated from the failures of its components.

Logically, through these studies determine the alternatives to reduce the odds of failure.

13

Each failure observed must be analyzed separately as if it were an independent event,

unrelated to the others, except with regard to its consequences which may be the same. The simpler

systems are evaluated more efficient will be the result of the analysis, primarily because it reduces

the variables contributing to occurrences. To complete the analyses in some circumstances are

associated with analytical techniques of fault Trees. In installations of greater complexity and with

many subsystems, or blocks, associates to study another technique called FMECA-Failure Modes

and Effects Criticality Analysis and. In this case, for each failure mode a class of gravity or severity.

In the set studied is the rate of risk or the cost of risk, very important information for the evaluation

of transfer programs or maintenance of risks.

The severity classes are the same as those adopted in the preliminary analysis of Risks,

namely, growing as the severity of losses will increase. The worst situation is one that involves

human lives. Another interesting point is that assesses the loss from a lower to a higher, i.e. of a

subsystem for a system, and that to a unit and hence for the entire enterprise:

Class I : Failed resulting in excessive system maintenance;

Class II : Failed resulting delay or potential loss of immediate availability;

Class III : Failed resulting potential threat to the system or people;

Class IV : Failed resulting potential system and/or loss of human lives;

Especially in complex industrial plants, with a large number of interacting subsystems,

employs the method of HAZOP-Hazards and Operability Study.

VI) fault tree analysis-FTA

Fault Tree analysis is one of the methods of Reliability of the most well-known

Systems. The AAF, also known as FTA-Failure Tree Analysis, was developed in the United States

in the Decade of 60, with the goal of studying the behavior of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

These missiles represented a high unit cost, of millions of dollars and a high risk potential, not only

during storage and transport, but also at the launch. The degrees of adjustment had to be of the order

of 100%. Aside from that fact, when assembling the gun were involved hundreds of companies of

all sizes, from simple to complex washers steering systems of flight. The odds were enormous

material losses. Therefore, assuming a logical reasoning of the occurrence of an undesirable event,

or event Summit, developed an interactive methodology in order to find out what or which the flaws

which, acting together or alone could generate the unwanted event. To better illustrate the

methodology pursued is an example quite simple: there will be a lecture at night in an auditorium. A

negative event makes the encounter, such as:

14

(1): lack of light (2): switch Failure

(3): supply Failure

(4): faulty Switch

(5): Switch off (6): lack of supply

(7): accidents with the transmission line

(8): manufacturing defect (9): breakage of components

(10): accidental Shutdown

(11): purposeful Shutdown

(12): Network Shutdown voltage difference

(13): shutdown of the substation

(14): accidents involving fall of line

(15): accidents with light pole falls or equipment (16): component failure

(17): failed to process

(18): accidental Breakage

...... (31): accidental Shock with vehicles

The continuation of the tree could lead to issues surrounding to the switch failure

caused by a faulty component, or even a single foreign airline accident of electric energy

conductors. For each of the certain events arrive at a rate of failure or likelihood of failure, on the

topic of Reliability. Through Boolean algebra there is a correlation between these various events,

resulting in the likelihood of occurrence of the set. If the probability is too big you can think of

alternative systems to ensure the electrical power supply (redundant systems or systems in parallel).

The inverse, which is very low probability, one can take risks. On quantitative evaluation considers

(1) ⇐⇐⇐⇐ evento topo (2) (3) eventos conseqüentes (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (31)

15

the probability of the event occurring in isolation, when so used the gate "and", or the possibility of

the event occur concurrently with each other, using the gate "or". In the analysis of the likelihood of

failure for each critical path determined operates mathematically, the odds of failure, added, if the

gate is "or", and multiplied with each other, if the floodgates are "E".

VII) Other Methods

In addition to software available, as listed below, there are other techniques such as

Risk Series, Series of Events (Domino Theory), among others.

• SURTEC (FMAP modules, TGR, FTA)-Adopted in conducting FMEA/FMECA, drafts and edits

AAF, defines external events and conducts simulations by the Monte Carlo method.

