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An update by Utah economist John Matthews on the economy in northern Utah
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An Economic UpdateU.S., Utah, Box Elder, Cache and
Rich Counties
Society for Human Resource Management, Bridgerland
Chapter
February 19, 2009
Utah Components of Population Change
Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
-25,000
-5,000
15,000
35,000
55,000
75,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Per
son
s
Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Change
Utah State Employment Growth Rates1950 – 2010f
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1960 1970 1980 19901950
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: January 2009 f = forecast
2000
3.3% average since 1960
2010
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
90 95 00
Year-Over Percent Change
In Non-farm Jobs
05
Utah
U.S.
Dec.2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08
Utah Unemployment Rate1973 – 2008
Percent
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: January 2009
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Initial Unemployment Insurance ClaimsUtah 1986 – 2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: January 2009
86 90 00 09
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
77 82 87 92 97 02 07
Utah Employment Change1976 – 2010
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: January 2009
22 Months 8 Months 8 Months 18 Months
September2010
-400
-3,100
-4,300
-3,700
5,400
-600
3,200
-800
-13,100
1,000
-5,200
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Education and Health
Government
Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change)2008 – 2009
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Prof., and Business
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Here in Box Elder, Cache, & Rich
Counties
Population
Box Elder & Cache County Population1989 to 2008
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Month & Year
Box Elder
Cache
Source: Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section September 2008.
2000-2008 Annual Growth RateBox Elder 2.0%
Cache 3.1%Rich 2.4%
Employment
Box Elder & Cache NonFarm Jobs1989 to 2008
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
89 J O J A
92 J O J A
95 J O J A
98 J O J A
01 J O J A
04 J O J A
07 J O J
Month & Year
Box Elder
Cache
Source: Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce Information February 2009.
New Jobs Growth Rate 2006-2007 Box Elder = 4.6% Cache = 3.8% Rich = 5.2%
Box Elder County Employment
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
19,500
20,000
20,500
21,000
00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008
04 0605 07 08
Box Elder County Employment Growth Rates
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jan-06
FebMarAprMayJun JulAugSepOctNovDecJan-07
FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan-08
FebMarAprMayJunJul AugSep
*2008 third quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Feb. 2009
40% of all jobsin Box Elder Countyare in Manufacturing
Cache County Employment
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Cache County Employment Growth Rates
-3.5%
-1.5%
0.5%
2.5%
4.5%
6.5%
00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Cache County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
Jan-07
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-08
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
*2008 third quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Feb. 2009
21% of all jobsin Cache County
are in Manufacturing
Rich County Employment
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Rich County Employment Growth Rates
-19.0%
-9.0%
1.0%
11.0%
21.0%
31.0%
00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Unemployment
State, Box Elder, Cache, and Rich Unemployment Rates
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan2001
Apr Jul Oct Jan2002
Apr Jul Oct Jan2003
Apr Jul Oct Jan2004
Apr Jul Oct Jan2005
Apr Jul Oct Jan2006
Apr Jul Oct Jan2007
Apr Jul Oct Jan2008
Apr Jul Nov
Box ElderCache
State
•Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
December 2008 Box Elder 5.2% Cache 3.2% Rich 2.9% Utah 4.3% U.S. 7.2%
Rich
Bear River Counties Initial Unemployment Claims
352
288
231207 192 209
