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People. Ideas. Success.
Guggenheim PartnersOpportunities In Infrastructure Investment
Scott Minerd
Global Chief Investment Officer
January 2014
CONFIDENTIALGuggenheim Investments (“Guggenheim”) represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Aviation, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners India Management, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, Security Investors, LLC and Transparent Value Advisors, LLC. This material is intended to inform you of services available through Guggenheim Investments’ affiliate businesses.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 2
Infrastructure Investment In Today’s Macroeconomic Environment
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201310%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Global Major Central Banks Combined Balance Sheet Assets as % of GDP*
Global Debasement Will Erode Purchasing Power
Source: Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data updated as of 12/31/2013.*Note: Major central banks include ECB, BoJ, BoE, and Fed. Data is combined after converting to U.S. dollars.
27.5%
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 4
Real 10-Year Government Bond Yields*
Debtors Have Gained An Advantage Over Creditors
Source: Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data updated as of 12/31/2013.*Note: Real 10-year government bond yields are nominal yields subtracted by CPI YoY rate.
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013-400%
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
U.S. Germany France U.K.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 5
Defined Benefit Pension Funds Asset and Liability Growth – Global Basis* (Normalized Levels at the End of 1998 = 100)
Growing Divide In Asset-liability Matching For Pension Funds
Source: Global Pension Assets Study 2013 , Tower Watson, January 2013. *Note: Global basis includes Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, U.K., U.S.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50
100
150
200
250
Liabilities
Assets
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 6
Why Infrastructure?
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS OF
INFRASTRUCTURE
The Infrastructure asset class has an attractive risk-return profile and provides compelling investment opportunity for private capital.
INFRASTRUCTURE PROFILE• Real assets
• Essential service to the economy or community
• Regulated or monopoly-like environment– High barriers to entry– Assets difficult to replicate– Low bypass risk
• Stable, predictable returns characterized by high cash yields and inflation protection
• Low business model and operating risk
• Inelastic demand and resilience to economic downturns
INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITIES• Economic infrastructure
– Transport: bridges, toll roads, tunnels, airports, seaports, freight rail
– Utilities: gas and electricity networks, power generation, water and sewage
– Other: car parks, storage facilities, renewable energy, communication infrastructure
• Social infrastructure– Education– Healthcare
Populationgrowth
Ageing infrastructure
Fiscal pressures requiring private
participation
De-leveraging and refinancing
Sustainability and natural resources
scarcity
Regulatory processes
Diversificationof risk
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 7
Global Pension Asset Allocation
Increasing Pension Fund Allocations To Alternative Investments
1995 1999 2003 2007 20120%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
49%
61%
51%55%
47%
40%
30%
36% 28%
33%
5%6% 12%
15% 19%
6% 3% 1% 2% 1%
Cash
Alternative
Bonds
Equities
Infrastructure: 6% of Total Alternative
Source: Global Pension Assets Study 2013 , Tower Watson, January 2013.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 8
Characteristics of Infrastructure Investment
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 9
Infrastructure Investment Can Offer Protection Against Inflation
Source: Infrastructure Investing: A Portfolio Diversifier with Stable Cash Yields, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, FactSet, FAA, FHWA, ZMARAD, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, and company websites. *Note: Equally weighted infrastructure portfolio includes 256 mature infrastructure assets in the U.S. and EU-15 countries during 1986 – 2006. The data is not adjusted for exchange rates.
EBITDA for an Equally Weighted Infrastructure Portfolio Compared to U.S. and EU-15 CPI Average* (1986-2006)
Economic Slowdown
Economic Slowdown
250
200
150
100
CPI Average
Infrastructure Portfolio
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 10
Annualized Volatility Comparison - Infrastructure Usage, U.S. Non-Discretionary Spending, and Equity Returns* (2000 – Present)
Infrastructure Investment Provides Stable Cash Flows
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg, Economy.com, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Eurostat, Guggenheim Investments. Data updated as of 12/31/2013 for equity returns and as of 12/31/2012 for others. *Note: Equity returns are total return basis.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Highly correlated with weather
S&P 500
MSCI World
FTSE100
MSCI Europe
Groceries(U.S.)
Clothing(U.S.)
Drugs(U.S.)
Electricity(U.S. and E.U-15)
Water(U.S.)
Miles Driven
(U.S. and U.K.)
