2030 French FinTech Scenarios

2030 French

FinTech Scenarios To what extent disruptive financial

technologies could impact the

French banking sector?

Nicolas AUCONIE 29/04/2016

2030 French FinTech Scenarios

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ANGLIA RUSKIN UNIVERSITY

Dissertation Declaration

Title of Award

BSc (Hons) Business Administration

Date

Friday, April 29, 2016

SID Number

1519049

Name of Supervisor

Elisa Alt

Title of Dissertation

2030 French Fintech Scenarios: To what extent financial disruptive

technologies could impact the French Banking Sector?

Word count

11154

DECLARATION: I declare that the following work is my own and that the material contained herein

has not been substantially used in any other submission for an academic award.

Signed: Date: 29/04/2016


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Abstract

Financial Technologies are about to transform the way we bank, and they have just begun. Thirty

years ago, the advent of communication technologies has revolutionized capitals markets and

merely Finance. Financial products’ increased accessibility has made markets more liquid than ever,

thus increasing trade, growth and development. Since then, human have created technologies which

still was sketched in Fictions books few decades ago. Giant calculators, Internet, Nano-technologies

and micro-computing are today about to change our entire world. Finance is not left aside, quite the

contrary; it is actually deeply concerned by these technologies which progress exponentially and

create opportunities until then unimaginable. Financial technologies’ companies, called FinTech

embody this revolution’ outlooks. Global investments inside those start-ups have doubled from 12

billion in 2014 to 22 billion in 2015. They had just tripled from their 2013’s level (4 billion) and this

trend may keep going yet a while. The last revolution had allowed bank to bank better. Instead, this

one should allow people to bank, but without bank. That the main point of this revolution, it is

disruptive. In this paper, we are going to assess potential threats that the FinTech trend could have

upon traditional French Banks; How French could perceive this change, how FinTech could grow and

how banks could cope.

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Table

Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 2

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 4

Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 6

Introduction to methodology ............................................................................................................. 6

Literature Review’s methodology: How academically identify key ideas .......................................... 6

What is Scenario Planning, how we use it? ........................................................................................ 6

How we have proceeded to correctly assess main trends?................................................................ 8

1) We have ensured to correctly assess key macro-environmental factors concerning the

French Financial services industry. ................................................................................................. 8

2) We have ensured to learn enough, in order to globally appreciate trends and ways they

could drive the future. .................................................................................................................... 8

3) We have looked forward current behaviors of financial entities to extract the core points

of our scenarios and strengthen our Drivers. ............................................................................... 10

Literature review ....................................................................................................................... 12

Introduction to the literature ........................................................................................................... 12

Why literature has suggested the Scenario Method the more suitable? ......................................... 12

How Literature has shaped our scenario planning? ......................................................................... 14

1) Research Horizon: What scope for a long term exponential trend? .................................... 14

2) Driver prospection: How a relevant literature has suggested ways to answer? .................. 14

Scenarios Building ...................................................................................................................... 19

Scenario Map .................................................................................................................................... 19

“Digital Banks by 2030” ..................................................................................................................... 20

Why Traditional French Banks could become Digital by 2030? .................................................... 20

“Big Vs Small by 2030” ...................................................................................................................... 23

When former Big become threaten by new Small ....................................................................... 23

“Decline of Banks by 2030” ............................................................................................................... 25

In a fast growing society of low marginal cost, being big is not so well ....................................... 25

“Living in the past by 2030” .............................................................................................................. 27

Do not respond is tantamount to letting die ................................................................................ 27

Conclusion and recommendations .............................................................................................. 29

Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 29

Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 29

Endnote ..................................................................................................................................... 31

Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 32


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Introduction

Financial technologies are mostly founded on few technologic possibilities. Big Data storage allow

individuals to digitally store Tera-octets of information in their pocket. Statistical Analysis’s tools are

increasingly stronger and supported by complex algorithms (IBM Big Data & Analytics Hub Jul. 14,

2015). Internet connects the entire world within a one single network were information could be

instantaneously shared. Finally, the Block Chain technologies highlighted with crypto-currency like the

Bitcoin is turning out being a huge potential solution to disintermediate trades, transactions and

payment with a peer-to-peer proof mechanism, therefore drastically reducing costs. All these

technologies are shaping an environment conducive to improvements in Finance. As we all know since

2008, Finance is not as responsible as it could be. Over securitization and underlying behaviors have

led to a crisis putting down the entire occidental economy (Khan Academy). Causes are known; lack

of transparency within Financial Institutions, lack of regulation from official market authorities and

lack of responsibility in many professionals’ behavior. Basically we know, but the main interested,

banks, hedge funds, even regulators are still rather under acting (Ferguson, 2010).

FinTech companies embody the opportunity to finally shift toward better patterns and therefore

improve what need to be improved in financial mechanisms. There are basically five kinds of FinTech.

The first one is “Payments and Transfers”. Based on high safety crypto-technologies, it allows people

to pay or exchange money directly with their phone or various electronic device everywhere for

almost no-fees. Block Chain technology evoked above is crucial concerning those FinTech’s

development. The second kind of FinTech is “Lending and Financing”. Those are creating web

platforms were Lender can meet borrowers directly to fund a project or lend an amount of money

without intermediary. Crowdfunding and Peer-to-peer lending are the most famous. Private equity or

financial participative communities are also part of this FinTech category. The third one is “Retail

Banking” FinTech. As its name suggests, it consist in the way to bring together every tools necessary

to perform usual banking activities as account management, transfers or daily check-in. The main

advantage of those is that they completely replace traditional bank’s role in the daily banking

activities. The fourth category of Fintech is a bit different. It doesn’t properly concern bank, but

insurance instead. Nicknamed InsurTech, those companies are using especially Big Data and powerful

statistical analysis tools to better frame insurance need around the world and correctly provide

services more diversified, more flexible. Last two FinTech’s categories are quite closed and are both

intended to provide to everybody a mean to place money in order to make capital gains. In the one

hand “Financial Management” FinTech offer flexible and customizable investment strategy, and make

accessible analysts’ or robot-advisor’s services for a derisory cost. In the other hand, “Markets and

Exchanges” FinTech companies provide intuitive and powerful digital Trading platform. Through those

interfaces, anyone can trade stocks, currencies, indices and even derivative products merely via an

internet connection.

Despite all this advantages, FinTech still mostly remain Strat-up and only a few has substantially reach

a market. However, this trend must keep going higher each years and one day or another, will deeply

impact financial activities. This trends takes different extents according to policies and context of the

country where they are located. In Europe, Britain and its FinTech Innovation Lab are first concerning


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FinTech investment (42% of total European investment) followed by Northern Countries, Netherlands

and Germany (Accenture, 2016). France which is yet an historic economic power (Sixth world

economic power) is in sixth position behind Russia in the European FinTech investment ranking. This

weak position illustrates deep French structural issues. Indeed, a complex legislative process,

traditional strong politic cleavage and social-focused policy make disruptive improvement less easy to

spread because disrupting many social acquis. To illustrate, the revision of the Labor code initiated by

Government by the end of 2015 currently face a huge opposition embody by the movement “Nuit

Debout” bringing together each day since one month thousands of citizen across French main town’s

public places. Yet this revision would have been critically useful to the development of French

Fintech’s Start-up which need flexibility, but French have decided the contrary. French Financial

organizations therefore need useful tool to assess a quite uncertain context. This paper is intended to

provide useful recommendations to French Financial organizations through a scenario planning

framing future eventualities by 2030. As we will soon find out, Scenario Planning is especially useful

concerning this assessment. In order to correctly structure our development and step by step expose

the impact FinTech could have on French traditional Banks, we will proceed as described in the

following table.

Methodology This first part will precisely describe the Scenario method we use and

evidence the way we proceeded to collect a relevant literature.

Literature Review This second part will highlight the main involvement of the literature and

should evidence the way it drives our reflection.

Scenarios This third part will expose our scenario key feature and develop them

throughout four different alternatives stories.

Recommendations This final part will provide advices and recommendation based on scenarios

outcomes. Relevant conclusions will be underlines in order to make decision-

processes more efficient.

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Methodology

Introduction to methodology

Into this chapter, we will cover the overall methodology concerning this piece of work, ensuring to

detail the prospective process and the scenarios method to get a clear overview of the process

providing us axes to our answer our research question.

