2012 WESTMINSTER BEST IN SHOW?

Predicting the Next Breed to Become the 2012

Westminster BIS Champion through Various Data

Analytical and Statistical Tools and Techniques

Research Objective: By implementing a three-pronged statistical methodology, the

primary goal for this project is to identify key independent variables, mostly externalities,

which may significantly affect, or influence, the outcome of future winners of the BIS

competition.

Data Analytical Concepts, Techniques, and Applications Used: Ratings Percentage

Index (RPI), Basic Probability (Categorical and Numerical), Predictive, Qualitative and

Quantitative Analyses, Linear and Multiple Regressions, Hypothesis Testing, ANOVA, Chi-

Square Tests and Nonparametric Tests, and Time-Series Forecasting methodologies

“ D E E P W I T H I N T H E P O U N D , A H O U N D W I L L A B O U N D T O C H A L L E N G E R I V A L , F I E N D , A N D F O E ; T O S H O W C A S E S T R U T S ,

D E M E A N O R , A N D T E M P O , B E C O M I N G U N D E N I A B L Y T H E B E S T I N T H E S H O W . ” – M S G

I. Research Thesis, Utility, and Development

II. Historical Synopsis of Westminster Best in Show Competition

III. Timeline of Past Winners

IV. Research Analytics and Statistical Results

V. Conclusion

VI. Q & A

VII. Citations

TABLE OF CONTENTS

R E S E A R C H T H E S I S , U T I L I T Y, A N D D E V E L O P M E N T

Research Objective: By implementing a three-pronged statistical methodology, the primary goal is to identify key independent variables, mostly externalities, which may significantly affect the outcome of future winners of the BIS competition.

Resource Material Developmental Scheme: Statistical data, content, and information are retrieved primarily from three reputable and well-established organization sources: American Kennel Club Association, Westminster Kennel Club, and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Utilizing DCOVA methodology (Description, Collection, Observation, Visualization, and Analysis) as the statistical schematic, the purpose for the various testing procedures is to determine the highest probability level of significance between all dependent and independent variables, systematically filter, process, and factor all dependent variables that are viably pertinent for inclusion of scientifically-preferred potentialities during final selection stages, and to arrive at a sufficiently best choice and most likely outcome.

R E S E A R C H T H E S I S , U T I L I T Y, A N D D E V E L O P M E N T

Data Analytical Concepts, Techniques, and Applications Used: Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), Basic Probability (Categorical and Numerical), Predictive, Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses, Linear and Multiple Regressions, Hypothesis Testing, ANOVA, Chi-Square Tests and Nonparametric Tests, and Time-Series Forecasting methodologies – all including corresponding graphs and charts

Statistical Data Timeline: Categorical and numerical raw data and information collected exclusively from AKC’s top 168 breeds by annual ranking (1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007-’10) and annual total registration (2001-2006) and from historical results (1907-2011) of the Westminster BIS competition. Annual sales and sales-related figures are current.

Basic Assumptions:All breeds are purebred and are certified by various regulatory-approved associations and institutions worldwide, including the two entities for the basis of the report, AKC and Westminster Kennel Club. Pricing and expenditures are established at present market rates and values, which are also supported industry-wide in whole part by approved governing bodies and agencies globally.

H I S T O R I C A L S Y N O P S I S O F W E S T M I N S T E R B E S T I N S H O W C O M P E T I T I O N

• Established as the Westminster Kennel Club, it originated in 1877 at a Manhattan Hotel as a social gathering place for hunting men

• Westminster Best in Show (BIS) competition is the oldest dog show in America

• The event takes place at the venerable, world-renown Madison Square Garden

• The first official competition showcased over 1,200 purebreds from a 170 registered breeds

• The official competition has been held at MSG for 104 years

• In 2010, the event presented 2,500 purebreds from a select group of 168 breed

• The 2010 BIS top dog was a Scottish Deerhound bitch named Hickory

T I M E L I N E O F PA S T B I S W I N N E R S1907

Fox Terrier (Smooth)

