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« EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN & AUSTERITY MEASURES WEAKEN BELGIUM’S
ECONOMIC RECOVERY »
December 2014
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
BELGIAN ECONOMY GREW SLIGHTLY IN 3TH QUARTER* +0,3%
INTERIOUR DEMAND SUPPORTS GROWING ACTIVITY
INCREASING ADDED VALUE
* Q3 ‘14/Q3 ‘12 = +0,9% | Source: NBB
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
1.4%
2.6%
2.6%
Public Investment in fixed-assets
Employment
Supply Change
Added Value - Construction
Added Value - Services
GDP
Public Consumption
Private Consumption
Added Value - Industry
Interior Demand
Export
Import
Investment in Housing
Corporate Investment in fixed-assets
Q3 Components GDP-growth (Q/Q-1)
Q2 Components GDP-growth (Q/Q-1)
Q1 Components GDP-growth (Q/Q-1)
+ -DECREASING PUBLIC INVESTMENT & CONSUMPTION
NEGATIVE TRADE BALANCE DESPITE GROWING EXPORT
Source: NBB
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1 |
20
07
3 |
20
07
5 |
20
07
7 |
20
07
9 |
20
07
11
| 2
00
7
1 |
20
08
3 |
20
08
5 |
20
08
7 |
20
08
9 |
20
08
11
| 2
00
8
1 |
20
09
3 |
20
09
5 |
20
09
7 |
20
09
9 |
20
09
11
| 2
00
9
1 |
20
10
3 |
20
10
5 |
20
10
7 |
20
10
9 |
20
10
11
| 2
01
0
1 |
20
11
3 |
20
11
5 |
20
11
7 |
20
11
9 |
20
11
11
| 2
01
1
1 |
20
12
3 |
20
12
5 |
20
12
7 |
20
12
9 |
20
12
11
| 2
01
2
1 |
20
13
3 |
20
13
5 |
20
13
7 |
20
13
9 |
20
13
11
| 2
01
3
1 |
20
14
3 |
20
14
5 |
20
14
7 |
20
14
13
| 2
01
3
15
| 2
01
3
Consumentenvertrouwen | La confiance des consommateurs | Consumer Confidence
Ondernemersvertrouwen | La confiance des chefs d'entreprise | Business Confidence
INCREASING BUSINESS CONFIDENCEVS DECREASING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
93,69896,522
93,387
84,830
97,27694,202
90,151
75,364
83,092
76,567
71,193
65,847
86,48189,14288,622
84,011
104,666108,692
100,562
88,247
98,54595,223
84,96482,767
86,83485,42983,414
86,843
93,96593,76889,794
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
BrusselsWalloniaFlanders
STRONG RISE OF JOB OFFERS IN FLANDERS(PLACED IN PES)
+1,2%-2,6%
+10,2%
Belgium: +7,6%
Q/Q
-4
0.6
%
0.4
%
0.3
%
0.1
%
-0.3
%
-0.2
%
-0.2
%
0.1
%
0.2
%
0.4
%
0.4
%
0.4
%
0.4
%
0.4
%
0.2
%
0.1
%
0.1
%
0.0
%
-0.1
%
-0.1
%
-0.1
%
-0.1
%
0.1
%
0.0
%
0.1
%
0.2
%
0.1%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
SMALL INCREASE OF EMPLOYMENTQ/Q-1
NBB
Employment at record high: 4,719 million people at work in Belgium
Employment and population grow at a same pace
MORE JOBS THEN EVER
PERSISTING DEFLATION IN EARLY 2015FAR BELOW THE 2% ECB-TARGET
Low inflation (based on consumption-index)
2014(e): +0,3%
2015(e): +0,3%
Impact on wages?
When will the pivotal index be crossed?