We will first find out the way we develop the literature review method. Then, we will cover the core

analysis method explaining precisely how our research process consists, from the methodological

construction of scenarios founded on Horizon and Drivers to the key features of these last within the

final stories. Furthermore, we will explain our research methodology and the way we use literature to

bring out relevant conclusions and recommendations based on consistent scenarios.

Literature Review’s methodology: How academically identify key ideas

In this work, the literature review takes place voluntarily after the present methodology section. Thus

having in mind in the first place the core methodology of the research and the relevance of the

scenario method concerning this research, we will further be fully able to figure out through the

literature review the core academic implications and outlooks of this last. Therefore, we will use

various outcomes to evidence gaps related to our research question and develop our scenario

strategy.

In a consolidative way of mind, we will explain how relevant references have feed our strategy in order

to academically evidence the fact that this piece of work improve decision makers’ ability to adapt

their mindset in contemporary French financial services companies. With publications whose major

part was published in 2013-2016, we ensure an updated analysis, questioning the more interesting

recent publications about financial technologies and banking development strategies for next

decades. Above all, it shall highlight the weight of main external and internal factors influencing our

work area and consequently facilitate the scenario construction processes by highlighting Drivers and

consistently research horizon.

What is Scenario Planning, how we use it?

Scenario Planning has been introduced in the modern landscape through military decision processes

needed to be enhance and more long-term focused. Hermann KAHN (1922 – 1923) is considered by

most as Father of the way to formally think about the future in order to apply results to present

decision processes. His main studies having concerned the Cold War, he is especially recognized as the

one who study eventual consequences of a nuclear war. Its work has inspired plenty organizations

which has viewed in this possibility to largely-frame thee future, a strong tool to make decisions in the

present. Among the main ones, the Royal Dutch/Shell have used scenarios to create strategies to reach


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Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

A1

B1

A2

B2

A1

B1 Driver 1:

A2

B2

Driver 2:

exogenous markets. According to the Strategic planning management (Exploring Strategy, Pearson

2014), Scenarios are assessing future by a delimited Horizon.

The research horizon is characterized by a range of eventualities depending on what has happened

from today to the horizon. Given that an infinity of things (Events, Behaviors, Trends, …) could

indirectly influence the horizon and consequently create an infinity of alternative futures, the core

work concerning Scenario Planning is isolate those which will Drive our organization the most; the

Two Drivers. Unlike Givens which are factors partially driving it, that we could forecast at the horizon

or with a correlation with another one forecastable at the horizon, Drivers are Uncertain at the

Horizon and non-correlated between themselves.

Once Both Main Drivers are isolated, we need to use them in order to create a scenario map, the

precise one which is going to be our Scenario Building’s foundations. This future compass’s feature is

described in the following graph and, shaped by the crossing of Main Drivers both characterized by

two alternative outcomes basically opposed.

(from ETUI, 2014)

(from ETUI, 2014)


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How we have proceeded to correctly assess main trends?

1) We have ensured to correctly assess key macro-environmental factors concerning the French

Financial services industry.

To correctly assess potential changes that the French Financial services sector (FFSS) could undergo,

it is required to collect various information like qualitative information and quantitative information

which are part of the FFSS macro-environment. In a first step, as said in the last methodology, PESTEL

analysis turned out especially interesting to identify key macro-environmental factors. The Strategic

Planning Book strengthen this position specifying that PESTEL analysis is a useful analysis tool to bring

out phenomenon influencing scenarios. Indeed, by covering Political influences, Economical,

Sociological, Ecological and Legal ones, this analysis ensure analysts to completely asses environment

having in mind the global overview of factors influencing a given organization. Results collected in

PESTEL Analysis therefore aided us to find Givens and identify precisely those which could turn out

being potential main Scenario Drivers. To complete our analysis and figure out the quantitative

characteristics of French Financial Services Sector, we proceed to a data collection about individual

and professional lending, deposit and various financial health key indicators’ related to FFSS. Through

the FBF (French Bank Federation) figures and those from the official web statistic platform of the

“Banque de France”, we get a trustfully, updated and realistic data base providing a solid quantitative

framework for our scenarios.

In the other hand, in a more qualitative reflection, we chose to pick up academic knowledges among

reliable economic Media whose reports and publications are of exceptional quality and that should be

addressed in the next parts. Basically, for conceptual reflections and information’s about hypothetic

societal and global futures, we mainly used the Harvard Business Review, whose publications like “The

other Disruption” (we will talk about it later) are directly related to our question and turned out being

a huge source of inspiration. We have also used a range of publications and reports from the World

Economic Forum, Bloomberg Business, France FinTech, Mckinsey and the Financial Brand. These

sources are classified in the final bibliography and organized by Websites.

2) We have ensured to learn enough, in order to globally appreciate trends and ways they could

drive the future.

If one thing should be ensured to guarantee than scenarios are representative and closely similar to

future which will takes place, it would be a large and global understanding of main trends driving our

general society. Even if these ones do not directly concern our research question, they basically

encompass and shape trends which directly concern it. On top of that, although each system or entity

has its own particularities and characteristics, making them evolving towards various direction, the

global environment surrounding them could affects all of us and drives them toward a specific

direction whereas nothing previously suggested that kind of divergence. This phenomenon is

particularly true in contexts of big changes like Industrial revolutions, wars or various event impacting

society deeply on the long term. That is why in the first place, we especially pay attention to the long

term environment and context. Without a clear appreciation of forces which shaped the past and


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those will shape the future, it’s impossible to correctly forecast one single entity being part of the

future (especially if this entity is as large as Financial Services Companies). We will therefore figure out

how we conduct our research in order to make our mind able to project in relevant hypothetical

futures, supported by solid knowledges of current main trends.

From this will to globally frame current context, I decided to share my large literature around two

books (more complete, more immersive and more rewarding). What mattered the most was to

identify the largest theories and concepts affecting my research question through a nuanced

literature. Because my question is about France, I had not just to find the most relevant books of

general theories about past and future, but had to find those which care the most to French

particularities. I have therefore decided to proceed as follows; To strengthen my knowledges in

general economy and identify current economic context’s involvements for future, I red in the first

place “Capital in the 21 century”, a book from 2013 and yet already famous in academic literature.

The Author, Thomas PIKETTY is a French economist whose past analyses has made him deemed. Its

biggest work (Capital in the 21 century) has made him one of the greatest contemporary economists.

The economic theories supported by PIKKETY are quiet instructive and make me definitely more aware

about world incomes inequalities and capital behavior throughout more than two centuries. This book

was sincerely an impressive analysis upon our economic behavior led throughout centuries by societal

changes. On top of that, even if the book is generally about the world, Thomas PIKETTY often refers

to French societal context through famous book telling stories about former French society (?). These

references analyzed through many pages are inked in a matrix crossing Society behaviors with

Economic phenomenon. This allowed me to do a kind of trip back in time, consequently figuring than

things were enormously different before and supporting me in the idea that they will be more

different than ever in the next decades. Nothing is fixed or acquired and everything changes, even if

for most, it’s hard to accept.

In the second place, I felt the need to enhance my abilities to imagine how future could be, more

specifically. The last PIKETTY’s Book was a perfect overview of the past, but I really needed after that

to get an overview of the future. That’s why I chose as second global literature book “The Zero

Marginal Cost Society”, by Jeremy RIFKIN. I had already red one of these books (The Third Industrial

Revolution), which definitely changed the way I perceive my environment and make me more critic

about a range of topics. Obviously I already knew that RIFKIN had an amazing capacity to identify

current trends and extrapolate them in the future to create Books which seems like future’s arrays

whose consistency is striking. That is why I jumped at the chance and buy his last Books (The Zero

Marginal Cost Society). This Books has turned out extremely relevant as well for this work that for my

general studies. Exposing the way technologies always more improved are reducing the marginal cost

of goods to almost zero. From the Internet of Thing and 3D Printing to MOOC and Work’s changes,

the book sketches such a consistent future according to current main trends leading progressively

toward a more collaborative economy, making our globalized society more social-focusing and finally

reducing world-wide inequalities on the long term.

By reading both books, I have really got global knowledges I expected. From the past to understand

why things are like they are today, to the future to understand how things could change and toward

what direction, these books gave me an authentic and solid work-base to ink my scenarios and

correctly assess main possibilities we could face in next decades. This solid framework is essential for

our prospective research and make us better sensitive to fluctuation affecting future.


