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This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only
www.polarcapital.co.uk
Equity Income In Emerging Markets – A Route To Outperformance?
Citywire Maastricht
18-19 April 2013
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 2
• An attractive and growing dividend (3.6% yield on launch price in FY11, 3.9% in FY12 giving 8.3%
growth in 2012)1
• Twice yearly dividend distribution in January and July
• Low concentration of income sources
• Broad geographic sectoral exposure to emerging markets
• Portfolio has high returns on equity with low debt
• Multi-cap with domestic growth focus
The Fund aims to generate an attractive and growing dividend income
through a portfolio of Emerging Market equities, without sacrificing the
growth characteristics of the asset class
Fund Summary
1. At end 31 December 2012 NAV for Retail distribution units.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 3
• Dividend payout ratios in emerging markets are still low
• Emerging market corporate debt levels are low
• Returns on equity are higher than in developed markets
• Withholding tax rates are relatively low
• Improving corporate governance reflected in higher number of companies paying dividends
• Demand for income from emerging market companies is rising
• Attitudes to dividends are improving
• Emerging market currencies are undervalued on PPP basis
• Income strategies in emerging markets have worked well historically
Why Equity Income In Emerging Markets?
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
Income In Emerging Markets
Dividend yield by country (%): MSCI Emerging Markets dividend yield (%):
Dividend yield by sector (%): MSCI EM dividend yield relative to developed markets (%):
Source: Polar Capital and Bloomberg, 29 March 2013.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Dividend Payout Ratios Are Low
GEMs historic payout ratio1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dividend payout ratio by sector2 Dividend payout ratio by country2
GEM vs DM1
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
Payout ratio Long term average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
Developed Markets Emerging markets
1. Source: Polar Capital and Bloomberg, 29 March 2013. 2. Source: Polar Capital and Bloomberg, 31 December 2012.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 6
Balance Sheets Are Strong…
• Debt levels have remained at reasonable levels
• Interest costs relative to EBITDA have fallen
• Scope for payout ratios to increase
• Corporate governance is improving so increased
chance of this happening
• In countries where payout low – India and Russia –
oligarch/promoter debt levels suggest need for income
Total debt to total equity (%)1:
Net debt to EBITDA 1 :
1. Source: Polar Capital and Bloomberg, 29 March 2013.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Emerging Markets Developed Markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
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Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
Emerging Markets Developed Markets
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Dec -
02
Nov -
03
Oct -
04
Sep -
05
Aug -
06
Jul -
07
Jun -
08
May -
09
Apr
- 10
Mar
- 11
Fe
b -
12
Jan -
13
…But Returns On Equity Have Deteriorated
MSCI Emerging Markets ROE1 MSCI EM ROE vs DM ROE1
Source: UBS, 18 January 2013 unless otherwise stated.
1. Source: Bloomberg, 29 March 2013.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(e)
Sales Growth (%) 13.0 22.2 19.5 16.9 -6.1 27.2 15.0 7.2
Capex Growth (%) 8.6 25.2 19.9 16.8 -4.9 17.7 13.0 7.6
Capex/Sales (%) 13.1 12.6 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 12.2 12.0 12.0
Capex/Depreciation (%) 166.7 169.9 175 185.1 198.4 180.2 191.0 195.5 191.9
Net margin (%) 12.7 11.6 10.7 10.5 7.9 8.7 9.8 8.4 7.8
Net Income growth (%) 3.4 12.7 16.9 -12.2 4.1 42.1 -1.3 0.1
Net debt to equity (%) 25.9 23.1 23.6 23.9 31.3 27.9 25.4 28.5 30.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec-0
2
Nov-0
3
Oct-
04
Sep-0
5
Aug-0
6
Jul-
07
Jun-0
8
May-0
9
Apr-
10
Mar-
11
Fe
b-1
2
Jan-1
3
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 8
Stronger Macro-economic Environment
• Low debt to GDP (average 36% in GEM’s versus 93%
in the US)
• Low budget deficits (average 3.3% in GEM’s versus
9% in the US)
• Inflation at low levels
• Historically low bond yields
• Superior productivity growth driven by rural
urban migration
• Underleveraged private sector (credit to GDP is 77%
in GEM’s versus 173% in the US)
• Currencies remain undervalued
Emerging Market debt spreads (%)1:
Inflation (%)2:
