Making Use of Big Data What You Can Learn from Detailed Real Estate Data

October 20, 2015

PETER ANGELIDES, PHD, AICPPRINCIPALECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.PHILADELPHIA, PA

TAKEAWAYS• Lots of data, and more coming. Some

of it is very cool.

• Canned programs can help, and may be all you need

• Custom analysis can answer very specific questions, but is difficult and expensive

Overview

• Trends in Big Data availability

• Examples of planning-related Big Data usage

• Real Estate- specific data sources and uses

Source: SINTEF, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130522085217.htm

More than

90% of the world’s data has

been generated since 2011

Creation of Big Data

Source: IBM 2012, https://www.ibm.com/annualreport/2013/bin/assets/2013_ibm_annual.pdf

Big Data

• Trend towards big, “open” data

• Data available from municipal sources, corporate sources, and more

• Uses are varied and creative

Federal/Regional Sources

• Census (LEHD, Decennial, ACS, PUMS)

• Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Department of Transportation

• World Health Org. or World Bank

• MPOs (i.e. DVRPC)

Municipal Sources

• Individual Office Datasets

- Property Assessments

- Recorder of Deeds

- Police (Crime Incident Data)

- 311 calls

• Munistats (municipal tax rates in PA)

Municipal SourcesNew Trend: Citywide Open Data

Private SourcesData Collected by Private Companies

• Uber

• Google

• Mastercard

Private SourcesData for Purchase

• REIS/ CoStar/ IRR (Real Estate)

• NETS (Businesses)

• ESRI (Geo and census)

• STR (Industry)

• Nielson (Consumer data)

EXAMPLE 1 - PHIPhiladelphia Housing Index

• Assessment Data

• Transaction Data

• Many uses

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing Index

Philadelphia House Sales

Dataset

Philadelphia Property

Assessment Data (OPA)

Philadelphia Transaction Data

(Recorder of Deeds)

Philadelphia Geographic Data

(Census, ESI, OpenDataPhilly)

Data Merge ProblemsHuman Error/ Dataset Differences

VS

OPA Entries

248 Krams Ave

230 Furley St

9906 Bustleton Ave, Unit C13

1737-39 Chestnut St

Philadox Entries

248 Krams St

230 W Furley St

9906 Bustleton Ave, Unit C-13

1737 Chestnut St

Data Merge ProblemsTime Lag in Data Entry

Screenshot from Philadox Deed

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing Index

Philadelphia and Comparative House Price Indices 2003 – 2014 Q3 (2003 = 100)

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Philadelphia Philadelphia Metro Area National Average

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing Index

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing Index

Each dot on the map represents one sale. The color indicates the price per square foot, following the classification shown on the chart below.

More than $200

$150 to $200

$101 to $150

$51 to $100

$26 to $50

$25 or Less

473

406

849

930

456

497

Count of Sales by Price per Square Foot2014, Q3

Case Study: ESI Philadelphia Housing Index

Subregion House Price Indices 2000 – 2014 Q3 (2003 = 100)

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Far Northeast Northeast NorthNorthwest Lower North/River Center City/UniversityWest/Southwest South Citywide

Color of Subregion on chart corresponds to color of Subregions on map. Quarterly changes noted on map.

-0.1%

+1.0%-1.3%

+1.6%

+2.8%+1.2%

+0.3%

+5.2%

EXAMPLE 2 – Open Space

• Similar to PHI

• “Return on Environment” done with DVRPC

• 230,000 arms length transactions

Case Study: Value of Open Space

$16.3 billion added to the value of

southeastern Pennsylvania’s housing stock

$240 millionIn annual property and transfer tax revenue for

local governments

$133 millionIn costs avoided as a result of the natural provision of

environmental services

$577 millionIn annual benefit for

residents who recreate on protected open space

$795 millionIn avoided medical costs as a

result of recreationthat takes place on

protected open space

6,900 jobscreated on or as a resultof protected open space in the five county region

Case Study: Value of Open Space

Case Study: Value of Open Space

EXAMPLE 3 – LEHDCommuting Patterns

• Works at any geography

• Stratified by income

- $0 - $1,250

- $1250 - $3,333

- >$3,333

CENSUS - LEHD (ON THE MAP)

Source: U.S. Census 2015, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

CENSUS - LEHD (ON THE MAP)

Source: U.S. Census 2015, http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

MUNISTAT

Sources: Munistat - PA DCED (2015), Econsult Solutions (2015)