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3) We have looked forward current behaviors of financial entities to extract the core points of

our scenarios and strengthen our Drivers.

In this present part, to get a more specific details’ data base, we now need to highlight phenomenon

inked on a shorter term, timely closer to the substance of our research question as technologically as

societally and whose core involvements will be the cement that academically link scenarios’ short term

details to our long term global frame.

First main ideas have been evidenced through a large set of reports picked out among the most

prestigious economic and financial organizations. They are mainly about disruptive involvements of a

new generation of financial services providers, growing in a highly advanced technologic environment.

On the one hand, the report “The Future of FinTech” has suggested a notorious ability from FinTech

to change small business finance in a “significant and sustainable way” thus giving us important trails

concerning scenarios building. Furthermore, exposing a large overview of practices related to FinTech

it strengthens our research provided a range of solutions which could be more widespread in the

future we try to forecast. This report is provided by World Economic Forum which is a trustfully

organization conducting many studies around the world and which release each year voluminous

reports about various current economic trends. On the other hand, I read the Accenture’s report “The

future of FinTech and Banking” which in a different way highlight figures suggesting the FinTech’s

capacity to grow consequently in a proximate future. Moreover, by exposing the way Institutional

banks has to reorganize their structure to cope with this digital innovation’s wave, this report released

key information which concern our second Driver’s features. It underlines possibilities that Banks

don’t apply that transformation soon enough and thus open a real gap for them which has to

reimagine the way they bank to remain as strong as today. In addition to these findings, “The FinTech

Ecosystem Lumascape”, report conducted by Business Insider Intelligence (Business Insider, 2016),

give us a useful apprehension of five big trends which according BI’s analysts could well turn out

widespread like the Block Chain involvements, the mobile ordering and payment as well as

partnership-focusing behavior from banks.

In the second place, looking for quantitative information about French Banks and their general state

of health, we conduct a data collection through a range of paper published by The French Banking

Federation (FBF) which is the professional organization which represent every Banks implanted in the

country and release each month an updated version of key figures concerning French Banking Sector.

Basically the FBF provides us an almost instantaneously overview of current banking behavior in

France with its various papers often updated and which are: “Loans to individuals”, “Loans to small

and medium businesses (SME/TPE)”, “Loans to companies”, “Loans to Economy” and finally “French

Bank Sector’s key figures”. These figure underline something definitely relevant concerning the

unforecastable characteristic of our first Driver. Assuredly, throughout the reading of different figures,

we found out a major part of good indicator suggesting a strength position of the sector in France.

Since the last year, every outstanding loans has respectively follow a +3,9% growth for credit to

individual (Danton Petit, 2016), a +2,1% one for credit to SME/TPE (Céline Meslier, 2016), a +4,8% one

for credit to companies (Céline Meslier, 2016) and finally a +4% growth to general Economy (Ovilier

Lhomme, 2016). In a Country where 99% of people have a bank (Olivier Lhomme, 2016) account (and

where 1,91% rates loans are available to small business (2,71% is the European average), these range


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of positive figures suggests a kind of resistance which suggests the current situation rather uncertain

and make the French FinTech disruption less natural than it could be in other countries.

We have now perfectly figured out the Scenario Planning Method involved in this work. By getting

global long term academic knowledges, we built a solid structure upon which our scenario will be

crafted, thus giving them economic and societal consistency. Then by getting a specialized overview

covering main components of our prospective research (French Banks and FinTech), we found out

details, trends and previsions critically useful to enhance our scenarios, complete them and make

them globally wealthier. Furthermore, it has aided aid us to identify our Givens and isolate our Drivers.

Thus founded on a relevant literature collection, these scenarios ensure to bring out reliable

recommendations and relevant answers to our research question: To what extent French disruptive

FinTech companies could impact the traditional French Financial Services Sector? *

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Literature review

Introduction to the literature

This literature review will enhance our capacity to figure out academic and strategic relevance of this

scenario research. By exposing core documents and sources used throughout the documentation

process, we ensure to globally evidence key gaps covered by the prospective work and strengthen our

methodology choice. Furthermore, this chapter will improve our capacity to frame various concepts

and theories concerning our research question and allow us to find our key methodologic features.

In order to make this literature prism easier to follow and logically ink our scenarios within a global

academic structure, we develop this chapter in 3 parts. First, we will explain how literature has brought

out the prospective method the more relevant and why. Then in a second part, we will find out how

literature has suggested 2030 as a relevant horizon choice. Finally, we will figure out how literature

has given us crucial directions to undergo in order to correctly build our scenarios around credible

Drivers and Horizon.

Why literature has suggested the Scenario Method the more suitable?

As exposed in the introduction, our research process requires a specific academic method to be fully

operated. Indeed, Economic and social trends we analyze here are on the first step of a new cycle

(PIKETTY, 2013). They’re either identified throughout this work as a result of the disruptive

technologies of XXI century which have created a matrix Energy/Communication favorable to the

advent of a New Industrial Revolution (RIFKIN, 2011). Still according to RIFKIN, those news

technologies are adopting an exponentially growing behavior similar to those Moore described with

his famous Curve (Investopedia, 2003). This exponential growth is followed by a large range of new

technologies and especially by those whose improvements disrupt the current patterns, as illustrates

the 3D printing, the computer’s computing power or yet the number of items equipped with an

electronic chip connecting them into the IoT (RIFKIN, 2014). Therefore, in order to build up relevant

conclusions, useful on the long term and suitable to a technologic context which changes

exponentially quickly, we have to ensure a perfect understanding of the various future features which

directly or indirectly influence this work’s subject; Long term Financial Trends. Having in mind such

challenge, the Strategic Planning Book (Anglia, 2014) suggested Scenarios the most relevant to globally

assess futures’ eventualities. According to our research question, we want to figure out what is the

potential impact of Financial Technologies companies (FinTech) on the French Financial Services

industry by 2030. In attempt to get a complete overview of potential future situations, we find out

prospective academic method the more relevant. More precisely, this method involving the

construction of scenarios, is an analysis tools relevant to take long term decisions. According to Ged

Davis (European Trade Unions Institute, 2014):

“Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is make better

decisions in the present.”


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Moreover, as said in the European Trade Union Institute guide for scenario development, scenario

method turns out especially appropriate in context of rapid improvement as the one we face:

“The world is constantly changing, and these changes occur at a more frenetic

pace - to the extent that the context itself has become a variable. It is impossible

to predict with certainty the consequences of decisions made today. In this

context, scenarios help us to cope with the uncertainties of an open future. Like a

map, which enables us to guide us in space, scenarios present us different paths

towards the future.”

Our topic being characterized by a lightning digital revolution, whose impact are wide, many and

sudden, prospective approach turn out critically appropriate.

In a more strategic business mindset, the Shell Scenario Planning (Oliver sparrow, 1993) describes

scenarios as quite suitable to enhance our strategic decision ability upon future situations:

“It helps to add a framework to the process of strategic thinking”

These method is consequently especially suitable concerning this paper, which is a tools for

professionals to frame future trends and find out options to adapt their business strategies according

to various eventual contexts.

According to each of assumptions above, we therefore based our methodology around scenarios

building and enhance our capacity of prospective thinking using the famous Shell Scenario Planning

(Oliver Sparrow, 1993), the Scenario Elaboration Report of the European Trade Union Institute

(Meinert, 2014), the publication of Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers “Managing uncertainty, Living

in the future” (Harvard Business Review May 1, 2013), and the Report “Fashion Futures 2025” conduct

by Forum for the Future with Levis Strauss & Co (Forum for the Future, 2010).

Now we understand the relevance of the method to answer our research question, we will step by

step fulfill a pathway toward our final scenario building.

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How Literature has shaped our scenario planning?

1) Research Horizon: What scope for a long term exponential trend?

Phenomenon we treat and analyze in this work are quiet forecastable in the short term (3-5 years),

but face a lack of forecasts concerning their behavior throughout more than 10 years; A time scale

through which is more difficult to forecast such major trends because involving too much macro-

environmental factors whose forecasts encompass a tone of different eventualities. As you can see in

the graph below (European Trade Union Institute, 2014), our research horizon is fixed on 2030. In

order to provide long term strategic recommendations, a horizon at the first century’s third seems

rather suitable and relevant.

