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Workforce Planning Workforce Planning StudyStudy
Doug LeonardDoug LeonardSenior EconomistSenior Economist
Wyoming Department of Wyoming Department of EmploymentEmployment
Research & PlanningResearch & PlanningPO Box 2760PO Box 2760
Casper, WY 82602Casper, WY 82602(307) 473-3811(307) 473-3811
[email protected]@state.wy.us
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Who We Are & What We DoWho We Are & What We Do
We We compile, analyze and disseminatecompile, analyze and disseminate Wyoming employment and wage dataWyoming employment and wage data Analyze labor turnoverAnalyze labor turnover Produce employment & occupation forecastsProduce employment & occupation forecasts Evaluate programs and policiesEvaluate programs and policies Economic impact analysesEconomic impact analyses Custom surveys (e.g., community colleges, Custom surveys (e.g., community colleges,
employer provided benefits)employer provided benefits) We have access to statewide (including state We have access to statewide (including state
government) worker wage information from government) worker wage information from 1992- present1992- present
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Examples of state Examples of state government employee aging government employee aging
and turnover using wage dataand turnover using wage data
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State government workforce is State government workforce is agingaging
Age Trends in Wyoming State Government, Employees 55 or Older
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
Num
ber
of E
mplo
yee
s
55 or olderFive Year Projection
Number more than doubled in
nine years
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Labor flows: Labor flows: Workers 55 or olderWorkers 55 or older
Source of Hires and Destination of Exits for State Government Among Employees 55 or Older, Four Quarter Moving Average
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1993Q
1
1993Q
3
1994Q
1
1994Q
3
1995Q
1
1995Q
3
1996Q
1
1996Q
3
1997Q
1
1997Q
3
1998Q
1
1998Q
3
1999Q
1
1999Q
3
2000Q
1
2000Q
3
2001Q
1
2001Q
3
2002Q
1
2002Q
3
2003Q
1
2003Q
3
2004Q
1
2004Q
3
2005Q
1
Exit
s H
ires
Wyo State Gov. Source Wyo Other Gov. Source Wyo Private Source Wyo Resident Source
MOU States Source Unknown Source Wyo State Gov. Dest. Wyo Other Gov. Dest.
Wyo Private Dest. Wyo Resident Dest MOU States Dest. Unknown Dest.
Net Flow
Early Retirement Buyout
Hires: Where did they come from?
Exits: Where did they go?
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Labor flows:Labor flows:Workers <55 years oldWorkers <55 years old
Source of Hires and Destination of Exits for State Government Among Employees Less Than 55 Years Old, Four Quarter Moving Average
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2000
Q4
2001
Q1
2001
Q2
2001
Q3
2001
Q4
2002
Q1
2002
Q2
2002
Q3
2002
Q4
2003
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
Exit
s H
ires
Wyo State Gov. Source Wyo Other Gov. Source Wyo Private Source Wyo Resident SourceMOU States Source Unknown Source Wyo State Gov. Dest. Wyo Other Gov. Dest.Wyo Private Dest. Wyo Resident Dest. MOU States Dest. Unknown Dest.Net Flow
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Why did we do this study Why did we do this study (why should you)?(why should you)?
Large portion of state employee labor pool Large portion of state employee labor pool nearing retirement – DOE older than most nearing retirement – DOE older than most agenciesagencies
Wage data are useful but…Wage data are useful but… Can we transfer organizational knowledge?Can we transfer organizational knowledge? Why do employees leave DOE (other than Why do employees leave DOE (other than
retirement)?retirement)? What are employee needs with regard to work?What are employee needs with regard to work? How do employees view the work environment?How do employees view the work environment? How likely are employees to leave?How likely are employees to leave?
Administrative data + questionnaireAdministrative data + questionnaire
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Data SourcesData SourcesDOE
employee master file
DOE Employee
Questionnaire
Statewide employer & worker wage files
Workforce Planning Study
Driver license file
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How we did it…How we did it…
Confidential control numbersConfidential control numbers Only one staff member had Only one staff member had
complete accesscomplete access Questionnaire testQuestionnaire test Multiple mailings during Multiple mailings during
September - October 2006September - October 2006 Follow-up telephone callsFollow-up telephone calls Eight weeks to complete Eight weeks to complete
preliminarypreliminary analysis – response analysis – response rate 80%+rate 80%+ A cautionary note on response A cautionary note on response
rates…rates…
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What we found…What we found…
32 persons exit from DOE each year – 5 32 persons exit from DOE each year – 5 obtain employment in another state obtain employment in another state agency (1992Q1 – 2006Q1)agency (1992Q1 – 2006Q1)
Agency goals mesh well with Agency goals mesh well with individuals’ goals (high commitment/low individuals’ goals (high commitment/low role conflict)role conflict)
One-third of workers willing to return to One-third of workers willing to return to DOE after retirement as a contractorDOE after retirement as a contractor
20% of workers willing to return after 20% of workers willing to return after retirement in another position or agencyretirement in another position or agency
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What we found…What we found…
Management or career advancement Management or career advancement training most important to workers training most important to workers <44 years of age<44 years of age
Occupations of concern...Occupations of concern... Employees were the least satisfied Employees were the least satisfied
with compensationwith compensation 70% of DOE employees leaving in 12 70% of DOE employees leaving in 12
months are female and 58.9% have months are female and 58.9% have comparatively low wagescomparatively low wages
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What we found…What we found…
Willingness to train Willingness to train other employeesother employees
““More respect from More respect from management”management”
“…“…speak our minds speak our minds without fear of without fear of reprisal.”reprisal.”
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Future OptionsFuture Options
Monitor variables over Monitor variables over time – satisfaction is time – satisfaction is time and mood time and mood dependentdependent
Better detail is achieved Better detail is achieved when the data are when the data are combined across combined across agenciesagencies
Combine questionnaire Combine questionnaire results with results with administrative data administrative data
Can focus more on Can focus more on controllablecontrollable factors factors
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How long does it take?How long does it take?
10 – 12 weeks10 – 12 weeks Completion time dependent Completion time dependent
upon:upon: Number of Number of
agencies/employees available agencies/employees available for analysisfor analysis
Address qualityAddress quality Availability of standardized Availability of standardized
information and MOU from information and MOU from other agenciesother agencies
We are only as fast as the We are only as fast as the slowestslowest agency agency
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Coming up next…Coming up next…
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