ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter – AUGUST 2012

2

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 12

Forex 14

Commodities 15

Index Page No.

Contents

Real Estate 16

From the Desk of the CIO…

“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19”

Dear Investor,

Last month saw the pitch for monetary easing build across the board in

India – only to be ultimately ignored by RBI in its monetary policy

announcement towards the end of the month. While a suitably strong case

can be made for as well as against further monetary easing in India owing

to the specific circumstances Indian economy finds itself in currently (vis-à-

vis moderate growth and somewhat uncomfortable inflation), RBI has

chosen to play it safe and focus on inflation first. It is both difficult and

futile to second-guess how RBI might be thinking about growth vs inflation.

However, it suffices to notice that the explicit message in its

communication was clearly inflation focused. This hence points to the

unlikelihood of repo rate reduction in the next review as well, unless fuel

and food prices cool off considerably.

Despite the hopes of monetary easing, most market participants in Indian

equity markets as well as debt markets were quite prepared for RBI’s

stance and announcement, thus reacting little to the announcement when

it came. We expect that the future market movement in debt and equity

markets will be determined more by domestic policy actions and

developments in Euro-zone. Another “swing” factor could be the renewed

optimism regarding quantitative easing (QE-3) by the US Federal Reserve

that is getting built globally. This is purportedly because of continued

sluggishness of economic growth in the US. However, owing to the limited

perceived success of QE-1 and QE-2 though, the opinion is quite divided

over whether the Fed will actually go for QE-3 in the near future. We

believe that QE-1

and QE-2 came at the time of much worse economic outlook in the US.

They were both used to revive credit growth in the wake of the financial

crisis which led to a sudden drop in credit availability because of extreme

risk aversion amongst private sector banks based on their massive write-

offs through the crisis. Considering the relatively better state of bank

balance sheets now and much better availability of credit in general than

that through the crisis months, quantitative easing at this point will

probably only serve to bid up the prices of risk assets. It might not have a

major impact on the real economy. Given this, the Fed may choose to keep

the QE option for a later and worse state if it comes about.

Through turbulent but range-bound months such as those of CY12 till now,

a useful approach to managing investments is to rebalance the portfolio

regularly to book profits in the “winning” ideas/stocks/assets and to

increase exposure in “losing” ones – insofar as one believes that both of

them are sound investments to start with and can be held for the long term

if necessary. This sort of regular rebalance translates the nearly tautological

and thus meaningless dictum of buy-low and sell-high into a disciplined

activity with some benefit. This is because one buys as asset when it goes

down in value and sells another one that goes up in value – albeit in

incremental quantities. If the overall range-bound but volatile behavior of

various assets continues through the year, one is often better off in this

approach than purely holding on to all the investments as they were at the

beginning of the year. This applies to the overall portfolio of various

instruments as it does to a purely equity stocks portfolio.

4

As on 31st July 2012

Change over last month

Change over last year

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 17236 (1.1%) (5.3%)

S&P Nifty 5229 (0.9%) (4.6%)

S&P 500 1379 1.3% 6.7%

Nikkei 225 8695 (3.5%) (11.6%)

Debt Markets

10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.25% 7 bps (20 bps)

Call Markets 8.03% 21 bps 13 bps

Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps (25 bps)

Commodity Markets

RICI Index 3637 5.8% (9.8%)

Gold (`/10gm) 29905 1.1% 28.8%

Crude Oil ($/bbl) 105.93 12.5% (8.6%)

Forex

Markets

Rupee/Dollar 55.81 0.9% (20.9%)

Yen/Dollar 78.3 1.6% (0.6%)

Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets

10 yr Gsec

Gold

• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

`/$ `/$

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225

6.80

7.30

7.80

8.30

8.80

9.30

5

US

Europe

Japan

Emerging economies

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June’12, improved slightly in

July’12. The Index now stands at 65.9 (1985=100), up from 62.7 in June’12.

• The US unemployment rate increased to 8.3% in month of July, slightly higher than 8.2% in June. Gross

domestic product expanded at a 1.5% annual rate between April and June, the weakest pace of growth

since the third quarter of 2011.

• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.0 in July (a 37-month low), down

from 45.1 in June. The PMI has now signalled contraction for 12 consecutive months.

• The European Central Bank held its main interest rate at a record low of 0.75% in July, waiting to see

whether inflation and the euro zone economy slow further before deciding on any fresh cut in borrowing

costs.

Economy Update - Global

• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 47.9 in July, down from 49.9 in June. Japanese

manufacturing production declined for a second successive month in July, and at an accelerated rate.

• The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.3% in June declining for the second

straight month, but overall the economy continues to struggle after last year's disaster and as demand

from debt-laden Europe weakens.

• China’s HSBC PMI inched higher to 49.3 in July from 48.2 in June signalling only a marginal deterioration

in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. Moreover, the month-on-month increase in the

index was the largest in 21 months. The benchmark one-year lending rate was cut by 31 basis points to

6% and the one-year deposit rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 3%.