1. Source: Polar Capital and Bloomberg, 5 April 2013.
2. Source: Polar Capital and Bloomberg, 28 February 2013.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Indonesia Turkey Russia Brazil South Africa China
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan 0
0
Ju
l 0
0
Jan 0
1
Ju
l 0
1
Jan 0
2
Ju
l 0
2
Jan 0
3
Ju
l 0
3
Jan 0
4
Ju
l 0
4
Jan 0
5
Ju
l 0
5
Jan 0
6
Ju
l 0
6
Jan 0
7
Ju
l 0
7
Jan 0
8
Ju
l 0
8
Jan 0
9
Ju
l 0
9
Jan 1
0
Ju
l 1
0
Jan 1
1
Ju
l 1
1
Jan 1
2
Ju
l 1
2
Jan 1
3
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 9
Demand For Income Is Set To Rise
• Pension funds assets in emerging markets still low
• Chile has set example which is being replicated
• Weightings to equities still low
• Low bond yields and rising fund sizes suggest shift to
equities will occur
Pension fund growth in selected EMs2:
1. Source: OECD, July 2011.
2. Source: OECD Global Pension Statistics 2012.
Pension fund assets as a % of GDP1:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Turkey Korea Czech Rep Mexico Poland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 10
Attitudes To Dividends Are Improving
2012: President Putin pushes for state owned companies to increase dividend payout ratio to 25%. Rosneft complies in FY12, raising dividend 173%. Gazprom increases dividend 133% and indicates they will reach government target in FY14
2013: Federal Law No 282-FZ:
• No more backdated record dates for dividends
• Dividends to be paid to shareholders within 25 days of record date (previously 60 days from approval by General
Meeting)
• both to be effective from 1 January 2014
The example of Russia
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 11
Buying EM stocks with top quintile dividend yields generates outperformance
Dividends As A Source Of Alpha
Source: MSCI, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. Date: 31 December 2012. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jul-03
Nov-0
3
Mar-
04
Jul-04
Nov-0
4
Mar-
05
Jul-05
Nov-0
5
Mar-
06
Jul-06
Nov-0
6
Mar-
07
Jul-07
Nov-0
7
Mar-
08
Jul-08
Nov-0
8
Mar-
09
Jul-09
Nov-0
9
Mar-
10
Jul-10
Nov-1
0
Mar-
11
Jul-11
Nov-1
1
Mar-
12
Jul-12
Nov-1
2
Top Quintile with High Dividend Yield Stocks MSCI EM Bottom Quintile with Low Dividend Yield Stocks
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 12
• A high dividend yield in emerging markets is only possible with a skewed sectoral allocation
High yield vs income and growth
Income In Emerging Markets
% of stocks with yield
>3% >5% Benchmark1
Consumer discretionary 7.4% 5.9% 7.9%
Consumer staples 4.8% 0.0% 8.7%
Financials 23.7% 20.0% 26.5%
Healthcare 0.7% 0.0% 1.3%
Industrials 8.1% 3.5% 6.5%
Energy 10.0% 4.7% 12.7%
Materials 13.0% 11.8% 11.7%
Telecommunications 11.1% 25.9% 7.7%
Utilities 9.6% 16.5% 3.4%
IT 11.5% 11.8% 13.7%
1. Benchmark: MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Source: MSCI. Date: January 2013. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 13
Framework for stock selection
Creating An Investment Framework
“When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the
business that remains intact.”
Warren Buffett
Government
Economy
Currency
Regulatory framework
Top-down macro
analysis
Top-down sector
analysis
Domestic cycle
Government
Penetration rates
Competitive environment
Comparative advantage
Preferred Sectors
Investible Countries
Source: Polar Capital.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 14
Top-down Macro Analysis
• Nature of financial and corporate regulations?
• Enforceability of the rule of law?
• Acceptability of corruption?
Regulatory framework
• Floating, fixed or managed?
