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Future of the Sharing Economy An Emerging View
30 March 2017 The world’s leading open foresight program
Context – The Sharing Economy Humans have always shared. More recently, enabled by technology, new forms of sharing and access have begun to transform industries as well as the way we live our lives, creaEng financial return and social reward for parEcipants.
Asking for Feedback This document brings together a number of exisEng insights on how the
sharing economy is evolving across varied arenas. To build a richer view for all, we are inviEng feedback and comments on what is here and what is missing.
Thema<c Shi=s Building on insights from Future Agenda discussions and addiEonal dialogue,
we have idenEfied three inter-‐related themes around which future change will impact the sharing economy.
Crossing the chasm
Access not ownership
Data interpretaEon
IoT and Blockchain power
Deeper collaboraEon
Crowd Powered
FricEonless TransacEons
Individual Control
Human Touch
PlaPorm DisintermediaEon
Enabling regulaEon
Distributed trust
Fairer sharing
Quality markets
Augmented reputaEon
Access to Value New ways to access greater value emerge.
Technology unlocks new value, increases uElisaEon and reduces cost of access. As access improves, so the sharing market broadens and deepens.
Crossing the chasm
Access not ownership
Data interpretaEon
IoT and Blockchain power
Deeper collaboraEon
Crossing the Chasm Timely access to informaEon and beSer transparency on markets
enable more to parEcipate in peer-‐to-‐peer marketplaces. Mass market penetraEon is supported by a wider ecosystem of enabling ancillary services.
Future Shi= More sharing plaPorms conEnue to proliferate, growing and segmenEng
the market with new innovaEon. Winners emerge to dominate, consolidate and broaden their service offer. Incumbents respond.
Today TradiEonal economy
dominant with c.50% of consumers aware of sharing. Up to a 1/3 of adults have parEcipated in sharing. Sharing economy dominated by 5 major areas: accommodaEon, transport, on-‐demand household services, on-‐demand professional services and collaboraEve finance.
2022
Sharing penetrates the mass market. Major sharing plaPorms grow to equal their tradiEonal market equivalents. Sharing spreads into new sectors including insurance, uEliEes, health and social care. More incumbents respond incorporaEng lessons into their own businesses as well as purchasing, invesEng in, partnering with and creaEng new ventures.
Access Not Ownership Rising sustainability imperaEves and increasing
cost of ownership shi_ the balance from ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy.
Future Shi= Increasing depth and breadth of sharing plaPorm product and service provision reduces barriers to adopEon and usage.
Today Consumerism, ready
access to credit and distant environmental concerns ensure ownership dominates ion many sectors. Transport and accommodaEon access is building in some largely urban market. Concerns around sharing plaPorm trust and quality limit uptake.
2022
Car ownership in major urban centres begins to decline as we hit peak car. Increased sharing plaPorm liquidity together with improvements in trust and quality encourage many more to access rather than own products across a broadening porPolio.
Data Interpreta<on Escala<on AI and quantum compuEng increase our ability to combine informaEon, construct
models to make beSer use of data. This results in a step change in data interpretaEon, reducing cost, increasing uElisaEon and providing many new opportuniEes
Future Shi= An emergent fronEer with abundance of data but liSle knowledge on how to
exploit it gives way to a more mature and digiEsed environment where real-‐Eme analyEcs, pervasive connecEvity and skilled data interpretaEon are the norm.
Today Much data interpretaEon
is improving across the consumer and business arenas. However people and organisaEons don’t always know how to create value from their data. DisrupEve technologies and business models seek to exploit opportuniEes but decisions are sEll largely made on judgements.
2022
Data and access to it grows exponenEally as digital pervades and data marketplaces emerge. Individuals retain more ownership of their data and opt to share it. We become more digitally capable and disciplined in creaEng value from data. Real-‐Eme analyEcs and data interpretaEon become the affordable norm.
IoT and Blockchain Powered Sharing As more objects and people become interconnected, so the opportunity to share and benefit from access increases. Blockchain technologies liberate sharing from plaPorms.
Future Shi= As the IoT develops, it will further automate the exposing of idle capacity
while also making the facilitaEon of booking and sharing simpler.
Today The majority of Internet
enabled sharing takes place via centralised plaPorms. The potenEal for every device to have a connecEon is recognised but is not yet at scale. Human users acEvely parEcipaEng to provide and manage supply and demand.
2022
1 trillion connected things drive significantly beSer resource use and add even more connecEvity. The emergence of passive sharing, in which objects manage their own presence (e.g. updaEng their own booking calendar) with their owners permission. Blockchain enabled sharing enables more value creaEon.
Deeper Collabora<on and Real Sharing Partnerships shi_ to become more dynamic, long-‐term, democraEsed,
mulE-‐party collaboraEons. CompeEtor alliances and wider public parEcipaEon drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empatheEc collaboraEon.
