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Dollar Finds Support, S&P 500 Still Struggling with 1600 Mark
Pound Climbs on a Continued Rise in UK PMI for Services
European Commission Lowers the Euro-zone Growth Estimate
Euro Slammed by ECB Rate Cut, Threats for More
The European Central Bank (ECB) met economists’ expectations for a 25 basis point benchmark rate cut, but they would also go further in their effort to provide support to the region’s strained economy and financial system. Alone, lowering the key lending rate to 0.50 percent does little to further improve the Eurozone’s health as there are clear issues with transmitting the benefits of previous policy moves to periphery economies (like Greece, Cyprus, Spain, etc) much less individuals and smaller businesses. Therefore, had the central bank simple taken this step, the euro may not have dropped. Yet, tumble it did with EURUSD moving back to 1.3050 and EURGBP bouncing at 0.8400. To further show commitment, ECB President Draghi also lowered the marginal lending rate 50 bps to 1.00 percent, noted that the growth outlook was tipped to the ‘downside’ and they would remain open to negative rates on deposits.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3062 tgs 1.3042/1.3022
sl 1.3092
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.30
tgt 98.50/98.70 SL 98.00
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5515 Tgt 1.5495/1.5475
SL 1.5545
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3066 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.3137 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.3062 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.3102 MACD =>.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 51(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 97.94 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARDS
HIGH: 98.25 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 97.94 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 98.03 MACD =>.12(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 57(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5534 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.5571 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.5520 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.5553 MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 58(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8411 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS
HIGH: 00.8449 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 00.8410 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 00.8423 MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 46(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.2240 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 82.2490 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 81.9170 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 81.9650 MACD =>.0643(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 52(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun Apr 28
23:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.3%
0.3%
23:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (APR)
Low 0.2%
0.0%
23:01
GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (APR)
Low 27
20
Mon
Apr 29
CNY Leading Index (MAR)
Medium
100.23
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (APR)
Medium -0.93 -0.91 -0.75
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (APR F)
Medium -22.3 -22.3 -22.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (APR)
Low 88.6 89.3 90.1
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (APR)
Low -13.8 -13.5 -12.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (APR)
Low -11.1 -7.1 -7.0
09:00
EUR Italy to Sell 5 and 10-Year Bonds
Low
10:30
EUR EU's Task Force for Greece Releases Quarterly Report
Medium
12:25
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR P)
High 1.1% 1.7% 1.8%
12:25
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR P)
High 1.2% 1.4% 1.4%
12:25
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR P)
Medium -0.5% -0.1% 0.4%
12:25
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR P)
Medium -0.5% -0.2% 0.5%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (MAR)
High 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (MAR)
Medium 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
12:30
USD Personal Income (MAR)
Medium 0.2% 0.4% 1.1%
12:30
USD Personal Spending (MAR)
Medium 0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (MAR)
Low -0.1% -0.1% 0.4%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (MAR)
Low 1.0% 1.0% 1.3%
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAR)
Medium 5.8% 6.1% 4.3%
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low 1.5% 1.0% -1.0%
14:30
USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (APR)
Low -15.6 5.0 7.4
22:45
NZD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)
Low -9.1% 2.0% 4.4%
23:01
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR)
Medium -27 -26 -26
23:30
JPY Household Spending (YoY) (MAR)
Medium 5.2% 1.6% 0.8%
23:30
JPY Jobless Rate (MAR)
Medium 4.1% 4.2% 4.3%
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR P)
Medium -7.3% -7.2% -10.5%
23:50
JPY Large Retailers' Sales (MAR)
Medium 2.4% 1.8% -3.7%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -0.3% 0.4% -2.2%
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR P)
Low 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low -1.4% -0.8% 1.7%
Tue
Apr 30 01:00
NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (APR)
Medium 32.3
34.6
01:00
NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (APR)
Low 30.3
32.4
01:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAR)
Medium 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
01:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAR)
Medium 3.2% 3.2% 3.4%
03:00
NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAR)
Low 7.0%
6.6%
04:00
JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAR)
Low -16.4%
-15.1%
05:00
JPY Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)
Medium 0.904M 0.890M 0.944M
05:00
JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)
Medium 7.3% 6.0% 3.0%
05:00
JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)
Low -3.4%
16.3%
06:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)
Medium 6.2 5.9 6.0
06:00
EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -2.8% -1.2% -2.6%
06:00
EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low -0.3% -0.3% -0.6%
07:00
EUR Cyprus Parliament Vote on Bailout Deal
Medium
07:00
CHF SNB Releases Q1 Currency Holdings
Low
07:55
EUR German Unemployment Change (APR)
High 4K 2K 12K
07:55
EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)
Medium 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
08:00
EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (SA) (MAR P)
Medium 11.5% 11.7% 11.5%
08:30
