United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
Food, Agriculture, and U.S. Market Prospects
Evan ManginoATO Deputy DirectorU.S. Embassy – TokyoMarch 6, 2017
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
Basic Economic Indicators • GDP: $4.1 trillion Rank 3rd
– U.S.: $17.9 trillion– China: $10.9 trillion
• GDP/Capita: $32,400 – U.S.: $55,800– China: $7,900
• Real GDP Growth Rate: 1.2% (annualized)
• Inflation Rate: 0.4% • Unemployment: 3.0% • Consumption Tax: 8% (10% October 2019)
• “Abe-nomics” 3 Arrows – 1.0 and 2.0
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
DomesticProduction
Rice22%
Vegetables26%
Fruit&Nuts9%
DairyCattle9%
Poultry9%
AllOthers25%
Japan’sTotalAgriculturalProductionValue
434
54.393.7
050
100150200250300350400450500
UnitedStates Hokkaido RestofJapan
AverageFarmSize(acres) FarmersOver60
77%FarmersUnder40
7%
0
2
2005 2010 2015
TotalFarms
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
Cereals37%
Potatoes2%
Vegetables3%
Fruits3%
Meats7%
Dairy6%
Fish 4%
Fats & Oils14%
Sugar8%
Other15%
Per Capita Consumption (% of daily calories)
Pork43%
Chicken 30%
Beef27%
Food Consumption in Japan
Rice62%
Wheat36%
Key Considerations – Population of 127 Million – High per capita GDP– High per capita spending on food – Diet rich in fish, rice, and veg
However….– Shrinking population / low birth rate– Consume 1,000 fewer calories per
day than Americans– Deflationary mindset
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
International Trade
$4,862
$3,837
$2,092
$1,318
$813
$736$409 $367
U.S.ExportstoJapan2016 Grains&
FeedsLivestock&MeatsHorticulturalProductsOilseeds&ProductsForestProductsFisheryProductsDairy&Products
0
5
10
15
20
2006 2011 2016
BillionUS$ U.S.AgriculturalExportComposition
Consumer Oriented Intermediate Bulk
0
2
4
6
8
Japan HongKong SouthKorea
China Taiwan
TopFiveAsianMarketsforU.S.Consumer-OrientedProduct(2016)
BillionUS$
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
Marketing: What Sells
国産
Traceabilityanzen
Storyanshin
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
0 50 100 150 200 250
Tokyo
Kansai
Paris
NewYorkCity
SanFrancisco
Chicago
óóó óó ó
Marketing: Restaurants
NumberofStarredMichelinRestaurants
020,00040,00060,00080,000
61,810
38,596
35,805
33,967
56,850
(NRAdata&JapanFoodServiceAssociation)
Tokyo
Florida
Texas
NY
California
NumberofRestaurantsbyState
2013RestaurantSalesUnitedStates: $659BillionJapan: $303Billion
2013RestaurantOutletsUnitedStates: 630,000Japan: 700,000
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.02015GDP$Trillion(PPP)
EU
China
India
Japan
Russia
Brazil
Datasources:GlobalInsight
Six Largest Economies Outside the U.S. (by GDP)
PerCapitaGDP$PPP
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.02015GDP$Trillion(PPP)
EU
China
India
Japan
Russia
Brazil
Datasources:GlobalInsight,U.S.CensusBureau,ForeignTradeStatistics
PerCapitaGDP$PPP
Bubblesize=$U.S.AgExport/Person
Consumers with Purchasing Power and an Appetite for American Products
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
• Japanremainsastrongmarket,dependentuponimportedfood
• Retailfood,beverage,andrestaurantsectorisvaluedatmorethan$650Billion
• Affluentpopulationwithdiversepalates–notastagnantmarket
• Japaneseconsumersarewillingtopayahigherpriceforqualityandconvenience
• ‘Anzen’and‘Anshin’– safety&peaceofmind
Conclusions
United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
Questions?