Voting BehaviorVoting BehaviorPOLS 21: The American Political POLS 21: The American Political
SystemSystem““Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” never lost.”
——John AdamsJohn Adams
Key Influences on Voting Key Influences on Voting BehaviorBehavior
Social identity (e.g., race, gender, Social identity (e.g., race, gender, religion)religion)
Partisan identificationPartisan identification Issue positionsIssue positions Candidate evaluationsCandidate evaluations
Obama and Romney's
War for Women's
VotesWhite Guys vs. Obama
New Obama Ad: Conservative Women Should Vote Democrat
Because Republicans Want to Ban Abortion & Contraception
Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men
Mitt Romney’s
sinking Latino poll
numbers
Is Obama Taking Black Vote for Granted?
Mitt Romney Is Capturing Zero Percent
Of The Black Vote, According To New Poll
Beyond God and
Guns: Why the
GOP May Lose the
White Working
Class
Examples…Examples…
African-AmericanAfrican-American Working classWorking class Single MomSingle Mom College studentCollege student RepublicanRepublican EnvironmentalistEnvironmentalist CatholicCatholic Senior CitizenSenior Citizen
These identities are often
ACTIVATED by political parties
and their candidates.
Vote Choice for President by Vote Choice for President by GenderGender
19601964
19681972
19761980
19841988
19921996
20002004
20080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percent voting for Democratic candidate
Men Women
Source: National Election Studies, various years.
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percent responding
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."
Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Women, 1952-2008Women, 1952-2008
Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Men, 1952-2008Men, 1952-2008
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percent responding
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."
“Which political party do you thinkwould do a better job?”
ISSUE MEN WOMEN
Handling the nation’s economy R by 8% points D by 10% points
Handling foreign affairs R by 20% points D by 2% points
Making health care more affordable
D by 26% points D by 42% points
Reforming the welfare system R by 11% points D by 17% points
Handling the problem of poverty
D by 23% points D by 34% points
Handling the budget deficit R by 14% points D by 2% points
Handling the problem of pollution
and the environment
D by 32% points D by 33% points
Dealing with the crime problem R by 12% points D by 5% points
Party Strengths Among Male Party Strengths Among Male and Female Votersand Female Voters
Vote for President by Race, 1952-Vote for President by Race, 1952-20082008
19521956
19601964
19681972
19761980
19841988
19921996
20002004
20080
20
40
60
80
100
Percent voting for Democratic candidate
White
Black
Source: National Election Study, various years
African-Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates
Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008
Did women support Sarah Palin?
Did blacks support Barack Obama?
Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008
Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008
"Oprah
is a
Traito
r!!!"
"For the first time in history we actually have a chance at putting a woman in the white house and Oprah backs the black MAN. She's choosing her race over her gender – hypocrisy at its finest!!”
What happens when social identities collide?
"If the Hispanic voting bloc becomes as committed to the Democrats as
the African-American voting bloc has in the past, why, we're in trouble as a
party and, I think, as a nation."
—Mitt Romney, in a secretly recorded campaign video, speaking with
wealthy donors
Does partisanship bias our political
perceptions?
Partisan IdentificationPartisan Identification
Partisanship is often learned early in Partisanship is often learned early in life from our parents through a process life from our parents through a process of of socializationsocialization..
It is a It is a psychologicalpsychological attachment that is attachment that is both affective and cognitive in nature.both affective and cognitive in nature.
It acts as a filter, or It acts as a filter, or perceptual screenperceptual screen—a framework through which we —a framework through which we experience and understand politics.experience and understand politics.
Which issues matter most?Which issues matter most?
"There are many important issues in this presidential campaign. When it comes to deciding for whom you will vote for president, which one of the following is the single most important issue in deciding for whom you will vote? The economy. Social issues and values. Social Security and Medicare. Health care. The federal deficit. Foreign policy and the Middle East. Terrorism." If "all": "Well, if you had to choose the most important issue, which would you choose?"
The economy 46%Social issues and values 15Social Security and Medicare 12Health care 10The federal deficit 7Foreign policy and the Middle East 6Terrorism 1None/Other (vol.) 1Unsure 1
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Sept. 26-30, 2012. N=832 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.4.
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Growth rate o f rea l per capita GNP in the 2nd and 3rd quarters o f the election year
0 .3
0 .4
0 .5
0 .6
Incumbent share of the two-party vo te
1932
1936
1980
1920
1908
1992
Presidential Voting Presidential Voting and Economic Growthand Economic Growth
Retrospective voting on the
economy provides an
information short-cut.
2008
Retrospective (economic results)Retrospective (economic results)
vs. vs.
Prospective (policy content)Prospective (policy content)
What is the causal What is the causal mechanism?mechanism?
Perceived Economic Perceived Economic Conditions, 1980-2008Conditions, 1980-2008
Source: National Election Study, various years.
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent responding "gotten worse"
Condition of nation's economy Respondent's financial situation
Perceptions of the economy mattered in 1992, more than reality.
Candidate EvaluationsCandidate Evaluations
In the In the traitstraits they they convey (e.g., honesty, convey (e.g., honesty, trustworthiness, trustworthiness, intelligence);intelligence);
In the In the feelingsfeelings they they evoke (e.g., anger, evoke (e.g., anger, hope, pride, fear);hope, pride, fear);
There is at least one enduring truth in the study of There is at least one enduring truth in the study of voting behavior—citizens vote in overwhelming voting behavior—citizens vote in overwhelming numbers for the presidential candidate they numbers for the presidential candidate they likelike the the most. Candidates are important in at least two waysmost. Candidates are important in at least two ways——
1960 Kennedy-Nixon 1960 Kennedy-Nixon DebateDebate
The people who watched the debate on TV felt that Kennedy had won, while those who listened on the radio thought that Nixon had won.