Enplane-ments
(U.S. and E.U-15)
Natural Gas Consumption
(U.S. and E.U-15)
Equities Infrastructure Usage (units)
Non-discretionary Consumption (USD)
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 11
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Total Return
Index
MSCI World Total Return Index
Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Total Return Index
Barclays US Agg Total Re-turn Index
Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index
S&P500 Total Return Index
Credit Suisse US High Yield Total Return Index
Annualized Volatility
An
nu
aliz
ed R
etu
rn
Historical Return and Volatility (January 2003 – Present)
Infrastructure Investment Has Outperformed Over The Past Decade
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, UBS, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Guggenheim Investments. Data updated as of 12/31/2013.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 12
Global Infrastructure Opportunities
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 13
Global Infrastructure Investment Needs, 2013-2030
Global Infrastructure Investment Needs, 2013-2030
Source: Infrastructure Productivity: How to Save $1 Trillion a Year, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2013.
Roads Rail Ports Airports Power Water Telecom Total$0 Trn
$10 Trn
$20 Trn
$30 Trn
$40 Trn
$50 Trn
$60 Trn
$70 Trn
$16.6 Trn
$4.5 Trn$0.7 Trn $2.0 Trn
$12.2 Trn
$11.7 Trn
$9.5 Trn $57.3 Trn
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 14
ASIA PACIFICAsia• Combination of emerging and mature markets
• Immature regulation
• Significant demand for infrastructure
• Political risk
Australia• Extremely mature market
• Privatization in some states
• Domestic funds have significant exposure
• Market history has been both good and bad
EUROPE• Clarity over regulation
• Financial crisis
• Sovereign crisis
• Significant buying opportunity
AMERICAS• Evolving regulation
• Highly localized, political and complicated
• Fiscal stimulus
• Significant underinvestment in public infrastructure and
future investment gap in public infrastructure spending
• Limited privatization opportunities
• Predominately energy assets available for purchase
– Partial deregulation; failed market solutions for pricing
energy and capacity
– Environmental regulations driving investment
– Continued portfolio rationalization by strategic
corporations
• South American opportunities are a developing focus
Global Infrastructure Opportunity
GLOBAL – $57 TRILLION (2013 – 2030)
• Global GDP could double by 2030• Current gateway and inland transport infrastructure cannot meet 2030 demand
• Quality infrastructure is key pillar of international competitiveness• Private sector financing continues to deliver equity and debt capital needed to make infrastructure projects operational
Source: Infrastructure Productivity: How to Save $1 Trillion a Year, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2013.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 15
Brazil
United Kingdom
Canada
India
United States
Germany
Spain
China
Poland
Italy
South Africa
Japan
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Infrastructure Stock Value as Percent of GDP
More Infrastructure Spending Is Needed In Developed Countries
Source: Infrastructure Productivity: How to Save $1 Trillion a Year, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2013.
Infrastructure Spending as Percent of GDP
Average excluding Brazil and Japan = 71% Japan United
StatesEU Other
DevelopedDeveloping World
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
Actual spend during 1992 - 2011
Estimated need during 2013 - 2030
The world will need to spend more than it has over the past twenty years in order to maintain the infrastructure stock value to 70% of GDP. Developed countries include U.S. and EU are particularly underfunded.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 16
Breakdown of Global Urban Population 1950 - 2015
Rising Demand Of Infrastructure Investment From Rapid Urbanization In Emerging Markets
Source: United Nations, The Infrastructure Opportunity: Repair, Build and Stimulate, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, February 2009
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Emerging Developed
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 17
I. North America Energy Infrastructure Opportunity
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 18
Infrastructure Investment Criteria
• Assets typically have high capital costs representing a significant barrier to entry• Assets frequently operate in a regulated or contracted environment providing high cash flow visibility• The need for energy is relatively inelastic• Long life assets (30 – 40 years) and high replacement costs provide a hedge against inflation
Compelling Investment Opportunity• North America requires over $6.4 trillion* in energy infrastructure development• Private capital is crucial to satisfying the investment requirements of the energy industry
Attractive Sector Fundamentals
• Strong economic, environmental and policy trends driving coal plant retirements• Abundant and low cost gas supply driving fuel mix and demand for investment in related facilities• Policy driven demand for renewable energy in select locations• Historic underinvestment in critical energy infrastructure assets, including electricity transmission and pipelines• Evolving E&P technologies stimulating natural gas and oil midstream infrastructure investment in new shale regions• Attractive asset valuations below cost of new build• Portfolio rationalization by corporate and financial owners driving divestitures
Asset Management Potential
• Opportunities to increase asset value through:– Modernization, expansion, rehabilitation– Revenue optimization, including contract renegotiation, ancillary / value-added services– Cost rationalization– Leveraging services across multiple assets
Why North America Energy Infrastructure?