2) Driver prospection: How a relevant literature has suggested ways to answer?

I’m personally born in 90’s and consider myself part of this Y generation. Those which did not know

the Cold War or even the constant atomic threat, those which ask “Why?” for everything and those

which by internet could find all answers they desire to find. Basically I’m part of this Y generation,

which main features result entirely from one simple one: Being Connected.

Here is the crucial thing, this connection changes everything and each day inks an additional entity to

the huge international network embodied by Internet. This trend to be always more connected is one

of the main topics of the Jeremy RIFKIN book “The Zero Marginal Cost” that we quoted recently.

Published in 2014, It highlights the next step of this connected revolution, the Internet of Thing (IoT).

The IoT is the phenomenon whereby each items could in the future be connected to a giant Internet,

as the way most of us are connected through social media, blogs or various websites. This technology

combined with Big Data and Quantic Computers, allows engineers to algorithmically manage our

physical environment, organize it, make it more efficient, less entropic. It could make it

environmentally sustainable and even help to struggle inequalities.

Utopias

Hope and

Fatalism

Forecasts

Prediction of

the future

Potential

Scnearios Uncertainties

Certainties

Today Time 2030 2020

(from ETUI, 2014)


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Yes, the Y generation and its connected facet is a generation which more than ever, aspire to change

the world for a better one more egalitarian. It could appear kind of optimistic, maybe idealistic, or

even utopic for most and I agree, it is. Yet I would like we remember us Sir John LENON’s words: “You

say I’m a dreamer. But I’m not the only one”. Obviously, if one day should arrive where dreamers

would no longer feel alone, it will surely be today, in this XXI century that looks like no others (Social

Innovation, World Economic forum 2016).

Let us now link this Assumptions with the Financial trends. Mostly since the 2008 subprime crisis (The

Big Short, 2015), people of the world are aware of global issues and have learnt through medias and

internet to almost systematically bad-mouth behind the back of Financial Capital Markets - It’s not me

who said it, it’s Charles FERGUSON in the documentary Inside Job (FERGUSON, 2010). The question is

actually extremely complex due to the contemporary ultra-varied services provided by banks “Too big

to fail”, hedges fund or various financial services companies which use complex mechanisms as

securitization to create new financial products some time much better some time not. Nevertheless,

some of us nowadays know that complex structural issues concerning Financial Institutions make the

world face numerous obstacle when it’s about support social progress but much less when it’s about

agglomerate capital in few pockets. By and large, we could summarize the situation with the following

forecast graph, picked out from Thomas PIKKETY book “Capital of the XXI century”. You will see, it is

especially relevant to get an overview of the capital behavior, which as we can see follows a trend of

accumulation since its low point in 1950 and could keep going higher. And When we cross this context

of societal frustration resulting from the high concentrated capitals, with the digital disruption’s one,

we actually highlight the key concern we trying to cover with this work: A Financial Disruptive

Revolution is coming and FinTech are initiators of this revolution; Do Banks are prepared enough? Is

France ready?

(from PIKETTY, 2013)


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This is the current situation; we face a society which is influenced by a disruptive social-tech revolution

which once implemented could deeply transform mechanisms many century-old. Meanwhile,

Progress faces difficulties and obstacles ironically brought out by this connected revolution which

because disruptive, makes some people sick. Concerning precisely technologies, although they grow

and fit an exponentially larger part of our industry, our economy and our life, it either start to threat

former patterns which many depend thus bringing out some questions:

To what extent a disruptive revolution could be achieved within a potential negative opinion?

How it could affect our industries first, then our Economy and finally our Life?

The first finding is the growth of a young generation surrounded by technologies since birth. These

new adults born in a connected environment are going to be most adept to apply new high tech

processes to traditional businesses, more than each others could have done before. This environment

influence then since first stages of personal development through connected technologies, Screen and

Video games. According to “The Google Method” by Jeff JARVIS, it also makes them more open-

minded or for the least more aware of the rest of the world (HarperCollins Publishers 2009). They

know how technologies works better than ever, they have used to spend many time on the World

Wide Web since their youngest age, and they are generally more efficient, more self-managed, and

more autonomic. They should as well accept easier disruptive features involved in technologies they

know. This generation therefore fit a potential huge market for financial technologies companies

(FinTech).

Such context could be interpreted as a royal pathway for FinTech companies to develop their activities.

Through a logical forecast process, we therefore could imagine that FinTech breakthrough is

inevitable, aren’t we? Unfortunately for Financial Technologies Companies, it’s not as simple as that.

The Point is the following; we are studding France. France is a country where history, politic values

and traditional principles fit a large place within the common moral concepts (Thomas PIKKETY, 2013)

and especially when it’s about money, wealth or even trade (We are voluntarily generalizing). The

abolition of nobility’s privileges two centuries ago has ink the country in a suspicion climate concerning

high capitals, especially among the left-most fringes of the population, political ancestor of current

socialists and radical labor parties. In addition to two traumatic Word War, French society guided by

“Providence State” throughout the glorious Thirty have basically become definitely more social

focusing and by French extension; suspicious toward high capitals or incomes. Actually, a large part of

French public opinion is rather conservative and still traditionally opposed to liberal legislations (Nuit

Debout, 2016). A wired when we to surf the disruptive waves of a cataclysmic Third Industrial

Revolution (Jeremy RIFKIN, 2013).

French traditional financial companies are especially concerned by these changes because truly bigger

than other-ones, critically sensible and especially able to implement disruptive technologies in their

business patterns (Jeffery D. Sachs, 2016). On top of that, they have to face the possibility to be in

competition with new financial technologies companies (FinTech). Those which provide services of

the same nature, but with lower prices, lower restrictions and which in case of success could be a

sustainable banks’ replacement. FinTech’s are today on the first step of a long path toward a higher

penetration in the markets. In a society cleaved between always more disruptive ideas brought up by


17 SID 1519049

Reluctant to transit toward financial

technologies companies

Likely to transit toward tinancial

technologies compagnies

young generation and traditional values supported by former generations, only time should answer

to the next question: Is French society ready to disrupt their former economy to transit in a new one

that most have trouble to imagine?

Because nobody can actually forecast precisely to what extent French public opinion could change and

toward what direction, this work has consequently to postpone advises and strategic conclusions for

both following potential situations by 2030 horizon:

An overall French society likely to adopt disruptive financial services provided by FinTech instead

of traditional banks.

An overall French society reluctant to adopt disruptive financial services provided by FinTech

instead of traditional banks.

This divergence in potential future just highlight our first Driver, critically relevant concerning our

scenarios building (Shell, 1993) and influencing horizon both opposed way.

Driver 1: Aptitude of French consumers to transit toward disruptive technologies companies

concerning their wealth management, loans demands and payments.

Drivers are vectors with two directions, both strictly opposed (ETUI, 2014). These two directions

embody two future possibilities. We have above the first Driver, which shape the first dimension of

our scenario map. Nevertheless, now we need to find out the second dimension of this scenario map

in order to make them even more appropriate to answer our research question. The first Drivers give

us an analytic framework related to the FinTech’s growth capacity, which is only one part of the

question. The second part of the question is the potential impact of this growth upon the French

Personal Financial Services Sector.

According to PESTEL analysis suggested to find out Scenarios’ Drivers, FinTech is a new threat in the

banks surrounding. Like Transfer Wise which reduce the fees for foreign transactions, Lending Club

which provide peer-to-peer lends or Yomoni which provides personalized financial advises according

to your strategy and your risk profile, many start-ups are currently emerging with structural

improvements and simplifications allowing them to be more dynamic, efficient and resilient to waves

of digital innovations. To the opposite, Banks face a new challenge and have to schedule new

strategies to implement disruptive technologies within its organizational structure, in order to avoid

being putted away and viewed as old and reluctant to new connected economy.

