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Innovation and Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Policy Entrepreneurship: Policy
Opportunities and ChallengesOpportunities and Challenges
Remarks at TECNARemarks at TECNABaltimore, March 19, 2009Baltimore, March 19, 2009
Rob AtkinsonRob AtkinsonPresidentPresident
Information Technology and Innovation Information Technology and Innovation FoundationFoundation
ITIF is public policy think tank committed to articulating and advancing a pro-productivity, pro-innovation and pro-technology public policy agenda internationally, in Washington and in the states.
Is There Opportunity in Crisis?
Recessions “are the means to reconstruct each time the economic system on a more efficient plan. But they inflict losses while they last, drive firms into the bankruptcy court, throw people out of employment, before the ground is clear and the way paved for new achievement of the kind which has created modern civilization and made the greatness of this country.” (Joseph Schumpeter, The Theory of Economic Development.)
IT Drove the U.S. Productivity Turnaround
(Annual rate of total factor productivity growth)
And Continues to Drive Productivity, Even in Recession
There are Innovation and Entrepreneurship Opportunities
in Downturns
Startups respond positively to growth.
But they also are promoted by a low cost of capital and higher unemployment.
Quality of startups is higher in recessions.
Cressy, 1993; Audretsch and Acs, 1994
Change in employment size for high-impact firms
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
1994-1998 1998-2002 2002-2006
Ave. employees =19 Ave. employees =20-499 Ave. employee= 500-plus
Industry R&D Investment Does Not Appreciably Decline in
RecessionInvestment as Share Investment as Share of R&Dof R&D
Percent Annual Percent Annual GrowthGrowth
Average, 1953-2007Average, 1953-2007 1.22%1.22% 2.3%2.3%
Average, downturn Average, downturn yearsyears
1.19%1.19% 2.9%2.9%
But the Other Challenge is Long Term: The U.S. is Lagging in
Innovation
The Study: comparing innovation-based competiveness of 40 nations and regions
Countries: EU and NAFTA countries, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, and Singapore
Regions: EU-10, EU-15, EU-25, and NAFTA
6 Groups of 16 Indicators to Assess Global Innovation-based Competitiveness:
Economic Structure- human capital (college education; researchers)- innovation capacity (corporate R&D; government R&D;
scientific publications)- entrepreneurship (new firms; venture capital)- IT infrastructure (e-government; corporate IT
investment; broadband)
Economic Policy (corp. tax; ease of doing business)
Economic Performance (trade balance, FDI, GDP per worker, productivity)
We’re Number 1?
Actually, We’re Number 6
Now No. 6
Behind…
1. Singapore2. Sweden3. Luxembourg4. Denmark5. South Korea
Benchmarked Change from the Beginning of the
Decade
1. China2. Singapore3. Estonia4. Denmark 5. Luxembourg6. Slovenia7. Russia8. Lithuania9. Cyprus10.Japan11.Hungary12.Slovakia13.Czech Republic14.India
15.Latvia
16.Austria
17.S. Korea
18. Ireland
19.EU-10
20.Spain
21.Sweden
22.France
23.Portugal
24.Malta
25.Belgium
26.EU-25
27.Poland
The U.S. is Behind….28.UK
29.EU-15
30.Mexico
31.Netherlands
32.Australia
33.Finland
34.Canada
35.Germany
36. Italy
37.NAFTA
38.Greece
39.Brazil
40.United States
Corporate R&D
Corporate R&D Change
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
Corporate R&D Change: 2003-2007
Government R&D
Government R&D Change
Some States Are Also Lagging in Innovation
The 2008 State New Economy Index uses 5 groups of 29 indicators to map how well places are adapting to the New Economy:
Knowledge Jobs
Globalization
Economic Dynamism
Digital Economy
Technological Innovation
2008 SNEI Overall Scores
TOP 5:
MassachusettsWashingtonMarylandDelawareNew Jersey
Workforce Education
U.S. Migration of Knowledge Workers
Immigration of Knowledge Workers
Fastest-Growing Firms
Venture Capital
High-Tech Jobs
Industry Investment in R&D
So, What To Do?