• SUPER CODE SYSTEM-creation and editing of events and tree probability Files.

• WHAZAN-program for chemical risks and potential risks of toxic and/or flammable materials.

Employee in dispersion of gases, liquids or gas leaks, fire, thermal radiation or fireballs jets, air

displacement by explosion, scattering by clouds of gas.

• TECJET-Modulagem with continuous jet exhaust.

• STATPAC-calculation of frequencies, statistics, tables, cross tabulation, correlation and

regression.

• STATLIB-calculation of probability functions, Poisson binomial and Hypergeometric, analysis of

Variance, Multiple Tests of Bartlett, generation of sets of numbers Rondômicos for Monte Carlo,

etc..

• Other programs-ERFURT, MOCUS, BACFIRE, SAMPLE, HEUR, MARKOV, RELICS,

BATEX, CANONE and others.

The methods previously described generate qualitative and quantitative analyses,

through the use of computer simulations and database of job accidents. The issues most commonly

involved in the analysis are:

• What kind of risk can occur?

• What's your frequency?

• What is the most common damage?

From this phase has a position to know the rate of risk or cost the same, since this

product of a frequency of occurrences (f) by a severity of losses or gravity (g). The result is as

follows:

tr = f x g

At the time that quantify the losses in monetary units has been able to know how much

it would cost each event, if occurred, and Furthermore, if the loss could be tolerated by the

company, within normal risk financing programs. It is important to highlight that an event, when

materialized, never brings only one kind of loss. Associated with this may exist other type:

16

• material loss or inputs for production;

• loss of production;

• financial loss;

• personal loss;

• loss of image;

• loss of market;

• civilian responsibilities, etc.

Example-when an employee erases a principle of fire with a single fire extinguisher,

primary consequences, you have to add the cost of material that caught fire other costs like:

# fire extinguisher recharging cost;

# man cost/hour employee on extinction;

# loss of production time as previous moments to extinction until the normal resumption of

activities;

# cost with the disclosure of the accident and the training of officials;

# cost with the analysis of the accident;

# restore the environment, including the cleaning of the area.

Risks exist and that need to be monitored, assessed and quantified. The methods

employed in this evaluation, and that this can be quantitative or qualitative. The cost of risk should

not be measured only by their more immediate effects, adding to these other costs, incurred in

relation to the occurrence of the event.

The function of risk management:

The function of risk management is to reduce losses and minimize its effects. That

means if assumes the existence of losses in all industrial processes, as a fact perfectly natural.

However, through techniques, primarily of inspections and analyses, seeks to prevent these losses

may occur with certain frequency, or reduce the effects of those losses, limiting them to acceptable

values, or inside the profile stipulated by the company in its annual budgets. There is no single

method of risk management, or a standard methodology. It is customary to confront the current

procedures with standard procedures for that type of step, analyzing the possible existing changes,

through an extensive knowledge of the various stages of activity. Risk management is a continuous

process of search for defects, or almost-defects, with a view to their prevention. These defects are

called risk. Risk is a chance of loss and probably the most important step in the process of

identification and management of losses.

Note: the text of this article was extracted from the book: Industrial risk management, registered in the

National Library Foundation-Ministry of culture-Copyright Office-certificate of registration or Registration

17

nº 123,087, 190, 202 Sheet Book, with the author the Eng. Antonio Fernando Navarro (Rio de Janeiro,

October 1996).

For any quote from same should cite the source, under penalty of incurring in legal sanctions.

[1] Physicist, Mathematician, Civil Engineer, Security Engineer, Specialist in Risk Management, Master in Health and Environment, Professor of Actuarial Science at the Federal University Fluminense. The texts of this article were taken from the book: Industrial Risk Management, registered in the National Library Foundation-Ministry of Culture-Copyright Office-certificate of registration or Registration nº 123,087, 190, 202 Sheet Book, with the author the Eng. Antonio Fernando Navarro (Rio de Janeiro, October 1996). For any quote from same should cite the source, under penalty of incurring in legal sanctions.