 Combined Resident and School District Earned Income Tax

LEHD (ON THE MAP) – EIT TAXES

Sources: LEHD 2015 http://onthemap.ces.census.gov, PA DCED (2015) https://www.dced.state.pa.us/systems-and-websites/

Estimated Resident EIT Payments to Sampleville Township under One Percent Resident EIT, County Summary

County of Workplace

Sampleville Resident

Jobs subject to

EIT

Earnings of Sampleville

Resident Jobs subject to EIT

Estimated EIT Payments to Sampleville

Estimated EIT Currently Paid

to Other Municipalities

Percent of Estimated EIT Currently Paid

to Other Municipalities

Bucks 12,152 491,559,798 4,915,598 1,839,721 37%

Montgomery 3,113 148,242,619 1,482,426 1,295,707 87%

Delaware 660 31,330,978 313,310 102,300 33%

Chester 546 25,159,330 251,593 143,338 57%

Northampton 135 5,884,209 58,842 60,458 100%

Other Counties 381 14,555,996 145,560 149,590 100%

Total PA 16,986 716,732,930 7,167,328 3,591,114 50%

EXAMPLE 4 – ACS / PUMS• Census – 10 years

• ACS

• PUMS

• Only available in summarized tables

• Small sample size

• Conducted yearly

• Moredetailed data

• Only available as raw data

• Large sample size• Conducted every 10 years• Contains only basic data

PUMS

DECENNIAL

ACS

•Large sample size•Conducted every 10 years•Contains basic, accurate data•Available in summarized tables

Decennial Census

•Small sample size•Conducted yearly•More detailed, less accurate data•Available in summarized tables

ACS (American Community

Survey)

•Raw version of data used to create ACS tables•More data to manipulate but harder to work with•Can be used to create demographic multipliersPUMS (Public

Use Microdata Sample)

SUMMARY OF CENSUS DATA TYPES

CENSUS - DECENNIAL

• Collected once every 10 years

• Intended to provide accurate population count and basic demographic data

• Sent to every U.S. household

Source: http://www.census.gov/2010census/about/

CENSUS – AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY (ACS)

• Collected continuously and available in 1, 3, and 5 year aggregations

• Sent to small sample of U.S. households (roughly 3.5 million per year), so all data are estimates

• Intended to provide more detailed but less accurate data.

Source: http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance.html

AMERICAN FACTFINDER (ACS AND DECENNIAL)

Source: http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t

AMERICAN FACTFINDER (ACS AND DECENNIAL)

Source: http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t

CENSUS – PUBLIC USE MICRODATA SAMPLE (PUMS)

• Raw version of the data used to create ACS estimates

• Contains raw individual responses instead of data aggregated to geographic area

• Gives much more information but large and more complex to use

Source: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/technical-documentation/pums.html

DEMOGRAPHIC MULTIPLIERS WITH PUMS

• Raw data allows for creation of demographic multipliers based on averages from ACS data

• Vital to development impact assessment

DEMOGRAPHIC MULTIPLIERS EXAMPLE

Unit Type BedroomsNumber of Units

Public School Students/Hou

sing Unit

Total New Public School

StudentsSingle Family – Age Targeted 3 50 0.15 8 Single Family 3 20 0.29 6 Single Family 4 100 0.95 95 Townhouse – Owner 3 110 0.29 32 Townhouse - Rental 3 20 0.64 13 Mixed Use Condominium 3 40 0.29 12 Apartments 1 150 0.07 11 Apartments 2 130 0.33 43 Total Housing Units 620 218

Estimated Number of New Public School Students Resulting from a Sample Residential Development

Source: ESI (2015), ACS 5-year 2013 (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data/pums.html)

DEMOGRAPHIC MULTIPLIERS EXAMPLE

Source: ESI (2015), ACS 5-year 2013 (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data/pums.html)

Revenue Deficit

Revenue Surplus

Other Examples• CyclePhilly

• WindyGrid

• SEPTA / PAT Cards

• Rich Blocks Poor Blocks (census data)

• Azavea / Philly Police Crime Map

Use: DVRPC/ CyclePhilly

• Smartphone app CyclePhilly collects data on bicycle trips from users

• DVRPC used data to analyze biking patterns in Philadelphia

Source: http://www.cyclephilly.org/

Use: Chicago WindyGridGIS Application for use by city officials that integrates city building and spatial data, 911 and 311 calls, and public tweets in real-time.

Source: Harvard Data-Smart City Solutions, http://datasmart.ash.harvard.edu/

Use: New Transit Cards

Thank You

Questions?

Peter Angelides, PhD, AICPEconsult Solutions215-717-2777econsultsolutions.com