THE REDD-PAC PROJECT AND GLOBIOM BRAZILGilberto Câmara, INPE
Aline Mosnier, IIASA
Fernando Ramos, INPE
Ricardo Cartaxo, INPE
Aline Soterroni, INPE
Pedro Andrade, INPE
Alexandre Ywata, IPEA
Warsaw, November 16, 2013
National Institute for SpaceResearch - Brazil
REDD+ Policy Assessment Center
Introduction
What are the local strategies that can contribute to the global goals?
• The outcome with the local strategy must be better than without the strategy globally
• Taking into account direct and indirect effects in all the sectors• Taking into account indirect effects in the other countries/regions
Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation
The Brazilian Case:
• The new forest code• Low carbon agriculture program (ABC program)• Loans to technology adoption and intensification• PPCerrado (plan to reduce deforestation in the Cerrado Biome)• Plans for other biomes• Forest plantation policies• Infrastructure improvements• Etc.
Land use models may help understand the potential joint impact
Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation
Policies to be addressed with land use models: biofuels in Brazil
Gasoline PriceRelative prices: gasoline
versus alcohol
Domestic demand shitIncrease in biofuels prices for the producers
Change in land use dynamics
- Deforestation pressure- Crop production- Emissions- Pasture areas- Spatial location- Land use change
Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation
Policies to be addressed with land use models: subsidized loans to rural producers (example, ABC Program)
Subsidized loans Technology adoption (intensification, sustainable
techniques etc.)
Increase in productivityReducing deforestation pressure
- Crop production- Emissions- Pasture areas- Spatial location- Land use change
GLOBIOM MODEL
GLOBIOM
SUPPLY
Process
DEMAND
Wood products Food Bioenergy
G4M
Exogenous driversPopulation, GDP
Primary wood products
Crops
Country HRU*PX30
PX5
SimU delineation relatedstatistics on LC classes and
Cropland management systems
reference for geo-coded data on crop management;
input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;
LC&LUstat
PROCESS
PX5
Altitude class, Slope class, Soil Class
PX5
Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;
Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;
HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil
Biophysical models
Between 10*10 km and
50*50 km
Aggregation in larger
units (max 200*200 km)
28 regions
EPIC RUMINANT
SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INPUT DATA
Climate Soil and topography Management Land cover
Spatially explicit input data• Initial land cover => GLC 2000
CROPLAND FORESTS
GRASSLAND OTHER NATURAL LAND
Spatially explicit input dataAGRICULTURE FORESTRY BIOENERGY
WheatRice
MaizeSoybean
BarleySorghum
MilletCotton
Dry beansRapeseed
GroundnutSugarcanePotatoesCassava
SunflowerChickpeasOil Palm
Sweet potatoes
BuffaloCattleSheepGoatPig
Poultry
BeefLambPork
PoultryEggsMilk
Biomass for log productionFuel wood
Other wood
Pulp woodLogs
EthanolFAME
MethanolHeat
ElectricityBiogas
GLOBIOM BRAZIL
Improvements on Brazilian Model• Transportation costs• Land cover and land use• Productivity• Total Production• Domestic demand• Scenarios for per capita GDP, population growth, biofuels consumption• Calibration and fine tuning for model parameters
GLOBIOM Brazil
• 11003 SimUs
• 3001 CRs
GLOBIOM Brazil
• 11003 SimUs
• 3001 CRs
• 26 States + DF
GLOBIOM Brazil
• 11003 SimUs
• 3001 CRs
• 26 States + DF
• Legal Amazon
GLOBIOM Brazil
• 11003 SimUs
• 3001 CRs
• 26 States + DF
• Legal Amazon
• 6 Biomes
COSTS TO NEAREST PORT
CORN
SOY
TRANSPORTATION COSTS
New Land Cover and Use Map
CROP DISTRIBUTION (2000)
PROTECTED AREAS
PRELIMINARY RESULTSFOREST EVOLUTION
Forest Evolution – 2000
Forest Evolution – 2010
Forest Evolution – 2020
Forest Evolution – 2030
Forest Evolution – 2040
Forest Evolution – 2050
Deforestation Pattern (2000 to 2010)
Arc of Deforestation
Source: FAO
Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation
• Policy planning has be scientific evidence based
• Land use is too complex to be addressed by a monosectorial approach
• GLOBIOM integrates a large set of geo-maps, biophysical and biodiversity information, and economic theory and helps us provide assessment over time
THANK YOU!