Usage of Demographical Population Trends and Statistics in Public Policy in Kosovo
Fitore Hyseni
Honors ProjectApril 26, 2013
Supervisor: Prof. Shpend AhmetiAdviser: Dr. Michael WaschakAdviser: Prof. Edmond Muhaxheri
Outline
▪ Problem Statement
▪ Background of the Research
▪ Research Question
▪ Methodology
▪ Main Findings
▪ Conclusion
▪ Further Work
▪ Recommendations
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
Problem Statement
▪ This paper investigates the usage of statistical data and demographical population trends in the process of policy formulation by the decision makers in Kosovo.
▪ On a larger scale, this paper aims to explore whether policy makers in Kosovo are following the practice of evidence-based policy making, and if not, what are the reasons behind it.
▪ It seeks to investigate whether there are any challenges to evidence-based policy making, and, based on those, make recommendations..
▪ Motivation for this paper came from the fact that formulation of policies based on evidence has proven to be a success in the region and has played a remarkable role in developing countries.
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BackgroundWHAT IS EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
Evidence-based Policy(EBP) is a “discourse or set of methods which informs the policy process, rather than aiming to directly affect the eventual goals of the policy.”
The purpose of EBP is to promote rational policy making and analysis.
Quantitative information e.g.
statistics, modeling, performance
measures
Descriptive evidence e.g.
expert opinion
Experimental evidence e.g.
randomized trials, quasi experimental
studies
Existing evidence e.g. meta analyses,
systematic reviews, confirmed theories
Qualitative evidence e.g. qualitative
research, observational studies
Evidence
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Figure 1: Components of the evidence base; Source: Adapted from AbouZahr (2011)
Background Con’tIMPORTANCE OF EVIDENCE BASED POLICY MAKING
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It is crucial in formulating credible and functional policies.
It helps in monitoring and evaluating policies.
It promotes democracy through increased transparency and accountability.
Example of DevInfo
Background Con’tWHY ARE POLICIES SOMETIMES NOT BASED ON EVIDENCE?
▪ EBP is affected by politics, especially political actors, whose interests have an impact on policy formulation.
▪ Different interests followed by investigators and those who generate data, on the one hand, and policy and decision makers, on the other.
Background Con’tTHE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN KOSOVO
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
1.3% 4.9%
68.9%
24.9%
Enrolment in 2012/2013Pre-school Pre-primaryPrimary and lower-secondary Upper-secondary
• Lack of demand for data from the governmental organizations
• Quality, reliability, and coverage of the data are still below the EU standards
• Flawed data collection methods and a lack of information sharing between institutions.
• Policies are more based on personal and anecdotal beliefs rather than facts
Figure 2: Enrolment in the Academic Year 2012/2013; Source: Adapted from EMIS 2012-2013
Research Questions
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
Do policy makers in Kosovo use statistics and demographical population trends (evidence) in policy making?
What are the main challenges in the evidence-based policy making process in Kosovo?
Hypotheses of the Research
Ha: Decision makers in Kosovo do not base policies on evidence (such statistics and demographic trends).
Ho: There is no relationship between evidence and policy making.
Ha: The main challenges to evidence-based policy making in Kosovo are political influence, lack of coordination and cooperation among governmental agencies (evidence providers and decision makers), lack of resources, and lack of independent and reliable data.
Ho: There is no relationship between political influence, lack of coordination and cooperation among governmental agencies (evidence providers and decision makers), lack of resources, and lack of independent and reliable data and evidence-based policy making.
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Methodology
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Triangulation method:
1. Documentary analysis
2. Questionnaires
3. Interviews (expert panel study)
Methodology DOCUMENTARY ANALYSIS
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▪ Reports on enrolment rates of VET schools- Kosovo Agency of Statistics and Ministry of Education and Science
▪ Reports on enrolment rates in University of Prishtina - Kosovo Agency of Statistics
▪ Schmidt et al., 2012, Sida, Evaluation of Co-operation with the Statistical Office of Kosovo
▪ Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)-Mission in Kosovo, 2012, Tracking School Dropouts and Non-attendance in Kosovo.
▪ ETF Kosovo Team, 2012, Torino Process 2012 Kosovo.,
Methodology Con’tQUESTIONNAIRES
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▪ A small-scale questionnaire was conducted with 8 evidence providers and decision makers
▪ Open-ended and close-ended questions
Methodology Con’tINTERVIEWS
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▪ Semi-structured interviews
▪ 8 decision makers and evidence providers
▪ The purpose of the interviews was to see whether decision makers and evidence providers perceive policies as based on evidence and what they consider to be the main challenges in adopting evidence-based policy making in governmental agencies.
