• Increasing chatter among state forecasters about lackluster revenue trends for both withholding and sales taxes
• Is there an actual economic slowdown or are the forecasts too high, thus creating potential budget issues due to forecast errors?
• How does growth today compare to the housing boom?
3Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
tl;dr summary
• Most metros, states and regions are adding jobs today at least as fast as during housing boom• Average wage growth lower everywhere except East North Central
and Pacific• Thus, aggregate wage growth today on par with housing boom
• Growth being driven by biggest metro areas• Most large metros growing faster today than during housing boom• Spread between big city growth and rural areas largest seen since
1990 recession and mid-80s commodity bust
• Oil patch slowdown and job losses are real• Impacts big cities like Houston and Oklahoma City in addition to
rural counties in heartland• West North Central and West South Central job growth slowing
down
• All other regions stable or accelerating job growth
4
Census DivisionsJobs, Average Wages and Aggregate Wages
5Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
New EnglandCT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT
6Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Middle AtlanticNJ, NY, PA
7Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
East North CentralIL, IN, MI, OH, WI
8Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
West North CentralIA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
9Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
South AtlanticDC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV
10Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
East South CentralAL, KY, MS, TN
11Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
West South CentralAR, LA, OK, TX
12Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
MountainAZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
13Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
PacificAK, CA, HI, OR, WA
14Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
15Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
16
Metro vs NonmetroJob Growth by Metro Size
17Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Big Cities Continue to Drive Growth
18Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Growth Rates Diverging
19Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Haven’t Seen This Spread In Quite Some Time
20Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Nonmetro Slowdown is Oil Patch
21
Largest MetrosJob Growth
22Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Most big metrosgrowing fastertoday than duringhousing boom
23Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
There is an Oil Patch Slowdown
24Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Impact Seems Concentrated
25Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Some Acceleration Elsewhere Helping Make Up the Gap
26Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 1
27Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 2
28Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
But Most Big Metros Seeing Stable Growth, Pt 3
29
Housing Bust Metros50 Worst Housing Bubble and Bust MSAs, All Sizes