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Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 1 NewBase 15 June 2014 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Saudi Arabia to test shale gas viability in Empty Quarter Saudi Aramco is preparing to award front end engineering and design (FEED) contracts to develop shale gas reserves as pilot projects in three different basins of Saudi Arabia. Despite all the challenges to implement the hydraulic fracturing techniques in Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom is keen to try it a real scale in order to boost its natural gas production. As OPEC largest producer of crude oil, Saudi Arabia is taking its leading role to regulate the global market prices for a barrel. In a context where number of producing countries have hard to meet their goals, no less than Brazil, Mexico, Libya, Syria or Nigeria, the regulating role of Saudi Arabia becomes more critical to meet the global demand. Meanwhile, the US shale gas has significantly modified the business model of the petrochemical industry using equally naphtha or ethane as feedstock. Because of the current situation on the oil global market and its domestic strategy to boost competitive downstream industries, Saudi Arabia is struggling to convert each drop of crude oil consumed internally . into gas. Therefore Saudi Aramco received the mandate to explorer all solutions such as to: - Monetize the associated gas - Explore deep offshore gas in Red Sea - Develop unconventional gas. Considering that the hydraulic fracturing techniques require electrical power and water to produce steam, the development of shale gas resources in Saudi Arabia is not a given.

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Page 1: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 1

NewBase 15 June 2014 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Saudi Arabia to test shale gas viability in Empty Quarter

Saudi Aramco is preparing to award front end engineering and design (FEED) contracts to develop shale gas reserves as pilot projects in three different basins of Saudi Arabia. Despite all the challenges to implement the hydraulic fracturing techniques in Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom is keen to try it a real scale in order to boost its natural gas production. As OPEC largest

producer of crude oil, Saudi Arabia is taking its leading role to regulate the global market prices for a barrel. In a context where number of producing countries have hard to meet their goals, no less than Brazil, Mexico, Libya, Syria or Nigeria, the regulating role of Saudi Arabia becomes more critical to meet the global demand. Meanwhile, the US shale gas has significantly modified the business model of the petrochemical industry using equally naphtha or ethane as feedstock. Because of the current situation on the oil global market and its domestic strategy to boost competitive downstream

industries, Saudi Arabia is struggling to convert each drop of crude oil consumed internally . into gas. Therefore Saudi Aramco received the mandate to explorer all solutions such as to: - Monetize the associated gas - Explore deep offshore gas in Red Sea - Develop unconventional gas. Considering that the hydraulic fracturing techniques require electrical power and water to produce steam, the development of shale gas resources in Saudi Arabia is not a given.

Page 2: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 2

Saudi Aramco shale gas to power Maaden Phosphate Saudi Aramco identified three basins holding supposedly significant reserves of shale gas: - Empty Quarter in the south - South Ghawar in Eastern Province - Al-Jalamid in the north With these newly identified reserves, Saudi Arabia could increase its declared gas reserves from 285 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2012 to 288 tcf in 2013. Maaden_Phosphate_City_ProjectIn addition to power and water challenges, it seems that shale gas reserves are lying up to 4,000 meters depth increasing drilling costs and reducing production performances.

With new technologies, such as steam production directly out of sun power successfully tested by Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) in the neighboring Sultanate, Saudi Aramco is moving on front end engineering and design (FEED) to develop three pilot projects. Among these projects, Saudi Aramco is planning to use the shale gas produced out of the Al-Jalamid basin to feed a gas-fired 1,000 MW power generation facility planned for the giant If the FEED work is successful, Saudi Aramco will convert it into engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract. To be sanctioned in a similar format as the Maintain Production Program (MPP) contract used for oil and gas offshore operations, the shale gas engineering services contract should be signed for a period of

three-plus-two years. In awarding the Saudi Arabia first shale gas contract in 2014, Saudi Aramco is targeting the first production of shale gas from Empty Quarter, South Ghawar and Al-Jalamid by 2018.

Page 3: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 3

Stork Oryx JV wins Qatar Shell contract Press Release

Stork Oryx Turbo Machinery Services said it has won a seven-year contract from Qatar Shell for the overhaul of rotating equipment at the Pearl GTL site situated in Ras Laffan Industrial City.