GBP Net Consumer Credit (MAR)
Medium 0.5B 0.5B 0.5B
08:30
GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)
Medium 0.4B 0.6B 0.8B
08:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR)
Low 4.6% 3.1% 3.2%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR)
Low -0.9%
-0.5%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)
Low 0.3%
0.6%
08:30
GBP Mortgage Approvals (MAR)
Low 53.5K 52.7K 51.9K
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (APR)
High 1.2% 1.6% 1.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR)
High 12.1% 12.1% 12.0%
12:30
CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (FEB)
High 1.7% 1.3% 1.1%
12:30
CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (FEB)
Medium 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
12:30
CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (MAR)
Low 0.1% 0.0% 1.3%
12:30
CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM)
Low -1.7% 0.5% 2.2%
(MAR)
12:30
USD Employment Cost Index (1Q)
Low 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
13:00
USD NAPM-Milwaukee (APR)
Low 48.43 51.50 50.98
13:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Low 1.24% 0.90% 1.00%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (FEB)
Low 9.3% 9.0% 8.1%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (FEB)
Low 146.57 146.43 146.14
13:45
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (APR)
Medium 49.0 52.5 52.4
14:00
USD Consumer Confidence (APR)
High 68.1 61.0 61.9
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)
Medium 36.7
44.4
Wed May 1
00:00
AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (APR)
Low -0.5%
1.3%
01:00
CNY Manufacturing PMI (APR)
High 50.6 50.7 50.9
01:00
AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Medium 4.2%
-5.3%
01:30
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -0.6% -1.2% -0.8%
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
-15.6%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.3% 0.8%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.3% 0.0%
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (APR)
Low
-7.5%
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (APR)
Low
87.9
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR)
Medium
48.5 48.3
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 26)
Low
0.2%
12:15
USD ADP Employment Change (APR)
Medium
150K 158K
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Final (APR)
Low
52.0
14:00
USD ISM Manufacturing (APR)
High
50.6 51.3
14:00
USD Construction Spending (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.6% 1.2%
14:00
USD ISM Prices Paid (APR)
Medium
52.6 54.5
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (ARP 26)
Low
35K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (ARP 26)
Low
1100K 947K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (ARP 26)
Low
250K 97K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (ARP 26)
Low
-900K -3928K
18:00
USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (MAY 1)
High
0.25% 0.25%
18:00
LIVE
USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (MAY 1)
High
21:00
USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (APR)
Low
12.00M 12.00M
21:00
USD Total Vehicle Sales (APR)
Low
15.22M 15.22M
23:50
JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (APR)
Low
19.8%
Thu
May 2
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR)
Low
1.3%
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2%
JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)
Low
$1254.4B
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (APR)
Low
7.4%
01:30
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (MAR)
Low
1.0% 3.1%
01:30
AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (MAR)
Low
13.6% 12.8%
01:30
AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
4.5% -2.4%
01:30
AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
-0.5% 0.3%
01:45
CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (APR)
Medium
50.6 51.6
07:30
CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (APR)
Medium
49.0 48.3
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR)
Medium
45.0 44.5
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F)
Medium
44.4 44.4
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F)
Medium
47.9 47.9
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F)
Medium
46.5 46.5
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (APR)
Medium
48.0 47.2
11:30
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (APR)
Low
30.0%
11:30
USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAY)
Low
50.3
11:45
LIVE
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAY 2)
High
0.50% 0.75%
11:45
EUR European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate (MAY 2)
Medium
0.0% 0.0%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (ARP 26)
Medium
345K 339K
12:30
USD Trade Balance (MAR)
Medium
-$42.3B -$43.0B
12:30
CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (MAR)
Low
-0.70B -1.02B
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (APR 20)
Low
3030K 3000K
12:30
USD Non-Farm Productivity (1Q P)
Low
1.0% -1.9%
12:30
USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q P)
Low
0.7% 4.6%
13:45
USD ISM New York (APR)
Low
51.2
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (ARP 26)
Low
30.0
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (APR)
Medium
49.6
Fri
May 3 01:00
CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (APR)
Medium
55.6
01:30
AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
0.2%
01:30
AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (1Q)
Medium
1.0%
06:00
CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (1Q)
Medium
1.11
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR)
Medium
52.4 52.4
08:30
GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (APR)
Low
$202M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
High
0.6% 1.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
-0.2% 0.2%
12:30
LIVE
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (APR)
High
150K 88K
12:30
USD Unemployment Rate (APR)
High
7.6% 7.6%
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.2% 0.0%
12:30
USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.9% 1.8%
12:30
USD Change in Private Payrolls (APR)
Medium
160K 95K
12:30
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (APR)
Low
34.6 34.6
12:30
USD Change in Household Employment (APR)
Low
-206
12:30
USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (APR)
Low
5K -3K
12:30
USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (APR)
Low
12:30
USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (APR)
Low
13.8%
14:00
USD Factory Orders (MAR)
Medium
-3.0% 3.0%
14:00
USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (APR)
Medium
54.0 54.4
16:45
USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on the Economy in Virginia
Low
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