• India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a lower-than-expected 7.25% in June from a year earlier, mainly

driven by higher food prices.

6

Economy Outlook - Domestic

• India's economic growth fell below the psychologically

significant 6% level for the first time in last 3 years, signalling

that country’s slowdown is deepening and affecting all sectors

of the economy. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture

sectors have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.3% as

compared to 7.8% growth a year earlier.

• The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external

demand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest rates, high

inflation, a stagnant government and declining business

confidence. With the economy battling multiple

macroeconomic problems, the Reserve Bank of India is under

pressure to both curtail inflation and reduce key interest rates

to boost the investment climate in the economy.

GDP growth

• The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) expanded by a low 2.4% in

May 2012 relative to the 6.2% growth in May 2011, due to

contraction in capital goods and mining output, coupled with poor

show by manufacturing sector. The April’12 IIP has been revised

lower to -0.9% from earlier estimate of 0.1%.

• Several use-based industries displayed a decline in growth in May

2012 relative to May 2011, including capital goods (to -7.7% from

6.2%), consumer non-durables (to 0.1% from 9.0%) and basic goods

(to 4.1% from 7.5%). However, a faster pace of growth was

recorded in May 2012 relative to the same month in 2011 by

consumer durables (to 9.3% from 5.1%) and intermediate goods (to

2.7% from 0.1%).

• For the first two months of the current fiscal, April-May, the

industrial growth is sharply lower at 0.8%, compared to 5.7% in the

year-ago period.

IIP

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Apr 11

May 11

Jun 11

Jul 11

Aug 11

Sep 11

Oct 11

Nov 11

Dec 11

Jan 12

Feb 12

Mar 12

Apr 12

May 12

8.1 8.4 8.3

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.3

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4)

Economic Outlook - Domestic

As on 29th June 2012, Bank credits grew by 16.5% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 542 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in June 2011 (i.e. 21.5%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 13.5%, viz-a viz a growth of 20.4% in June 2011.

Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in short-term deposits and advances, post that there has been a decline in both the months.

On 31st July 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the key policy rates unchanged and cut the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) by 100 bps to 23%, as the primary focus of policy remained on inflation control in order to secure a sustainable growth path over the medium-term

India's wholesale price index (WPI), the main inflation gauge, rose to a lower-than-expected annual 7.25% in June, its slowest rate since January, helped by moderation in fuel prices, yet remained above the central bank's comfort level. The annual rate of inflation (WPI) stood at 7.55% in May’12. WPI inflation was 9.44% in June’11. The annual reading for April was upwardly revised to 7.5% from 7.23%

Food inflation rose to 10.81 percent from 10.74%. Fuel and power prices rose at a slower pace of 10.27% after increasing 11.53% in May. Manufactured goods inflation remained at 5%. Core inflation remained unchanged from the May’12 levels of 4.85%

India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) declined slightly to 10.02% in June 2012 -- the sixth month of such a measure in the country of retail prices -- as compared to 10.36% in the previous month. The base effect of inflation in housing contributed to the fall in inflation.

Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs

7 * End of period figures

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

Wholesale Price Index

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

23.0%

25.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits

8

Equity Outlook

Global equity market remained optimistic in July on the back of expectations about monetary easing from European central bank and

US Fed. Indian equity markets ended on a flat note with Markets waiting for next set of economic reform measures to be announced

by the central government. We have a new finance minister Mr. Chidambaram and expectations are running high about action on

Direct tax code, GST and aviation and retail reforms.

Foreign investors have put in 10.5 billion dollars in Indian Equity markets so far this calendar year. After a very turbulent CY11 in which

nifty corrected 24%, Indian equity markets have bounced back this year with a 13% return on CYTD basis. In last six months, sectors

like consumer, healthcare and private sector banking have done quite well with robust earnings growth and double digit stock price

gains. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic growth.

13.10%

-24.60%

17.90%

-30.00%

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

YTD CY11 CY10

Nifty Returns

Equity Outlook

RBI announced the Quarterly monetary policy review on 31st July. It made no changes to policy rates in this review. RBI has

taken adequate care of liquidity deficit first through 125bps cut in CRR last quarter and now with the SLR cut of 1%. The

concerns remain more about the overall growth situation in the country with RBI downgrading growth target for FY13 from 7.3%

to 6.5%. With a weak monsoon, agricultural growth is expected to slip and industrial output shows little signs of picking up.

However, RBI has decided to focus more on managing inflationary risks as of now. They have raised the baseline projection of

WPI based inflation to 7% for March, 2013 as against the earlier projection of 6.50%. While we agree with RBI about suppressed

inflation in India due to incomplete pass through of fuel and power costs, the political environment is not conducive to fuel and

power price hikes and as such the headline inflationary numbers are expected to stay low.

