Perspective Plan 2030

Dr. Anuradha Balaram

Member Secretary & Chief Economic Advisor

Kerala State Planning Board

Scope of this address What is a Perspective Plan?

Why did we need a Perspective Plan?

Why did we select NCAER to partner with us?

What are the fundamental ideas brought out in the draft plan?

How have we sought people’s participation?

What are the next steps?

Major concerns that need to be addressed today Ageing population Urbanization Unemployment Inequality Food Security Low productivity Inflation Stress related behavior High debt

Vision Kerala will achieve economic and living standards

equivalent to Nordic countries.

It will be

A global knowledge hub, A prosperous and socially cohesive society, Cleaner, safer, and have a healthier environment.

Kerala’s per capita income will be equivalent to a high middle income country by 2030.

Mission“Sustainable Prosperity”

This means:Economic ProsperityHuman well-beingSocial ProsperityGreen Prosperity

Mission statement: Quantity alone is not enough-quality matters

GoalsEconomic prosperity Achieve annual per capita income of USD 36,000 from the

current (approximately) USD 4,700 (2005 PPP) by 2040 Achieve a compound rate of 7.5% during the next 20 years to

reach the level of USD 19,000 equivalent to a middle high income country by 2030.

With sectoral growth rates of 2% in agriculture 9% in manufacturing 9% in construction 7.5% in communication 10% in education and health sectors

Brand Kerala as a ‘global education and health hub’ driving India’s exports in education and health care services

High quality of life Increase the share of education and health sectors in GDP to 10%

of GDP from the current 5−6% Increase in enrolment ratio in higher education to 50% Health security for all Upgrade to highest category of UNDP human development index High standards of living with focus on

The growth of smart urban and rural areas Transforming Kochi into a global city

Just and equal society  Reduction in

Unemployment rate to 4% from 7.7% Gini coefficient to 23% from 45% Poverty rates to 1% ( $2 per day PPP)

Culturally diverse, safe and just society

Goals

GoalsClean and Safe Environment  Upgrade ecosystems, biodiversity, resources, through

sustainable production systems and consumption Protect forests and wetlands

Conserve the World Heritage bio-diversity of Western Ghats

20% increase in energy and water use efficiency Recycle targets of 60-75 of waste generation depending

on the type of waste Identify and maximize the use of sustainable resources.

 

Knowledge Economy Wealth Generation through creation, production, distribution

& consumption of knowledge and knowledge based products

Clean and ethical work force – emphasis on high skills and relevance

Quality of education

Master trainers to the world in a few key areas

Use expertise of retired people

Collaborative mindset

Education To make quality education affordable to all To create a global brand name in education by 2030

Goals 100% enrolment in primary schools 95% of all young people shall complete general or vocational

upper secondary education by 2015 50% of all young people shall complete a higher education

programme by 2015 Everyone shall be engaged in lifelong learning Kerala will be a knowledge hub by 2030 6% of the GSDP should be spent on education, of which 1.5–2%

should be set aside for higher education.

HealthGoals Increase the health expenditure to GSDP ratio from 0.6 per cent in

2012 to 4−5 per cent by 2027−31. This will be achieved by 1 percentage point increase spread over the next 5 years plans.

Reduce MMR from 81 to 12 per 1 lakh live births Reduce IMR from 13 to 6 per 1,000 live births Eradicate communicable diseases Prioritise health areas to include mental diseases, alcoholism &

suicides Increase the no: of hospital beds from 34.6 per 10,000 in 2004 to 70

per 10,000 by 2030 Increase the no: of nurses from 12.4 in 2004 to 65 by 2030 Increase the no: of doctors from 9.9 per 10,000 population to 17.2 in

2030 Provide Health insurance cover to all Set up three medical cities by 2030

AgricultureGoals Agriculture will be prosperous, socially inclusive, and

environmentally friendly

There will be a paradigm shift from subsistence farming to highly knowledge – intensive, competitive farming.

Farmers will be agripreneurs and their performance will be viewed not as a means to livelihood, but as a means of economic prosperity

The younger generation will take pride and dignity in agriculture as an occupation and sector.

Livestock

Goals Self-sufficiency in supply to the local market, with fish

milk, dairy products and meat

Meet internally about 80% of the demand for egg.

Entry into export markets for milk products and meat by 2030

ForestryGoals Increase the share of forestry in GSDP to 0.5%

Increase the productivity of forests through improved management of resources

Improve the forest resources in terms of increases in growing stocks to 345m3/ha

Combat the greenhouse effect and absorb carbon dioxide

Identify new technologies & implement them to make the sector dynamically more productive

IndustryGoals Increase the share of manufacturing from the current 8% to

10% of GSDP by 2030; Shift of the structure of industry from resource-driven to

efficiency driven over the next 20 years. This will be on track to develop innovation-driven industrial sector;

Share of the registered sector in total manufacturing will rise to 80%

Sustained increase in employment in manufacturing Adoption of clean production systems

Transport

Goal Green sustainable and safe transport

Transport Shares

Share of road transport in Kerala in passengers-billion-km-70%

Share of rail transport in Kerala in passenger-billion-km-25%

Share of water transport in Kerala in passenger-billion-km-4%

Goal Economically affordable and environmentally clean power

to all

Targets Exploit the full potential of hydro-electric generation Assess and capture the full potential of non-hydro renewable

energy Reduce the transmission and distribution losses in the

electricity sector to 9% from the current 15.7% Improve energy conservation by 20% from energy use 100% electrified households with 24*7 availability of electricity

Energy

Labour State should formulate a comprehensive “ Growth

oriented labour welfare policy” with following objectives Connecting supply with demand for labour Increasing employment opportunities Ensuring social security net for labour

The Labour policy should be based on Transformational changes in education A well-developed labour information system Encourage entrepreneurship Labour market management – flexicurity

Marginalized People

Vision To cerate a society in which every Keralite is entitled

to live with human dignity Objectives

Identification of the vulnerable population Equity in service delivery Efficiency in service delivery Accessibility for all

Some major concerns raised by stakeholders Inadequate emphasis to agriculture

Health & Education are being commercialized

Public sector has not been given a boost

No mention of comprehensive social security

Kerala’s best practices to be highlighted

Local Self Government to be added

Questions?