Upload
nigam-raj
View
909
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
INDIA FOREIGN TRADE ANALYSIS 1970-2014
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
The trend of GNPfc and Per capita GNPfc
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
EXPLAIN GNP AND GNP PER CAPITA
• GNP
• Gross national product (GNP) is a broad measure of a nation's total economic activity. GNP is the value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in one year by its nationals
GNP is the total value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a particular year, plus income earned by its citizens (including income of those located abroad), minus income of non-residents located in that country. Basically, GNP measures the value of goods and services that the country's citizens produced regardless of their location.
• GNP PER CAPITA ECONOMICS the total value of all the
goods and services produced by a country in a year including income from foreign investments, divided by the number of people living there: For countries which have a lot of foreign investments, GNP per capita is a more accurate economic indicator
• The GNP (Gross National Product) per capita of a country shows the average value of goods and services produced by each person each year. This is then divided by the total population to get an average earnings per person.
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
by-Nigam Raj, Sharda University
TREND OF GNP AND GNP PER CAPITA
• GNP • GNP PER CAPITA
2013-1
4
2011-1
2
2009-1
0
2007-0
8
2005-0
6
2003-0
4
2001-0
2 0.00
10000.00
20000.00
30000.00
40000.00
50000.00
60000.00
70000.00
GNP at Market Prices
GNP at Market Prices
2013-1
4
2012-1
3
2011-1
2
2010-1
1
2009-1
0
2008-0
9
2007-0
8
2006-0
7
2005-0
6
2004-0
5
2003-0
4
2002-0
3
2001-0
2
2000-0
1
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Per Capita GNP at factor cost (Rupees)
Per Capita GNP at factor cost (Rupees)
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
by-Nigam Raj, Sharda University
DIFFERENCE IN TREND FROM 2000 TO 2014
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
0.00
10000.00
20000.00
30000.00
40000.00
50000.00
60000.00
GNP at Factor CostPer Capita GNP at factor cost (Rupees)
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
REASON OF DIFFERENCE IN GNP AND GNP PER CAPITA
• The reason is that GNP can moved because of a change in the export performance of the MNCs or a change in the profit repatriation decisions of the MNCs. The decisions of the MNCs have two avenues to impact our GNP figures. The assumption may be that one will offset the other but that is not necessarily the case.
by-Nigam Raj, Sharda
University
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
ROLE OF Export & Import in National Income
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
1971
-72
1973
-74
1975
-76
1977
-78
1979
-80
1981
-82
1983
-84
1985
-86
1987
-88
1989
-90
1991
-92
1993
-94
1995
-96
1997
-98
1999
-00
2001
-02
2003
-04
2005
-06
2007
-08
2009
-10
2011
-12
2013
-14
-15000.00
-10000.00
-5000.00
0.00
5000.00
10000.00
15000.00
20000.00
25000.00
30000.00
Trade Balace Import Export
Year
Rupe
ss B
illion
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
3 stages of change in economy1)Pre-industrial society:• Major economic activity: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining• Technology: low; reliance on muscle power• Occupation ; seasonal, unskilled jobs, limited mobility• Social base: Societal living family relationships• Services: Money lending, personal and household employment , trading, bartering,
warfare 2)Industrial society:
• Major economic activity: Processing, manufacturing, • Technology: power, machines, automation• Occupation: Semi-skilled, technicians• Social base; Union, focus on accumulation of goods, dehumanizing of jobs• Services: Warehousing, transportation, marketing, restaurants, banking, warfare
3)post-industrial society:• Major economic activity: Information and knowledge, healthcare, recreation• Technology: High professional skills, Research and Development, Professional
education• Occupation: Scientists, Data management, professionals, knowledge work • Social base: IndividualismServices: Trade, Finance, Real estate, Health, Research, Insurance, Recreation, Education
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Until the liberalisation of 1991, India was largely and intentionally isolated from the world markets, to protect its economy and to achieve self-reliance. Foreign trade was subject to import tariffs, export taxes and quantitative restrictions, while foreign direct investment (FDI) was restricted by upper-limit equity participation, restrictions on technology transfer, export obligations and government approvals; these approvals were needed for nearly 60% of new FDI in the industrial sector. The restrictions ensured that FDI averaged only around $200 million annually between 1985 and 1991; a large percentage of the capital flows consisted of foreign aid, commercial borrowing and deposits of non-resident Indians. India's exports were stagnant for the first 15 years after independence, due to general neglect of trade policy by the government of that period. Imports in the same period, due to industrialisation being nascent, consisted predominantly of machinery, raw materials and consumer goods.