1938 Setter (English) 1967 Scottish Terrier 1994 Norwich Terrier

1908Fox Terrier (Smooth)

1939Doberman Pinscher

1968 Lakeland Terrier 1995 Scottish Terrier

1909Fox Terrier (Smooth)

1940Spaniel (Cocker)

Black1969 Skye Terrier 1996 Spaniel (Clumber)

1910Fox Terrier (Smooth)

1941Spaniel (Cocker)

Black1970 Boxer 1997

Standard Schnauzer

1911 Scottish Terrier 1942West Highland White Terrier

1971Spaniel (English

Springer)1998 Norwich Terrier

1912 Airedale Terrier 1943 Poodle (Miniature) 1972Spaniel (English

Springer)1999 Papillon

1913 Bulldog 1944 Welsh Terrier 1973 Poodle (Standard) 2000Spaniel (English

Springer)

1914Old English Sheepdog

1945 Scottish Terrier 1974Pointer (German

Shorthaired)2001 Bichon Frise

1915 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1946 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1975Old English Sheepdog

2002 Poodle (Miniature)

1916 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1947 Boxer 1976 Lakeland Terrier 2003 Kerry Blue Terrier

1917 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1948 Bedlington Terrier 1977 Sealyham Terrier 2004 Newfoundland

1918Bull Terrier

(White)1949 Boxer 1978 Yorkshire Terrier 2005

Pointer (German Shorthaired)

1919 Airedale Terrier 1950 Scottish Terrier 1979Spaniel (Irish

Water)2006

Bull Terrier (Colored)

1920 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1951 Boxer 1980 Siberian Husky 2007Spaniel (English

Springer)

1921Spaniel (Cocker)

Parti1952

Doberman Pinscher

1981 Pug 2008 Beagle (15 Inch)

1922 Airedale Terrier 1953Doberman Pinscher

1982 Pekingese 2009 Spaniel (Sussex)

1924 Sealyham Terrier 1954Spaniel (Cocker)

A.S.C.O.B.1983 Afghan Hound 2010 Scottish Terrier

1925 Pointer 1955 Bulldog 1984 Newfoundland 2011Scottish

Deerhound

1926 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1956 Poodle (Toy) 1985 Scottish Terrier 2012 ?

1927 Sealyham Terrier 1957 Afghan Hound 1986 Pointer    

1928 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1958 Poodle (Standard) 1987German Shepherd

Dog   

1929 Collie (Rough) 1959 Poodle (Miniature) 1988 Pomeranian    

1930 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1960 Pekingese 1989 Doberman Pinscher    

1931 Fox Terrier (Wire) 1961 Poodle (Toy) 1990 Pekingese    

1932 Pointer 1962West Highland White Terrier

1991 Poodle (Standard)    

1933 Airedale Terrier 1963Spaniel (English

Springer)1992 Fox Terrier (Wire)    

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

Westminster Best in Show Performance Resuts

Best in Show Place Winners (Breed Group Identity)

Total Percentage of Overall BIS Placing (per group)

Best in Show All-Around Winners

Best in Show All-Around Winners (% of Total Wins)

American Kennel Club Canine Ranking and Registration

Annual Ranking (1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007-2010)

Average Ranking for the Period

Average Ranking Percentage (Rank 1-168)

Breed Registration (2001-2006)

Total Registration (2001-2006)

Average Registration (2001-2006)

Total Registration Difference ± (2001-2006)

Total Registration Percentage Difference ± (2001-2006)

Current Price Points and Expenditures

Life Expectancy (average yrs.)

