Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Households Satellite Account for France in
2010.
Methodological issues on the assessment of
domestic production.
Aurélien Poissonnier, Delphine Roy([email protected])
Insee-Dese & Crest & École Polytechnique
IATUR 2014 - Turku
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Introduction
• ongoing debates about GDP and its prevalence as ameasure of economic activity (with abusive generalizationto welfare)
• domestic production still one third to one half of GDP indeveloped economies (Hawrylyshyn, 1976 ; Chadeau, 1992; Roy 2011)
• development and recommendations for HouseholdsSatellite Accounts (Eurostat, 2003)
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Plan
1 A households satellite account for France in 2010
2 Some international comparisons
3 Methodological issues behind the HHSATime and wage issuesAccounting issues
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Plan
1 A households satellite account for France in 2010
2 Some international comparisons
3 Methodological issues behind the HHSA
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
What we do
• HHSA based on Time Use Survey (TUS) and input method
• value hours worked with wages from annual declaration ofsocial data (DADS) �lled by all employers
• derive the complete sequence of accounts (production tocapital account)
• detail functions of domestic production (housing, food,clothing, care, transportation and shopping)
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Domestic working time from TUS
Overall at least as many hours of domestic work as paidworking time
Table: Average working time per person for three possible perimetersof domestic work
Perimeter core (I) intermediate (II) extensive (III)
Daily 2 h 07 3 h 04 3 h 53Weekly 14 h 50 21 h 30 27 h 14
Share ofvolunteerwork
3.7% 3.8% 5%
Women'sShare
72% 64% 60%
Coverage: individuals aged 11 and over, France (excl. French Guyana and Mayotte).Source: Insee, 2010 Time Use Survey.
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Production account
Table: Houshehold domestic production account for three de�nitionsof production in France in 2010
in billion euros
Core Intermediate ExtensivePerimeter Perimeter Perimeter
Labour 687 72% 944 77% 1 239 76%IC 255 27% 268 22% 315 19%CFC 17 2% 19 2% 84 5%
Dom. Prod. 959 100% 1 231 100% 1 639 100%Gross VA 704 73% 963 78% 1 324 81%
Source: National accounts - Base 2005, Insee - our calculations
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Compared orders of magnitude in
billion e
• GDP 1,937 be; Consumption 1,085 be; GDI 1,290 be
• Domestic production 959 be to 1,639 be• Revisions with the core perimeter
• Domestic Value Added +704 be (+36% GDP)• Consumption: +686 be in the core perimeter (+63%)• GDI: +704 be (same as value added) (+55%)• Savings ratio: from 16% to 11%
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Ventilation by functions
Table: Ventilation of domestic production in 2010 in France (Coreperimeter)
in billion e
Housing Food Cloth. Care Transp. Total♦ Volunteer
276 472 68 100 43 959 2829% 49% 7% 10% 5% 100% 3%
♦: Total is excluding volunteer workSource: National accounts - Base 2005, Insee - our calculations
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
They do it themselves
• domestic food production: 472 be > cons. in restaurantsand eateries: 59 be
• household upkeep: 276 be > 9 be for employinggardeners, housekeepers...
• clothing 68 be > 2 be of dry cleaning
• transportation 43 be > 28 be in taxi, train, plane, bus,metro...
• care 100 be > Social work activities (67 be) including GGand NPISH personal consumption
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Plan
1 A households satellite account for France in 2010
2 Some international comparisons
3 Methodological issues behind the HHSA
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Table: HHSA estimates in 5 countries: e�ects on key macroeconomicaggregates
Revisions Income and Savings ratioCountry Year GDP Cons. Income SNA4 non-SNA4
USA 1946 +50% +63% +59% 8.3% 10.8%USA 1965 +39% +49% +49% 8.6% 11.5%USA 1997 +36% +34% +38% 1.8% 8.5%USA 2004 +27% +26% +32% 1.8% 4.2%
Finland 2001 +40% +59% +81% -1.2% 0.2%Finland 2006 +39% +55% +77% -1.8% -0.3%
Basque 1993 +49% +74%* - - -Basque 1998 +39% +64%* - - -Basque 2003 +33% +56%* - - -
UK 2000 +63%* +95%* +93%* 4.2% -6.9%*
Finland 2001 +36% - - - -Germany 2001 +43% - - - -
*: our calculations, -: not available4: SNA refers to production and other concepts as de�ned by the System ofNational Accounts, while non-SNA refers the extension of these concepts for thepurpose of the Households Satellite Account.Cons.: household �nal consumption includes individual consumption except forBasque Country
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Table: HHSA estimates in 5 countries: e�ects on key macroeconomicaggregates
Revisions Income and Savings ratioCountry Year GDP Cons. Income SNA4 non-SNA4
USA 1946 +50% +63% +59% 8.3% 10.8%USA 1965 +39% +49% +49% 8.6% 11.5%USA 1997 +36% +34% +38% 1.8% 8.5%USA 2004 +27% +26% +32% 1.8% 4.2%
Finland 2001 +40% +59% +81% -1.2% 0.2%Finland 2006 +39% +55% +77% -1.8% -0.3%
Basque 1993 +49% +74%* - - -Basque 1998 +39% +64%* - - -Basque 2003 +33% +56%* - - -
UK 2000 +63%* +95%* +93%* 4.2% -6.9%*
Finland 2001 +36% - - - -Germany 2001 +43% - - - -
*: our calculations, -: not available4: SNA refers to production and other concepts as de�ned by the System ofNational Accounts, while non-SNA refers the extension of these concepts for thepurpose of the Households Satellite Account.Cons.: household �nal consumption includes individual consumption except forBasque Country
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Plan
1 A households satellite account for France in 2010
2 Some international comparisons
3 Methodological issues behind the HHSA
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Plan
1 A households satellite account for France in 2010
2 Some international comparisons
3 Methodological issues behind the HHSATime and wage issuesAccounting issues
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
What is domestic work ?
