Education Futures: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?

Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

Artist: Heyko Stoeber

Education Futures:

Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?

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Riel Miller

EDUCATIONAL FUTURESLeadership and PracticeThe Open University, Milton Keynes, May 17,

2011


Two Big Changes

Fundamental

indeterminacy and the

creativity of the universe

Heterarchy and the Learning Intensive Society

murmuration

1. In the way we think about the world.2. In the way we organize the world.


1. Embracing Complexity: Changing the way we use the

future

Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©


The End of Certainty

… we are now able to include probabilities in the formulation of the basic laws of physics. Once this is done, Newtonian determinism fails; the future is no longer determined by the present….

Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new rationality in which science is no longer identified with certitude and probability with ignorance. … science is no longer limited to idealized and simplified situations but reflects the complexity of the real world, a science that views us and our creativity as part of a fundamental trend present at all levels of nature.Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature


The possible is not in the future it is in the past.“We must resign ourselves to the

inevitable: it is the real which makes itself possible, and not the possible which becomes real. But the truth is

that philosophy has never frankly admitted this continuous creation of

unforeseeable novelty.”

Henri Bergson, The Creative Mind


Caught in the Probabilistic Stance: Probable, Possible, Plausible



What difference does it make?

After all everyday life goes on.

So why bother?• It changes what we see.• It changes what we

imagine.• It changes what we

resist.• It changes what we

preserve.• It changes how we

preserve what we want to preserve.

• It changes the conditions of change.


Then what? If we accept this ontological starting point – how to make it practical?

A. Take an anticipatory systems perspective that encompasses both animate and inanimate anticipation.

B. Distinguish the three ontological dimensions of the potential of the present – three ways of imagining the future and the different methods that are related to each (ontology-epistemology linked).

C. Learning processes that use collective intelligence – action research, reframing, and narrative capacity to question anticipatory assumptions – embracing complexity, spontaneity, improvisation.


What is Futures Literacy?


Futures Literacy: ambient strategic thinking

Futures Literacy is the capacity to tell anticipatory stories using rigorous imagining based on sharing depth of knowledge from across the community. FL is a way of internalizing the constant development of our understanding of the potential of the emergent present and of changing anticipatory assumptions.


A. Anticipatory Systems



Anticipatory Systems View

S : object system

M : model of S

E : effector system

Source: Robert Rosen, Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, & Methodological Foundations., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1985. Slide by A. H. Louie, Mathematical Biologist


“The main difference between forecasting and scenarios on the one hand, and anticipation on the other, is that the latter is a property of the system, intrinsic to its functioning, while the former are cognitive strategies that a system A develops in order to understand the future of some other system B (of which A may or may not be a component element). … The theory of anticipatory systems can therefore be seen as comprising both first- and third-person information.”Roberto Poli, 2010


B. Three dimensions

of the potential of the present


Contingency futures: a tsunami


Contingency futures: winning the lottery


Optimization Futures: Chess, Farming, Assembly Line

• Non-complex goal, known in advance and fixed

• Rules are given in advance and fixed

• Resources are given in advance and fixed


Exploratory futures: imagining the potential of the present



C. Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method

Rigorous imagining – developing analytically rich and imaginative stories of a functioning society as a way to question our assumptions.


Futures Literacy: Decision Making CapacityUsing the Future for Knowledge Creation, Discovery and Communication

Narrative

Capacity

Capacity to Reframe

Collective

Intelligence (interactive sense

making)


Futures Literacy in Practice

• Level 1 futures literacy–Temporal awareness,

values, expectations

• Level 2 futures literacy–Rigorous imagining

• Level 3 futures literacy–Strategic scenarios


Anticipatory Methods: Context Makes a Difference

ExplorationComplex

Simple Close

dOpe

n

Optimization

(chess game)

Aligning Anticipatory Contexts and Systems:

Embracing Complexity – Use Futures Literacy


2. The Learning Intensive Society Scenario – A Level 2

ModelTechnology

Economy

Governance

Society

Scale of the change:• Incremental radicalism

transforms everyday life• Within one or two generations• Disrupts most institutions• Alters culture & values

Attributes of the model:• Descriptive variables• Not limited by how it is done• Not causal• Not path• Imagining possibilities


Industrial(goods & services,public & private)

Craft/Creative

Household

Agriculture

Agricultural

Society

Industrial Society

Learning

Intensive

Compositional Transformation

Share of total wealth creation by source


Learning in every day life is more intense if, in daily life, over a lifetime, people generate (flow) and accumulate (stock) more:

– know-how

– know-who

– know-what

– know-why


Greater Learning Intensity of Daily Life

Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting; [email protected]

Average intensity of know-what

Average intensity of know-how

Average intensity of know-who

Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity)

Agricultural SocietyAgricultural Society Industrial SocietyIndustrial Society Learning SocietyLearning Society

ccruz

Procedural knowledge (methods/processes)

ccruz

Declarative knowledge (facts)

ccruz

Networking knowledge (contacts, resources)

ccruz

Causal knowledge (foundations, reasons)


Moving to the Micro-Level: Complex societal evolution

• Economic • Social• Governan

ce

Photo credit: Mark Schacter, www.luxetveritas.ca


Systemic Economic Transformation: Changes What and

How We Produce

“Next stage” of market economy – beyond mass-production and mass-consumption

• Unique creation – what is value?