Average Sales Price (AKC Criteria)

Minimum Cost of Ownership (Lifetime Cost per Life Expectancy-Average Years)

Minimum Cost of Ownership (Annual Cost Estimate)

Annual Minimum Cost to Average Sales Price (%)

Maximum Cost of Ownership (Lifetime Cost per Life Expectancy- Average Years)

Maximum Cost of Ownership (Annual Cost Estimate)

Annual Maximum Cost to Average Sales Price (#)

Annual Maximum Cost to Average Sales Price (%)

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S TAT I S T I C A L R E S U LT S

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S TAT I S T I C A L R E S U LT S

2010 U.S. Metropolitan Popularity Ranking Coded Matrix - Southeast

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S TAT I S T I C A L R E S U LT S

2010 U.S. Metropolitan Popularity Ranking Coded Matrix - West

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

BREED

Best in Show All-

Around Winners BREED

Best in Show All-

Around Winners BREED

Best in Show All-

Around Winners BREED

Best in Show All-

Around Winners BREED

Best in Show All-

Around Winners

Afghan Hounds 2 Whippets 1 Whippets 1

West Highland

White Terriers 2

Siberian Huskies 1

Scottish Deerhound

s 1 Airedale Terriers 4

Airedale Terriers 4

Wire Fox Terriers 13

Standard Schnauzers 1

Bichons Frises 1

Bedlington Terriers 1

Bedlington Terriers 1 Papillons 1 Collies 1

Bulldogs 2 Bull Terriers 2 Bull

Terriers 2 Pekingese 3

German Shepherd

Dogs 1

Clumber Spaniels 1

Kerry Blue Terriers 1

Kerry Blue

Terriers 1 Pomeranian

s 1 Old English Sheepdogs 2

Cocker Spaniels 4

Lakeland Terriers 2

Lakeland Terriers 2 Pugs 1

Siberian Huskies 1

English Setters 1

Norwich Terriers 2

Norwich Terriers 2

Yorkshire Terriers 1

Standard Schnauzers 1

English Springer Spaniels 6

Scottish Terriers 8

Scottish Terriers 8

West Highland

White Terriers 2 Collies 1

German Shorthaired

Pointers 2 Sealyham Terriers 4

Sealyham Terriers 4

Wire Fox Terriers 13

German Shepherd

Dogs 1 Irish Water Spaniels 1

Skye Terriers 1

Skye Terriers 1 Poodles 9

Pointers 3 Smooth Fox

Terriers 4

Smooth Fox

Terriers 4 Boxers 4 Sussex

Spaniels 1 Welsh

Terriers 1 Welsh

Terriers 1 Doberman Pinschers 4

Beagles 1 Whippets 1 Whippets 1 Newfoundla

nds 2

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

Life Expectancy

(average yrs.)

Average Sales

Price (AKC Criteria)

Minimum Cost of

Ownership (Lifetime Cost per

Life Expectancy-

Average Years)

Minimum Cost of

Ownership (Annual

Cost Estimate)

Annual Minimum Cost to Average

Sales Price (%)

Maximum Cost of

Ownership (Lifetime Cost per

Life Expectancy-

Average Years)

Maximum Cost of

Ownership (Annual

Cost Estimate)

Annual Maximum

Cost to Average

Sales Price (#)

Annual Maximum

Cost to Average

Sales Price (%)

BREED

Best in Show Place Winners (Breed Group Identity)

Total Percentage of Overall BIS Placing (per

group)Best in Show All-Around Winners

Best in Show All-Around Winners (%

of Total Wins)

2010 Ranking

2009 Ranking

2008 Ranking

2007 Ranking

2005 Ranking

2003 Ranking

2000 Ranking

1998 Ranking

Average Ranking

Average Ranking Percentage (Rank 1-168)

2006 Breed Registration

2005 Breed Registration

2004 Breed Registration

2003 Breed Registration

2002 Breed Registration

2001 Breed Registration

Total Registration (2001-2006)

Average Registration (2001-2006)

Total Registration Difference ± (2001-2006)

Total Registration Percentage Difference ±

(2001-2006)