Future Shi= Going forward, addressing the big problems are seen to require completely
different ways of thinking and cooperaEng and deeper, wider, more meaningful collaboraEon is, for many, an important part of the puzzle.
Today The residual approach to
intellectual property creaEon, ownership and trading is more of a barrier to collaboraEon than an enabler. But collaboraEon in innovaEon is increasingly becoming more public and shi_ing from bilateral partnerships to more grand challenges such as X-‐prizes that engage a wider community.
2022 CollaboraEon in innovaEon is
increasingly open as mulEple authors are recognised and shared informaEon is no longer owned by any individual. A real sharing economy emerges as increasing collaboraEon drives organisaEons to reconfigure based on social networks and impact. Real sharing enterprises, not driven solely by profits, seek to share resources, knowledge, and decision-‐making responsibiliEes.
Improved Trust and Transparency Trust remains the criEcal enabler of the sharing economy.
Alongside building plaPorm trust, distributed, regulatory as well as social trust all grow.
Enabling regulaEon
Distributed trust
Fairer sharing
Quality markets
Augmented reputaEon
Enabling Regula<on and Governance As society adjusts to new models of commerce, regulaEon on sharing moves from a reacEve to proacEve stance -‐ beSer protecEng consumers, providers
and plaPorms alike. PlaPorms also choose to lead and self-‐regulate.
Future Shi= Regulators put in place new or augmented legislaEon and standards
that are beSer designed to create value for a world in which network based sharing is common.
Today Regulators lag the
disruptors, principally seeking to check that they fit and operate within exisEng legislaEon. Incumbents and unions are highly acEve in lobbying and seeking to protect the status quo.
2022
RegulaEon is put in place to embrace the sharing economy. Provider worker rights in the sharing economy are secured, giving them not only a social safety net but also a share in the value they create.
Distributed Trust (source: RachelBotsman.com) Trustworthiness of individuals to share moves from pure insEtuEonal
plaPorm-‐based mechanisms to be augmented by more distributed approaches that are more transparent, inclusive, decentralised, accountable and boSom-‐up.
Future Shi= Distributed trust mechanisms and networks emerge,
enabled by more pervasive technology and wider recogniEon. Greater control within the network builds confidence.
Today Consumer trust in sharing
driven by plaPorms own acEvity (e.g. security, regulaEon, team, delivery partners) and brand reputaEon is augmented by consumer peer reviews. PlaPorms provide insurance and re-‐assurance for users. Virtually zero carriage of trust between networks (e.g. eBay raEngs do not count on AirBnB / Uber).
2022
ExisEng centralised trust mechanisms are augmented with more portable consumer and network based (e.g. blockchain) soluEons. Consumer access to and control of their own data and its ability to be shared with mulEple parEes together with the emergence of trusted data and reputaEon agents all contribute.
Fairer Sharing To miEgate against actual or perceived abuse of power, sharing plaPorms are challenged to beSer represent the needs of all their stakeholders and be part of
society. Those who succeed in doing so build greater legiEmacy and trust.
Future Shi= PlaPorm operators acEvely seek to promote fairer sharing for
the wider benefit of society rather than for a select few. AuthenEc, credible impact is pivotal.
Today Sharing economy is
perceived by some as circumnavigaEng regulaEon and abusing market power, especially workers rights. Value is viewed as accruing to the few rather than the many. The blurring of consumers and producers to ‘prosumers’ -‐ who do both -‐ is a complicaEon for regulators.
2022
Fairer, more equitable and more ‘human’ sharing for all stakeholders emerges. Values driven, authenEc and fair for both providers and consumers. Major plaPorms make efforts to increase responsibility and produce socially beneficial outcomes – being part of society rather than apart from it.
Quality Markets As new plaPorms proliferate and wider market consolidaEon gets underway,
the winners are defined by the quality of product, service and communicaEons. Global and regional plaPorms vie to demonstrate impact and trust.
Future Shi= A period of proliferaEon is followed by consolidaEon with standards of service a pre-‐requisite for sustained progress.
This leaves relaEvely few dominant plaPorms in all markets and geographies.
Today Sharing players
proliferate to fill new niches and emerging markets. PlaPorms fight for liquidity and volume to saEsfy both users and investors as well as to gain market dominance. Performance track records emerge. Some plaPorms fail and close.
2022
By 2022, the winners in most markets and regions will have emerged. The are defined by quality and service provision – as laid bare by performance track records and consumer reviews. Laggards close or are merged to create dominant plaPorms.
Augmented Reputa<on In order to validate the quality and impact of plaPorms, new trusted
currencies of reputaEon, exchange and meaning emerge to facilitate transacEons, trade, authenEcaEon and validaEon.
Future Shi= We move from a human driven network of raEngs to one where technology
plays a greater role – recording, tracking and sharing independent accurate performance insights that complement personal feedback.
