U N I T E D S T AT E S M U L T I F AM I L YC A P I T A L M A R K E T S R E P O R T
TABLE OF CONTENTS
3 Key Takeaways
4 Decade in Review
5 Sales Volume
6 Sales Volume by Market
7 Yield Spread
8 Total Returns by Market
9 Cap Rates
10 Price Per Unit
11 Top Buyers and Sellers
12 Average Hold Time by Market
13 International Capital Buyers
14 International Capital Destinations
15 Effective Rent Growth
16 Effective Rent Growth by Market
17 Employment Growth
18 Supply and Demand
19 Supply and Demand by Market
20 Occupancy Rate by Market
21 Mortgage Debt Outstanding
© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020 2
KEY TAKEAWAYS
SALES VOLUMEInvestment sales volume rose to an all-time high of $183.5 billion, increasing 4.4% year over year. Fourth-quarter volume totaled $50.5 billion, up 4.3% quarter-over-quarter. Non-major markets accounted for 72.1% of investment in 2019, as investors gravitated toward markets with a strong combination of yield and growthprospects.
CAP RATESNational multifamily cap rates compressed 8 basis points year-over-year. Although cap rates increased 16 basis points year-over-year in major markets, a surge ofinvestment activity in non-majors caused yields to fall 12 basis points.
RENT GROWTHAnnual effective rent growth climbed 30 basis points year-over-year to 3.1% nationally in 2019. After dipping slightly in 2017, rent growth rose 60 basis points abovethe long-term average, led by Sunbelt markets such as Atlanta, Charlotte and Phoenix, which are experiencing positive demographic and economic trends.
SUPPLY AND DEMANDHigh levels of new supply were met with robust demand in 2019, as absorption outpaced units delivered. Although Dallas added the largest number of units over thepast 12 months, Charlotte saw the largest inventory increase on a percentage basis at 3.3%, compared with 1.1% nationally.
INTERNATIONAL CAPITALDirect international capital sources invested $12.1 billion over the past 12 months. Canada led all countries in acquisitions in 2019, accounting for 52.2% of allinternational capital investment. Non-major markets accounted for 74.9% of international capital volume, a substantial increase from 53.2% in 2018.
DEBT MARKETSMortgage debt outstanding grew by $40.6 billion to $1.5 trillion, a 2.8% quarter-over-quarter increase. GSEs, banks, life insurance companies and CMBS all saw theirdebt outstanding increase for the quarter, led by CMBS, which grew 4.4%.
© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020 3
© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
San Francisco 83.4%
Seattle 81.2%
Denver 80.9%
Portland 73.1%
Phoenix 70.2%
Nashville 69.3%
Atlanta 68.7%
Charlotte 65.8%
Sacramento 64.1%
Austin 63.4%
NATIONAL 46.5%
DECADE IN REVIEW
4
Source: NKF Research, RealPage, JobsEQ
RENT GROWTH
Net Migration
Charlotte 36.3%
Austin 31.2%
Nashville 31.2%
Raleigh-Durham 25.8%
Salt Lake City 25.2%
San Antonio 25.0%
Dallas 24.5%
Denver 23.2%
Seattle 22.7%
Orlando 19.9%
NATIONAL 11.9%
INVENTORY GROWTH
Austin 38.8%
San Francisco 36.7%
Orlando 35.6%
Nashville 34.6%
Dallas 32.3%
Las Vegas 29.9%
Phoenix 28.8%
Charlotte 28.7%
Salt Lake City 28.3%
Denver 28.0%
NATIONAL 16.4%
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
Austin 28.6%
Orlando 22.8%
Houston 19.8%
Raleigh-Durham 19.3%
San Antonio 19.2%
Dallas 18.9%
Nashville 17.5%
Phoenix 17.4%
Charlotte 17.3%
Denver 16.7%
NATIONAL 6.5%
POPULATION GROWTH
10-YEAR TRENDS
The past decade saw multifamily surpass office to become the largest recipient of institutional capital. The markets that benefitted from the demographic shifts have been amix of supply-constrained coastal markets as well as key Sunbelt markets that have experienced unprecedented amounts of employment and population growth.
SALES VOLUMEUNITED STATES; DOLLARS IN BILLIONS
Investment sales volume rose to an all-time high of $183.5 billion, increasing 4.4% year-over-year. Fourth-quarter volume totaled $50.5 billion, up 4.3% quarter-over-quarter.Portfolio transactions accelerated to $35.5 billion, accounting for 19.3% of sales volume for the year.
5© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics
$36.
1
$38.
2
$36.
4
$46.
4
$49.
6 $48.
4
$53.
8 $50.
5
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
SALES VOLUME BY MARKET12-MONTH TOTALS; DOLLARS IN BILLIONS
Supply-constrained markets such as New York and Los Angeles attracted the largest amount capital over the past 12 months, although non-major markets such as Seattle(71.7%), Las Vegas (65.6%) and Charlotte (30.3%) experienced the largest year-over-year increases. Non-major markets accounted for 72.1% of total investment in 2019, asinvestors gravitated toward markets with a strong combination of yield and growth prospects.
6© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics
101.2% Year-over-Year Growth
48.5% Year-over-Year Growth
30.6% Year-over-Year Growth
Record High First Half Volume ($2.9 Billion)
SFL$4.0
ATL$9.2
DEN$5.7
MSP$1.7
NSH$2.0
ORL$3.1
PHI$2.7
PHX$8.0
POR$2.2
RD$3.3
SA$2.5
AUS$4.8
DFW$10.5
SF$6.7 DC
$8.9
LA$12.4
NYC$13.6
HOU$6.6
$5.0+ $2.6-4.9
$1.5-$2.5
CHA$3.7
TAM$3.5
SEA$8.3
BOS$4.0
* Major markets: Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles metro, New York metro, San Francisco metro, Washington, D.C. metro. Non-major markets: all other markets.
CHI$3.8
SD$2.6
LV$3.8
YIELD SPREADUNITED STATES
The 10-year treasury note increased 24 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 1.92% in the fourth quarter. The yield spread between multifamily cap rates and the 10-yeartreasury rate decreased marginally to 339 basis points, remaining above the long-term average of 307.
7© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions $10 million and greater)
339
5.31%
1.92%
0
100
200
300
400
500
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Yield Spread US Multifamily Average Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate
TOTAL RETURNS BY MARKETANNUALIZED TOTALS
Over the past 12 months, multifamily total returns nationally averaged 5.51%, contracting 56 basis points year-over-year. Sunbelt markets, including Phoenix (13.65%), Tampa(9.49%), Orlando (9.46%) and Austin (9.34%) continue to outperform the broader market.
8© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, NCREIF
13.6
5%
9.49
%
9.46
%
9.34
%
8.38
%
8.34
%
7.75
%
6.91
%
6.18
%
6.07
%
5.72
%
5.63
%
5.58
%
5.56
%
5.42
%
5.00
%
5.00
%
4.64
%
4.53
%
4.09
%
3.48
%
2.19
%
1.46
%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
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New
York
US Multifamily Total Return Average = 5.51%
CAP RATESUNITED STATES; 12-MONTH AVERAGE
National multifamily cap rates compressed 8 basis points year-over-year. Although cap rates increased 16 basis points year-over-year in major markets, a surge of investmentactivity in non-major markets caused yields to fall 12 basis points.
9© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions $10 million and greater)
5.31%4.85%
5.45%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
United States Major Markets Non-Major Markets
* Major markets: Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles metro, New York metro, San Francisco metro, Washington, D.C. metro. Non-major markets: all other markets.
PRICE PER UNITUNITED STATES; 12-MONTH AVERAGE; DOLLARS IN THOUSANDS
The national average price per unit increased to $188,000, up 10.0% year-over-year. Price per unit in both major and non-major markets grew year-over-year, by 10.8% and10.2%, respectively. Non-major markets grew by an extraordinary 116.2% in the last decade, compared with 89.2% for major markets.
10© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions $10 million and greater)
$188
$316
$159
$0
$75
$150
$225
$300
$375
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
United States Major Markets Non-Major Markets
* Major markets: Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles metro, New York metro, San Francisco metro, Washington, D.C. metro. Non-major markets: all other markets.
TOP BUYERS AND SELLERSUNITED STATES; 12-MONTH TOTALS; DOLLARS IN MILLIONS
Portfolio and entity-level transactions accounted for 20.8% of volume in 2019, as the largest buyers increasingly view large-scale transactions as the most efficient entrypoint. BREIT and Blackstone acquired $3.1 billion combined in portfolio and entity-level deals in 2019, primarily through a series of regional portfolios.
11© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
BREIT Cortland MorganProperties
UDR Nuveen Blackstone EquityResidential
GoldmanSachs
Tricon Invesco RealEstate
AmericanLandmark
Bridge InvGrp
KushnerCompanies
GuardianLife
Brookfield
Top Buyers
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
Lone Star Brookfield Greystar Blackstone AllianceResidential
PGIM RealEstate
JP Morgan HollandPartners
StarlightInvestments
EquityResidential
BerkshireGroup
MorganMgmt
CarlyleGroup
FairfieldResidential
WoodPartners
Top Sellers
Single Asset Portfolio & Entity
AVERAGE HOLD TIME BY MARKETNUMBER OF MONTHS; TRADES OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS
In 2019, Atlanta, Denver and Orlando experienced the shortest hold times of multifamily assets, as investors cashed in on returns from value-add product in these markets.Turnover was much lower in markets with lower yields, such as New York and Washington, D.C.
12© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics
44.8 46
.3 49.1
49.5 51
.4 53.7
53.8
54.3
54.3
54.7 56
.9
56.9 59
.1
59.2
59.4
59.5
60.1
60.2
60.5
60.8
60.9 62.1 64
.1 65.8 68
.3 71.7 74
.2
74.2
74.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Atla
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Denv
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Orla
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Phoe
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.
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL BUYERSUNITED STATES; 12-MONTH TOTALS
13© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics
BY COUNTRY
Canada52.2%
Bahrain7.9%
Netherlands7.6%
Israel5.7%
Japan3.8%
South Korea3.6%
Switzerland3.3%
Qatar3.0%
UK2.6%
Singapore2.5%
China2.5%
Other5.3%
Direct international capital sources invested $12.1 billion over the past 12 months, a 26.5% decrease in cross-border acquisition volume from the previous year. Canada led allcountries in acquisitions in 2019, accounting for 52.2% of all international capital investment led by Tricon’s acquisition of Starlight’s 7,289-unit U.S. multifamily fifth corefund, concentrated in the Carolinas, Florida and Texas.
TOP BUYERS (DOLLARS IN MILLIONS)
$220
$232
$238
$305
$311
$353
$365
$400
$452
$540
$589
$915
$956
$1,195
$1,400
GMF Capital (Switzerland)
Mitsubishi (Japan)
Korea Inv Holdings (Korea)
OMERS (Canada)
Low Tide Properties (Canada)
BentallGreenOak (Canada)
QIA (Qatar)
Western Weath Capital (Canada)
Starlight Investments (Canada)
Delek Group (Israel)
Aegon (Netherlands)
PSP Investments (Canada)
Investcorp (Bahrain)
Brookfield (Canada)
Tricon (Canada)
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL DESTINATIONS12-MONTH TOTALS
14© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Real Capital Analytics
MAJOR MARKETS 25.1%
BY MARKET TIERAs a % of Cross-Border Capital
BY REGIONAs a % of Cross-Border Capital
NON-MAJOR MARKETS 74.9%
MID-ATLANTIC 12.2%
MIDWEST 6.1%
NORTHEAST 5.2%
SOUTHEAST 32.3%
SOUTHWEST 24.1%
WEST 20.1%
* Major markets: Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles metro, New York metro, San Francisco metro, Washington, D.C. metro. Non-major markets: all other markets.
ATL$878M
BOS$123M
CHI$394M
DFW$339M
DC$921M
DEN$395M
HOU$627M
LA$715M
NYC$800M
ORL$470M
PHX$407M
RD$428M
SF$724M
SEA$746M
TAM$470M
CHA$244M
AUS$720M
LV$277M
Much like their U.S. counterparts, direct international capital sources focused the majority of their capital on growth markets outside of the six major markets in 2019. Non-major markets accounted for 74.9% of international capital, a substantial increase from 53.2% in 2018, as international investors chase yield and strong demographic trendsinto quality non-major markets.
NSH$227M
SFL$210M
EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTHUNITED STATES; ANNUALIZED
Annual effective rent growth climbed 30 basis points year-over-year to 3.1% nationally in 2019. After dipping slightly in 2017, rent growth is now 60 basis points above thelong-term average of 2.5%. Nominal effective rents increased 46.5% over the past decade, from $956 to $1,400 on average.
15© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, RealPage
$840
$870
$853
$850
$868
$898
$944
$976
$990
$949
$956
$996
$1,0
29
$1,0
67
$1,1
17
$1,1
84
$1,2
39
$1,2
84
$1,3
39
$1,4
00
3.1%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19
Effective Rent Effective Rent Growth Long-Term Effective Rent Growth Average
US Long-Term Effective Rent Growth Average = 2.5%
EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH BY MARKETANNUALIZED; SELECT MARKETS
Sunbelt markets with robust net migration and low cost of living, such as Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte, Las Vegas and Phoenix, have seen a surge in absorption, translating toabove-average effective annual rental growth compared with the national average.
16© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, RealPage
8.2%
7.6%
4.9%
4.7%
4.6%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.0%
3.9%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
0.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Phoe
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Kans
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Okla
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Chic
ago
San
Jose
Mia
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Hous
ton
US Annual Average Effective Rent Growth = 3.1%
EMPLOYMENT GROWTHYEAR-OVER-YEAR; SELECT MARKETS
Over the past 12 months, the market that saw the greatest number of new jobs was the Dallas metro with 120,700 non-farm jobs added. The markets that experienced thehighest employment growth relative to their total number of employees were Raleigh-Durham (3.8%), Dallas (3.2%), and San Antonio (3.2%).
17© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (November release)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
Dalla
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Employment Growth (#) Employment Growth (%)
SUPPLY AND DEMANDUNITED STATES
In 2019, demand outpaced new supply with 249,721 units absorbed compared with 246,779 units delivered. Inventory growth has steadily fallen each year since 2016,although that is expected to reverse course in 2020. Just over 370,000 units are expected to be delivered in 2020, equivalent to 2.1% inventory growth.
18© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, RealPage
1.5%1.3% 1.2%
0.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0.6% 0.7%
1.1% 1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
0.7%
1.2%1.4% 1.5%
1.8% 1.7%
1.4%
1.1%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
-150,000
-25,000
100,000
225,000
350,000
475,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
New Supply Demand Inventory Growth
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY MARKET
Dallas and New York saw the largest new supply of multifamily deliveries in 2019, while both markets saw strong levels of demand. The markets that experienced the largestpercentage of total inventory growth this year were Charlotte (3.3%), Dallas (2.7%) and Denver (2.5%).
19© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, RealPage
12-MONTH TOTALS; SELECT MARKETS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
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New Supply Demand Inventory Growth
OCCUPANCY RATE BY MARKET12-MONTH TOTALS; SELECT MARKETS
The annual average occupancy rate nationally rose to the highest level this cycle at 95.8%, driven by strong economic trends. New York (97.3%), Minneapolis (97.0%) andBoston (96.7%) led the country with the highest occupancy rates.
20© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, RealPage
97.3
%
97.0
%
96.7
%
96.6
%
96.4
%
96.4
%
96.4
%
96.3
%
96.3
%
96.2
%
96.2
%
96.1
%
96.1
%
96.1
%
96.1
%
95.8
%
95.8
%
95.8
%
95.6
%
95.5
%
95.5
%
95.5
%
95.4
%
95.3
%
95.2
%
95.2
%
95.2
%
95.0
%
94.9
%
93.9
%
93.6
%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
New
York
Min
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Jack
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Atla
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Dalla
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San
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ton
US Annual Average Occupancy Rate = 95.8%
MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGUNITED STATES
Mortgage debt outstanding grew by $40.6 billion to $1.5 trillion, a 2.8% quarter-over-quarter increase. GSEs, banks, life insurance companies and CMBS all saw their debtoutstanding increase for the quarter, led by CMBS, which grew 4.4%.
21© NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | RESEARCH | 2020
Source: NKF Research, Mortgage Bankers Association
DEBT OUTSTANDING BY GROUP AS A PERCENTAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING BY GROUP IN BILLIONS
$728
.1
$452
.0
$147
.0
$90.
4 $43.
7
$44.
1
$0
$150
$300
$450
$600
$750
GSEs Bank &Thrifts
Life Co State &Local Gov't
CMBS Other
GSEs48.4%
Banks & Thrifts 30.0%
Government9.8%
Insurance Companies
6.0%
CMBS2.9%
Other2.9%
NEW YORK CITYHEADQUARTERS125 Park AvenueNew York, NY 10017212.372.2000
Newmark Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents.
Newmark Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at www.ngkf.com/research
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Jeff DayPresidentHead of Multifamily Capital [email protected]
Blake OklandVice ChairmanHead of Multifamily Investment [email protected]
Sharon KaraffaVice ChairmanCo-Head of [email protected]
Jonathan MazurSenior Managing DirectorNational [email protected]
Mike WolfsonDirectorCapital Markets [email protected]
Sean MarmoraResearch AnalystMultifamily [email protected]
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