Driver 1


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Weakly equipped to cope with next wages of digital

innovations

Highly equipped to cope with next wages of digital

innovations

To improve their organizational structure and remain technologically updated, the Report of the

London FinTech Innovation Lab (Accenture, 2015) suggests few key directions strategies should

undergo. We highlighted these key directions in the following illustration:

This scheme suggests the hypothetical best pathway for bank to cope with next waves of digital

innovation. However, a question remains central: Either Banks will implement such strategies soon

enough and quick enough and lead a Personal financial digital revolution, either it may be the contrary

and FinTech too much flexible for institutional banks will snack Financial Services sector’s market

shares and cut the grass under banks’ feet. We consequently face the second divergence concerning

the potential futures of institutional banks patterns:

Reimagine structural organization soon and quick enough to finally being highly equipped to cope

with next waves of digital innovations

De not be able to reimagine it at time and being weakly equipped to cope with next waves of

digital innovations

This divergence therefore allows us to finally shape the second dimension of our scenario map through

the following driver:

Driver 2: How equipped do banks are to cope with next wages of digital innovations

Driver 2

Collaborate

Act Open

Invest


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A1 B1

B2

A2

A1

A2

B1

B2

Driver 2 Concerning French tradtional

Financial compagnies

Driver 1 Concerning Individual wealth

management and needs

Scenarios Building

Scenario Map

From these two main drivers, we are now able to expose our scenario map. This orthonormal frame

allows us to make our scenarios clearly obvious and logically shaped. Indeed, guided by direction of

Drivers, these scenarios will embody together a global hypothetical projection of what the future

Horizon could be.

Digital Banks

Big vs Small

Living in the past

Decline of

Banks


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“Digital Banks by 2030”

This scenario is based on the following hypothesis:

French population rather reluctant to assign their incomes into Start-up using disruptive

financial technologies will remain away from young FinTech and prefer to trust traditional

Banks to manage their wealth.

French Banking sector, aware of the disruptive side of new financial technologies concerning

their viability, will quickly go ahead and implement quick enough what needs to be

implemented to cope with such context.

Into this development, we therefore go to find out how banks could shift their classic patterns trough

new structural and organizational improvements in order to cope efficiently with disruptive waves of

innovation in Financial Technologies. Furthermore, FinTech being one which embodies these

disruptive waves, we also will find out why those last could turn out being inappropriate to reach the

French Market.

Why Traditional French Banks could become Digital by 2030?

2016 – 2018

The average worldwide investments in FinTech has tripled since 2012 and its curve could well follow

an exponential path throughout these next decades following other investments in disruptive

technologies as the Internet of Thing and the 3D printing. The 3rd of May 2016, France FinTech organize

the largest French event related to FinTech outlooks to define what the future holds for all

stakeholders. Heavy politicians and Personalities are part of this like Emmanuel MACRON (French

Minister of Economy), Nick LEEDER (Director of Google FR), Laurent SOLLY (Director at Facebook FR),

François VILLEROY de GALHAU (Governor of Banque de France) or even the ex-COO of Lending Club

John DONOVAN. This conference’s outputs have turned out relevant for Banks and French

Government which picked out main improvement to implement in order to catch the FinTech Wave,

as well legally (make the law more flexible meanwhile strengthen AMF regulation power) than

structurally (Make Banks easier to restructure and encourage partnership with start-up) and

economically (Transit toward a consumer-focusing strategy, reduce additional costs by fulfilling an

open-strategy concerning information share).

2018 – 2020

ADVIZE, a financial advisor start-up which provide a flexible portfolio management service, has been

taken over by BNP PARIBAS (member of the R3CEV block-chain consortium since November 2015)

which follow a Digital strategic plan. Crédit Agricole follows the initiative and take over YOMONI which

is the main French competitor in digital Financial advice. Crédit Agricole already had a range of mobile

solution for its customers and by integrating YOMONI become one of the more customer-focusing

French bank with BNP. Meanwhile, major banks also are in a Frenzy of partnerships and each of us

now have a complete set of mobile application making people able to bank without going to physical

office. This dematerialization make banks globally need to downsize and cut costs removing

unproductive departments (physical offices, personal advisers) to keep investing in sustainable


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restructuration. Following the BNP’s example which in 2016 had deleted 675 jobs, 5 of the biggest

French banks therefore release important redundancy plans.

2020 – 2025

R3CEV consortium now brings together the major part of traditional French banks in collaboration

with several International banks. In 2020, R3CEV announce the first implementation of a global inter-

bank collaboration ecosystem based on the Block Chain Technologies. Through a partnership with

Microsoft and its Azure cloud whose possibilities are endless, R3CEV allow members to transfer

money, share information and create contracts with historically reduced costs and safe framework

protected against fraud. Furthermore, Block Chain ecosystem make French banks able to create smart

contract (self-executing documents) more suitable to individuals’ needs, speed up business

transactions and using powerful algorithms, keeping ledgers synced. Thus complex environments like

banks and financial companies are simpler to analyze and better to manage whereas costs are

substantially cut.

Next years, French FinTech Start-ups specialized in mobile payment explode and enforce to compete

with Apple, Google and Samsung’s payment solutions. Indeed, Block chain ecosystem combined with

Big Data have created a huge opportunity for start-up to develop smart payment applications and

allow people to pay directly with their phone or their smart-watch with almost no additional fees. To

illustrate, 40% of payment are smartly payed by 2022 and 60% by 2024. Nevertheless, 75% of mobile

transaction are still performed trough the famous IT companies’ wallet apps and local FinTech has

barely progressed. Detecting in this business a potential threat to their payment incomes’ sources,

French banks now more horizontally structured and thus agiler to change, have taken over between

2022 and 2025 many Payment FinTech like MangoPay or SlimPay in order to stay competitive with

biggest High-Technologies companies. Therefore, in 2025 French banks are fully equipped and thanks

their FinTech partners are able to propose a qualitative offer to French population, enough

strengthened and customer-focusing to become highly competitive.

2025 – 2030

In 2025, only 20% of the French population keep going into banks’ offices to manage their account

and adapt their services to their profile. The total weight of the classic Banking Sector into total

employment decrease from 15% in 2016 to 5% in 2025. Meanwhile, the Credit high demand trends

begun in 2017 has been confirmed and French individuals’ demand for loans is staidly raising.

Especially in a decade of major transitions, many entrepreneurs want to fund their projects and 10%

of missing former banks’ employees have made inflated this entrepreneurial global behavior

principally by creating Start-up as well numerous as specialized. This need to fund a huge economic,

social and energetic revolution is satisfied by two major means; Digital Banks’ loans on a side and

FinTech solution on the other side (Peer-to-peer lending, crowdfunding, small Business private equity

markets), embodied on the major part by international FinTech (Kick Starter, KissKissBankBank, …).

This bipolar situation quiet profitable for businesses because diversified, actually become rather

dangerous for French economy. Banks which hold the major part of French savings and pensions face

in this second decade’s half face few difficulties to keep strong assets because a fierce competition

with foreign FinTech in credit allocation. To regulate this situation and guarantee pensions and savings

to the population, French Government have decided in 2026 to encourage FinTech Start-up and banks

to bring them together within 5 French Financial Hub implemented in biggest French town. Every


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FinTech which reach a Hub will be financially helped and could work among a wealthy dynamic

environment. These Hubs of financial activities then allow actors (Big Digital Banks and Small

Innovative Start-up) to collaborate efficiently in order to enhance their capacity to create attractive

smart and flexible products to satisfy the loans demand steadily raising. In 2029, Financial Hubs

regroup more than 150 companies, supply 75% of the French credit demand and relaunch the

employment in the sector reaching 10% in 2029. Finally, in 2030 the Government inject 5 Billion in

Financial Hubs and announce the next main economic plan of the France History: Lead a French

Sustainable and Collaborative Economy by 2050

________________________________________


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Big Vs Small by 2030”


French population rather likely to transit toward new financial technologies to manage their

wealth have begun to join young FinTech start-up and progressively leave traditional Banks to

change the way they bank as soon as they could.

French Banking sector aware that many customers already leave them for FinTech, quickly go

ahead and begin to improve their structure in order to remain competitive with new small.

Into this second development, we are going to evidence a context of high competition between classic

traditional Banks and new FinTech Start-up which quickly turned out being an important threat for

former Banking sector’s sustainability. Trying to imagine how such a situation could happen and how

French financial stakeholders should cope with it to remain competitive.

When former Big become threaten by new Small

2016 – 2018

2017 was a key year concerning FinTech development in France. In the first hand, TransferWize (a

FinTech Start-up which allow people to send money to each other and especially aboard with residual

costs), has known a 120% growth principally supported by a high-communication in social Network

since 2015 aided by a total funding of 91M$ from its unveiling in 2011. Thanks this powerful peer-to-

peer money transfer service, the company cover in 2018 45% of French market shares concerning

money transaction usually handled by traditional Banks which saw their incomes consequently

decrease. Meanwhile, Yomoni and Advize which provide flexible and customizable savings solutions

have both steadily grown and now reach 8% of French total savings (mainly through middle classes).