• Risk of capital outflows/dependence on external financing
• Degree of over/undervaluation
Currency
• Level of current account and budget deficit
• Structural level of inflation
• Degree of Central Bank Independence
Economy
• Nature of economic model
• Degree of political instability
• Level of government interference
Government
Exclude countries where perceived risks are too high
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 15
Country Fiscal deficit as % of GDP
Govt debt
to GDP Current a/c as % of GDP Inflation
2011 2012 2013 2011 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
Brazil -2.6 -2.6 -2.1 58.6 -2.1 -2.4 -2.7 6.5 5.8 5.6
Chile 1.3 0.5 0.5 10.9 -1.3 -3.7 -4.3 4.4 1.5 2.2
Mexico -2.5 -2.6 -2.1 38.9 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 3.8 3.6 3.9
Czech Rep -3.3 -3.0 -2.0 40.8 -2.9 -1.1 -0.9 2.8 3.2 2.0
Hungary -5.6 -2.4 -3.0 78.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 4.1 5.0 2.8
Poland -5.0 -3.5 -3.4 55.8 -4.9 -3.6 -4.1 4.5 2.4 1.7
Russia 1.6 0.4 -0.6 9.3 5.3 4.0 2.1 6.1 6.6 5.4
South Africa -3.9 -5.2 -4.8 41.3 -3.4 -6.3 -6.2 6.1 5.7 5.2
Turkey -1.6 -2.3 -2.3 37.0 -9.7 -5.8 -6.5 10.4 6.2 6.6
China -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 51.8 2.8 2.6 2.9 4.1 2.5 4.0
India -8.2 -7.8 -7.3 67.5 -4.3 -4.6 -3.5 7.5 6.2 6.2
Indonesia -1.9 -2.0 -2.3 23.0 0.2 -2.8 -3.5 5.4 4.3 6.3
Korea -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 39.4 2.3 3.7 3.0 4.2 1.4 2.8
Malaysia -5.0 -5.0 -4.9 52.5 11.6 6.4 7.8 3.0 1.2 2.9
Philippines -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 47.5 3.1 3.3 2.2 4.2 3.0 3.5
Taiwan -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 50.9 8.9 10.5 9.7 2.0 1.6 2.3
Thailand -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 43.5 3.5 0.7 -0.2 3.5 3.6 3.9
Key macroeconomic variables
Top-down Macro Analysis
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg March 2013.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 16
Top-down Sector Analysis
• Trade-off between growth and returns
• Barriers to entry
• Degree to which sectors are oligopolies
Competitive environment
• Best long-term growth opportunities
• Sector position on “S” curve Penetration rates
• What is the government trying to promote?
• What sectors does the government handicap?
• Where is regulatory risk greatest?
Government policy
• Is the economy expanding or contracting?
• Is fiscal policy expansionary or contractionary?
• Are interest rates rising or falling?
Domestic cycle
• Investment opportunities unique to each country
• Structural strengths Comparative advantage
Be wary of price takers and government regulatory changes
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 17
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
Financial sector penetration rates
Top-down Sector Analysis
1. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 14 October 2011.
2. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 14 October 2011 and Polar Capital.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Mortgage penetration as % of GDP1
Total loans as % of GDP2
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 18
Framework For Stock Selection
• Balance sheet strength
• Debt structure and maturity profile
• Working capital cycle/cash flow generation
Financial strength
• Return on capital employed
• Level of cash flow generation
• How surplus cash is used
Use of capital
• Earnings multiple relative to expected growth
• Valuation versus emerging markets peers
• Growth versus emerging markets peers
Valuation
• Prospects and opportunity for growth
• Competitive environment
• Potential to increase margins
Growth
• Management track record
• Incentives
• Consideration of minority shareholders
Management
• Relative strength indicators
• Investor sentiment Timing/sentiment
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 19
• Bottom-up driven flat portfolio
– Circa 60–80 stocks with active weights circa 1 to 1.5%
– Multi-cap approach, driven by stock opportunity
• Self-imposed risk controls
– No more than 20% in any one country
– No more than 30% in any broad sector
– No more than 3% in any individual stock
• Structure
– 10-20% High yield, limited growth
– 60-80% Income and Growth
– 10-20% Growth
• Strong sell discipline
– Valuation has peaked / forecast of downward price trend
– Management disappoints and / or fundamentals deteriorate
– Better opportunities elsewhere
Portfolio Construction
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 20
% Energy Materials Financials Industrials Cons stap. Cons disc. Utilities Healthcare Telecom Technology Total Benchmark
China 1.26 1.17 1.51 2.93 1.51 1.50 1.45 2.95 14.3 18.5
India 3.48 0.98 4.5 6.7
Indonesia 1.34 0.74 1.58 3.7 3.0
Korea 1.42 0.29 1.45 1.41 1.50 3.12 9.2 14.8
Malaysia 1.41 1.24 1.20 3.8 3.3
Philippines 0.0 1.0
Taiwan 1.50 1.28 1.45 3.08 7.3 10.7
Thailand 2.79 1.64 4.4 2.7
ASIA 1.26 4.01 10.60 6.48 1.45 6.55 3.08 0.00 4.60 9.15 47.2 60.6
Brazil 1.44 6.02 2.93 2.87 2.96 1.47 17.7 13.0
Chile 0.0 2.0
Colombia 0.0 1.2
Mexico 3.11 1.66 1.70 6.5 5.3
Peru 0.0 0.6
LATIN AMERICA 0.00 0.00 4.55 7.68 4.62 2.87 2.96 0.00 1.47 0.00 24.2 22.1
Egypt 0.0 0.3
Morocco 0.0 0.1
GCC 1.48 1.5 0.0
MIDDLE EAST 0.00 0.00 1.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.5 0.4
Russia 3.52 1.27 1.39 1.30 7.5 5.9
Czech Rep 0.0 0.3
Hungary 0.0 0.2
Turkey 1.40 1.97 1.52 4.9 1.5
Poland 0.97 1.0 2.0
E EUROPE 4.93 0.00 2.24 3.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.82 0.00 13.3 9.9
SOUTH AFRICA 1.36 1.34 2.66 0.00 1.30 2.73 0.00 1.34 0.00 0.00 10.7 7.1
Total 7.6 5.4 21.5 17.5 7.4 12.2 6.0 1.3 8.9 9.2 96.9 100
Benchmark 12.6 12.5 24.8 6.8 8.5 7.8 3.9 1.1 8.2 13.8 100
Vs Bmk -5.0 -7.1 -3.3 10.7 -1.1 4.4 2.1 0.2 0.7 -4.6 -3.1
Portfolio
Source: Bloomberg, Polar Capital and Morgan Stanley, 4 April 2013.
Benchmark Index: MSCI Emerging Market Index.
.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 21
• Risk management is integrated at every step of our process, from initial liquidity and country screening to
portfolio construction and monitoring
• Polar Capital has an independent risk control process managed by the Chief Risk Officer
– Process is independent of the portfolio managers
– Quantitative controls used to ensure that risk is managed to a level consistent with clients’ investment objectives
– Risk profile of each portfolio discussed at a monthly Risk Management Committee
• Monthly Risk Management Committee meeting
– General overview of the current risk profile of each fund
– Any significant recent changes in this profile, any concerns and/or breaches are discussed
• Monthly performance attribution
– Ensures that the principal risk factors previously identified are indeed producing a commensurate level of return
• Quarterly portfolio reviews
– All fund managers are subject to a formal quarterly review where their portfolios are discussed in depth
Comprehensive risk management measures in place
Independent Risk Management
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 22
We have a very proactive stance on risk management the aim of which is to minimise business risk, limit portfolio
risk and eliminate dealing risk. This function is performed by both Fund Manager and the risk team at Polar Capital.
There are 3 stages:
Risk Management
• Business risk
– Market position
– Margins
– Management
– Balance sheet
– Business returns/cash
generation
• Stock risk
– Absolute valuation
– Relative valuation to history,
peers etc
• Portfolio risk
– Diversification by country,
sector and stock
– 60-80 holdings
– Initial weights 1-1.5%
– Liquidity
• Use Bloomberg
Compliance Manager
• All compulsory limits (i.e.