Stork Oryx Turbo Machinery Services will be responsible for the overhaul of rotating equipment installed at the Pearl GTL plant. The contract includes minor and major overhauls of steam turbines, compressors, pumps, blowers, expanders and fans from various manufacturers, which are scheduled to be done during turnaround events. As an independent service provider, Stork Oryx Turbo

Machinery Services has experience with servicing almost all brands of steam turbines, compressors and pumps. Stork offer comprehensive experience in the overhaul of rotating equipment and the ideal location of the ultramodern Oryx Engineering Solutions Centre, situated in Ras Laffan, Qatar. At this centre, state-of-the-art tools and machines deliver outstanding services on a wide variety of equipment, with effective responses and short lead times enabling customers to maximise their productivity and keep downtime of their installations to an absolute minimum.

On the project win, Richard Janmaat, the VP for Turbo Machinery Services at Stork said: "I am confident that this contract award reflects Stork’s commitment to developing our relationship with

Page 4: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 4

Qatar Shell and to successfully delivering a service at the highest levels of productivity, fastest response times, and with maximum attention to HSSE and quality standards." Stork has been a supplier to Shell for over 30 years. Over time, Stork has offered Shell a range of services and gained extensive experience in the turnaround of rotating equipment and fully understands the complexities and challenges of these projects. As part of Oryx Energy Projects & Services, Oryx Engineering Solutions (OES) has built a market leading platform to deliver world class services through combining local knowledge, outstanding infrastructure, technical capability and partnering with leading specialists. Rob Sherwin, the deputy country chair for Qatar Shell said: "We are extremely proud to include Stork Oryx Turbo Machinery Services as a local supplier to the Pearl Gas to Liquids facility in Qatar. I am delighted to see Stork bring their global experience and expertise to Qatar in a joint venture with Oryx." "Such a transfer of knowledge and technology is in line with our ambition, shared by our partner Qatar Petroleum, to increase the local content of our contracting. This directly supports the Economic Development pillar of the Qatar National Vision 2030," he stated. Abdulla Mannai, the founder and managing director at Oryx, said: "By supporting local companies Qatar Shell is creating a sustainable environment for local industry to further develop, ensuring that world class standards and know-how are transferred and available locally to the industry." "We are committed to work with Qatar Shell in delivering on this trust and growing our relationship," he added.

Page 5: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 5

'Deal on oil shale-fuelled power plant to be signed this month Jordan Times 2014

The Jordanian government on Thursday said it will sign an agreement this month for the construction of the country's first oil shale-fuelled power plant after agreeing with Enefit on the final details of the $2.1 billion project.

Jordan and the joint Estonian-Malaysian consortium agreed that the price per kilowatt hour that the government will buy from the plant will be levelised, ranging from a minimum of 78 fils per kilowatt hour to a maximum of 99 fils per kilowatt hour, Energy Minister Mohammad Hamed told The Jordan Times in an interview on Thursday. Reaching a final agreement on the price paves the way for going ahead with the project after the consortium threatened in early May to abandon the project if no final agreement is sealed with the government by

mid-June. "The draft of the final agreement is now complete and was sent to the Cabinet for endorsement," Hamed said, adding that the two sides will sign the power purchase agreement after the Council of Ministers approves the deal.

The agreement will be for 30 years, with the option of being extended to 40 years, according to the minister, who noted that the plant will have a 470-megawatt capacity. The government decided to give Enefit three to six months to reach financial closure for the project, Hamed said, adding that once financial closure is achieved the company has 36 months to complete the power plant. "I expect the plant to be ready and connected to the grid by late 2017," he said. Enefit Jordan BV is owned by Enefit (Eesti Energia AS), YTL Power International Berhad and Near East Investments Limited. Enefit mandated the Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, supported by China Export & Credit Insurance Corp., to arrange $1.4b of debt financing for the planned plant.

As of January 2014, the Oil & Gas

Journal estimated Jordan's proved

oil reserves at just 1 million barrels

and its proved natural gas reserves

at slightly more than 200 billion

cubic feet (Bcf). Oil shale resources

have the potential to increase

Jordan's reserves significantly, and

the country plans to build the first

oil shale-fired electricity generation

facility in the Middle East after

2017.

