October 12th, 2016Labor Market Outlooks & Jobs Added

There looms a 70% chance of a rate hike in December. However, that greatly depends on the economic indicators and the US presidential election. So far jobs, wages and the market is plugging along. The Fed is less worried about inflation than previously thought. - Chad Hagan, Zermatt Investors

“The unemployment rates for African Americans and for Hispanics remained above the rate for whites, al though the differentials in jobless rates across these groups were similar to those before the most recent recession. The employment-to-population ratio for individuals aged 25 to 64 continued to be higher for whites than for African Americans and for Hispanics.” - FOMC Mins.

“The minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, published Wednesday, revealed that only five of its 17 participants thought the risks to their inflation forecasts were tilted to the downside, down from seven when the previous round of forecasts were submitted in June. The pattern follows movements in inflation-linked markets, where prices are signaling a greater chance the Fed will hit its target than they were a few months ago.” - Bloomberg *(See Next Page Chart)

Global Economy 'OK' But Inflation (09:21 AM EDT, 10/12/2016) New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley speaking at a "fireside chat" in Albany said he hopes to raise rates as the economy strengthens, but inflation expectations are well anchored and still below Fed targets. He views the global economy as "doing ok", while growth in Asia is sometimes overlooked. In terms of post-election fiscal policies, Dudley said" we will take the world as it is."

The number of job openings decreased to 5.4 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.1 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions. Job Openings On the last business day of August, there were 5.4 million job openings, a decrease of 388,000 from July. The job openings rate was 3.6 percent in August. The number of job openings decreased over the month for total private (-348,000) and for government (-39,000). Job openings decreased in a number of industries, with the largest changes occurring in professional and business services (-223,000), durable goods manufacturing (-29,000), and arts, entertainment, and recreation (-28,000). In the regions, job openings decreased in the South and the Midwest.

BLS Press Release 10/12

Private Sector Jobs (August)

4,200 - New York 2,100 - New Jersey 17,400 - California

4,900 - Texas 2,100 - Illinois

18,800 - Florida

Sources & Data

Deutsche Bank Torsten Slok’s DeskZermatt Investors Corp. www.zermattresearch.comBLS - Stats October 12, 2016 MT NewswiresFederal Reserve Bank of San FranciscoADP Regional Employment Report - http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/