5-10-40 rule) entered on
system as well as Fund
Manager guidelines so any
‘fat finger’ trades are
flagged)
• Fund Management
– Business risk: is the
company continuing
to execute?
– Stock risk: is there
still upside?
• Risk Management
– Formal monthly risk
committee meetings
– Quarterly reviews
with Fund Manager
1. Due Diligence (performed by Fund Managers “FM”)
2. Execution (FM and trade support)
3. Monitoring (FM and risk team)
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 23
Appendices
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 24
Investment Team Profile
William Calvert – Fund Manager (EMEA / India)
William joined Polar Capital in October 2010 as a Fund Manager to establish the Emerging Markets investment team. William has over 20
years’ experience in emerging markets and prior to joining Polar Capital he spent thirteen years at AXA Framlington, where he was head of the
emerging markets desk, working on both dedicated emerging markets portfolios and as part of the global investment team. He was portfolio
manager for the AXA Framlington emerging markets fund from 2004 until his departure. He joined AXA Framlington from LCF Edmond de
Rothschild Securities where he was part of the country fund broking team. Prior to this he was a fund manager with Citibank, Municipal Mutual
Insurance and English Association. William has a degree in Economics from Bristol University.
Ming Kemp – Fund Manager (Asia)
Ming joined Polar Capital in October 2010 as a Fund Manager. Prior to joining Polar Capital, Ming spent 5 years at AXA Framlington as an
Asian specialist, managing Asian equity portfolios for global emerging market funds and global balanced funds. Following a post graduate
career in China, Ming moved to London in 1990. Ming took up a position as an equity investment analyst at American Express Asset
Management in 1995. She moved to Sarasin Investment Management in 1999 as a senior equity analyst for the Asia Pacific Market, before
joining AXA Framlington in 2005. Ming has a Masters in Business Administration.
Neil Denman – Fund Manager (Latin America)
Neil joined Polar Capital in October 2010 as a Fund Manager. Prior to joining Polar Capital, Neil spent 2 years at AXA Framlington, where he
was a portfolio manager within the emerging markets team. Previously he worked at Hexam Capital Partners from 2006 until 2008 as co-
manager of the global resources absolute return fund. Between 2004 and 2006 he was UK investment analyst at Baring Asset Management.
Neil began his career as a graduate trainee at Framlington between 2001 and 2004. Neil has a degree in Environmental Biogeoscience from
Leeds University.
Additional internal sectoral expertise: technology, healthcare and financials
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 25
Emerging Market Income Fund Performance
Polar Capital Emerging Market Income Fund performance since launch
Source: Northern Trust, 4 April 2013.
Basis: Class R Accumulation, Net of fees, income reinvested, US Dollar. Launch date: 20 January 2011.
Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results.
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
Jan -
11
Feb -
11
Mar
- 11
Apr
- 11
May -
11
Jun -
11
Jul -
11
Aug -
11
Sep -
11
Oct -
11
Nov -
11
Dec -
11
Jan -
12
Feb -
12
Mar
- 12
Apr
- 12
May
- 12
Jun -
12
Jul -
12
Aug -
12
Sep -
12
Oct -
12
Nov -
12
Dec -
12
Jan -
13
Feb -
13
Mar
- 13
Com
para
tive r
etu
rns
Polar Capital Emerging Markets Income Fund MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 26
AXA Framlington Emerging Markets Fund
William Calvert’s Performance Track Record
Source: Bloomberg, 30 September 2004 to 30 September 2010.
Basis: Net of fees, Sterling.
1 year 2 years 3 years 5 years 6 years
Total return Quartile Total return Quartile Total return Quartile Total return Quartile Total return Quartile
26.2% 1 68.5% 1 22.6% 2 116.8% 1 227.7% 1
Total return GBP (%):
Source: Lipper, 30 September 2004 to 30 September 2010.
Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Com
pa
rative
re
turn
s
Axa Framlington Emerging Markets Fund (GBP) MSCI Emerging Markets Index (GBP)
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 27
Vtech
• Vtech is a world leading supplier of telephony equipment and
E-learning products (ELP) for children
• Whilst telephony business is stable the ELP business provides
a growth opportunity due to low penetration rates in Asia
• The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio in
excess of 75% and this is expected to continue given the
strong cash balance sheet and high ROE of c.40%
• The company trades on a current indicative yield of 7.5% and
this should grow in line with consensus earnings growth of
10% CAGR FY10–15
Source: Vtech, Bloomberg and Polar Capital 2011.
It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12 months
is available upon request.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 28
Globaltrans Investment
• Second largest private freight rail transport company in
Russia with 7% share of cargo volumes
• Main freight operator, Russian Railways, has no capital
for expansion and needs to scrap obsolete stock
• Stock trades on P/E of 8.6x 2012 and 7.2x 2013. On
EV/EBITDA trades at 20% discount to global peers
• RoE in high 20’s with stock trading close to
replacement value
• Pro-forma debt to EBITDA of 1.3x following acquisition
of Metalloinvest and MMK fleets
• Dividend increased 73% for FY11 to gross yield of 3.7%
• Strong cashflow and minimum dividend payout ratio
of 30%
Freight rail transport (Russia)
Source: Polar Capital, Globaltrans and Bloomberg unless otherwise stated, January 2013.
1. Source: Bloomberg, based on consensus estimates. 2. Revenue less infrastructure and locomotive tariffs.
It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12
months is available upon request.
Owned fleet development (units, at period end)
Revenue and EBITDA growth 2009-13(e)1
2009 2010 2011 2012(e) 2013 (e)
Adj Revenue2 ($mn) 685.3 903 1177 1680 1970
EBITDA ($mn) 284 391 505 674 784
EPS 0.74 1.12 1.68 1.87 2.21
DPS 0.15177 0.37 0.64 0.78
32,384 38,173 39,910
62,000
2009 2010 2011 Dec 2012 estimated post MMK acquisition
+18% +5%
+55%
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 29
Marcopolo
• Market leader in bus body production in Brazil
• Benefiting from growth in bus rapid transit systems
which are being built for World Cup
• Internationally competitive with plants in South Africa,
Egypt and India
• Strong focus on return on equity and cost structure
• 15.2x 2013 P/E, for earnings growth of 16%
• Dividend yield of 2.5%, and average payout ratio of 48%
Auto parts (Brazil)
Source: Marcopolo, Bloomberg and Polar Capital 2013.
It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12
months is available upon request.
Earnings and dividend history
Total fleet & average age
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 30
• Security for ID Systems, Payment Means,
Telecommunication Services and Digital Certification
• ID contracts last for 3 to 5 years and are adjusted for
inflation in each year
• Opportunities to grow in National ID card, broadening of
online tax submission and chip and pin uptake
• Strong focus on ROE and balance sheet strength
• 16x 2013 P/E, for earnings growth of 17%-20%
• Dividend yield of 4.2%, and average payout ratio of
80%
Valid
Market share
Identification
System
Driver’s
License
Identification
Documents
Employment
Booklet Passport
Voter
Registration
Governments - 73% 100% - 100%
Valid 80% 17% - 6% -
Mint - - - 94% -
Montreal - 10% - - -
Thomas Gregg 10% - - - -
ICE 10% - - - -
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Income Growth (R$ Million)
Source: Valid, Bloomberg and Polar Capital 2013.
It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12
months is available upon request.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 31
• Digital China (DC) is an integrated IT distribution and services
provider to both corporates and consumers in China
• Market research firm IDC estimates China’s IT spending will
increase 17% in 2013, while Gartner forecasts its IT services
spending to rise 19%
• The Company has grown its sales at a CAGR of 24% over
the past seven years
• Margins have remained steady but should improve as the
weighting of higher value added services increases
• The company has generated return on equity of 20%+ with
very limited debt
• The payout ratio has been kept between 30-35% earnings
giving 24% CAGR in DPS over the last seven years
• The stock trades on a P/E of 10.4x March 2013 earnings and
has a yield of 3.1%
Digital China
Source: Digital China and Polar Capital, 2012. 1. Source: IDC. 2. Source: Gartner.
It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12
months is available upon request.