• How do we organize value creation?

• Predominant type of economic activity

• Scope of transaction systems


Unique creation

Low learning intensity

High learning intensity

Mass-producti

on

Creating wealth – changing sources of value-added

Mass-era worker

and consumer

Empowered team-worker,

informed shopper

Artist/researcher/

learner

Beyond the dualism of supply & demand

Organisation of Value Added

Relationship of actor(s) to

object


Teasing the Imagination: Tools for Unique Creation





First car produced

using a “desk-top factory”


Industrial EraSequential Production, Consumption, Resource

Deployment ProcessSupply

Demand

Allocation

Supply

Demand

Allocation

Repeat cycl

e


Conception

Management

Execution



Starlings Flying in a FlockImagine Clouds of Unique Creation

Flows of Collaboration and Experience

Local and Global, Multiple Dynamic Communities - Heterarchical

Murmuration


Describing Social Dimensions of the LIS

• Attributes of identity: – sources– structure– dynamics

• Patterns of social status - affiliation

• Ecology of culture - capacity to be free

Social dynamism

Towards greater heterogeneity


Hetero-geneous/

small

Homo-geneous

/large Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how

Less choice

More choic

e

Scale of social

affiliation/identity

Identity & choice

Mass-era

Learning Intensiv

e Society

Beyond individual vs collective: banal creativity


Describing Governance Dimensions of the LIS

Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity

Quality of decision making:• Extent to which best

information is used• Transparency of the network• Extent of opportunties to

experiment• Knowing how to learn

Dynamic Governance

Towards greater responsibility


Governance: capacity to make decisions

Experimentation & learning

Transparency & access to

information

Limited & fragmente

d

Extensive &

unified

Mass-era

Learning Intensive Society

Limited

Continuous

Capacity for reframing and sense making: spontaneity


Less manageable – less clarity of

goal

More reflexivity

More manageable –

more clarity of goal

Less reflexivity

Greater freedom and ambiguity - spontaneity

Regime 1 (Agriculture)

Regime 2 (Industrial)

Regime 3 (Learning society)

A changing context for knowledge creation

New conditions for education leadership and practice

Different contexts and times?


1 – More university graduates does not increase wealth nor lead to “greater

competitive” advantage

Why? Three sets of changes:A. The preponderant source of wealth

is no longer industrial (tangible or intangible).

B. The primary source of productivity increases is learning by doing, i.e. experience that allows for refinement of taste (self-knowledge)

C. Unique creation is local, ideas are global and tangibles are cheap


Changing Composition of Output

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Time

Perc

enta

ge S

hare

Industrial products Innovation (S&T/R&D)

Personal products Creativity (Refinement of taste)


2 – Reducing classroom schooling helps to avoid fundamentalism

Functions of Industrial School• Custody: keeping pupils safe and secure (99%)

• Behavioural rules: instilling punctuality, obedience, respect for hierarchy (95%)

• Cognitive development: literacy, numeracy, test scores (?)

• Socialisation: internalisation of specific values towards civic life (?)

• Screening and sorting: reproduces (legitimately) socio-economic differences (95%)


Knowledge Creation and Destruction: Remembering, forgetting and

inventing

Living knowledge(stock)

Discovery(flow)

Public sectorPreservation Net

new

Private sectorPreservation Net

new

Cover it allNon-institutional

Source: Etienne Wegner


3 – The wealthiest societies have the highest average

ageThe productivity of unique creation and the quality of decision making capacity both increase, all other things being equal, with experience and better information – this is the wisdom economy – the know why society.


Transformation“Society is now at a stage in history in which one pulse is ending and another beginning. The immense destruction that a new pulse signals is both frightening and creative. It raises fundamental questions about transformation. The only way to approach such a period, in which uncertainty is very large and one cannot predict what the future holds, is not to predict, but to experiment and act inventively and exuberantly via diverse adventures in living.”C.S. “Buzz” Hollings, “Coping with Transformational Change”, Options, IIASA, Summer 2010



A time for method and methods for our time

Why futures literacy now? Because a futures literate society can use:– diversification, imagination and inter-

dependency to

• embrace spontaneity, experimentation & complexity

• without being overwhelmed by – fear of the risks (perception)– failure (reality of risk)

• in order to inspire aspirations consistent with a world where means are ends (values in practice)


Thank [email protected]

Image: Sempe

How we anticipate matters – it changes

the present

Economy & Finance

Education Futures: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?