Finally, the Peer-to-peer credit trends has been strengthened and FinTech specialized in

Crowdfunding, Peer-to-peer lending and Equity Crowdfunding has been used trough 30% of French

financial needs.

2018 – 2020

French Banks has realized a certain vulnerability through the increasing demand for FinTech in peer-

to-peer lending and transfer. Therefore, they have begun since the end of 2017 to restructure their

activities. Indeed, BNP, LCL and other major traditional banks have taken together the opportunity

from R3CEV to strengthen their set of mobile application transferring a large part of their financial

activities toward digital platforms to encourage people using FinTech solutions to transit toward their

new tools. On the opposite, France assist to the emergence of Financial Technologic Pole bringing

together FinTech start-ups within two specialized hubs: The Crowdfunding French Hub implanted in

Nantes gather Ulule (The first European Crowdfunding company), Seedrs (an equity crowdfunding),

Mymajorcompany (a French participative funding company) and 6 other crowdfunding FinTech

specialized respectively in ecological funding, social funding, innovation funding, TPE/PME funding,

Individuals micro-funding and even one political funding. Furthermore, a Technologic Financial Advice

Hub has been implanted close to Paris La Défense bringing together FinTech Start-Up specialized in

Robot-advisors and individuals’ portfolio management (Yomoni, Advize, …). Letting Traditional Banks


24 SID 1519049

aside, these Hubs promote the end of a Banking Sector too big to fail, the diversification and the

specialization of financial services companies.

2020 – 2025

Both crowdfunding Hub and Technologic Financial Advice Hub surprise the French economy draining

in 2023 more than 35% of global French banking activities thus employing 5% of the total French

payroll. Meanwhile, traditional banks did not have choice and between 2017 and 2025 cut the major

part of their physical activities reducing the classic banking payroll from 15% in 2016 to 3% in 2025.

Forced to specialize to remain competitive against new FinTech Hubs, they have reorganized their

activities, downsized and take over a couple of start-ups which would accept to join them. To better

frame the situation, even Public funds handled by the Government are now entrusted up to 40% to

the Technologic Financial Advice Hub while 60% are held by traditional banks. In order to keep its

market shares and avoid a serious collapse, Traditional smaller banks progressively join FinTech Hubs

which ink the possibility to make them entire part of the new FinTech ecosystem. In counterpart, they

have accepted to reduce their action scope, decentralized their head office and accept to be under

the tutelage of a Hub where each company works with other ones, not against. Otherwise, bigger ones

like BNP or Société Générale which has developed digital activities strong enough to remain

competitive, shift toward new strategy by proposing a global digital ecosystem making credit, savings

advice, money management and payment unified within one platform per bank. Société Générale thus

make available its platform “MFDW” (My Financial Digital World) come to compete with other banks’

unify packages which globally reach 30% of the French population; mainly those who were seeking for

a simple unified platform bringing together all what they need to bank in a single application.

2025 – 2030

Throughout the second half of the decade, the French Global Banking sector is relatively stable and a

clear trend is taking shape for the long term. Indeed, to achieve an energetic transition and transit

toward and collaborative economic revolution involving industries like 3D printing or even global

electric smart grid’s construction, plenty entrepreneur starts their own business. In 2025, 10% of

superior graduated decide to develop their own start-up, and consequently need funds to start the

activities. Official figures are deeply clear; 75% of young businesses chose FinTech funding solution to

support their projects. According to them, more diversified, Crowdfunding FinTech make available to

entrepreneur financial products more flexible, suitable to their size and more relevant because

internationally open. Another heavy trend suggests older Businesses which reached a substantial and

sustainable market, are likelier to set up their activities through a unify platform, easier to manage in

order to increase business efficiency. This trend actually illustrates the cession between big former

Bank which achieve their digital transformation, and smaller companies which enforce to make

finance easier and more accessible to any initiator. In other words, it highlights the main differences

between markets reached by both FinTech companies and Banks; Young companies seeking for

development and risk are likelier to request FinTech services (more diversified, more specialized)

whereas older companies rather seeking durability and security are likelier to request a classic unify

application from classic Bank, making finance management easier and safer. In this Big Vs Small

scenario, banks therefore remain the dominant long term financial services provider, although FinTech

companies brought together in FinTech Hubs became the financial incubator for start-up and a

catalyzer for progress.


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Decline of Banks by 2030”


French population is rather likely to transit toward new technologies concerning their wealth

management. The general opinion is suspicious about banking sector and new disruptive

solutions appears as a means to make finance fairer.

Major Banks are late and didn’t took decisions soon enough to cope with new disruptive

financial technologies making them weaker.

This scenario is going to improve our ability to manage financial mutation’s context from former too

big to fail Banks toward New Disruptive FinTech companies. It will evidence the way our economy

could be impacted in the situation of a massive transition and thus make us able to be prepared to

cope with such eventuality. Voluntarily underlined, the attractiveness of FinTech solutions are here

considered at their maximum potential and should be analyzed accordingly.

In a fast growing society of low marginal cost, being big is not so well

2016 – 2018

The 3rd of May 2016, The event “FinTech R:EVOLUTION” organized by France Fintech brought out

dozens of French FinTech, those qualified of “The bests French FinTech” among which Yomoni and

Advize (both FinTech leader of French Personal wealth management), Leetchi and Ulule (deemed

among crowdfunding European FinTech) and many others from Payment solutions, to peer to peer

lending and even personal Trading ones. This conference has allowed jewels of French FinTech’s to

know more about the current state of development of their competitors but has also made them more

conscientious about the general long term potential of the disruptive revolution they all embody. The

idea according to what they should bring themselves together within Financial Technologic Hub has

been put on the table and first plans to elaborate such a collaboration began to be scheduled in order

to reach it by 2025.

2018 – 2020

FinTech growth rates are staggering and in 2019 FinTech industry globally grew on average by 15%

each year since 2016 with a 26% growth just in this 2020 year. People who by the past where rather

suspicious concerning FinTech companies have yet well assimilated the opportunity they actually face

through those new players. Thanks to a great communication from France FinTech upon them and an

accurate synchronization in their own communication campaign, French FinTech companies have

reach their goal and perfectly shared the excitement about this new smart way to bank with the

French population. In a study published by the end of 2020 by the INSEE, three French citizens on five

have related having consulted a digital FinTech in order to cover a financial need, 40% declare having

already transfer partially or fully their funds through FinTech personal robot advisors, 55% confess

being interested by crowdfunding to fund their personal projects, 72% usually use Electronic wallet

(for the most using Bitcoins) to pay without fees and 66% has related a willingness to leave their

traditional bank over the next five years. Meanwhile, Banks afraid by this huge reversal of situation

have tried to catch the digital trend the most quickly they could. They however have faced a range of

issues caused by a complex historic structure full of toxic clauses making processes slower. Certain


26 SID 1519049

have tried to take over FinTech in the hope of taking profit from their experience but just few start-

ups accepted whereas the major part, already in the scope to collaborate in future FinTech Hubs, had

politely declined the offer.

2020 – 2025

FinTech keep going toward the idea to group their activities within Financial Technology Hubs by 2025.

Those enough developed have already begun to implant their activities in strategic places near the

most dynamic French towns. In 2022, bargains between BNP Parisbas and Yomoni which was a hope

for the traditional commercial bank to catch the individual wealth management trend and recover its

past health, has failed and no agreement was found. The following week, the BNP stock fall by 18%.

Resulting in its fall the global trust in institutional banks, 2022 is the year which rush the Banking

exodus. To prevent against serious economic collapses potentially dangerous for French economy and

French Retirement Pension, Government didn’t find alternative that’s hedge his back by transferring

property and funds toward more trustfully and durable entities. Therefore, an emergency plan called

“Transit Toward a Smart Bank; Now or never”. Between 2023 and 2025 government thus injected 15

Billion in the achievement of National Financial Technology Hubs distributed near each of the

following town: Paris, Bordeaux, Nantes, Lyon, Marseille, Clermont-Ferrand and Lilles. Bringing

together French FinTech as well as international ones, France has thus laid the foundations for a

sustainable long term FinTech industry, horizontally structured, led by decentralized decision more

suitable to local needs and each year welcoming New Start-Up which technologically enhance our

financial efficiency.