Significant capital requirements in robust and diversified market
Source: Guggenheim Investment, International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012. *Note: Figure represents projected cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure from 2012 to 2035.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 19
U.S. Crude Oil Production
Expected Growth Of Oil And Natural Gas Production In The U.S.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Data updated as of 12/31/2013.
U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
2
4
6
8
10
12
Million Barrels per Day
Projection
% of Production
2012 2040
Lower 48 Onshore (ex Tight Oil) 36.1% 27.2%
Tight Oil 34.7% 42.7%
Lower 48 Offshore 21.0% 26.6%
Alaska 8.2% 3.5%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Million Cubic Feet
Projection
% of Production
2012 2040
Lower 48 Onshore Conventional 24.6% 9.3%
Tight Gas 20.2% 22.4%
Shale Gas 40.4% 52.8%
Coalbed Methane 6.6% 4.5%
Lower 48 Offshore 6.9% 7.9%
Alaska 1.4% 3.1%
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 20
Oil and Gas Import Dependency in Selected Countries – 2010 vs. 2035
The U.S. Will Be An Energy Exporter By 2035
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, Guggenheim Investments. Data updated as of 12/31/2013.
Gas Imports
Gas Exports
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
(20%)
Less Import Dependency
More Import Dependency
United States
China India
European Union
Japan 2010
2035
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil Imports
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 21
15
20
25
30
35
40
Tri
llio
n C
ub
ic F
eet
Development Of U.S. Natural Gas Presents Promising Investment Opportunities
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release, KPMG Shale Gas: Global M&A Trends, 2011. Data updated as of 12/31/2013.
Total U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports (1990 – 2035)
Net imports of 5.7% of total consumption in 2013
Net exports of 15.7% of total production in 2035 The lack of infrastructure in certain
basins for transporting and
processing NGLs is creating a
temporary bottleneck for
development. Remotely located
basins face challenges in getting the
product out of the ground and into
the marketplace. Significant
investment in infrastructure will be
needed over the next 25 years, with
capital requirements expected to
exceed US$200 billion countrywide
during that period.
-- KPMG Shale Gas: Global M&A
Trends, 2011
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 22
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Fuel And Technology Transformation
• Natural gas is replacing coal as the fuel of choice
– Abundant supplies point to lower and more stable prices
– Natural gas emits substantially less air pollutants and greenhouse gases
• Over $80 billion1 of capital estimated to be required to replace the estimated 59 – 77 GW2 of coal-fired generation capacity retirements by 2016
– Environmental regulations and fuel costs are driving the switch from coal to natural gas
US Electrical Generation by Fuel Type (MWh)
Source: EIA 2014 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release. *Note: 1. Based on Guggenheim Infrastructure estimated replacement mix of 80% gas / 20% renewables and estimated construction rates of $1,100/kW for natural gas and $2,500/kW for renewables. 2. Potential Coal Plant Retirements 2012 Update, The Brattle Group, October 2012.
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Natural Gas
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 23
Geologically Diverse Hydrocarbon Supply
Location of Major U.S. Shale Plays Shale Resource Estimates
Region Shale Play Examples
Gas(Trillion
Cubic feet)
Oil(Billion Barrels)
Northeast Marcellus, Antrim, Devonian 472 --
Gulf Coast Haynesville, Eagle Ford 100 3
Mid-Continent Fayatteville, Woodford 60 --
Southwest Barnett 76 2
Rocky Mountain Mancos, Lewis, Bakken 43 4
West Coast Monterey / Santos -- 15
Total Onshore Lower-48 States: 750 24
• Considerable infrastructure investment required to satisfy infrastructure demands of new shale plays
Source: Review of Emerging Resources: U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays, U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 2011.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 24
$98
$30$43
$13
$23
$46
Mainline Gas Pipe Lateral Gas Pipe Gas Gathering PipeCompression & Storage Processing Oil & NGL Pipelines
Related Energy Infrastructure Opportunities
US Historical and Forecast Transmission Investment2
• Historic underinvestment in transmission grid– Cost allocation issues– Permitting and siting difficulties
• As much as $320 billion2 in transmission investment from 2011 – 2030 needed to alleviate bottlenecks and integrate renewable resources to load centers
• In North America, 34,000 circuit miles, of new high-voltage transmission lines are expected to be added from 2012 - 20223
Electricity Transmission
Forecast Midstream Infrastructure Investment 2011 – 20351 ($ Billion)
Natural Gas needs 2011 - 2035:• 50,000 miles of mainline & lateral pipelines • 589 Bcf storage capacity• 32.5 Bcf processing capacity• Total investment required for natural gas is ~$205 billion
Oil and NGL needs 2011 - 2035:• 5 million bpd of transmission mainline capacity for oil• 2 million bpd of transmission mainline capacity for NGLs• Total investment for oil & NGLs is ~$46 billion
Midstream Oil & Gas Infrastructure to Support New Shale Plays1
Source: 1. Interstate Natural Gas Association of America Foundation, 06.18.2011 and 02.15.2012. 2. Transmission Investment Trends and Planning Challenges, The Brattle Group, August 2012. 3. 2012 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, NERC, December 2012.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 25
II. Arctic Infrastructure Opportunity
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 26
Average Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September 1979 to 2013)
The Polar Ice Cap In The Arctic Region Is Melting Rapidly
Source: Goddard Sea Ice Remote Sensing & National Snow and Ice Data Center. Data shown from September 1979 through December 2013.
