US Army Corps of Engineers
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STEP 2: INVENTORY AND FORECASTPlanning Principles & Procedures – FY 11
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Objectives
Define inventory and forecast
Describe data collection process and requirements
Discuss forecasting techniques
Identify most important output of Step 2
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Why Inventory?
Describe historic and existing conditions
Refine and expand problems and opportunities
Define future without project condition
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How to Inventory
Information Gathering Strategy
Develop and describe in Project Management Plan (PMP)
Re-evaluate
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Information Gathering Strategy
Geographic Area
Relevancy
Quantity
Accuracy
Timing
Period of time
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Examples of Data Used in Planning
Foundation characteristics InfrastructureGeologic formations MineralsLand classifications Drainage patternsAquifer characteristics YieldsRain gauge data Precipitation recordsEvaporation rates Gauging stations locationsStream flow records Sediment loadsGroundwater quality Surface water qualityFlora and fauna Historic structuresEndangered species Significant resourcesHabitat types PopulationLand uses Structure valuesStructure elevations Income distributionEmployment Commodity demand Stakeholders Commodity movementsVessel fleet characteristics
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Example Data Flood Management Study
Data Needed Purpose Suggested Sources
Water surface elevations by flood frequency
Define floodplain.
Estimate damages/benefits.
Formulate plans.
Hydrologic/hydraulic analyses
Property at risk of flooding Estimate damages/benefits.
Formulate plans.
Hydrologic/hydraulic analyses.
Flooded area maps.
Structure/Content values Estimate damages/benefits.
Formulate plans
Field surveys.
Commercial data (Marshall & Swift, others)
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Example Data Flood Risk Management Study (Cont.)
Data Needed Purpose Suggested Sources
Depth-damage curves Estimate damages/benefits.
Generic curves.
Site specific surveys.
Ecological resources impacted by plans
Develop mitigation measures.
Published data.
Resource agencies.
Field surveys.
Unit costs Cost estimates MCACES.
Commercial sources.
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Data Collection
Potential sources:►Primary
• From original research
►Secondary
• Collected by others
• Internet
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Planners Website
http://usace.army.mil/CECW/PlanningCOP/Pages/psa.aspx
Planner's Study Aids:Coastal Storm Damage Reduction Ecosystem Restoration Flood Risk Management Hydropower Navigation Recreation Water Supply/Water Quality Watershed Formulation and Evaluation
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For Additional Information on Available Data
Flood Risk Management► Stuart A. Davis, IWR► Eric Thaut, SPD
Deep-Draft/Inland Navigation► Ian Mathis, IWR► Navigation Data Center, IWR► Wesley Walker, LRD► Bernard Moseby, SAM
Ecosystem Restoration► Jodi Staebell, MVR
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Criteria to Identify Data Needed
Required► Laws► Policies► Regulations
Nice to Know
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Helpful or Harmful?
Recent reports Checklists “Typical” study Available information Templates
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COLUMN 1
COLUMN 2
COLUMN 3
COLUMN 4
COLUMN 5
AGE
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
COLUMN 3
COLUMN 4
COLUMN 5
AGE
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
COLUMN 5
AGE
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4 COLUMN 5
AGE
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
AGE
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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Inventory and Forecast
Four Conditions:► Existing condition.► Historic condition.► Future without condition.► Future with condition.
Target
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE EXISTING CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE
HISTORIC CONDITION
EXISTING CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE
HISTORIC CONDITION
EXISTING CONDITION
FUTURE WITHOUT
CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE
HISTORIC CONDITION
EXISTING CONDITION
FUTURE WITHOUT
CONDITION
FUTURE WITH
CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE
TARGET
HISTORIC CONDITION
EXISTING CONDITION
FUTURE WITHOUT
CONDITION
FUTURE WITH
CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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Inventory and Forecast
Four Conditions:► Existing condition.► Historic condition.► Future without condition.► Future with condition.
Target. Three types of comparisons:
► With-and-without analysis.► Before-and-after analysis.► Gap analysis.