D E P E N D E N T A N D I N D E P E N D E N T V A R I A B L E S C A T E G O R I E S

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

D E S C R I P T I V E A N A L Y S I S T A B L E - K E Y A R E A S O F C O N S I D E R A T I O NTotal Percentage of Overall BIS Placing (per group)

BIS Overall Champions to Total Wins per Group Ratio

Annual Maximum Cost to Average Sales Price (%)

Mean 0.09 Mean 0.326278723 Mean 14.73899097

Standard Error 0.019663842 Standard Error 0.075097742 Standard Error 1.755692177

Median 0.075 Median 0.272412085 Median 14.77098485

Mode 0.06 Mode #N/A Mode #N/A

Standard Deviation 0.048166378 Standard Deviation 0.183951149 Standard Deviation 4.300549979

Sample Variance 0.00232 Sample Variance 0.033838025 Sample Variance 18.49473012

Kurtosis 2.827734839 Kurtosis 1.4205948 Kurtosis 0.218983267

Skewness 1.643011864 Skewness 1.250134803 Skewness -0.717441065

Range 0.13 Range 0.511530857 Range 11.43387939

Minimum 0.05 Minimum 0.138664202 Minimum 7.705864198

Maximum 0.18 Maximum 0.650195059 Maximum 19.13974359

Sum 0.54 Sum 1.957672337 Sum 88.43394582

Count 6 Count 6 Count 6

Largest(1) 0.18 Largest(1) 0.650195059 Largest(1) 19.13974359

Smallest(1) 0.05 Smallest(1) 0.138664202 Smallest(1) 7.705864198

Confidence Level(95.0%)

0.050547514 Confidence Level(95.0%)

0.193044892 Confidence Level(95.0%)

4.513150419

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

C O R R E L A T I O N A N A L Y S I S T A B L E - K E Y A R E A S O F C O N S I D E R A T I O N

Correlation Analysis

Total Percentage of Overall

BIS Placing (per group)

BIS Overall Champions

- Percentage

of Total Wins per

Group

BIS Overall Champions

to Total Wins per

Group Ratio

Average Ranking

Percentage (Rank 1-

168)

Total Registration Percentage Difference ± (2001-2006)

Annual Minimum Cost to Average

Sales Price (%)

Annual Maximum

Cost to Average

Sales Price (%)

Total Percentage of Overall BIS Placing (per group) 1

BIS Overall Champions - Percentage of Total Wins per Group 0.4071189 1

BIS Overall Champions to Total Wins per Group Ratio 0.473127399

-0.522164252 1

Best in Show All-Around Winners (% of Total Wins) 0.454858826 0.991666742

-0.429129651

Average Ranking Percentage (Rank 1-168)

-0.088387473 0.000356056 0.309306084 1

Total Registration Percentage Difference ± (2001-2006)

-0.743295797 0.00081565

-0.665569158 0.118174844 1

Annual Minimum Cost to Average Sales Price (%)

-0.652546871

-0.749365623

-0.077331219

-0.302942229 0.538094802 1

Annual Maximum Cost to Average Sales Price (%)

-0.393967411

-0.795022242 0.206560134

-0.271362159 0.318859867 0.901648929 1

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

V A R I O U S R E S I D U A L S S C A T T E R P L O T S – F I N A L G R O U P

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.538095 R Square 0.289546 Adjusted R Square 0.111933 Standard Error 0.172116 Observations 6

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

V A R I O U S R E S I D U A L S S C A T T E R P L O T S C O N T I N U E D … – F I N A L G R O U P

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.814376604 R Square 0.663209254 Adjusted R Square 0.579011567 Standard Error 0.118503906 Observations 6

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

M U L T I P L E R E G R E S S I O N A N A L Y S I S T A B L E - K E Y A R E A S O F C O N S I D E R A T I O N

Regression Analysis I - Annual Maximum Cost to Average Sales Price (%)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.9287

R Square 0.8625

Adjusted R Square 0.8572

Standard Error 2.4007

Observations 137

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 5 4734.2980 946.8596 164.2906 0.0000