Page 6: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 6

Namibia: Tower Resources Welwitschia-1A well offshore Namibia disappoints. Source: Tower Resources

Tower Resources, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Neptune Petroleum (Namibia), has provided an update with respect to the Repsol-operated Welwitschia-1A well on PEL0010, offshore Namibia. The Rowan Renaissance drillship commenced drilling operations on PEL0010 on 23 April 2014 and the Welwitschia-1A well spud on 1 May 2014. Repsol Exploration (Namibia), the Operator of Namibia PEL0010 (Repsol 44% working interest, Tower 30% working interest), has confirmed that the firm commitment well reached total depth of 2,454 metres TVDRT (Total Vertical Depth Below Rotary Table). Logging evaluations indicate that the Palaeocene, Maastrichtian and upper Campanian section reservoirs were less well-developed than prognosed and no hydrocarbons were encountered.

Drilling has been behind schedule initially owing to late rig-delivery and operational issues during drilling and logging, including the onset of winter weather conditions. Current expectations from the Operator are that costs will now be around 10% in excess of the $91 million gross firm well budget. The estimated cost of continuing the current well to test the deeper targets, including the Albian, now appears to be as much as a further $40 million gross. Despite our interest in the deeper targets, with their large potential resources, this raises the question whether it may be better to wait for the full analysis of the current well before deciding whether and where to drill a second well and test the deeper targets with the benefit of that further information. As a result, the Partners have agreed not to drill further at this time and

to evaluate the information and its implications for the Block. The well is being plugged and abandoned. Nigel Quinton, Head of Exploration commented 'Our first well in this huge frontier block has shown that the Maastrichtian and Palaeocene reservoir sands were less well-developed in this location

Page 7: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 7

than we had hoped for, which was always recognised as a critical risk factor. As of now, our view of the prospectivity of the deeper section including the Albian carbonates, remains unchanged. As usual in frontier areas, it will take time to fully interpret the results of the well and assess the implications for the remaining prospectivity of PEL0010.'

Jeremy Asher,

Chairman, commented:

'Obviously we are

disappointed, but we await the more

detailed analysis and will then consider our options afresh.

Shareholders will recall from the CPR that the chances of success in these upper targets ranged from 31% downwards to 8%, with lower chances as we went deeper, and facing odds like this is the nature of our business. Knowing this, our strategy has been to diversify our asset portfolio

with the recent acquisitions of assets offshore South Africa, in Zambia and onshore Kenya, and we have applications in progress in Cameroon, Ethiopia and elsewhere. We want to keep our options open on PEL0010, but we also want to conserve sufficient funding for the commitment work that lies ahead on our other assets, which hold great promise.' Graeme Thomson, CEO, stated: 'The well emphasises the risk of exploration and the wisdom of having moved to diversify our portfolio. We expect much activity in the coming months on and in the areas surrounding our assets. In South Africa we await the new 3-D on our Algoa-Gamtoos block and Total is scheduled to be drilling its Brulpadda-1 well on the adjacent block shortly. Planning for our year-end Badada-1 well on Block 2B onshore Kenya is underway and regional activity is rising. Our projects in Zambia, SW Orange Basin SA, Cameroon, Ethiopia and elsewhere are gaining momentum.'

Page 8: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 8

Malaysia: EnQuest acquires operated interest in the producing Seligi oil field and PM8 PSC from ExxonMobil . Source: EnQuest

EnQuest, through its wholly owned subsidiary EQ Petroleum Production Malaysia has announced the agreement to acquire ExxonMobil's interest in the Seligi oil field and the PM8 PSC, located offshore Malaysia. The agreement is subject to the approval of PETRONAS and satisfaction of certain conditions precedent.

This acquisition is another step in the execution of the Company's strategy to extend its international footprint in Malaysia. Following completion, the acquisition will contribute approximately 5,000 Boepd of net production and 11.0 MMboe of net 2P reserves to EnQuest. EnQuest has extensive experience in creating value from late stage maturing assets in the North Sea, now being extended to enhance recovery from these Malaysian assets. Highlights EnQuest will take over operatorship from ExxonMobil on completion