2025 – 2030

Yet a major Issue remain on the table after this Banking revolution; what will weaker traditional bank

become? In order to help them and save what could be saved, Government encourage those still

standing to join FinTech Hub and accept a total restructuration of their former patterns to aid French

FT-Hubs to lead a collaborative economy revolution bringing on the table their historical experience.

Those which declined were rather rare if not non-existent. In 2028, French Financial Technology Hubs

employ 10% of the total active population (still less than 15% that Banks employed by the past but the

figure is growing each year with Start-ups joining Hubs). The same year, FBF’s Key Figures revealed

positive indicators concerning the French Economy; In 2028, loans to Economy have grown by 15%

(Loans to Individuals by 11%, to SME/TPE by 22% and loans to companies by 12%). On top of that

French savings has been fruited by 6% into Wealth Management FinTech (Robot advisors and Private

Analysts) thus shifting toward an inflation economy suitable to a goal of high Green Growth. In 2030,

France is elected second country the most innovative of the world in the “Top 100 global innovator”

published by Thomson Reuters. This status comes mainly from the fact that French Start-up have

internationally shown an incredible determination to achieve technologic improvement necessary to

globally reduce inequalities and spread those technologies the more they could. The influence of

French Start-ups is catalyzed by a smart financial ecosystem, using Big Data to locate ideas the more

sustainable and fund them, underlying the initiative improving the civic sector and thanks ultra-

diversified FinTech activities able to satisfy needs of thousands of job corps collaborating in specialized

communities. Even if its GDP Growth is yet lower than in powerful economies like China Japan or

United Stated, France’s percentage of Green and Social Growth is more than 40% what means that,

like it was for human rights last centuries, France again spread equality values around the entire world.


27 SID 1519049

“Living in the past by 2030”


French population is mostly reluctant to transit toward Disruptive financial technologies

concerning their wealth management, their need to loans or the way they pay. Individuals’

education concerning money is quiet weak and French prefer let the Bank assume risks and

perform operations.

Despite the fact they keep their market shares safe, traditional banks don’t give as much

importance to FinTech improvements and keep going on their traditional strategy remaining

fees stable and collaborating the bare minimum with start-up providing new way to bank.

This last scenario may turn out being the worth for the French economy. It embodies the possibility

that France remain in its conservative mindset thus making the country’s economy weaker against

foreign FinTech initiatives supported by exponential investments and deep reforms. Through this

Hypothetical future, we obviously want to expose the worth direction that France could follow, the

one which could definitely ink the historic powerful economy into a deep aging and progressively relay

it far behind his European neighborhoods.

Do not respond is tantamount to letting die

2016 – 2018

Throughout 2017, Presidential Campaigns have shaken the public opinion and few candidates have

spread nationalist ideas invoking a necessity to protect the country against globalization and free

trade. The 15th of May 2017, the Nationalist party “Front National” has been democratically chosen

by French. Upon the Bank and financial questions, their politic program is clear; Protect French Banks

against eventual competition by ultra-strengthen financial regulations, restrict trading operations

considered too risky, implement banking data protection policies and prevent most foreign

investment in French industries. The following 2018 year, 73% of requests from FinTech start-up to be

legally recognized has financial services provider has been declined by AMF thus slowing down the

French FinTech development. At the same time, banks too busy implementing new legislations

through their complex structure don’t pay attention to the necessity to reorganize their activities

faced with the threat of International Financial Technologies companies.

2018 – 2020

In the absence of possibility to implement technologic tools as foreign banks already did, supported

by FinTech start-ups (partnerships and mergers and acquisitions), major traditional French banks

concentrate its effort to enhance their digital platforms in order to ensure French digital demand is

satisfied. French population is still suspicious about alternative financial services companies as well as

mobile wallets or peer-to-peer loans. Keep going to bank through traditional unified banking apps,

they stay away from Financial Technologies’ start-ups and thus create a general hostile context for

their development. Meanwhile, neighboring investments into FinTech industry has reach an historic

level and the FinTech industry is even designed by most business review as the market with growth

opportunities the important. To respond to this increased willingness to control the French economy

inside border and protect the country against an open world, an important wave of protestation


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supported by Most of Young generations has emerge from every French major town. In 2020, to

celebrate the second decade of the XXI century in their own way, a collective of Hackers supported by

the international movement Anonymous has achieve the bigger hack of the French History. Five Tera-

octets of confidential banking information has been release publically in only one Week containing 40

Million French’s banking information.

2020 – 2025

After The 2020 Banking Information’s Hack, French Banks had to react the most quickly they could to

protect its consumer’s savings, avoid fraud and increase the security level of their confidential

information to keep away new hacking threats. The whole restructuration in order to achieve such

improvement has cost them a lot of money and a lot of time. Foreign countries having already

implemented the Block-Chain technology within their structure are mostly protected against such

Hack and France therefore seems like distraught what cause a global French banks’ stocks 10% falling

down. Of course the government remains positive and announce that French Banks are now stronger

against informatics attacks, what French citizens mostly believe and consequently remain faithful to

their bank. Although the 2020’s Hack has created some breaches in French Banks firewall, it also

initiates something still more interesting; The Years which follows the Hack, French citizen has

received a tone of advertising E-Mail proposing them various banking services provided by foreign

Financial Technologies’ companies. Indeed, Foreign FinTech already well developed have jumped at

the chance and most have even created teams with sole purpose to use data released in 2020 and

reach the more French citizens they could. In 2025, 20% of the French population perceiving fragilities

in French traditional Banks have therefore transited toward Foreign FinTech principally for their

savings management and payment means.

2025 – 2030

Finally understanding the necessity to open data relatives to French Banking habits to support new

French Financial technologies initiatives, the government decide in 2026 to authorize the AMF to

release banking information to Private FinTech companies with the hope to boost the French Fintech

still insignificant compare with its European neighbors. The Consequence was radical and did not come

from where expected. Only in 2027, one year after the legislations was implemented, French

percentage of the population using FinTech climbed from 20% to 55%. This result could appear rather

optimistic for French economy, but actually the Part of the French FinTech among every FinTech

reaching French citizens is only 15%. Bad News for the French Stocks Index, which loose its biggest

players and don’t bail out with new FinTech entrants. In 2028, AXA SA stocks has totally fell from 20,31

in February 2016 to 13,6 in February 2028, CIC’s stock from 173,05 to 120,13, Natixis from 4,87 to

2,95, BNP from 42,45 top 32,62, Crédit Agricole from 9,43 to 6,58 and Société Générale from 32,02 to

21,18. Because French FinTech didn’t reach a sufficient market to become heavy enough to support

the French economy and reach the 40 highest French Market Capitalizations (CAC 40), the French

Index dramatically fall from 4500 in 2016 to 3340 in 2028 initiating a structural low trust-trend

concerning the French economy around the world. In 2030, three traditional Banks on five have gone

bankrupt. French GDP is relay from the 6th position in global ranking to the 10 behind India, Canada,

South Korea and Brazil. French population no longer hoping a revival of the Former Historic Power

progressively leave, emigrate toward more dynamic country. Basically, in 2030 France is living in the

past.


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Conclusion and recommendations

Conclusion

These scenarios have evidenced four main directions that France could undergo concerning the way

its banking environment (Banks and FinTech) will become by 2030. The most probable ones are the

“Big vs Small” and “Digital Banks” scenarios. The first one keeps our both actors safe and implement

a high competition context within the French financial sector, rather profitable to both industries

banks and FinTech and consequently more likely to be follow by the French Institutions. The second

one is also rather probable. Indeed, because the French specificity to be generally reluctant concerning

technologies which disrupt its current social-focused system, Banks which have interest to digitalize

their activities has a large room for maneuver and are less pressurized.

If those scenarios are rather more credible because following the idea according to what Banks will be

equipped soon enough to cope with next waves of digital disruptions, both others could well turn out

preciously useful in the case of a major event would come to change the current context. Whether it

is the election of a nationalist candidate to the precedence, a vindictive initiative from FinTech to walk

away from Banks and properly disrupt them or even a social revolution slowing down the entire

process, those situations still have a substantial probability to happen and will there be critically useful

when it’s about cope with the most unexpected. This Scenario planning should therefore remain

useful for yet a few years.