An Innovation Economy Requires an Innovation-
Based Economic Development Policy
Economic Development Doctrines and State Economic Development Policy
Conventional Economic Development
Neo-classical Business Climate
Neo-Keynesian Populist
Innovation Economics
Economic Development Doctrines and State Economic Development Policy
Conventional Economic Development
Neo-classical Business Climate
Neo-Keynesian Populist
Innovation Economics
Source of growth:
Capital investment
Principal Economic Development Means
Drive down costs through firm-specific subsidies
Object of Policy
Recruitment of out-of-state firms
Quality of Life
Minor importance
Goal Get big
Economic Development Doctrines and State Economic Development Policy
Conventional Economic Development
Neo-classical Business Climate
Neo-Keynesian Populist
Innovation Economics
Source of growth:
Capital investment
Capital investment
Principal Economic Development Means
Drive down costs through firm-specific subsidies
Drive down costs through lower taxes and reduced regulations
Object of Policy
Recruitment of out-of-state firms
Recruitment of out-of-state firms
Quality of Life
Minor importance
Not important
Goal Get big Get big
Economic Development Doctrines and State Economic Development Policy
Conventional Economic Development
Neo-classical Business Climate
Neo-Keynesian Populist
Innovation Economics
Source of growth:
Capital investment
Capital investment
Worker incomes
Principal Economic Development Means
Drive down costs through firm-specific subsidies
Drive down costs through lower taxes and reduced regulations
Drive up wages and benefits and foster more progressive taxes and public spending
Object of Policy
Recruitment of out-of-state firms
Recruitment of out-of-state firms
Small business and socially- conscious business
Quality of Life
Minor importance
Not important High importance
Goal Get big Get big Get fair
Economic Development Doctrines and State Economic Development Policy
Conventional Economic Development
Neo-classical Business Climate
Neo-Keynesian Populist
Innovation Economics
Source of growth:
Capital investment
Capital investment
Worker incomes Innovation and organizational learning
Principal Economic Development Means
Drive down costs through firm-specific subsidies
Drive down costs through lower taxes and reduced regulations
Drive up wages and benefits and foster more progressive taxes and public spending
Spur firm innovation through targeted supports (e.g., research, financing, skills, etc.) and incentives for firms to produce these themselves.
Object of Policy
Recruitment of out-of-state firms
Recruitment of out-of-state firms
Small business and socially- conscious business
High growth entrepreneurs and existing firms
Quality of Life
Minor importance
Not important High importance Moderately important to attract and retain knowledge workers.
Goal Get big Get big Get fair Get more prosperous
Align incentives to innovation
Use targeted investments in knowledge infrastructure as an incentive.
Align incentives to innovation
Use targeted investments in knowledge infrastructure as an incentive.
Investment tax credits should include R&D and software, not just manufacturing.
Align incentives to innovation
Use targeted investments in knowledge infrastructure as an incentive.
Investment tax credits should include R&D and software, not just manufacturing.
Extend sales tax parity for manufacturing purchases to computers and IT equipment.
Align incentives to innovation
Use targeted investments in knowledge infrastructure as an incentive.
Investment tax credits should include R&D and software, not just manufacturing.
Extend sales tax parity for manufacturing purchases to computers and IT equipment.
Create, expand and align state R&D tax credits with the new Federal R&D tax credit.
Don’t Forget Institutional Innovations
Create Different and Better K-12 Schools.
Don’t Forget Institutional Innovations
Create Different and Better K-12 Schools.
Shift the Focus of Post-Secondary Education More Toward Acquiring Skills.
Don’t Forget Institutional Innovations
Create Different and Better K-12 Schools.
Shift the Focus of Post-Secondary Education More Toward Acquiring Skills.
Take Industry-University Partnerships to a New Level.