Page 9: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 9

EnQuest and Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd will each hold a 50% participating interest from completion Following completion, the transaction is estimated to contribute an additional 5,000 Boepd to the Company's net production and 11.0 MMboe to net 2P reserves This acquisition will be the Company's third project in Malaysia The economic date of the transaction is 1 January 2014 and the US$67.0 million cash consideration is to be subject to an interim period adjustment on completion. The current PM8 PSC is due to expire on 30 June 2014. It is a condition to completion that the Company will enter into an agreement with PETRONAS for the continuing development and production of petroleum resources from the PM8 PSC and Seligi oil field until 2033. EnQuest's CEO Amjad Bseisu said: 'I am delighted to announce this acquisition which builds on our core skill of enhancing value from maturing fields. This acquisition follows from our recent partnership with PETRONAS on the Tanjong Baram field and is a significant expansion to our Malaysian operation. I look forward to deepening our relationship with PETRONAS and adding further opportunities in Malaysia.' Further information on the transaction As part of the transaction, EnQuest will also enter into a transition services agreement with ExxonMobil to provide for the smooth transfer of the assets. Additional background information on the assets Both fields are located offshore Malaysia.

Seligi The Seligi field is located approx. 240 kms offshore Peninsular Malaysia in a water depth of 73 metres. The entire oil field encompasses approx. 80 sq kms and has been developed with Seligi-A, the main Production platform and separate gas compression platform, along with seven minimum facilities satellite platforms tied back to Seligi-A.

PM8 The PM8 PSC comprises of six developed fields (Lawang, Langat, Serudon, North Raya, South Raya and Yong), which have been developed with four minimum facilities satellite platforms tied back to Seligi-A. The six fields have combined original hydrocarbons in place of over 180 million barrels of oil. They have been developed with a total of 33 strings and produced around 100 million barrels of oil.

Page 10: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 10

US Projected growth in natural gas-fired generation is

influenced by resource availability.Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,

Different scenarios of natural gas resource availability in the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014)

Reference case, High Oil and Gas Resource case, and Low Oil and Gas Resource case affect the growth of

natural gas-fired electric generation. As increasing amounts of natural gas become economically available to

power sector and onsite generators, gas-fired electric generation increases in all three cases. However, the

cases differ in terms of whether growth in gas-fired generation is sufficient to overtake coal-fired generation

by 2040.

Growth in natural gas-fired generation comes from two sources: the power sector and the end-use sector.

Growth in natural gas-fired generation in the power sector accounts for 78% of the overall increase in

generation from that fuel through 2040 in the Reference case; growth in the end-use sector—largely firms in

manufacturing industries that use natural gas-fired combined heat and power units for onsite electricity

generation—accounts for the remaining 22%. Growth in natural gas-fired generation in both of these sectors

results in natural gas-fired generation surpassing coal-fired generation by 2040.

By contrast, power sector growth alone is sufficient to push total natural gas-fired generation above coal-

fired generation in the High Resource case. Greater resource availability, leading to a lower increase in

natural gas prices, makes generation from natural gas-fired units even more economically feasible than in

the Reference case. The opposite occurs in the Low Resource case, which projects that, due largely to low

resource availability and a higher increase in natural gas prices than in the Reference case, total natural gas-

fired generation remains below coal-fired generation through 2040.

NewBase – Daily Energy news for details contact :- [email protected] - +971504822502 , UAE

Page 11: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

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in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 11

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

In the Reference case, natural gas-fired generation dips in the near term, and then it grows

steadily through 2040:

• In 2012, historically low natural gas prices and decreased power generation across all fuel sources

led to the lowest annual level of coal-fired generation in 25 years, while newer natural gas-fired

facilities became more economical to operate. Last year, higher natural gas prices allowed coal-

fired generation to regain some of its market share.

• Through 2015, coal-fired generation is projected to remain above 2012 levels, while natural gas

remains below 2012 levels. The effect of higher natural gas prices is only partially offset by 22

gigawatts (GW) of coal plants that are projected to retire.

• From 2015 to 2020, environmental rules will lead to an additional 27 GW of coal retirements, of

which 23 GW occur in 2016 alone. Gas-fired power generation increases by 129 billon

kilowatthours, and higher demand pushes the delivered price of natural gas to the electric power

sector to more than $5.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

• After 2020, coal-fired generation capacity remains relatively flat, while power generators build

new, more economic natural gas-fired units to meet rising overall power demand. Although the

delivered price of natural gas to the power sector reaches $8.16/MMBtu in 2040, versus

$3.19/MMBtu for coal, coal-fired generation includes higher construction costs and uncertainty

over future environmental rules.