The Q1FY13 earnings have been on expected lines so far. FMCG & healthcare spaces have announced strong results on the back

of commodity prices easing and rupee depreciation respectively. Private sector banks have also delivered good results with

stable earnings and peaking out of NPAs. Markets are currently trading at cheap valuations and we believe cautiousness in the

near term should be used to accumulate quality stocks with a slightly longer-term view

10

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

Healthcare Overweight

We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in

generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the

developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian

pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and

CRAMS space

BFSI Overweight

The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to

increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better

management quality and higher balance sheet discipline

FMCG Overweight

We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as

the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable

incomes.

Automobiles Overweight

Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. The rate cuts have

already started to trickle down. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles

segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.

Telecom Neutral

The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability

levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly

and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.

11

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

Cement Neutral Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong

view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.

E&C Neutral

The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector.

Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this

space.

Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in

earnings and decent return on capital.

Energy Underweight We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying

economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.

Metals Underweight Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth

in developed parts of the world.

IT/ITES Underweight With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow

down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.

12

Debt Outlook

• The New 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield rose by 7 bps in July’12 to close at 8.25%.

• RBI reduced the SLR (the portion of bank deposits held in treasury bills) to 23 percent from 24 percent, in its bid to

increase liquidity to support credit growth. The move is expected to release around Rs 60,000 crore in the system. This

change will be effective from 11th August 2012.

• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread marginally increased to 102 Bps (31st July 2012) from 96 bps (29th

June 2012). The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.27% on 31st July 2012.

10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve

(%)

(%)

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

0.0

0

.8

1.6

2

.4

3.2

4

.0

4.7

5

.5

6.3

7

.1

7.9

8

.7

9.5

1

0.2

1

1.0

1

1.8

1

2.6

1

3.4

1

4.2

1

5.0

1

5.7

1

6.5

1

7.3

1

8.1

1

8.9

1

9.7

6.80

7.30

7.80

8.30

8.80

9.30

Debt Strategy

Outlook Category Details

Long Tenure Debt

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, and signals passive cuts in near future, we would recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24 months in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the same. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.

Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.

13

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.

Short Tenure Debt

Credit

14

Forex

• INR has appreciated against USD, GBP & Euro whereas it witnessed a depreciation against Japanese Yen. INR appreciated by 0.9%, in July (Appreciated by 0.2% in June 2012) against the US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has depreciated by 4.5%

• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month with an appreciation.

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been taking a series of steps to rein in the currency’s loss, including curbing banks’ abilities to speculate in the currency market since last two months. The central bank sold at least $20 billion to stabilize the currency.

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data

• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.

• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.

-10000

40000

90000

140000

FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)

Capital Account Balance

• Exports during June, 2012 were valued at US $25.06 bn which was 5.45% lower than the level of US $ 26.51 bn during June, 2011. Imports during June, 2012 were valued at US $35.37 bn representing a negative growth of 13.46% over the level of imports valued at US $40.87 bn in June, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $10.03 bn.

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

USD GBP EURO YEN

15

Commodities

Precious

Metals

Oil & Gas

The sharp rise in oil prices following recent correction was a cause for concern. The Brent crude oil is currently trading above the $100 mark and may sustain at these levels for some time. With global policy makers go easy on the monetary policy, oil is likely to stay steady. Expect oil prices to remain firm.

Crude

Gold Gold prices continue to remain stable following Fed’s extension of operation twist and a positive outcome of EU summit. Any short term measures from either US or EU central banks is positive for gold as it improves the money circulation. The continuing ultra low fed fund rates and possibility of interest rate reduction from the ECB; and Fed willingness to other measures down the road to boost the economy shall only benefit gold. Expect gold prices to remain firm with a positive bias.

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

Real Estate Outlook - I

16

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Residential

With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence

coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and

shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have

seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user

transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,

Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2

quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,

the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these

markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a

good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well

under 1500 sqft)

Prices surged since last quarter, factors being

largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring

first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,

Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh

highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft

range

Commercial/IT

Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends

getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai

still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small

office spaces from investors

Very less benchmarks available but the rents are

growing 8-10% every year for commercial

properties in Tier-II cities

Real Estate Outlook - II

17

Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Retail

Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have

been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well

awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major

cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied

and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in

prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up

of FDI.

Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated

beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a

re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial

offices, call centers, super-market etc

Land

30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming

expensive month on month. Interest from investors has

drawn lot of attention in well connected areas.

Land has given better appreciation in these markets than

Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land

property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming

areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land

valuable

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We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-S Service Promise” :

• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products

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Honest, unbiased advise

18

A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.

Pedigreed Senior Management Team

19

Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group

companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the

accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on

their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any

information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of

Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to

time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that

they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other

securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further

restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their

respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new

Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments

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20

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