No objective de�nition
third party criterion and reference to social norms are notenoughFrontier of SNA production is imperfect and arbitrary, HHSAwill be just as much !
Test three perimeters
Debatable cases for productive leisures, child care,self-transportation
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
We favour the core perimeter
• most consensual
• less subject to productivity overestimation
Sensitivity
Working time: almost doubled (Table 1)Production: +30% from I to II, +71% from I to III (Table 2)
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Substitute wage
Prefer specialized substitute
Each wage valued at the average hourly wage of the leastquali�ed specialistAverage hourly wage for domestic task ≡ 17e/h gross or ≡10e/h net
Generalist substitute OKOnly 3% lower than specialised substituteComposition e�ect: only ±0.1%Simpler method - good alternative
Minimium wage NO
National re�ex: SMIC 10.4e/h gross, 6.9e/h netVery country speci�c, not suited for comparisonsScales down by 40% the value of domestic work
Opportunity cost NO
Welfare based
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Gross or net wage
Market production: taxes and social contributions are part ofproductionBlack market: no taxes but how prices/quality are a�ected?Domestic production: ? Chose convention of gross wages; netwage -41% of domestic work
Worked and paid times
Constraint of the data sourceReference time in sources: TUS= worked time; DADS= paidtimeOn aggregate 22% wedge but no information on detailedoccupations
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Plan
1 A households satellite account for France in 2010
2 Some international comparisons
3 Methodological issues behind the HHSATime and wage issuesAccounting issues
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Input or output: di�erent models...
Implicit model with output method
Non market production is a constraint (social norms, limitedtime or �nancial ressources)If HH could they would buy from the market ⇒ market price isa correct valuation for domestic production
Implicit model with input method
Non market production is a choice ⇒ domestic production isessentially di�erent from market equivalentInput method should be preferred
... with a common problem
what is the right price (wage)? ... with a welfare temptation
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
The driving to the shop to purchase
food to cook dinner problem
Eurostat recommend distributing the production of ancillaryfunctions to principal functions.PB Confrontation with other data is needed for this reallocationwhile the complete ventilation may be found interesting.Reallocating ancillary production implies +5% production butidentical consumption and value added.
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Invisibility of volunteer work
Domestic work for other households (2 billion hours) is notincluded in total domestic work (40 billion h in the coreperimeter).Equivalent to 3% of production.Volunteer work = NPISH production is not HH consumptionexpenditureImputing a wage for this work modi�es net lending-netborrowing with no actual �nancial transaction as a counterpart !We value domestic work separately.
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Savings ratio
• SNA savings ratio 15.9% in 2010
• HHSA savings ratio 11.2% with gross wages
• 13.0% with net wages
• -3.4% if prod. valued with gross wages but taxes andsocial contrib. are imputed in the HHSA
Third case raises serious accounting inconsistencies
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Summarized results
Favoured estimation+36% GDP; +63% Cons.; +55% GDI and −5pts savings ratioDomestic productions outweigh market equivalents
Sensitivity of domestic production to methodologicalchoices
• De�nition of domestic production +71% prod
• Net wages -30% prod
• Generalized substitute method -2% prod
• Double counts +5%
• Distribution of ancillary functions +5%, neutral on Cons.and VA
• All durables are productive +8%
• Sensitivity to PIM hyp. ±6% on CFC, only ±0.1% on prod
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Thank you for your attention
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Double countssome production for own �nal use in SNA : kitchen garden, �shand game... and major maintenance of dwellings
in billion e
HHSA Activity Gardening... ConstructionHours*wage 49 2.7
SNA B1=P12-P2 2.5 2.3P12 3.4 4.9P2 0.9 2.6
Source: Insee : National accounts - Base 2005, Time Use Survey 2010, DADS 2010 - ourcalculations
Table: Labour input from TUS and Output for own �nal use
• Double counts - TUS ⇒ +5% of domestic production.• Overestimation of productivity with input method• Favour preexisting estimate
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
Reclassi�cations from �nal
consumption
... to intermediate consumption
• 23% of households �nal consumption expenditure (coreperimeter)
• from 255 to 315 billion e (due to car use)
... to investment (GFCF)
• 2% of households �nal consumption expenditure (coreperimeter)
• convention: durables used for recreational purposes arenot productive
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
The Taxes, subsidies and changes
in inventories dilemmas
Taxes and subsidies
• could impute taxes and subsidies
• could also reallocate some personal cons. of GG to subsidies(food bank)
• main amounts are properly treated (dwellings, car)
• residual amounts are small (sub. are conditional on prod.)
• raise accounting issues on net lending- net borrowing
Changes in inventories
• users' and producers' stocks, also work in progress
• users' stock where already accounted for in SNA
• Intuition: mainly work in progress for major maintenance ofdwellings (already accounted for)
• others: jars of jam, un�nished knitting (hyp=0)
HHSAFrance 2010
Poissonnier -Roy
HHSA 2010
International
Issues behindHHSA
Time andwage issues
Perimeter
Substitutewage
Gross or net
Accountingissues
Output Input
Ancillaryfunctions
Volunteering
Savings ratio
The new de�nition of capital and
the measurement of its services
What is productive capital?
Input method: capital input = depreciationAll durables depreciate, are they all productive ?Assume that durables for recreational use are not productiveAssuming that all durables are productive ⇒ +8% productionin core perimeter
How to measure durables services?We use the Perpetual Inventory Method, ±6% of CFC but only±0.1% prod.More precise and less conventional method would be better
especially if exhaustive de�nition of capital is chosen.