Page 12: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 12

Crude prices rise & its Global outputs BYREUTERS

Brent crude oil pared gains but remained above $113 a barrel yesterday despite easing concerns that an insurgency in Iraq would trigger a sudden and significant halt in its oil exports. "The market in general is trying to assess the risks on Iraq. There was a big market reaction and then the IEA (International Energy Agency) said it did not see a risk to supplies so the volatility is reflecting

this," Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix consultancy said. Most of Iraq's current oil exports come from south of Baghdad, still far from the rebel fighters. Should they reach south of Baghdad, analysts expect them to encounter much greater resistance. Iraqi exports from the north are considered safe for the moment, analysts said, as the major Kirkuk oil hub is held by Kurdish forces "While the Iraqi military faces low morale issues in the north, Shia fighters would prove much more resilient in protecting their homes and provinces in southern Iraq, and insurgents have no local support," Ayham Kamel, director of the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, wrote in a research note earlier this week Brent was up 55 cents at $113.57 per barrel as of 1142GMT, off a peak of $114.69, its highest since September. It gained more than $3 on Thursday. US crude was up 48 cents at $107.01, off a high of $107.68, also a nine-month high. A day earlier it gained $2.13. Brent was set to gain more than five per cent this week, the biggest weekly rise since last July, while US crude was on track for its biggest jump since December The United States has threatened military action against Islamist militants who have taken towns

Page 13: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 13

and cities in Iraq, raising concerns over its oil exports. The IEA played down fears over the possible sudden loss of oil exports from Iraq in its monthly Oil Market Report. "Concerning as the latest events in Iraq may be, they might not for now, if the conflict does not spread further, put additional Iraqi oil supplies immediately at risk," the Paris-based agency said. Analysts say oil markets are finely balanced at the moment and another significant blow to supply could push up prices even further. The IEA said yesterday that Opec would need to produce one million barrels per day (bpd) more oil on average in the second half of 2014 to balance the global market, which will see a steep seasonal spike in demand .

The bullish assessment contrasted with the view of Opec, which on Thursday said extra production would be more than sufficient to meet growing demand. Brent crude jumped above $113 a barrel as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant raced towards Baghdad A member of the British army Princess of Wales Regiment climbs on an oil pipe during patrols around oil fields in Basra Province, southern Iraq Spectacular advances by Jihadi forces across northern Iraq have raised the spectre of a Sunni-Shia conflagration in the heart of the Middle East, triggering a surge in oil prices and throwing into doubt the structure of global energy supply for the next decade. Brent crude jumped above $113 a barrel as the self-described Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) raced down the Tigris Valley towards Baghdad with sophisticated weaponry, seizing on its momentum after the historic capture of Mosul. Oil prices are approaching levels last seen during the Arab Spring. “Iraq is turning into a nightmare. There are real risks that this movement will spread to other countries. Our economies are too weak to pay for oil at $120, and they can’t stand $140 if it spikes that high,” said Chris Skrebowski, a veteran oil analyst and former editor of Petroleum Review. Iraq is Opec’s second-biggest producer, though output has slipped 8pc to 3.3m barrels a day (b/d) since February due to sabotage of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey. Ole Hansen, from Saxo Bank, said a fall in Iraqi output to levels seen in the last Gulf war would cause a $20 price spike. “The entire economic recovery could stall, and we could even slip back into recession in some regions,” he said. The International Energy Agency is counting on Iraq to provide 45pc of the entire increase in global oil supply by the end of the decade, badly needed to meet growing demand in China and India. This requires vast investment – rising to $540bn by 2035 as output tops 8m b/d – but such