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3M
4M
5M
6M
7M
8M
9M
sq.
km
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 27
Opportunities Abound: Shipping Shortcuts – Up To 50% Faster Through The Arctic
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 28
2016 2020 20300
20
40
60
80
100
Transit
The Northern Sea Route - East
The Northern Sea Route - West
From Murmansk to Northern Sea Route Starting Point
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
Projected Transit Freight in Traffic Volume along the Northern Sea Route
The Arctic Expected To Be The Fastest Growing Region In The World
CAGR = 6.5%
Source: The Issues and Prospects of an Expanded Arctic Transportation Network, Alexei Konovalov, 2012.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 29
III. Opportunities in the Infrastructure Investment Vehicles
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 30
Comparison Of Infrastructure Investment Vehicles
Source: A Compelling Investment Opportunity: The Case for Global Listed Infrastructure Revisited, RREEF Research, July 2011.
Investment Vehicles Return Composition Size Liquidity Maturity General Annual Return
Unlisted Infrastructure Capital growth in early years, income-dominated at mature stage
> $200 million Illiquid Long-term Mature: 7% to 10%
Infrastructure Equities Mix of growth and income components
Any Amount Established and increasing volumes in most markets
Short toLong-term
Typical historical returns of 10%+
Institutional Bonds Set coupon and low growth rate
Any Amount Deep volumes in most markets
Short toLong-term
5% to 7%
Institutional Direct Real Estate
Mixed income and capital appreciation
> $20 million Moderate to deep volumes in most markets
Medium to Long-term
Core: 7% to 9%Value-added: 11% to 15%Opportunity: 18%+
Public Equities Mix of growth and income components
Any Amount Deep volumes in most markets
Short to Long-term
Large possible range of returns
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 31
Investor Survey on Infrastructure Investment – Percent of Responders on Current and Future Implementation Methods
Other Investment Types Expected To Gain On Private Infrastructure Investment
Don't Know
Secondaries
Fund of funds
Directly in underlying assets
Co-investments
Infrastructure debt
Global listed infrastructure
Private (Open end)
Private (Closed end)
0% 1000% 2000% 3000% 4000% 5000% 6000% 7000% 8000%
Current
Future
Source: Russell Investments’ 2012 Global Survey on Alternative Investing, Russell Investments, June 2012.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 32
European Project Finance Volume by Source of Funding
European Bank Lending To The Infrastructure Sector Has Declined Due To Ongoing Crisis And Increased Regulations On Bank Capital Requirements
Source: From Policy to Proof of Concept, and Beyond – Outlook for infrastructure 2012 , Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP, October 2012, Dealogic. *Note: 2012 data is annualized based on data in the first six months.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*$0 Bn
$30 Bn
$60 Bn
$90 Bn
$120 Bn
0
100
200
300
400
Bank loan (LHS)
Bond (LHS)
Equity (LHS)
Number of Projects (RHS)
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 33
Infrastructure Debt – Opportunities In Junior Debt
Equity
Wrapped Senior Bonds Credit Rating AAA with Underlying Rating of BBB
Unwrapped Senior Bond with Rating of A
Junior Bonds
Equity
Subordinated Bonds and Senior Debt Tranche
Traditional Infrastructure Bond Finance Structure
New Infrastructure Bond Finance Structure
Source: Paving the Way: Maximizing the Value of Private Finance in Infrastructure, World Economic Forum, August 2010
A new model of project financial structures could reduce the risk to the senior debt tranche, increase the overall rating, and hence, improve the risk-reward profile. The amount of senior bonds required could be reduced and the gap could be filled by junior bonds. The junior bonds would be acquired by specialist investors and would attract a higher yield than the senior bonds.