Residual 131 754.9952 5.7633

Total 136 5489.2932

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 1.2525 0.6699 1.8695 0.0638 -0.0728 2.5778

Total Percentage of Overall BIS Placing (per group)

-2.1426 1.1223 -1.9091 0.0584 -4.3628 0.0776

Best in Show All-Around Winners (% of Total Wins)

5.6358 13.8988 0.4055 0.6858 -21.8593 33.1310

Average Ranking Percentage (Rank 1-168)

2.1087 0.8422 2.5036 0.0135 0.4425 3.7748

Total Registration Percentage Difference ± (2001-2006)

-2.3115 2.0226 -1.1428 0.2552 -6.3127 1.6898

Annual Minimum Cost to Average Sales Price (%)

22.6559 0.8463 26.7701 0.0000 20.9817 24.3302

Calculations

b5 through b0 intercepts 22.6559 -2.3115 2.1087 5.63583 -2.142617918

1.25248761

b5 through b0 Standard Error 0.8463 2.0226 0.8422 13.8988 1.122324763 0.66994344

R Square, Standard Error 0.8625 2.4007 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

F, Residual df 164.2906 131 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Regression SS, Residual SS 4734.297975 754.9951912 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

C O V A R I A N C E A N A L Y S I S T A B L E S F O R P O P U L A T I O N S A M P L I N G A N D B R E E D G R O U P S A M P L I N G - K E Y A R E A S O F C O N S I D E R A T I O N

Basenjis Basset Hounds Borzois

Dachshunds

English Foxhoun

ds Harriers

Norwegian

Elkhounds

Rhodesian

Ridgebacks Salukis

Scottish Deerhou

nds Afghan Hounds

Scottish Deerhounds

1544.833333

17163.91667

120.7222222

52848.77778

210.1111111

120.2222222

894.5833333

855.6388889

-103.333

333 420.472

2222

Beagles 594362.

6667 4931576

.917 78168.6

1111 1418684

7.72 43994.0

5556 31610.1

1111 304203.

4167 47051.1

9444 93382.1

6667 36197.3

6111

Whippets -5483

-69641.8

3333

-594.111

1111

-216417.

0556

-852.888

8889

-221.777

7778 -4249

-737.611

1111

-465.333

333

-1151.94

4444

Bull Terriers

Clumber Spaniels Lakeland Terriers

Norwich Terriers

Papillons Sussex Spaniels

Bull Terriers 19.52042

Clumber Spaniels 27.40469 38.532945

Lakeland Terriers 18.71792 26.30683292 17.98054

Norwich Terriers 10.95784 15.37920294 10.51083 6.154686

Papillons 22.83003 32.07241054 21.90946 12.81477 26.74682

Sussex Spaniels 27.65886 38.89631749 26.56139 15.523 32.37415 39.26762

R E S E A R C H A N A LY T I C S A N D S T A T I S T I C A L R E S U L T S

T I M E S E R I E S S C A T T E R P L O T S F O R F I N A L F I V E S A M P L I N G : F O R E C A S T T O 2 0 1 2

C O N C L U S I O N

…And the Westminster Best In Show Competition Top Dog for 2012 is ...

…From the Terrier Group, Next Year’s Crown will be Awarded to the Bull Terrier.Congratulations!!!!

Q & A

R E F E R E N C E S

• All photos courtesy of American Kennel Club and Google Images

• Westminster Kennel Club (2011). The Westminster Kennel Club. Retrieved February 10, 2011, from http://www.westminsterkennelclub.org

• American Kennel Club Gazette (1995- ). The Official Journal for Sport of Purebred Dogs. New York: American Kennel Club

• PuppyFinder.com© (2001-2008). Puppy Finder: Breed Locator. Retrieved February 10, 2011, from http://www.puppyfinder.com/AboutUs.php

• U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics (2010- ).Databases, Tables, and Calculators by Subject. Retrieved February 10, 2011, from http://www.bls.gov/data