Today Trust and reputaEon
provided by effecEve but relaEvely linear and shallow proxies (e.g. user reviews, providers own due diligence with liSle plaPorm verificaEon or validaEon). There is liSle independent verificaEon and validaEon of quality of service beyond personal raEngs.
2022
ReputaEon arises from from mulEple sources to build deeper levels of trust. e.g. sensors that capture events in real Eme give an extra level of performance review, helping ensure owners’ objects are being looked a_er. New social currencies (e.g. collaboraEon Eme) build reputaEon and social status.
Enhanced Experience Powered by technology and the crowd, services become beSer, easier to use, more efficient and seek to put the user in control.
Leaders broaden their service offer.
Crowd Powered
FricEonless TransacEons
Individual Control
Human Touch
PlaPorm DisintermediaEon
Crowd Powered Crowd feedback enables rapid service improvement while crowd parEcipaEon
opens up enErely new service offers and improves engagement. Leaders seek to engage to create, develop, secure and maintain legiEmacy.
Future Shi= Deeper, community based learning cultures and the ability to deploy crowd knowledge quickly into live environments help
to separate the plaPorm winners from the losers.
Today PlaPorms vary in their
embrace of the crowd. While most use crowd reviews and welcome wide community feedback, only some acEvely seek to culEvate members as acEve parEcipants in their own business development.
2022
The crowd becomes central to service evoluEon and as a result become more engaged. As co-‐creators more openly collaborate, mulEple stories emerge from the everyday fuelling further growth. OrganisaEons build deep learning cultures and operaEonal capability to apply learning quickly.
Fric<onless Transac<ons Reducing fricEon at every stage of the transacEon enhances customer experience and removes pain points. PlaPorm liquidity, inventory management as well as
transacEon execuEon are all powered by smarter use of data and AI.
Future Shi= As transacEonal fricEon reduces, organisaEons become increasingly
aware of the benefits to be gained from good fricEon – curated interacEons that add value and enhance the users’ experience.
Today OrganisaEons focus on
improving process flows to maximise conversion using ex-‐post data and standard analysis. Decreasing ficEon is an increasingly common objecEve across many sectors but o_en one that is not executed well and so becomes more visible at pivotal stages.
2022
OrganisaEons focus on using data to inform process change and decisioning, o_en in real Eme and using AI where useful. Seamless payments distance consumers from understanding monetary value. Brands reconsider the way they connect to customers providing more holisEc and emoEonal value.
Individual Control New disrupEve providers seek to put the individual in control of their personal data, dis-‐intermediaEng data-‐intensive businesses. Power over data shi_s from the organisaEon to the individual.
Future Shi= Cross industry digital idenEty stores increasingly allow consumer
to control and manage their data use, supporEng wider acceptance of data sharing across more plaPorms.
Today Individual control of
informaEon is perceived but not effecEve. Major social plaPorms and established insEtuEons control ever more data and seek to gain value. The need for personal access control is discussed but not acted upon at scale.
2022
Personal data stores and privacy agents are increasingly accepted and commonplace. Pervasive and trusted automated authenEcaEon allows for more informed consent. Personal informaEon manager apps qualify and quanEfy data sharing and allocate value.
Human Touch As service provision and consumpEon becomes ever more digital,
automated and algorithmic, those brands that can offer more emoEonal engagement and human-‐to-‐human contact become increasingly aSracEve.
Future Shi= Humans possess an innate, self-‐correcEon mechanism that is sEll difficult to replicate in machines. As automaEon and AI have ever greater impact and we move to the singularity, the role of people at key points in the process is prized.
Today In a push to reduce cost
and provide more value to users, services become ever more digital, automated and algorithmic. This drives transacEonal efficiency and accelerates growth but the leaders in automaEon, make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for customers to meet or speak to an employee.
2022
As digital efficiency commodiEses, real differenEaEon occurs with select human intervenEon and touches. This reassures users and creates significant brand differenEaEon. Within the experience, human touch increasingly provides and enhances the moments that maSer in brand experiences.
PlaNorm Disintermedia<on Enabled by network-‐based soluEons (e.g. blockchain), providers and buyers by-‐pass centralised sharing plaPorms to go direct -‐
taking back control, value and equity.
Future Shi= The possibility of more network based sharing emerges
to gradually challenge plaPorm supremacy, returning more value and control to users.
Today The sharing economy is
largely dominated by centralised plaPorms that provide trusted marketplaces for exchange and enforce standards (e.g. Uber – the vehicle, driver, insurance, legal etc.). Many of these centralised plaPorms extract most of the value.
2022
Enabled by new technology development, some transacEons move to more distributed networks. This reduces plaPorm margins and returns more value to users. A baSle for efficiency develops between plaPorms and would-‐be plaPorm disintermediaries.
Ques<ons for You As we share and build on this view we would like to know what you agree with, what you don’t, what is missing and, most importantly, what will
be some of the key impacts and implicaEons – both globally and regionally.
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