253
186 179210
380
756 738
188
123
81100
131
203
275
120 129
196
365
512 505
Jan-08
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-09
Box Elder Cache
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
$$$$ Wages $$$$
2007 Average Monthly Wage by County
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
$1,792$1,899
$1,977$2,006
$2,076
$2,134$2,145
$2,250$2,308$2,330$2,340$2,401
$2,490$2,502
$2,611$2,668$2,709$2,721$2,765$2,809$2,858
$2,951$3,043$3,088
$3,298$3,310$3,377
$2,089
Piute Rich
Sanpete Garfield Wayne
Kane Iron
Grand Cache
Beaver Sevier
San Juan Washington
Morgan Daggett
Wasatch Millard Weber
Utah Summit Carbon
Juab Davis
State Tooele
Duchesne Emery
Box Elder Salt Lake
Uintah
% Change in Average Monthly Wage 2006-2007
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
0.2%1.5%
2.3%3.0%
3.6%3.7%3.7%3.8%
4.1%4.3%4.5%4.7%
5.0%5.2%5.3%
5.6%5.8%6.0%
6.5%7.3%7.4%7.6%
8.2%9.2%
10.1%10.5%
12.7%12.9%
14.7%
3.2%
Emery Piute
Wayne Tooele Beaver
Davis Weber
Washington Iron
Cache Millard Sevier
Carbon Grand
Garfield Morgan
State Utah
Salt Lake Box Elder
Sanpete Summit
Kane Uintah
Daggett San Juan
Rich Wasatch
Juab Duchesne
Average Monthly Wage – 2007
Because of the concentration of manufacturing in Box Elder, it ranks in the top 5 in Utah counties for wages, $3,375 ($19.47/hr). State wages at $3,044 ($17.56/hr) are above the Cache average $2,250 ($12.98/hr) and Rich
$1,899 ($10.96/hr).0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Average Wage
State
BoxElder
Cache
Rich
$3,044 $3,375
$2,250
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
$1,899
Bear River’s County Average Monthly Wage, 2007
3,258
1,919
863
2,261
1,238
2,506
5,110
2,742
2,455
2,690
1,856
922
2,213
2,258
2,488
1,956
1,868
2,973
2,228
1,631
2,380
1,686
1,085
2,371
2,033
1,940
0
1,673
3,349
2,217
2,198
2,103
2,151
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Government
Other Services
Leisure Hospitality
Educ. & Health Serv
Prof. Bus. Serv
Finance
Information
Trad Transp Util
Manuf.
Construction
Mining
RichCacheBox Elder
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Average WageBox Elder $3,375Cache $2,250Rich $1,899
Construction
Bear River Counties Construction Dwelling Permits
692
774
614
831
1,284
1,008
899 910
414
47 19 30 24 3976 47 43 37
337254 269
214262
511461 453
249
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 toQtr 3
Box Elder Cache Rich
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
Bear River Counties Construction Permit Values (Millions of $)
126 131 127
167
197 193
249239
112
5 3 5 6 1024
13 14 10
40 4134 37 40
92
197
160
74
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 toQtr 3
Box Elder Cache Rich
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
Bear River Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept 2007 to Jan-Sept 2008
-43.9%
-34.2%
0.0%
-23.8%
-52.9%
-73.9%
-57.7%
-35.5%
Box Elder Cache Rich State
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
Dwelling Permits
Total Const.Valuation
Outlook
Jobs
State OutlookContinued slowing to 0.2% in 2008 and going negative –2.3%
in 2009. Growth around –0.4% in 2010.
Box ElderSliding to 0.0 % job growth in 2008. Slipping to
-2.0% to –2.5 in 2009. Manufacturing the key.
CacheJob growth of 1.5 to 2.0% for 2008. Growth negative in 2009
at about –1.0% to –2.0% in 2009. Manufacturing job losses may continue.
Rich Very slow growth, if any. Watch Construction.
UnemploymentIncreasing in all counties.
Box Elder unemployment at 4.0% to 5.0% in 2009Cache joblessness in the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2009Rich unemployment 2.0% to 3.0% in 2009
Wages – upward pressure subsiding as economy slows.
SpendingSlow and cautious. As soon as consumers “perceive” better timesthey will spend. Issues of income growth, job security, and
inflation(energy prices).
The Sun will come up tomorrow.
We will get through this but it will take time.
This recession is like no other in our history.
Don’t panic, be flexible.
Businesses find new ways of dealing with the economic environment, out of the box.
John MathewsNorthern Regional Economist
Department of Workforce Services(jobs.utah.gov)
[email protected](801) 526-9467
Powerpoint slide show at:http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html
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