China – IT services spending forcast2
China – IT spending forcast1
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 32
Polar Capital was
established in 2001 and
has US$6.0bn AUM,
with 86 employees.
The Firm was listed on
the London Stock
Exchange (AIM) in
February 2007. The
Firm offers managers a
level of infrastructure
and corporate
governance normally
found in much larger
organisations.
As at 31 December 2012
Polar Capital Overview
Ownership
Business infrastructure
• Distribution and marketing
• Operational support
• Risk management
• Compliance
• Technology
• Finance
Management
Tom Bartlam
Non-Executive Chairman
Tim Woolley
CEO/Co-Founder
John Mansell
Chief Operating Officer
41%
10%
10%
39%
US$6.0bn
Polar Capital
XL
Caledonia
Free Float
Total assets under
management Strategies Fund managers AUM
Technology Ben Rogoff
Nick Evans
2 funds
US$1,274m
Japan James Salter
Gerard Cawley
2 funds
US$1,654m
UK Philip Hardy US$300m
European Robert Gurner
Andrew Marsh
2 funds
US$692m
Healthcare Dan Mahony
Gareth Powell
2 funds
US$463m
Financials John Yakas
Alec Foster
Nick Martin
Nick Brind
4 funds
US$569m
Emerging Market
William Calvert 2 funds
US$424m
Convertibles David Keetley
Stephen McCormick
US$41m
North American Andrew Holliman
Richard Wilson
US$531m
European MN Ton Tjia
2 funds
US$62m
Global Equity Andrew Holliman
Christophe Liégeois-Williams
Andrew MacKirdy
US$10m
Source: Polar Capital.
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 33
House view
This document has been produced based on Polar Capital research and analysis and represents our house view. All sources are Polar Capital unless otherwise stated.
Important information
The information provided in this presentation is for the sole use of those attending the presentation it shall not and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to make an investment into any fund managed
by Polar Capital. It may not be reproduced in any form without the express permission of Polar Capital and is not intended for private investors. Notwithstanding anything to the contrary herein, such person (and each
employee, representative or other agent of such person) may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of (i) the fund and (ii) any of its transactions, and all
materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to the recipient relating to such tax treatment and tax structure.
This presentation is only made available to professional clients and eligible counterparties. Shares in the fund should only be purchased by professional investors. Any other person who receives this presentation
should not rely upon it. The law restricts distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions, therefore, persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about and observe any such
restrictions. It is the responsibility of any person or persons in possession of this document to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.
This document does not provide all information material to an investor’s decision to invest in the Polar Capital Funds Plc – Global Emerging Markets Income Fund, including, but not limited to, risk factors.
PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS SHOULD REVIEW THE FUND'S OFFER DOCUMENT, INCLUDING THE RISK FACTORS, BEFORE MAKING A DECISION TO INVEST.
In the United States the fund shall only be available to or for the account of U.S. persons (as defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act")) who are
"qualified purchasers" (as defined in the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the "Company Act")) and "accredited investors" (as defined in Rule 501(a) under the Securities Act). The fund is
not, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any of the states of the United States and interests therein may not be offered, sold or delivered directly or indirectly into the United
States, or to or for the account or benefit of any US person, except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of such securities laws. The securities will be subject
to restrictions on transferability and resale. The Fund will not be registered under the Company Act.
Statements/Opinions/Views
All opinions and estimates in this report constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. Polar
Capital is not rendering legal or accounting advice through this material; readers should contact their legal and accounting professionals for such information.
Third-party data
Some information contained herein has been obtained from other third party sources and has not been independently verified by Polar Capital. Polar Capital makes no representations as to the accuracy or the
completeness of any of the information herein. Neither Polar Capital nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data makes any express or implied warranties or representations
with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular
purpose with respect to any of such data.