Recommendations

1. Banks should collaborate more with Start-up, thus creating a trustfully partnership ecosystem

profitable for both banks and FinTech.

2. Banks should increase investments in High Technologies especially in Block Chain which will

radically improve many former mechanisms.

3. The R3CEV consortium should be the main leader of the Block Chain spreading through most

World Wide banks. BNP shouldn’t be the only French bank being part of that.

4. Yomoni and Advize are now big enough to promote their activities and could well become

highly attractive after a few year of positive results. Banks should take a peek for an eventual

acquisition.

5. FinTech Start-up should join the France FinTech group to become member of a dynamic

specialized community where members think the future together.

6. Each French Bank should quickly implement a unify electronic application for their consumers.

It’s imperative and will make further technologic implementations easier to release.


30 SID 1519049

7. If a nationalist party win next elections, Banks have to quickly partnership with technologic

companies even if those last are not FinTech. Everything shall be done to remain open on the

rest of the world, and only communication technologies could do that when legislation

doesn’t.

8. FinTech should implement their activities in dynamic geographic poles in order to remain

surrounded by various financial companies as well start-ups as Banks.

9. Banks shouldn’t be left aside by FinTech; it could seriously affect the economy on the long

term. FinTech has also to collaborate with big institution in order to act responsibly and safely

transit toward a new economy.

10. Banks should follow an important restructuration plan, cut posts and specialized their activites

if they want to protect their assets against next disruptive waves.

11. FinTech should collaborate with others and create Strategic agglomerates to better organize

their activities and promote together a new way to bank. Then such conglomerate could well

become the Financial Technologic Hubs of our scenarios.

12. Collaborate, collaborate and still collaborate. Don’t forget the long term target: A

collaborative economy.

________________________________________


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Endnote

I hope This work will help French traditional financial companies or FinTech Start-ups to cope

efficiently with the next future. Something huge is happening, whether in Finance that in every

component of our current society. Oil prices are crashing down, Green energies are developed more

quickly than ever, Space X rocket has successfully landed on Earth after being in space, AI has beaten

human in GO which is the game the most complex we ever created, we are 3D printing glass, steal and

cement and even MIT lectures are now available on YouTube. All that to says that obviously, we are

really leaving a historic transition from former individualistic patterns supported by IP and individual

success toward new collaborative ones whose values are Transparency, Sustainability and Open

sourced information. I wish I could support this transition which is full of hope for many people around

the world and I intend to be part of it along my life. Finally, If I should give a last advice, it would be

for French society, especially to all these young people which are fiercely protesting outside:

Let’s be proud of our past, of our traditions, of our legacy and our history but please don’t let us be

nostalgic of a world which doesn’t exist anymore. Let’s be proud of our freedom, proud to claim it,

protect it and being its ambassadors, but do not use it to prevent a step towards the future, because

it’s a step towards the future which formerly allowed this liberty. Stop be stationary, generally

suspicious and sadly desperate. Instead let us be new, express our ideas and discuss about it around

tables. Let us remember our power, we are France! A strong people’s culture, diversity and

engagement. So no matter our backgrounds, let us rethink our way to collaborate, to interact and to

share; Let us catch the future together, it’s time.

Nicolas AUCONIE


32 SID 1519049

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37 SID 1519049

Ethics Application Form

Section 1: RESEARCHER AND PROJECT DETAILS

Researcher details:

Name(s): Nicolas Pierre Robert AUCONIE

Department:

Faculty:

Anglia Ruskin email address: [email protected]

Status:

Undergraduate yes Taught Postgraduate

Postgraduate Research

Staff

If this is a student project:

SID: 1519049

Course title: Business Administration

Supervisor/tutor name

Project details:

Project title (not module title): How fintech could redefine the French economic landscape?

Data collection start date: (note must be prospective)

19 February 2016

Expected project completion date: April 2016

Is the project externally funded? no

Licence number (if applicable):

CONFIRMATION STATEMENTS – please tick the box to confirm you understand these requirements

The project has a direct benefit to society and/or improves knowledge and understanding. yes

All researchers involved have completed relevant training in research ethics, and consulted the Code of Practice for Applying for Ethical Approval at Anglia Ruskin University.

yes

The risks participants, colleagues or the researchers may be exposed to have been considered and appropriate steps to reduce any risks identified taken (risk assessment(s) must be completed if applicable, available at: http://rm.anglia.ac.uk/extlogin.asp) or the equivalent for Associate Colleges.

yes

My research will comply with the Data Protection Act (1998) and/or data protection laws of the country I am carrying the research out in, as applicable. For further advice please refer to the Question Specific Advice for the Stage 1 Research Ethics Approval.

yes

Project summary (maximum 500 words): Please outline rationale for the research, the project aim, the research questions, research procedure and details of the participant population and how they will be recruited. World financial system change throughout new revolutions in communication technologies. Indeed, the emergence of internet suggest a more collaborative society where former institution become decentralised. Moreover, the Big Date phenomenon allow us to bank differently and make people able to shape a personalized more experience. Finally, news society’s outlooks suggest than finance could become more local, thus supporting local initiatives especially efficient in a decentralised society. Let us therefore analyse how fintech start-ups which combine finance with new technologies, could become new actors able to change finance outlooks in French society.

http://rm.anglia.ac.uk/extlogin.asp

http://web.anglia.ac.uk/anet/rdcs/ethics/index.phtml


38 SID 1519049

Is your research ONLY a desk-based or library-based study that requires no direct or indirect contact with human participants; and which also is likely to have no impact on the environment? Desk-based (or secondary) research involves the summary, collation and/or synthesis of existing research. For further information, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_research

Yes/No If Yes, proceed to the Declaration in Section 5 and from there to the green channel.

Section 2: RESEARCH ETHICS CHECKLIST - please answer YES or NO to ALL of the questions

below.

WILL YOUR RESEARCH STUDY? YES NO

1 Involve any external organisation for which separate research ethics clearance is required (e.g. NHS, Social Services, Ministry of Justice) For NHS research involving just staff that requires NHS R&D Management Approval only and Social Care research please check with your FREP Chair whether this will be regarded as equivalent to Anglia Ruskin University’s ethical approval.

no

2 Involve individuals aged 16 years of age and over who lack capacity to consent and will therefore fall under the Mental Capacity Act (2005)?

no

3

Collect, use or store any human tissue/DNA including but not limited to serum, plasma, organs, saliva, urine, hairs and nails? Contact [email protected]

no

4 Involve medical research with humans, including clinical trials? no

5 Administer drugs, placebos or other substances (e.g. food substances, vitamins) to human participants?

no

6 Cause (or could cause) pain, physical or psychological harm or negative consequences to human participants?

no

7 Involve the researchers and/or participants in the potential disclosure of any information relating to illegal activities; or observation/handling/storage of material which may be illegal?

no

8 With respect to human participants or stakeholders, involve any deliberate deception, covert data collection or data collection without informed consent?

no

9 Involve interventions with children and young people under 16 years of age? no

10 Relate to military sites, personnel, equipment, or the defence industry? no

11 Risk damage or disturbance to culturally, spiritually or historically significant artefacts or places, or human remains?

no

12 Involve genetic modification, or use of genetically modified organisms above that of routine class one activities? Contact [email protected] (All class one activities must be described in Section 4).

no

13 Contain elements you (or members of your team) are not trained to conduct? no

14 Potentially reveal incidental findings related to human participant health status? no

15 Present a risk of compromising the anonymity or confidentiality of personal, sensitive or confidential information provided by human participants and/or organisations?

no

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_research

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


39 SID 1519049

16 Involve colleagues, students, employees, business contacts or other individuals whose response may be influenced by your power or relationship with them?

no

17 Require the co-operation of a gatekeeper for initial access to the human participants (e.g. pupils/students, self-help groups, nursing home residents, business, charity, museum, government department, international agency)?

no

18 Offer financial or other incentives to human participants? no

19 Take place outside of the country in which your campus is located, in full or in part?

no

20 Cause a negative impact on the environment (over and above that of normal daily activity)?

no

21 Involve direct and/or indirect contact with human participants? no

22 Raise any other ethical concerns not covered in this checklist? no

Economy & Finance

2030 French FinTech Scenarios