Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 1/44
Operational and Research Activities
at ECMWF
Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 2/44
ECMWF’s…
…background and structure
…research activities Integrated Forecast System (IFS)
…operational activities production, delivery, archiving
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 3/44
Background
• Convention establishing ECMWF entered in force on 1st Nov 1975, having been ratified by the following 13 Member states:
• Recognition of importance and potential to improve medium-range weather forecasts with benefits to the European economy Protection and safety of population Development of meteorology in Europe / post university training Development of European industry in the field of data-processing
• Recognition that resources are needed on a scale exceeding those normally practicable at national level
Belgium Germany France Yugoslavia Austria Finland United Kingdom
Denmark Spain Ireland Netherlands Switzerland Sweden
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 4/44
Today……ECMWF is an independent international organization, supported by 18 member states
13 co-operating states
Iceland
CzechRepublic
Slovenia
Romania
Serbia
Hungary
Croatia
Estonia
Lithuania
Morocco
Co-operating agreements:
Montenegro
Slovakia
Latvia
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 5/44
New Convention
• Amendments to the ECMWF Convention were unanimously adopted by
Council at its 62nd extraordinary session on 22 April 2005
• Finalization of the ratification process is expected by the end of 2009
• The adopted amendments concern mainly:
allowing new Member States to join
enlarging ECMWF’s mission to environmental monitoring
re-defining some decision making processes (voting rights)
widening the possibilities for externally funded projects (e.g. EU)
extending official languages to all official languages in Member States
(on a request-and-pay basis)
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 6/44
Objectives
• Operational forecasting up to 15 days ahead (including waves)
• R & D activities in forecast modelling
• Data archiving and related services
• Operational forecasts for the coming month and season
• Advanced NWP training
• Provision of supercomputer resources
• Assistance to WMO programmes
• Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications
Network (RMDCN)
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 7/44
Germany 20.20%
Denmark1.87%
Belgium2.71%
United Kingdom16.43%
Turkey 2.38%
Sweden 2.66%
Finland 1.42%
Switzerland 2.89%Portugal1.29%
Austria 2.16%
Norway 2.13%
Netherlands 4.61%
Italy12.66%
Ireland1.23%
Greece1.74%
France 15.46%
Spain 7.95%Main Revenue 2009
Member States’contributions £35,593,300
Co-operating States’contributions £847,400
Other Revenue £1,169,500
Total £37,610,200
GNI Scale 2009–2011
Luxembourg0.23%
Main Expenditure 2009Staff £14,450,100
Leaving Allowances& Pensions £2,965,200
ComputerExpenditure £15,690,600
Buildings £3,634,300
Supplies £870,000
Total £37,610,200
ECMWF Budget 2009
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 8/44
Organizational structure
COUNCIL18 Member States
DIRECTORDominique Marbouty
(France) (230)
Meteorological Division
Erik Andersson(Sweden) (42)
Computer DivisionIsabella Weger
(Austria) (65)
OperationsWalter Zwieflhofer
(Austria) (111)
ResearchMartin Miller
(UK) (90)
AdministrationUte Dahremöller
(Germany) (25)
Data DivisionJean-Noel Thepaut
(France) (37)
Model DivisionMartin Miller
(UK) (24)
Probabilistic Forecastingand Diagnostics Division
Tim Palmer(UK) (19)
FinanceCommittee7 Members
Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members
Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members
Advisory Committee of Co-operating States
12 Members
Advisory Committee on Data Policy
8-31 Members
Policy AdvisoryCommittee
7-18 Members
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 9/44
Principal Goal
• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 10/44
Principal Goal
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 11/44
Principal Goal
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082
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lead
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monthly scores (12 month MA) for N.-Hem. (20N-90N)
t850hPa; t ACC-HR=0.6 = 7.2d
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High Res.