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Since liberalisation, the value of India's international trade has increased sharply, with the contribution of total trade in goods and services to the GDP rising from 16% in 1990–91 to 47% in 2008–10. India accounts for 1.44% of exports and 2.12% of imports for merchandise trade and 3.34% of exports and 3.31% of imports for commercial services trade worldwide.[200] India's major trading partners are the European Union, China, the United States of America and the United Arab Emirates. In 2006–07, major export commodities included engineering goods, petroleum products, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, textiles and garments, agricultural products, iron ore and other minerals. Major import commodities included crude oil and related products, machinery, electronic goods, gold and silver.
In November 2010, exports increased 22.3 % year on year to Rs 850.63 billion (US$ 14 billion), while imports were up 7.5 % @ Rs 1251.33 billion (US$ 21 billion). Trade defilict for the same month dropped from Rs 468.65 billion (US$7.8 billion) in 2009 to Rs 400.7 billion (US$6.7 billion) in 2010
to 850.63 billion (US$14 billion)
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
ROLE OF MERCHENDIZE AND INVISIBLES IN BOP OF INDIA
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
• The balance of Payment is the method countries use to monitor all international monetary transactions at a specific period of time.
• The balance of payments classifies these transactions in two accounts – current account
capital account.
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
-15000.00
-10000.00
-5000.00
0.00
5000.00
10000.00
15000.00
20000.00
25000.00
30000.00
35000.00
Export Import Trade balance Invisibles, Current account Capital account
Years
Rupe
ss B
illio
n
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Brief analysis on the Role Of Merchandise, Current, Capital, in BOP of India
• Indian Economy is divided in to 3 parts pre-Industrialization, Industrialization and postInd
• In year between 1990-2004 the import and export of goods is aprox same. This will show on the BOP of indIa in netural or positive.
• But after the 2004 the import of goods and services is more than the export of goods and services. The import goes around Rs 200000 Billion. And exports reaches to only Rs 10000 Billion this show that India is huge dependent of the outsides goods means India is dependent on
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
CONTT…
• the other country. The more import and less export show the negative Trade Balance in BOP of India.
• Of this reason, the current a/c which include the a/c of export and import and unilateral transfer, it goes negative of worth Rs -5000 Billion in year 2012-2013.
• It means the Economy of India sells more Foreign currency and purchase less foreign currency.
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Export
- Nigam Raj- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Top 5 product exported by India
Total export by india accounts to $18941.82billion1. Refined Petroleum (19%)2. jewellery(6.5%)3. packaged mediaments(4.0%)4. Rice(2.2%)5. Cars(1.8%)6. others(66.5%)
19%7%4%2%2%67%
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Refined Petroleum(HS:2710)
Top 5 Countries that export Refined Petroleum
1. Netherlands (8.4%)
2. Russia (8.2%)
3. Singapore (7.2%)
4. India (6.1%)
5. United States (6.0%)
6. others(64.1%)India ranks 4th in exporting Refined Petroleum.
And it accounts to
8%8%7%6%
6%64%
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Jewellery(HS:7113)
Top 5 Countries that export Jewellery
1.India (23%)
2.China (9.8%)
3.Italy (8.0%)
4.Switzerland (7.5%)
5. United Arab Emirates (7.2%)
6.others(44.5%)
India ranks 1st in exporting Jewellery
23%
10%8%
8%7%
45%
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Packaged Medicaments(HS:3004)
Top 5 Countries that export Packaged Medicaments
1. Germany (14%)
2. United States (11%)
3. Switzerland (8.9%)
4. France (8.2%)
5. United Kingdom (6.6%)
6. others(51.3%)
India ranks 10th in exporting Packaged Medicaments (3.3%)
14%11%9%
8%7%
51%
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Rice(HS:1006)
Top 5 Countries that export Rice
1.India (26%)
2.Thailand (20%)
3.Vietnam (14%)
4.United States (8.7%)
5. Pakistan (8.4%)
6. others(22.9%)
India ranks 1st in exporting Rice.
