The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
The national planning picture: local plans, land supply and house building Matthew Spry – Senior Director, NLP
December 2014
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Introduction
• Introduction
• Current issues in planning for housing
• Local Plans and housing needs
• 5 Year Housing Land Supply Update
• Implications
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
1. Introduction
2. Current issues in planning for housing
3. Local Plans and housing needs
4. 5 Year Supply Update
5. Implications
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Current issues
• Politics
• It’s the economy, stupid
• Strategic planning to help cities grow
• Green Belt
• Garden Cities
• Perpetual revolution - changes to planning system
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
The politics
“we can and must choose to build a new
generation of homes for those on
ordinary salaries. Central to this is the
need for consistent and committed
action at all levels – a long term strategy
– to tackle the biggest issues of our
generation”
“ We want to help more young people
achieve the dream of home ownership
so today I can pledge we will build
100,000 homes for young, first-time
buyers…. I don’t want to see young
people locked out of home ownership
“A labour Government will make sure
that Britain builds 200,000 more homes
a year by the end of the next Parliament
so that more families can fulfil their
dream of home ownership”
“You have got to look at what is right
in your area, what would be
sacrosanct in one area won’t
necessarily be sacrosanct in another,
depending on the community and
what people feel”
Tim Farron (Liberal Democrats President) Brandon Lewis (Minister of State for Housing and Planning)
Ed Milliband David Cameron
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
It’s the economy, stupid
Macro growth benefits
• OBR economic growth
estimates rely on
investment in new and
existing dwellings
• 2.12 million jobs in
construction industry
• UK housing shortage is
costing consumers £4bn
each year (CBI report)
Micro growth benefits
• Local spending in shops
and services
• Driving regeneration and
affordable housing
• Local training and
apprenticeships
Addressing labour
market pressures
• three-quarters of London
businesses warn housing
supply and costs are “a
significant risk to the
capital’s economic
growth”.
• Two out of five
businesses already say
they are concerned about
the impact on their ability
to recruit and retain staff.
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Strategic planning to help cities grow
• Under-bounded growers
Cambridge Northampton Norwich
Southampton Oxford Reading
Crawley
Luton
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Strategic planning to help cities grow
And big cities initiate a land grab
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Green Belt
• Recent changes to the Planning Practice Guidance show political baggage of Green Belt remains
• But approach remains: Paragraph 14 (footnote 9) vs. reasonable alternatives and Paras 83-85
• A matter for Plan reviews not applications/appeals
• NPPF has driven a quiet, modest rethink on Green Belt
• Almost half of LPAs in Metropolitan Green Belt around London are pursuing GB reviews
• Mayor of London has signalled need for long term review in 2050 Infrastructure Plan
• Similar story around other conurbations (e.g. Birmingham Solihull & Manchester)
• Significant land capacity in GB around stagnating settlements and under-used infrastructure – more acceptable than non-GB choices?
• Will NPPF paras 84 and 85 (“need for sustainable patterns of development”) bite?
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Garden Cities
• Totemic model of development
• How realistic to deliver?
• Limited appetite for the risks
and legal barriers to delivery of
new settlements of this scale
• But…
• Clear demand for schemes to
have ‘Garden City principles’
• The existing New Towns often
have significant appetite to grow
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Perpetual revolution
NPPF likely to remain, but ongoing change on the cards
Cutting red tape:
• Permitted Development rights
• Deemed discharge of planning conditions
• S.106 streamlined for small sites
• Statutory consultations
Public sector land / brownfield
Local Plan – statutory requirement?
The ‘larger than local’ vacuum?
An independent review on housing in
the UK carried out by Sir Michael Lyons
for the Labour’s Policy Review
• new generation of “urban
extensions” modelled on the post-
war new-town expansion
• Introduce a new generation of Urban
Development Corporations
• Public sector land and Council
building
• Strategic Planning
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
1. Introduction
2. Current issues in planning for housing
3. Local Plans and Housing Needs
4. 5 Year Supply Update
5. Implications
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
• Over 50% of LPAs do not have an
NPPF-compliant Local Plan
• A further 24% have Published /
Submitted a Plan for Examination
• Only 19% of LPAs have an NPPF
compliant plan found sound at
Examination or adopted Post NPPF
• Slow progress
• Many Local Plans still upin the air
Local Plan Progress
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Meeting Objectively Assessed Needs (OAN)
“Local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the
development needs of their area;
Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs … unless any adverse impacts
of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits when
assessed against the policies in this Framework as a while; or
Specific policies in this Framework indicate development should be restricted.”
Paragraph 17 of the NPPF states that “every effort should be made objectively to
identify and then meet the housing … needs of an area”
Paragraph 47 states that “local planning authorities should use their evidence base
to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market
and affordable housing”
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
NPPF, PPG and Case law is defining
approach to OAN
• PPG establishes
starting point
(projections) and
upward adjustments
• Hunston and Gallagher
clarify approach
Starting Point: Government Projections
Sensitivity test for:
• Latest data
• Local demographic factors
Demographic Based Need
Uplift or adjustment required for:
• Market Signals?