Page 14: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

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outlays are implausible as the state slides towards sectarian civil war. A risk alert put out on Thursday by IHS said the West Tikrit and Ajul oil fields and other energy assets in the North are at “severe risk of being raided or targeted for sabotage”. The highways linking Baghdad to Basra are also at risk, and cargo travelling almost anywhere in the north is vulnerable to bomb attacks. The government claims to have stopped an assault on the country’s biggest oil refinery at Baij but IHS said the plant is still at “severe risk”. Iraq’s oil minister, Abdul Kareem Luaibi, said most of country’s crude was pumped from “very, very safe” regions in the Shia South. He insisted that Iraq would meet plans to boost output to 4m b/d by the end of the year, the highest since the late 1970s. Such assurances count for little as the Iraqi security forces melt away in the face of lightning strikes by the army of Sunni extremists, a group of up to 5,000 warriors that is too radical even for Al-Qaeda and harks back to the 8th century Caliphate. ISIL forces have seized Tikrit, the stronghold of ex-dictator Saddam Hussein, and were reported to be closing in on Dhuluiya, 50 miles from Baghdad. The city of Fallujah has already fallen, a poignant reminder of how little the US has achieved after spending $1 trillion on its misadventure in Iraq. The city was captured by US and British forces a decade ago with heavy casualties in the toughest battle since the Vietnam War. The army has abandoned the oil-rich region of Kirkuk in the north to the autonomous forces of the Kurdish Peshmerga, leaving it unclear whether the unitary state of Iraq actually exists. Helima Croft, from Barclays, said ISIL has already conducted bombings deep into the Shia south as far as Basra and may step up attacks on energy infrastructure. “The south of the country is not beyond the geographic reach of the extremist groups. We believe the government will be hard pressed to devote funds to complete vital oil infrastructure upgrades when it must devote ever-

increasing resources to stem the security threat,” she said. Michael Lewis, from Deutsche Bank, said the pitched battles have created a “new event risk” for global oil markets, leaving it far from clear whether developments such as the West Qurna 2 field will be completed as planned.

Page 15: New base special  15 june 2014

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained

in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 15

The unfolding drama comes at a time of near paralysis in Libya, where militia conflicts have cut output to less than 200,000 b/d, barely a fifth of the potential. There is a tentative deal in the works but it will take months to crank up output. “Libyan crude is very waxy. If you leave the taps off for 12 months it precipitates out. You can’t just turn it back on again,” said Mr Skrebowski. China has been boosting its strategic petroleum reserve at a record pace, tightening the global market just as disruptions in Azerbaijan, Colombia, Mexico, South Sudan and other non-Opec suppliers cut output by 500,000 b/d, enough to tip the balance in a global market of 92m b/d. The IEA called on Opec to raise output by 900,000 b/d even before the drama in Iraq. The cartel has ignored the pleas, deciding on Wednesday to keep its quotas unchanged at 30m b/d. Most Opec members need prices near $100 just to cover their budgets. Elizabeth Stephens, from Jardine Lloyd Thompson, said the ISIL Jihadis fund themselves by control over Syria’s oil fields, selling $18m of crude each month to the Assad regime. “Perhaps we should be encouraging Assad to buy from the West, but that would be an embarrassing change of policy,” she said. Iraq’s breakdown is a tragedy, brought to a head by years of corruption under premier Nouri al-Maliki and his failure to abide by power-sharing accords with the beleaguered Sunnis. Zaineb Al-Assam, from IHS, said the Iraqi army is too demoralised and poorly equipped to defend the state, leaving to it Shia militias such as the Mahdi Army of Sadr City to protect their zones. This in turn risks setting off a sectarian spiral. Iraq’s fragmentation greatly increases the risk of intervention by Iran, Turkey and other outside powers, turning the crisis into a full-blown struggle for dominance between Sunni and Shia Muslims. The echoes of Europe’s Thirty Years War between Catholics and Protestants in the 17th century are growing ever louder.

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Your partner in Energy Services

Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA ASME member since 1995 Emarat member since 1990

Energy Services & Consultants Mobile : +97150-4822502

[email protected]

[email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 yearsKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 yearsKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 yearsKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 years of experience in theof experience in theof experience in theof experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as

Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for

the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Mthe GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Mthe GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Mthe GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations ost of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations ost of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations ost of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations

Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , heManager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , heManager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , heManager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed has developed has developed has developed

great experiences in the designing & constructinggreat experiences in the designing & constructinggreat experiences in the designing & constructinggreat experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pof gas pof gas pof gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply ipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply ipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply ipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply

routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many Mroutes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many Mroutes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many Mroutes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for OUs for OUs for OUs for

the local authorities. He has become a referthe local authorities. He has become a referthe local authorities. He has become a referthe local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE andence for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE andence for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE andence for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted Energy program broadcasted Energy program broadcasted Energy program broadcasted

internationally , via GCC leading satelliteinternationally , via GCC leading satelliteinternationally , via GCC leading satelliteinternationally , via GCC leading satellite ChannelsChannelsChannelsChannels . . . .

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NewBase 15 June 2014 K. Al Awadi