Control
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 12/44
Complimentary Goals
• In addition to the principal goal of maintaining the current, rapid rate of improvements, the complimentary goals are:
To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts
To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models
To deliver real-time analysis and forecasts of atmospheric composition
To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the Earth-system
To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System
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Numerical Weather Prediction
• The behaviour of the atmosphere is governed by a set of physical laws
• Equations cannot be solved analytically, numerical methods are needed
• Additionally, knowledge of initial conditions of system necessary
• Incomplete picture from observations can be completed by data assimilation
• Interactions between atmosphere and land/ocean important
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Strategy
• Development of a suitably comprehensive Earth-system assimilation capability to make best use of all available data
• Development of a suitably comprehensive and integrated high-resolution Earth-system modelling facility
• Development of the methodology of ensemble forecasting for medium-range and seasonal forecasting
• Operational delivery of an enhanced range of meteorological and associated products
• Maintenance and extension of the Centre’s scientific and technical collaborations
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 15/44
Research Department
Data DivisionJean-Noel Thepaut
(France) (36)
Model DivisionMartin Miller
(UK) (26)
Probabilistic Forecasting& Diagnostics Division
Tim Palmer(UK) (18)
Data AssimilationLars Isaksen
(Denmark) (15)
Satellite DataPeter Bauer
(Germany) (14)
Re-Analysis ProjectDick Dee
(Netherlands) (3)
Predictability & Diagnostics
Tim Palmer(UK) (7)
Seasonal ForecastFranco Molteni
(Italy) (9)Numerical Aspects
Agathe Untch(Germany) (7)
Ocean WavesPeter Janssen
(Netherlands) (3)
Physical AspectsAnton Beljaars
(Netherlands) (12)
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 16/44
ECMWF’s operational analysis and forecasting system
The comprehensive earth-system model developed at ECMWF forms the basis for all the data assimilation and forecasting activities. All the main applications required are available through one integrated computer software system (a set of computer programs written in Fortran) called the
Integrated Forecast System or IFS
• Numerical scheme: TL799L91 (799 waves around a great circle on the globe, 91 levels 0-80 km) semi-Lagrangian formulation 1,630,000,000,000,000 computations required for each 10-day forecast
• Time step: 12 minutes
• Prognostic variables: wind, temperature, humidity, cloud fraction and water/ice content, pressure at surface grid-points, ozone
• Grid: Gaussian grid for physical processes, ~25 km, 76,757,590 grid points
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Deterministic model grid (T799)
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EPS model grid (T399)
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The wave model
• Coupled ocean wave model (WAM cycle4)
2 versions: global and regional (European Shelf & Mediterranean)
numerical scheme: irregular lat/lon grid, 40 km spacing; spectrum with 30 frequencies and 24 directions
coupling: wind forcing of waves every 15 minutes, two way interaction of winds and waves, sea state dep. drag coefficient
extreme sea state forecasts: freak waves
wave model forecast results can be used as a tool to diagnose problems in the atmospheric model
Numerical Methods and Adiabatic Formulation of Models:
30 March - 3 April 2009
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 20/44
Physical aspects, included in IFS
• Orography (terrain height and sub-grid-scale characteristics) • Four surface and sub-surface levels (allowing for vegetation cover, gravitational drainage, capillarity exchange, surface / sub-surface runoff)• Stratiform and convective precipitation• Carbon dioxide (345 ppmv fixed), aerosol, ozone• Solar angle• Diffusion • Ground & sea roughness • Ground and sea-surface temperature • Ground humidity• Snow-fall, snow-cover and snow melt • Radiation (incoming short-wave and out-going long-wave)• Friction (at surface and in free atmosphere)• Sub-grid-scale orographic drag • Gravity waves and blocking effects • Evaporation, sensible and latent heat flux
Parameterization of Diabatic Processes
11 – 21 May 2009
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 21/44
Starting a forecast: The initial conditions
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Data Assimilation
• Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture
Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps
Observations made at various times, not all at ‘analysis time’
Observations have errors
Many observations not directly of model variables
• The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation)
start with previous analysis
use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time
correct this ‘background’ state using the new observations
see next eight days
• The forecast model is very sensitive to small differences in initial conditions
accurate analysis crucial for accurate forecast
EPS used to represent the remaining analysis uncertainty
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 23/44
What is an ensemble forecast?
Forecast time
Tem
pera
ture
Complete description of weather prediction in terms of aProbability Density Function (PDF)
Initial condition Forecast
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 24/44
Flow dependence of forecast errors
If the forecasts are coherent (small spread) the atmosphere is in a more
predictable state than if the forecasts diverge (large spread)
aa
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Control Analysis Ensemble
ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1994 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0
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Control Analysis Ensemble
ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1995 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0
26th June 1995 26th June 1994
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 25/44
Why Probabilities?