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE
TARGET
HISTORIC CONDITION
EXISTING CONDITION
FUTURE WITHOUT
CONDITION
FUTURE WITH
CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
WITH AND WITHOUT ANALYSIS
HOME ADDRESS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE TARGET
HISTORIC CONDITION
EXISTING CONDITION
FUTURE WITHOUT CONDITION
FUTURE WITH CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
WITH AND WITHOUT ANALYSIS
HOME ADDRESS
BEFORE AND…
…AFTER ANALYSIS
CAR MODEL
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COLUMN 1
DREAM
COLUMN 2
2001 COLUMN 3
2011 COLUMN 4
2021 COLUMN 5
$2021$
AGE
TARGET
HISTORIC CONDITION
EXISTING CONDITION
FUTURE WITHOUT
CONDITION
FUTURE WITH
CONDITION
FIRST NAME
LAST NAME
HAIR COLOR
JOB TITLE
WITH AND WITHOUT ANALYSIS
HOME ADDRESS
BEFORE AND…
…AFTER ANALYSIS
CAR MODEL
GAP… …ANALYSIS
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Inventory and Forecast
Four Conditions:► Existing condition.► Historic condition.► Future without condition.► Future with condition.
Target Three types of comparisons:
► With-and-without analysis (Col. 5 - Col.4).► Before-and-after analysis (Col. 5- Col. 3).► Gap analysis (Col. 5- Col. 1).
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FORECASTING
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References ER 1105-2-100, Appendix E, Paragraph E-3a(2)
ER 1105-2-100, Appendix E, Sections II and X ►Specific guidance for each Civil Works mission
Without Project Condition Handbook
Handbook on Deep Draft Forecasting
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What is a Forecast and Why Do it?
What: Informed guess about the future, a future condition or scenario
Why: Anticipate future conditions that are uncertain.
To define the base condition, the future without project condition and the future with projects condition
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Forecasts are based on:
Data
Expertise and Experience
Assumptions
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What do we forecast?
Variables
Scenarios (Conditions)
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Variables to forecast: those that affect decisions
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Conditions to Forecast
Base Condition - condition at the time of implementation (base year)
Without Condition - condition if no action takes place (period of analysis)
With Condition - condition if a particular course of action is taken (period of analysis)
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Forecast Without Project Condition
Primary outcome of Step 2. Forecast of the future, without any action to solve
the problem at hand. Does not mean “no change”. Most likely condition or use RBA Used for plan evaluation (with vs. without)
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Assumptions
Data, expertise and experience help make an informed forecast and thus reduce uncertainty.
Assumptions address the remaining uncertainty.
When uncertainty is significant, assumptions are also significant.
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Annual Hotel Revenues
010
2030
405060
7080
90100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
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Forecasting Methods Quantitative
►Percentage growth►Regression►Simulation►Mathematical programming
Qualitative►Subjective judgment►Expert opinion
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Criteria to Select Forecasting Method
Purpose
Reliability of Data
Level of Disaggregation
Uncertainties and Scenarios
Short vs. Long Term
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing atExisting atbase yrbase yr
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing atbase yr
TargetTarget
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing atbase yr
Target
FutureFuture Without (ER)
Without (ER)
Future Without (FDR/NAV)
Future Without (FDR/NAV)
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing atbase yr
Target
Future Without (ER)
Future with Plan AFuture with Plan A
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing
Target
Future Without (ER)
Future with Plan AFuture with Plan A
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing
Target
Future Without (ER)
Future with Plan AFuture with Plan A
Before& AfterBefore& After
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing
Target
Future Without (ER)
Future with Plan AFuture with Plan A
With & WithoutWith & Without
BASE YR TIME +20YEARS
0-
10-
20-
Existing
Target
Future Without (ER)
Future with Plan AFuture with Plan A
With & WithoutWith & Without
GapGap
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Summary In Step 2, data collected is used to verify or re-define
problems and opportunities identified in Step 1
Future without project condition is primary outcome of Step 2
Collect only information you need and use it
“Without” or “No Action” does not mean no change
Assumptions matter.
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Forecaster’s Motto
OFTEN WRONG
BUT NEVER IN DOUBT