26%
20%14%
9%8%
23%
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Cars(HS:8703)
Top 5 Countries that export Cars
1. Germany (23%)
2. Japan (16%)
3. United States (8.2%)
4. Canada (7.4%)
5. South Korea (6.6%)
6. others(38.8%)
India ranks 18th in exporting Cars (0.75%)
23%
16%8%7%7%
38%
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
ImportBy Nigam Raj
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Top 5 Product Imported by INDIA
1.CURDE PETROLEUM 30%2.GOLD 11%3.COAL 3.5%4.DIAMOND 3.3%5.PETROLEUM GAS 2.8%6.Other products 49 %
- Nigam Raj
1 CURDE PETROLEUM ; 30%
2 Gold; 11%
3 Coal; 4%
4 Diamond; 3%5 Petroleum Gas; 3%
6 other products; 49%
- Nigam Raj
1.Crude Petroleum (HS CODE:1217 )TOP FIVE COUNTRY IMPORT (HS 1217) Products
1 china ; 14.00%
2 india; 9.90%
3 japan; 9.90%4 south korea;
7.20%5 usa; 7.00%
6 other country ; 52.00%
Total % of world Consumptions
Out of 100 % China Import 14% of total world consumption of crude petroleum and after China ,India is the 2nd world largest crude oil Importer by the total contribution of 9.9 % of worth $133,378,245,867.84.
- Nigam Raj
2.GOLD ( HS 1190)TOP FIVE COUNTRY IMPORT (HS 1190) Products
1 switzerland; 15.00%
2 china; 15.00%
3 India; 15.00%
4 hongkong ; 14.00%5 USA, 4.60%
6 other country ; 37.00%
The 2nd top-most imported goods in India is Gold.India import 11% of total world consumptions of gold in the world & India is the 3rd Largest Importer of Gold around the Globe.
- Nigam Raj
TOP FIVE COUNTRY IMPORT (HS 2701) Products
Coal briquetts is the top 3rd products which is imported by India. In the total world consumption, INDIA contribute 11% of total world consumption of worth $15,757,271,686.43.
India is the 3rd largest Importer of Coal.
3.Coal Briquettes (HS: 2701)
1 japan ; 17.00%
2 china; 16.00%
3 India; 11.00%
4 south korea; 9.60%
5 tiawan; 5.50%
6 other country ; 40.90%
Total % of world Consumptions
- Nigam Raj
TOP FIVE COUNTRY IMPORT (HS 7102) Products
Diamond is the 4th largest product which is importd in INDIA. and India is the world largest importer of diamond.India import 30% of total world diamond. Of worth $14,633,290,967.38
4.Diamond (HS: 7102)
1 India; 30.00%
2 Bel-gium;
19.00%3 UK; 16.00%
4 South Africa; 6.90%
5 Switzer-
land; 5.80%
6 other country ; 22.30%
Total % of world Consumptions
- Nigam Raj
TOP FIVE COUNTRY IMPORT (HS 2711) Products
Petroleum gas is the 5th top products imported by India. And India is in 10th position entire globe . India import only 3% of total world petroleum gas.
5.Petroleum Gas (HS:2711)
1 Japan; 19.00%
2 Germany; 14.00%
3 South Korea; 7.40%4 Italy; 7.30%
5 china; 4.10%
6 other country ; 48.20%
Total % of world Consumptions
by-Nigam Raj, Sharda University
Conclusions
3 stages of change in Indian Economy are :• Pre-Industrial• Industrial• Post-Industrial
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
by-Nigam Raj, Sharda University
Top 5 Products exported by India 1.Refined Petroleum (19%) 2.Jewellery (6.5%) 3.Packaged Medicaments (4.0%)4.Rice(2.2%)5. Cars (1.8%) India ranks 4th in exporting Refined Petroleum.India ranks 1st in exporting Jewellery India ranks 10th in exporting Packaged Medicaments (3.3%)India ranks 1st in exporting Rice.India ranks 18th in exporting Cars (0.75%)
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
by-Nigam Raj, Sharda University
TOP FIVE PRODUCTS IMPORTED BY INDIACURDE PETROLEUM 30%GOLD 11%COAL 3.5%DIAMOND 3.3%PETROLEUM GAS 2.8% India is the 2nd wolrd lagest crude oil consumers by the total contribution of 9.9 % of worth $133,378,245,867.84. The 2nd most imported goods in india is Gold.India import 11% of total world consumptions of gold in the world. Coal briquetts is the top 3rd products which is imported by India. In the total world consumption, INDIA contribute 11% of total world consumption of worth $15,757,271,686.43.
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Diamond is the 4th largest product which is importd in INDIA. and India is the world largrest importer of diamond.India import 30% of total world diamond. Of worth $14,633,290,967.38 Petroleum gas is the 5th top products imported by India. And India is in 10th position entire globe . India import only 3% of total world petroleum gas. The economy of Indiais the tenth-largest in the world by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity Total Exports = 18941.82 billionTotal Imports = 27141.82 billionTrade Balance = -8200 billion
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
India’s GLOBAL RANK INExporting is 17th
Importing is 10th
Hence, its clear that India is a good importer.
- Nigam Raj,Sharda University
Thank You!!!