• Open air restaurant scenario:
open additional tables: £20 extra cost, £100 extra income (if T>24ºC)
weather forecast: 30% probability for T>24ºC
what would you do?
• Test the system for 100 days: 30 x T>24ºC -> 30 x (100 – 20) = 2400 70 x T<24ºC -> 70 x ( 0 – 20) = -1400 +1000
• Employing extra waiter (spending £20) is beneficial
when probability for T>24 ºC is greater 20%
• The higher/lower the cost loss ratio, the higher/lower probabilities are
needed in order to benefit from action on forecast
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 26/44
ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction Systems
• Account for initial uncertainties by running ensemble of forecasts from slightly different initial conditions singular vector approach to sample perturbations
• Model uncertainties are represented by “stochastic physics”
• Medium-range VarEPS (15-day lead) runs twice daily (00 and 12 UTC) day 0-10: TL399L62 (0.45°, ~50km), 50+1 members
day 9-15: TL255L62 (0.7°, ~80km), 50+1 members
• Extended time-range EPS systems: monthly and seasonal forecasts coupled atmosphere-ocean model (IFS & HOPE) monthly forecast (4 weeks lead) runs once a week seasonal forecast (6 months lead) runs once a month
Predictability, Diagnostics and Extended Range Forecasting
16 - 25 March 2009
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 27/44
Operations Department
Computer OperationsSylvia Baylis
(UK) (32)
Network and Computer SecurityRémy Giraud(France) (12)
Systems SoftwareNeil Storer
(UK) (8)
Meteorological DivisionErik Andersson(Sweden) (37)
Meteorological ApplicationsAlfred Hofstadler
(Austria) (9)
Data & ServicesBaudouin Raoult
(France) (8)
Meteorological OperationsDavid Richardson
(UK) (13)
GraphicsStefan Siemen(Germany) (6)User Support
Umberto Modigliani(Italy) (6)
Computer DivisionIsabella Weger(Austria) (68)
Servers & DesktopsRichard Fisker(Denmark) (9)
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Current Computer Configuration
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RMDCN Network
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User support for special projects
http://www.ecmwf.int/about/computer_access_registration/Special_Projects.html
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 31/44
ECMWF model suites
• Deterministic high-resolution global atmospheric model TL799 91 levels; range=10 days
• Medium-range ensemble prediction system TL399 / TL255 62 levels; range=15 days
control + 50 perturbed members
• Monthly forecast system TL255 62 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)
51-member ensemble; range=32 days
• Seasonal forecast system TL159 62 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)
41-member ensemble; range=6 months
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Main operational suites
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Data Dissemination
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The ECMWF archive
• The largest NWP archive worldwide
• Built since ECMWF operations started in 1979
• Holds more than 5 petabytes today
• 6 terabytes added daily
• Contains: All data used
All analyses
All forecasts
Reanalyses
• Fully accessible on-line to Member States users
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MARS
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 36/44
ECMWF Data Server
A new service that gives researchers immediate and free access to datasets from ECMWF.
• DEMETER• ERA-40• ERA-15• ENACT• ENSEMBLES / GEMS- Monthly and daily data- Select area- GRIB or NetCDF- Plotting facility
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Meteorological Operations
• Daily report (data and forecast monitoring, unusual events,…)
• Forecast verification
• Development of new products (EFI, tropical cyclones,…)
• Data and satellite monitoring
• User guides / meetings
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Met Ops daily report
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 39/44
Monitoring of model performance
Mean calculation method: standardDate: 20070901 00UTC to 20081130 00UTC
N.hem Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon -180.0 to 180.0Anomaly correlation forecast
500hPa GeopotentialMean curves
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ec 2008
ec 2007
mo 2008
mo 2007
ncep 2008
ncep 2007
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 40/44
Product Development
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 41/44
Forecast Products: 1979
1 forecast (200 km resolution) issued 5 days a week
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Forecast Products: 2009
wide range of forecast products from deterministic high resolution forecast to probabilistic EPS products
www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts
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Products for end users
Training Course 2009 – NWP-DA: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 44/44
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