Holdings
This portfolio data is “as at” the date indicated and should not be relied upon as a complete or current listing of the holdings (or top holdings) of the fund. The holdings may represent only a small percentage of the
aggregate portfolio holdings, are subject to change without notice, and may not represent current or future portfolio composition. Information on particular holdings may be withheld if it is in the fund’s best interest to
do so. A complete list of the portfolio holdings may be made available upon request. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed was or will prove to be profitable, or that the
investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided in this document should not be
considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Polar Capital
4 Matthew Parker Street
London SW1H 9NP
Important Information
For non-US professional investor use only. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. 34
Benchmarks
The following benchmark indices are used: MSCI Emerging Markets Index TR. These benchmarks are generally considered to be representative of the global emerging market universe. These benchmarks are broad-
based indices which are used for comparative/illustrative purposes only and have been selected as they are well known and are easily recognizable by investors. Please refer to www.mscibarra.com for further
information on these indices. Comparisons to benchmarks have limitations because benchmarks have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from the fund. For example, investments made for the
fund may differ significantly in terms of security holdings, industry weightings and asset allocation from those of the benchmark. Accordingly, investment results and volatility of the fund may differ from those of the
benchmark. Also, the indices noted in this presentation are unmanaged, are not available for direct investment, and are not subject to management fees, transaction costs or other types of expenses that the fund may
incur. In addition, the performance of the indices reflects reinvestment of dividends and, where applicable, capital gain distributions. Therefore, investors should carefully consider these limitations and differences
when evaluating the comparative benchmark data performance. The information regarding the indices are included merely to show the general trends in the periods indicated and is not intended to imply that the fund
was similar to any of the indices in composition or risk.
Information subject to change
The information contained herein is subject to change, without notice, at the discretion of Polar Capital and Polar Capital does not undertake to revise or update this information in any way.
Regulatory status
Polar Capital LLP is a limited liability partnership number OC314700. It is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority (”FSA”) and is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities &
Exchange Commission (“SEC”). A list of members is open to inspection at the registered office, 4 Matthew Parker Street, London SW1H 9NP.
Investment managers which are authorised and regulated by the FSA are expected to write to investors in funds they manage with details of any side letters they have entered into. The FSA considers a side letter to
be an arrangement known to the investment manager which can reasonably be expected to provide one investor with more favourable rights, which are material, than those afforded to other investors. These rights
may, for example, include enhanced redemption rights, capacity commitments or the provision of portfolio transparency information which are not generally available. The Fund and the Investment Manager are not
aware of, or party to, any such arrangement whereby an investor has any preferential redemption rights. However, in exceptional circumstances, such as where an investor seeds a new fund or expresses a wish to
invest in the Fund over time, certain investors have been or may be provided with portfolio transparency information and/or capacity commitments which are not generally available. Investors who have any questions
concerning side letters or related arrangements should contact the Polar Capital Desk at the Administrator on (+353) 1 434 5007. The Fund is prepared to instruct the custodian of the Fund, upon request, to make
available to investors portfolio custody position balance reports monthly in arrears.
Forecasts
References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns Polar Capital may achieve, and should not be relied upon. The forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are
not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. In addition, the forecasts are based upon subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that may not yet have taken
place and may never do so.
Performance
Performance is shown net of fees and expenses and includes the reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. Many factors affect fund performance including changes in market conditions and interest
rates and in response to other economic, political, or financial developments. Investment return and principal value of your investment will fluctuate, so that when your investment is sold, the amount you receive could
be less than what you originally invested. Past performance is not a guide to or indicative of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. Investments are not insured by the FDIC
(or any other state or federal agency), are not guaranteed by any bank, and may lose value.
Investment process – risk
No investment process or strategy is free of risk and there is no guarantee that the investment process or strategy described herein will be profitable. Investors may lose all of their investments.
Allocations
The strategy allocation percentages set forth in this document are estimates and actual percentages may vary from time-to-time. The types of investments presented herein will not always have the same comparable
risks and returns. Please see the private placement memorandum for a description of the investment allocations as well as the risks associated therewith. Please note that the fund may elect to invest assets in
different investment sectors from those depicted herein, which may entail additional and/or different risks. The actual performance of the fund will depend on the Investment Manager’s ability to identify and access
appropriate investments, and balance assets to maximize return to the fund while minimizing its risk. The actual investments in the fund may or may not be the same or in the same proportion as those shown herein.
Polar Capital
4 Matthew Parker Street
London SW1H 9NP
Important Information Cont.