Name of the organization
GAP NDI KPI KEC Riinvest MEST MEST KAS
Name of interviewee
Jeton Mehmeti
Avni Zuka
Ismet Potera
Dukagjin
Pupovci
Alban Hashani
Enver Mekolli
- -
Methods of Analysis
▪ Qualitative Research Analysis
▪ Meta-analysis
Main Findings of the ResearchVET SCHOOLS
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Table 2: Number of students enrolled in Primary Education (2004-2012); Source: MEST/EMIS
2010/2011
Total Gymnasiums VET Schools
108,503 48,991 59,512
Drop-out numbers in upper-secondary schools
Total Gymnasiums VET schools
3.2 % 16 % 84 %
Main FindingsCONSTRUCITON OF SCHOOLS
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2004
/200
5
2005
/200
6
2006
/200
7
2007
/200
8
2008
/200
9
2009
/201
0
2010
/201
1
2011
/201
2
2012
/201
3260,000270,000280,000290,000300,000310,000320,000330,000340,000
Academic year
Nu
mb
er
of
stu
de
nts
Region of Birth
In-migrants
Out-migrants
Net-migrants
Migrated in last 5
years
Migrated out last 5
years
Net migrants 1998-2003
Total net migrants
Gjakove 4.9 14.3 -9.4 0.5 2.6 -2.1 -11.5
Gjilan 4.7 14.1 -9.4 1 0.7 0.3 -9.1
Mitrovica 9.6 16.3 -6.7 0.9 7.1 -6.2 -12.9
Peja 16 8.2 7.8 3.7 0.4 3.3 11.1Prizren 6.4 11.8 -5.4 2 1.5 0.5 -4.9
Prishtine 36.6 14.1 22.5 8.1 1.1 7 29.5
Ferizaj 10.6 10 0.6 1 3.8 -2.8 -2.2
Figure 4: Participation of children in Primary Education; Source: MEST/EMIS
Table 3: Lifetime Migrants and Recent Migrants (1998-2003) by Region in Thousands; Source: KAS
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Figure 5: Trend of school constructions (2001-2012; Source: Kosovo Agency of Statistics
“In Kosovo, there are many schools build in rural areas in the last 5-6 years that are half-empty, since no one cared to gather information about how many children are in that area and if there is a need for such building.”
2001
/200
2
2002
/200
3
2003
/200
4
2004
/200
5
2005
/200
6
2006
/200
7
2007
/200
8
2008
/200
9
2009
/201
0
2010
/201
1
2011
/201
2900
940
980
1020
1060
Academic year
Nu
mb
er o
f sc
ho
ols
Main Findings Con’tENROLMENT RATES IN THE UNIVERSITY OF PRISHTINA
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Figure 1.6: Student to professor ratio in UP (2002-2012) and forecast trendline; Source: Kosovo Agency of Statistics
2002
/200
3
2003
/200
4
2004
/200
5
2005
/200
6
2006
/200
7
2007
/200
8
2008
/200
9
2009
/201
0
2010
/201
1
2011
/201
20
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Student to Professor Ratio
Ratio
Linear (Ratio)
Academic year
Rat
io
One respondent, said that “…in Kosovo are six public universities when there are only 1336 Doctors of Science and more than 100,000 students. So, instead of investing in quality, they aim in increasing the enrollment rate that already has exceeded country’s capabilities.”
Evidence-Based Policy Making In Kosovo
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
▪ 7 out of 8 interviewees declared that policies formulated by the governmental organization in Kosovo are not always based on evidence
▪ Most of the actors declared that the Government and the Parliament understand the importance of EBP and base their policies in evidence to some extent. Nonetheless, there are some based on assumptions and anecdotal evidence.
▪ With regards to education policy making, interviewees in general were not satisfied. They stated that policies are not entirely based on evidence but rather are affected by political interests and are based on anecdotal evidence and lack long-term vision. Nevertheless, they acknowledged that it is better than in other fields and that MEST is trying and cares about gathering evidence and observing the current situation.
Main Challenges
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Lack of demographic data
Nonuse of the available tools
Lack of coordination
Lack of professionalism
Lack of resources
Lack of political will
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency
Ch
alle
ng
es
Main Challenges Con’t▪ According to MEST (EMIS), in the academic year 2011/2012 out of 106,829
students enrolled in upper-secondary schools
▪ 59633 or 55.8 % were enrolled in VET schools while 47196 or 44.2 % in gymnasiums.
▪ While the other source, Kosovo Agency of Statistics, states that in the academic year 2011/2012 109,513 students were enrolled in upper-secondary schools, out of which students in VET schools make up 54.8% (59,979)
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Conclusion
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
Evidence-based policy making is exception rather than the rule in policy making processes in Kosovo.
The main challenges to evidence-based policy making identified in the findings include: lack of experience and professionals, lack of political will, and lack of reliable data.
Limitations
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1. There is a difference between data gathered through questionnaires and document analysis and those gathered through interviews.
2. Interviewees’ perceptions and beliefs do not necessarily represent those of the organization/institution to which they belong.
3. This is a representative sample
4. All the interpretations, possible generalizations, mistakes, and conclusions made in this project are sole responsibility of the researcher.
Further Studies
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
Educa
tion
Energ
y
Labo
r Mar
ket
Agricu
lture
Econo
mic
rese
arch
Loca
l Gov
ernm
ent
Health
Privat
e Sec
tor D
evelo
pmen
t
Public
Pro
cure
men
t
Corpo
rate
Gov
erna
nce
Trans
port
Enviro
nmen
t0
2
4
6 5
32 2 2
1 1 1 1 10 0
Research Contribution by Field of Research
Series1
Field
Res
po
nse
s
Social
relev
ance
Resea
rch
inter
ests
Organ
izatio
n's m
ission
Donor
's Pre
fere
nce
Gover
nmen
tal a
genc
ies' p
refe
renc
es0
1.5
3
4.5
4 2 2 2 2
Factors that impact the choice of topics
Series1
Factors
Res
po
nse
s
Recommendations
Fitore Hyseni Honors Project
▪ Institutionalize evidence-based policy making
▪ Expand the scope coverage of other fields
▪ Encourage exchange of good practices of evidence-based policy making with neighboring countries
▪ Increase transparency in policy and decision making
▪ Increase cooperation between evidence providers
▪ Encourage cooperation and feedback between decision makers and evidence providers within specific fields (e.g. education)
▪ Improve data-collection systems and methods of official statistics
▪ Encourage evidence providers to make the data available
Thank you for you attention!
Questions?