W. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanW. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanInternational Institute of Theoretical and Applied International Institute of Theoretical and Applied
PhysicsPhysicsIowa State UniversityIowa State University
(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)
Project to Intercompare Regional Project to Intercompare Regional Climate SimulationsClimate Simulations
(PIRCS):(PIRCS):Lessons and Suggestions for an Lessons and Suggestions for an
Asian RMIPAsian RMIP
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
PIRCS Participating ModelsPIRCS Participating Models• Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)
• Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)
• NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)
• NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)
• CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)
• Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)
• Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)
• Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)
• Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)
• SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)
• NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)
• ETH (D. Luethi)ETH (D. Luethi)
• Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)
• Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)
• Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)
PIRCS MissionPIRCS Mission
Evaluate regional climate Evaluate regional climate simulation by mesoscale models, simulation by mesoscale models, using a using a common frameworkcommon framework
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
Mesoscale Targets are Important!Mesoscale Targets are Important!
• Mesoscale Convective SystemsMesoscale Convective Systems
• Low-Level JetsLow-Level Jets
• Regional OrographyRegional Orography
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
Further MotivationFurther Motivation
GCIP/G-NEPGCIP/G-NEP AgriculturalAgricultural Water cycle Water cycle
variabilityvariability Data availabilityData availability Strong signalStrong signal
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
Summer 1988 - Drought
Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA
Jet Stream
Cool &Damp
Weak & Dry Southerly Flow
Heat Wave
Heat Wave
Summer 1993 - Flood
Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA
Jet StreamCool
Warm & Moist Southerly Flow
FLood
Model Domains
500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis
1988
500 hPa RMSD
0
20
40
60
80
100
136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196
Julian Day
RegCM2RAMSDARLAMHIRHAMScripps RSMNCEP RSMMM5-BATS
Spatially Averaged RMSD 500 hPa Geopotential Height1 June - 31 July 1993
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1-Jun 11-Jun 21-Jun 1-Jul 11-Jul 21-Jul 31-Jul
Date
RMSD (m)
DARLAM RSM - ScrippsHIRHAM MM5-BATSRSM-NCEP RegCM2Model Mean
500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis
1993
500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)
~ Reanalysis ~~ Reanalysis ~
500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)
~ PIRCS Ensemble ~~ PIRCS Ensemble ~
LLJ figures
Precipitation RegionsPrecipitation Regions
UpperMiss.
Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysis
Precipitation over Upper Mississippi River Basin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196
Julian Day
Observed
MM5-BATS
RSM-Scripps
RSM-NCEP
DARLAM
HIRHAM
RegCM2
RAMS
Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysis
Precipitation over Upper Mississippi River Basin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196
Julian Day
Observed
MM5-BATS
RSM-Scripps
RSM-NCEP
DARLAM
HIRHAM
RegCM2
RAMS
Mesoscale circ. & precip. Figures - day 160
Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJune 1988June 1988
[mm/d][mm/d]
CompositeComposite
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJuly 1993July 1993
[mm/d][mm/d]-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
CompositeComposite
1993 Contours: e ( = 6 K)Shaded: Precip > 300 mm
Tmin/max figures
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
OBSERVED
LatentSensibleInc. SW
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NCEP RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
SCRIPPS RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
Hour
REGCM2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
MM5-BATS
Hour
CLIMRAMS
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
ISU RAMS
Hour
HIRHAM DARLAM
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
OBSERVED
LatentSensibleInc. SW
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NCEP RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
SCRIPPS RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
Hour
REGCM2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
MM5-BATS
Hour
CLIMRAMS
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
ISU RAMS
Hour
HIRHAM DARLAM
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
OBSERVED
LatentSensibleInc. SW
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
NCEP RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
SCRIPPS RSM
[W-m
-2 ]
Hour
REGCM2
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
MM5-BATS
Hour
CLIMRAMS
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
ISU RAMS
Hour
HIRHAM DARLAM
Soil moisture spin-up: problem?
Lessons
• Ensembles are important– Reveal common problemsReveal common problems– Reveal unique problemsReveal unique problems– No model is “best”No model is “best”
• Distinction between problems of – Lateral forcing/dynamics (common)Lateral forcing/dynamics (common)– Surface processes (unique)Surface processes (unique)
Lessons
• Interannual climate variation– Simulated in large-scale dynamics– Muted in precipitation response
Lessons
Future Plans
• Same grid, multi-year– More truly climate simulation– Reduce initial conditions problem
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
Future Plans
• Same grid, multi-year– More truly climate simulation– Reduce initial conditions problem
• PIRCS 2: South America - LBA– ENSO– Atmospheric heat source– Moisture inflow from Atlantic Ocean– Low-Level Jet?– Significant observational data bases
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
Suggestions for Asian RMIP(1) Coordinate archive convections with
PIRCS-2 (under development)
- promote wider access/analysis
- sharing of diagnostic tools
- sharing of tools to transform output to standard format
(2) Use NetCDF
(3) Establish common file naming conventions
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
Suggestions for Asian RMIP
(4) Other variables?
PIRCS 2 includes (among others): CAPE (3 hr) ISCCP clouds (3 hr) OLR (3 hr) 500 hPa vertical motion (3 hr) Precipitable water (3 hr) diabatic heating (monthly)
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)
Proposal for Standard Diagnostics and Data
Interchange Modules in PIRCSJay Larson
Mathematics and Computer Science Division / Argonne National
Laboratory
www.mcs.anl.gov/~larson
An Intercomparison Wish List
Common utilities for:• Writing and re-reading the agreed-upon
output format• Reading / interpolating model input data
format• Computation of diagnostic fields• Quality control• Visualization and analysis tools that work with
the output format
Schematic for PIRCS Diagnostics and Output Application Program:
• We supply application code, complete with time-stepping, filename generation, output module, and library routine calls
• User supplies module to read the model’s history files, returning the model fields required by the PIRCS application
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
• Primary Funding: Primary Funding:
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)• Guidance/Support: Guidance/Support:
Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay, Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay,
Filippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP groupFilippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP group• Special Thanks: Special Thanks:
Participating ModelersParticipating Modelers
Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)