The Madden-Julian Oscillation andExtremes in North American Precipitation

Adam Stepanek, Tom Murphree, Chuck WashDept of Meteorology

Naval Postgraduate School

22nd Pacific Climate Workshop 28 March 2006

Overview of Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs)  1. major and complex disturbances of the global tropical atmosphere-

ocean system2. propagating intraseasonal (~ 1-2 months) oscillations3. usually start in tropical Indian - W Pacific region4. have largest amplitude in tropical Indian - Pacific region5. propagate E-ward through the tropics6. may propagate around globe, especially as UL disturbance7. period 30-60 days 45 days8. zonal wave length Earth’s circumference9. occur throughout the year10. may have large impacts on global tropics and extratropics11. have impacts on midlatitude climate 12. strong atmosphere-ocean coupling makes them difficult to analyze

and model

Evidence of MJOsSea Level Pressure, Equator and 180E, May – Oct 1979

Figure from R. Madden, 31 Aug 2005

45 days

Evidence of MJOsTemperature, Upper Ocean, Equator and 155W, Aug 1991 – Jul 1992

45 days

T 125 m

T 150 m

MJO Structure: Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, Phases 1-8

convective anomaly subsidence anomaly

convectivecomponent

subsidencecomponent 1

2

3

4

5

8

7

6

= positive heating anomaly = energy propagation through wave train

Modeled Tropospheric Response to Western Tropical PacificPositive Heating Anomaly in Northern Winter

MJOs and Teleconnections

H

HHL

L

= dry air advection

= moist air advection

MJOs and Teleconnections

Figure from: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/intraseasonal_faq.html#what

cf. Higgins and Mo, J Clim, 1997

Relationships Between Propagating Tropical Positive Convection Anomaly and North Pacific – North American Circulation and Precipitation Anomalies

Z 200 Anomalies, Dec 1996 – Jan 1997MJOs and Teleconnections

During Dec 96 - Jan 97:1. Weak La Nina conditions in tropical Pacific2. Intense MJO activity in Indian Ocean – western tropical Pacific3. Anomalously heavy precipitation and flooding in N CA, OR, WA4. Anomalously low precipitation in SW US5. Extratropical wave train similar to expected for MJO convection in

tropical E IO – W Pacific

Other examples of MJO impacts on west coast precipitation?Jan 92, Feb 93, Jan 95, Oct–Nov 03, Dec 04 – Jan 05, Dec 05 - Jan 06

Importance of the MJO forNorth Pacific - North American (NPNA) Climate 1. MJO impacts NA climate on intraseasonal scale.

2. Cumulative and indirect effects of MJO may affect NA climate on longer time scales.

3. EN and LN are not the only explanation for NPNA anomalies.

4. MJO has significant interactions with longer period tropical climate variations (e.g., ENLN, IOZM, Asian monsoon variations).

5. EN and LN have large event-to-event variability that may be explained by interactions with other climate variations.

6. MJO may be a good dynamical proxy for longer period tropical climate variations more MJO samples to analyze.

Teleconnections Between Tropical Eastern Hemisphere andNorth Pacific - North America

From Schwing, Murphree, and Green, 2002. The Northern Oscillation Index: A New Climate Index for the Northeast Pacific. Progress in Oceanography, 53, 115-139.

Correlation of annual mean sea level pressure at 35N, 135W withsea level pressure globally

Motivations and Objectives 1. Prior studies implicated MJO in positive and negative precipitation

anomalies in western NA in fall-winter (e.g., Bond and Vecchi 2003, Jones 2000, Higgins and Mo 1997, Mo and Higgins 1998).

