University of Texas at AustinDivision of Statistics + Scientific
ComputationStatistics in Action Series
February 6, 2013Austin, TX
Applied Demography: Some Texas Examples
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Demography – the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above.
~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991
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The Population Research Institute,2.1 Kids: Stable Population
http://youtu.be/zBS6f-JVvTY
The Office of the State Demographer disseminates demographic and related socioeconomic data to the State of Texas and the general public. The State Demographer’s Office monitors demographic and socioeconomic changes in the State in order to better inform the executive and legislative branches of Texas government. Special emphasis is placed on data that may be useful to policy makers in dealing with issues regarding the demand for state services.
Mission
• Data Portal, Publications, and Reports http://txsdc.utsa.edu/
• Population Estimates and Projections Program http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Estimates/Index.aspx
• Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings• Public Presentations http://osd.state.tx.us • Data Requests• Custom Research Projects• Annual Conference for Data Users and Applied Demography
Conference
Meeting the Mission
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Population Projections, 2010
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
50000000
55000000
60000000
Projected Population in Texas, 2010 to 2050
No Mi-gration1/2 2000 to 20102000 to 2010
1,000,000
3,500,000
6,000,000
8,500,000
11,000,000
13,500,000
16,000,000
18,500,000
21,000,000
23,500,000
Projected Population for Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2050, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2010 Projections
• Data Portal, Publications, and Reports http://txsdc.utsa.edu/
• Population Estimates and Projections Program http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Estimates/Index.aspx
• Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings• Public Presentations http://osd.state.tx.us • Data Requests• Annual Conference for Data Users and Applied Demography
Conference• Custom Research Projects
Meeting the Mission
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Three Examples of Applying Demographic Data and Methods to Government & Business Planning
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Projecting the educational attainment of the Texas labor force
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Background
• Texas educational attainment ranked the lowest among the 51 states– 51st in high school graduation– 37th in college graduation
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2006-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data
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BackgroundIndividuals with some higher education are more likely to be employed; trend suggests this gap may be widening.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201050.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
f(x) = − 0.000747696969696972 x + 0.570273333333333R² = 0.0223370054209473
f(x) = − 0.00247781818181818 x + 0.748636R² = 0.441782386010636
f(x) = 0.00167006060606061 x + 0.804954666666667R² = 0.385142289993757
Percentage Employed By Educational Attainment, ACS 1-year PUMS
Less than High SchoolLinear (Less than High School)High School Graduates or HigherLinear (High School Graduates or Higher)Bachelor or Higher
Perc
ent
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BackgroundEducational attainment has improved in the last 10 years.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64 ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
< HiHi-EqSome ColAs DegreeBach DegreeMaster DegreeProf DegreeDoc DegreePe
rcen
t
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Background
< HiHi-E
q
Some Col
As Degree
Bach Degree
Master D
egree
Prof Degree
Doc Degree
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64
ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
Male Female
< HiHi-E
q
Some Col
As Degree
Bach Degree
Master D
egree
Prof Degree
Doc Degree
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64
ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
White
Black
US-born Hispanics
Foreign-born Hispanics
Other
Educational attainment improvements seen among most subgroups, but demographic differences are still pronounced.
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Background
< Hi Hi-Eq Some Col As Degree Bach Degree
Master Degree
Prof Degree Doc Degree0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64 ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
18-24 25-34 35-64
Educational attainment improvements seen among most subgroups, but demographic differences are still pronounced.
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Data & Methods
• Data sources:– American Community Survey PUMS data 2001 to 2010– Texas State Data Center population projections data– Texas Workforce Commission occupation-education projection
data• Analysis plan
– Multinomial regression model used to predict the rates of each educational attainment category for each demographic sub-group, based on historical trend and demographic characteristics
– The predicted sub-group specific rates are applied to the population projections
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Findings
• Compare projected educational attainment of the labor force to required labor force for projected job needs
• Identify gaps between demand (by job type) for education and the supply (by the labor force)
• Specific educational attainment levels and population sub-groups can then be targeted to meet these needs– Tailored career paths in high schools, colleges, and vocational
schools– Inform immigration goals for specific skill visas– Evaluate funding needed to meet goals of projected education
levels needed in the labor force
Identifying demographic, socioeconomic, geospatial, and housing unit characteristics that are related to
household energy consumption
• Identified variables related to energy consumption• Data sources:
– Energy provider consumption data– Census data– County appraisal district data
Data & Methods
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Housing Characteristics
• Year built• Square footage• Type of foundation• Number of rooms• Number of stories• Presence of a pool• Presence of a fireplace
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Demographic & Socioeconomic Characteristics
• Total population• Total occupied housing units
– Owner occupied– Renter occupied
• Percent Hispanic, non-Hispanic householders• Mean age of householder• Number of persons per household• Family composition• Educational attainment of householder• Households with children under 6• Households with seniors• Median household income
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Behavioral Characteristics
• Participated in rebate program• Installed a smart thermostat
• Analysis plan– Regression analysis to determine most relevant predictor
variables• Addressing challenges with data
– Differing units of analysis– Geocoding and matching data
Data & Methods
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Findings
• Identify factors most important to high/low energy consumption
• Identify homes with relatively high energy consumption
• Target homes that could benefit from upgrades, receipt of rebates
• Identify hot spots in the city in need of large scale retrofitting
Estimating the number of unauthorized immigrants in Texas counties
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Background
• Texas is one of the fastest growing states, with migration making up 45% of growth
• Issue of immigration, especially unauthorized or illegal migration, critical when planning and considering:– Concerns about border security– Assessments of economic impact on receiving communities– Resulting shifts in the social characteristics of communities
• With the exception of California, sub-state level estimates of the undocumented population are not available.
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Background• Conventionally, estimation of the undocumented population
produced using the residual method (Warren 2011; Passel 2010, 2011) – Estimates of legal foreign born residents are subtracted from
estimates of foreign born • Most commonly used national and state estimates include
Pew Hispanic Center, Dept. of Homeland Security, and R. Warren estimates
• Residual method produces some challenges when attempting to produce estimates at lower geographies due to data unavailability
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Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas
1990 2000 2005 20080
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
450
1,100
1,400 1,400
440
1,127
1,4741,527
1,090
1,360
1,680
Passel Warren DHS
Thou
sand
s
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Data & Methods
• New county level IRS administrative data allows for reallocation of state estimates of the unauthorized to the county level
• Use regression analysis to account for varying use of ITINs by unauthorized immigrant population
• Expand upon this new estimation technique by employing geographically weighted regression to refine the distribution of unauthorized immigrants across the state
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Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population, 2008
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Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population, 2008
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Results
• Higher unauthorized estimates were found in counties characterized by agriculture, urbanicity, high employment, fast Hispanic population growth, and substantial foreign born populations
• These areas include counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston-Baytown-Sugarland, and Austin-Round Rock metropolitan areas, large border counties, and counties in parts of East Texas.
• When examined as a percentage of the county population, Panhandle counties and counties in the Dallas and border areas have higher percentages.
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Demographics & Destiny
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http://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo
Hans Rosling’s The Joy of Stats BBC Four
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Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530E-mail: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Office of the State Demographer