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 34
Appendix: Disclosures and Legal Notice
Please see Disclosures and Legal Notice at end of Document 35
Important Notices and Disclosures
Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Aviation, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners India Management, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, Security Investors, LLC and Transparent Value Advisors, LLC.
The information presented herein has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any security or fund interest or any financial instrument.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy or, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
Although the information presented herein has been obtained from and is based upon sources Guggenheim Investments believes to be reliable, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of that information. No representation or warranty is made by Guggenheim Investments or any of their related entities or affiliates as to the sufficiency, relevance, importance, appropriateness, completeness, or comprehensiveness of the market data, information or summaries contained herein for any specific purpose. The views expressed in this presentation are subject to change based on market and other conditions. There is no guarantee that Guggenheim Investments will make the investments as discussed herein.
The illustrations are intended solely as a tool to assist in consideration of various potential asset allocations for a client’s account. Guggenheim Investments makes no warranty that the asset allocations discussed in this presentation will be used to manage your account. Asset allocations may differ between clients based on their investment objectives and financial situations. No assurance can be given that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved and investment results may vary substantially on a quarterly, annual or other periodic basis.
This data is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance of indices of asset classes does not represent actual returns or volatility of actual accounts or investment managers, and should not be viewed as indicative of future results. The information contained in this presentation has been gathered from sources we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and we assume no liability for damages resulting from or arising out of the use of such information.
The views expressed in this presentation are the views of Guggenheim Investments and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. In discussion of any strategy, results and risks are based solely on the hypothetical examples cited; actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Investors are urged to consider carefully whether such services in general, as well as the products or strategies discussed in this material, are suitable to their needs.
The opinions, estimates, investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute the judgment of the author and our investment strategists, and based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. The investment strategies and views stated here may differ from those expressed for other purposes or in other contexts by other entities affiliated with Guggenheim Investments that may use different investment philosophies. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than they invested. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results. Given the inherent volatility of the securities markets, it should not be assumed that investors will experience returns comparable to those shown here. Market and economic conditions may change in the future producing materially different results than those shown here. All investments have inherent risks.
Expected returns are statistical estimates of hypothetical average returns of economic asset classes, derived from statistical models. Actual returns are likely to vary from expected returns. Expected return models apply statistical methods and a series of fixed assumptions to derive estimates of hypothetical average asset class performance. The models have limitations, as the assumptions may not be consensus views, or the model may not be updated to reflect current economic or market conditions. Accordingly, these models should not be relied upon to make predictions of actual future account performance. Guggenheim Investments has no obligation to provide recipients hereof with updates or changes to such data.
Any hypothetical performance results shown: (i) do not represent the results of actual investments but were achieved by retroactively applying a strategy designed with the benefit of hindsight; and (ii) do not reflect material economic and market factors that might have had an impact on Guggenheim Investments’ decision-making when using the strategy to manage actual client accounts.
Simulated results are shown for some methodologies because these are new strategies and, thus, have no performance history. There is no guarantee that an actual client portfolio will have the same return and risk profile as the simulated models. Model portfolios do not represent actual trading. Where model results are portrayed, Guggenheim Investments clients may have had investment results that were materially different from those portrayed herein. Some of the securities or strategies reflected in the model portfolio do not relate or relate only partially to the services currently offered by Guggenheim Investments.
The information presented herein is not intended to be target, projected or estimated returns. Rather, these numbers are based upon historical results derived from calculations using the risk distribution assumptions stated. This information is presented solely to assist you in creating a portfolio structure and forming investment guidelines and sector allocations.
The comparisons herein of the performance of the market indicators, benchmarks or indices may not be meaningful since the constitution and risks associated with each market indicator, benchmark or index may be significantly different. Accordingly, no representation or warranty is made to the sufficiency, relevance, importance, appropriateness, completeness, or comprehensiveness of the market data, information or summaries contained herein for any specific purpose.
The information contained herein is given as of the date hereof and this does not purport to give information as of any other date. Neither the delivery of this document nor any sales made hereunder shall, under any circumstances, create an implication that there has been no change in the matters discussed herein since the date hereof.
© 2014 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted by any means without the express written consent of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. The information contained herein is confidential and may not be reproduced in whole or in part.