2. But many unresolved issues, including relevance to NPNA of: a. MJO phase b. MJO amplitude b. subsidence component of MJO c. season of MJO occurrence d. concurrent EN or LN events

Data 

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields:• 200-hPa geopotential height anomaly (ZA200)• Outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRA)• Precipitation rate anomaly (PRA)

MJO Index:• Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) Index (Wheeler and Hendon,

MWR, 2004)• Based on tropical OLR, U850 winds and U200 winds

El Nino / La Nina (EN/LN) Index (Wolter and Timlin, 1993, 1998): • Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) • Based on six tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean variables

Methods

No band pass filtering, unlike prior studies

Constructed all possible 7-day lagged composites according to four factors:

1. MJO phase (1-8)2. MJO amplitude (low, medium, high)3. MJO season of occurrence (OND, JFM, ONDJFM)4. ENLN background state (EN, LN, or neutral)

From composites, identified MJO-related circulation and anomaly patterns that characterized positive and negative precipitation anomalies in four regions of western NA.

Z200 Anomaly

Wave train from east Asia to NPNA

MJO Convection

MJO Subsidence

Precip Rate Anomaly

Wet in PNW and BC

Composites for: Phase 3, All Amplitudes, ONDJFM, andAll Background States

NPNA response to MJO is affected by MJO phase. Effects can be dramatic. Likely causes: shifts in convective and subsidence components leads to changes in

interactions with east Asia - North Pacific jet.

Composites for: All Amplitudes, ONDJFM, and all Background States, by Phase

Phase 6 Phase 8

Phase 3

NPNA response to MJO affected by season. Effects can be dramatic. Likely causes: seasonal changes in location of convection and subsidence, and in strength, location,

shear of east Asia - North Pacific jet.

OND JFM

ONDJFM

Composites for: Phase 3, All Amplitudes, and all Background States, by Season

EN or LN have large impacts on NPNA response to MJO, and vice versa. Cause: interference between convective and subsidence components.

ZA200 Composites for: Phase 3, All Amplitudes, and ONDJFM, by Background State

All States

El Nino La Nina

Neutral

5 Wettest Composites 5 Driest CompositesPhase 2 / El Niño / OND Phase 7 / La Niña / OND

Phase 2 / Neutral / OND Phase 3 / La Niña / JFM

Phase 6 / Neutral / OND Phase 4 / Neutral / JFM

Phase 1 / El Niño / JFM Phase 7 / La Niña / JFM

Phase 7 / El Niño / JFM Phase 8 / Neutral / JFM

MJO and Background Factors for 5 Wettest and 5 Driest Compsites for California

EN and LN effects evident. But MJO effects evident in wave train from east Asia, and deviations of composites from EN and LN means. N-S dipole in

western NA.

Wet in CA

Dry in CA

MJO-Related Composite Circulation and Precip Anomalies for Wet and Dry Conditions in CA

Favorable / Unfavorable Conditions for MJO-AssociatedAnomalously Wet Conditions in CA

Favorable Unfavorable1. Early or late phases of the MJO 2. OND or JFM3. El Niño or neutral background state 4. Wave train from Asia with anomalouslow north and west of CA5. Southwest to northeast tilt to the anomalous low off CA

1. La Niña background state2. Middle phases of the MJO

Favorable / Unfavorable Conditions for MJO-AssociatedAnomalously Dry Conditions in CA

Favorable Unfavorable1. Middle or late phases of the MJO 2. JFM3. La Niña background state4. Anomalous high over northeastern Pacific

1. Early phases of the MJO 2. El Nino background state

Favorable and Unfavorable Factors for Wet and Dry Conditions in California

Corresponding results for PNW, BC, and AK regions (not shown)

Conclusions 1. There are understandable patterns in MJO impacts on NPNA.

2. EN and LN are not the only explanation for NPNA anomalies.

3. MJO interactions with EN and LN are important for NPNA.

4. Both the convective and the subsidence components of MJO, EN, and LN must be accounted for.

5. NPNA response to MJO is more persistent if MJO amplitude is high --- perhaps because MJO amplitude and phase speed are inversely related.

6. Event-to-event variability of EN and LN may be explained in part by interactions of EN and LN with MJO, and vice versa.

7. Analyses and modeling of climate variations needs to account for multiple concurrent variations (e.g., concurrent EN and MJO).