• Economic/ Employment Alignment?
• Meeting affordable housing needs?
Concluded Full Objectively Assessed Needs
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
The OAN evidence arms race
• Evidence arms race
• Housing Market Area
• Duty to cooperate / unmet needs
• Status of projections and headship Rates
• New projs due early in 2015
• Economic forecasts
• Market signals
• Affordable housing need
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
OAN drives plan-preparation and 5YHLS
• Developers increasing their
involvement in Plan
Preparation
• Seeking to ensure a higher
OAN is adopted by LPAs
• Or to bring down the plan
and maintain vacuum
• Also Important in formulating
5 year supply arguments post
adoption of plans
• Once adopted – plan-led
decisions
• = significant problems for
many LPAs
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Sustainability Appraisal
• An increasing Achilles heal for many plans?
• Iterative process
• Reasonable alternatives tested
• Levels of growth and distribution?
• Relationship to how needs are met across HMAs?
• Strategic planning by the back door?
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
1. Introduction
2. Current issues in planning for housing
3. Local Plans and housing needs
4. 5 Year Supply Update
5. Implications
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Why is Five Year Land Supply important?
• 5YHLS continues to enable the release of good unallocated sites:
• If cannot demonstrate a five year supply (NPPF, para 47)
• Housing Supply policies are out of date (NPPF, para 49)
• Presumption in favour of sustainable development (NPPF, para 14)
• Permission should be granted unless adverse effects of doing so
would outweigh the benefits (but Green Belt / Green Wedges)
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
How are developers looking at 5YHLS?
Does the Council acknowledge a 5-year
land supply shortfall?
No Yes
Proceed to an
application before the
shortfall is taken-up by
competitors
Proceed to an
application before the
shortfall is taken-up by
competitors
Yes No
Pursue through Local
Plan process
Is there a good 5-year land supply shortfall case?
Assess the 5-year land supply position
Is the Council’s target
up-to-date and based
on an objective
assessment of need?
Has the Council applied
the correct 5% or 20%
buffer and addressed
under-supply?
Does the Council rely
on land supply that is
not deliverable?
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Where is 5YHLS a big planning issue?
• Many LPAs claim to have a 5YHLS, but the following factors sometimes
mean they do not:
1. No adopted plan
2. No up to date, tested evidence on needs
3. Not taken on board neighbouring unmet need
4. Applies 5% buffer rather than 20%
5. Applies ‘Liverpool’ rather than ‘Sedgefield’
6. Supply includes sites without permission
7. Old sites with extant permission included
8. Sites with unrealistic delivery assumptions
Requirement
increases
Supply
decreases
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Use Class C2
• LPAs can count Class C2 Uses (OAP & student housing), against their housing requirement. (NPPG)
• Not properly tested at appeal but should:
• Be part of OAN
• Consider gains and losses
• Consider whether housing has been released (student)
• BUT, if not included in OAN, then exclude from supply
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Appeal and Court Decisions
• 5YHLS not an exact science and is a question of judgement (Cotswold DC, High
Court Decision)
• The historic time period over which to calculate undersupply is a matter of
judgement for the decision-maker (Cotswold DC, High Court Decision)
• Looking at the number of years where a Council has under/oversupplied
housing is too simplistic (Wiltshire Council, November 2013)
• The housing target used to calculate the 5YHLS is the most up to date that has
been examined in public (South Northamptonshire DC, August 2013)
• The economic downturn is not a reasonable justification for undersupplying
(Hinckley & Bosworth BC, January 2014 )
• Emerging allocations in the Local Plan can be included as part of the 5YHLS
provided they are deliverable (Teignbridge DC, September 2013)
• Windfalls are allowed in the supply calculations provided there is a robust
evidence base supporting them (Teignbridge DC, September 2013)
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Appeal & Court Decisions
• Planning Inspectors have recently moved away from drawing
conclusions on a LPA’s exact 5YHLS position. Instead, they are simply
stating whether the LPA has demonstrated 5YHLS or not.
“I conclude that the Council does not have a 5 year supply and the
proposed development is necessary to meet the housing needs of the
district” (Wychavon DC, July 2014)
“I conclude that the Council is unable to demonstrate a five year supply
of deliverable housing sites” (Cotswold District Council, September
2014)
• Developers cannot necessarily rely on previous decisions need to do
the work for them as circumstances may change
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
1. Introduction
2. Current issues in planning for housing
3. Local Plans and housing needs
4. 5 Year Supply Update
5. Implications
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Implications
• Day to day, planning for housing over next couple of years will be dominated by Local Plans / 5YHLS
• Looking ahead, increasing focus on:
• Housing delivery trajectories
- Will large sites deliver?
- lead-in times, infrastructure timing and build rates
- Portfolio of sites to spread risk?
• Neighbourhood plans
• Larger-than-local Plans
• London and large city overspill feeding through to LP reviews
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building
Read more / Contact
• Matthew Spry – Senior Director
• 0207 837 4477
• www.nlpplanning.com
The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building