July 2015(e) = estimate
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
Apr-
14
May-1
4
Jun-1
4
Jul-
14
Aug-1
4
Sep-1
4
Oct-
14
Nov-1
4
Dec-1
4
Jan-1
5
Feb-1
5
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Consumption Index
Health-index
Source: NBB
DOWNWARD REVISED OUTLOOK FOR BELGIUM
Y2Y 2014 2015 2016
GDP +1,0% +0,9% +1,4%
Inflation 0,6% 0,8% 1,2%
Employment +18.000 +19.300 +25.200
Unemployment rate 8,5% 8,8% 8,7%
Economic activity in 2014 slowed down faster than expected due to dropback of the Europeaneconomies2015:
Internal demand should stabilizeAbsence of wage indexation will probably weigh on private consumptionIncreasing profits should support a rise in corporate investmentPublic austerity measures will lower public consumption
Inflation will stay low due toV.A.T. cuts on energyMeasures with lowering effects on the cost of labour
TAW = Temporary Agency Work
THE FEDERGON TAW-INDEX INCREASES SLOWLY
150.0
170.0
190.0
210.0
230.0
250.0
270.0
290.0
01-0
7
03-0
7
05-0
7
07-0
7
09-0
7
11-0
7
01-0
8
03-0
8
05-0
8
07-0
8
09-0
8
11-0
8
01-0
9
03-0
9
05-0
9
07-0
9
09-0
9
11-0
9
01-1
0
03-1
0
05-1
0
07-1
0
09-1
0
11-1
0
01-1
1
03-1
1
05-1
1
07-1
1
09-1
1
11-1
1
01-1
2
03-1
2
05-1
2
07-1
2
09-1
2
11-1
2
01-1
3
03-1
3
05-1
3
07-1
3
09-1
3
11-1
3
01-1
4
03-1
4
05-1
4
07-1
4
09-1
4
TEMPORARY AGENCY WORK
GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +7,18%+8,9%
+4,9%
+32,6%
* Total Blue collar White collar
Flanders +7,2% +8,1% +5,9%
Wallonia +7,5% +10,0% +3,5%
Brussels +6,1% +16,8% +2,7%
* Hours worked
SERVICES TO INDIVIDUALS
GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +3,43%* Federgon Market
Belgium +3,43% -0,22%
Flanders +2,96% 0,83%
Wallonia +4,06% -2,98%
Brussels +4,21% 0,04%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Market Q/Q-4
* Hours worked
PROJECTSOURCING
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +5,2%Engineering +3,0%
Finance +3,2%
ICT -1,3%
Office +5,6%
Logistics, Medical, Science, Legal, HR +20,1%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Hours worked
INTERIM MANAGEMENT
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +12,0%General +24,1%
HR +5,2%
Logistics & Production -30,2%
Finance & Legal +27,0%
ICT +27,9%
Other -30,7%
6.50% 7.20% 1.20%
-2.80%-9.80% -9.20%
-6.70%
7.60%
11.60%14.90%
17.40%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Missions
OUTPLACEMENT
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = -6,5%
Individual dismissal +1,9%
Collectif dismissal -10,5%
Multiple dismissal -38,5%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Number accompaniments
RECRUITMENT, SEARCH & SELECTION
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +0,03%
Recruitment & Selection -1,8%
Evaluation & Assessment -0,3%
Coaching +5,9%
HR Consultancy +16,4%
-5.7%-6.7%
-10.8%
-20.9%
-16.1%
-12.9%-14.3%
-1.2% -2.9%
0.7% 2.6%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Turnover
TRAINING
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = -1,0%
16.0%
35.3%34.2%
4.5%1.8%
-20.6%
-5.4%
-19.0%
-14.6%-13.8%-11.5%
-1.5%-0.2%
7.5%
-1.3%-3.0%
-1.4%-2.6%
-8.1%
3.4%
-6.1%
-1.4%-2.6%-3.9%-7.0%
8.6%
-5.2%
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q/Q-4
* Turnover
RESEARCH & ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT
PAUL VERSCHUEREN / THIBAUT PRINCEN
Havenlaan 86c bte 302 - 1000 BrusselAvenue du Port 86c bte 302 - 1000 BruxellesTel: 02/203 38 03 Fax: 02/203 42 68
CONTACT