Economic Update
Seamus Coffey
Actual Performance
Internal Position• Employment and the Labour Market
• Record employment (>2.3m)
• Low unemployment (<5%)
External Position•Balance of Payments and Exports
• Current account surplus (6% of GNI*)
• Strong export growth (+9% y-on-y)
Potential Risks
Internal
•The Public Finances • Public Debt (€210bn)
• Corporation Tax (€11bn)
External
• International Trade• Tariffs/Trade Disputes
• Corporation tax
•Overheating• Housing (21,000)
• Wages (+4%)
• Brexit
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
mill
ion
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Seasonally Adjusted
Unadjustedeconomic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO Ireland: QNHS, Table QNQ03
Total employment 2005-2019, seasonally adjusted quarterly data
Number Employed
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
000s o
f P
eople
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source:CSO Ireland: QNHS, Table QNQ03
Change in the total number of people employed
Annual Change in Employment
400
500
Pa
rt-T
ime
, 0
00
s
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
F
ull-
Tim
e, 000s
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Full Time (LHS) Part Time (RHS)
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Statistics Office
Full- and part-time employment, 2008-2019
Numbers Employed
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Ireland: Unemployment Rate 1923-Source: Stuart and Gerlach (2016)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
€m
illio
n
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO, Non-Financial Institutional Sector Accounts
Quarterly compensation of employees received, €million
Household Accounts: Employee Compensation Received
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
%G
NI, %
GN
I*
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
National Accounts Historical Series (1970-1995)
Modified Current Account, various (1995-2018)
Source: CSO - Balance of Payments, (Historic) National Accounts
Headline and Modified Current Account Balance, 1970-1995 (%GNI), 1995-2018 (%GNI*)
Balance of Payments: Current Account
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% G
NI*
Savings minus InvestmentGross Savings less Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Domesic Sectors, % GNI*
Households GovernmentForeign Corps/Redoms* Domestic Financial CorpsDomestic Non-Financial Corps Not SectorisedCurrent Account*
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
€m
illio
n
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
2018
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: CSO - Non-Financial Institutional Sector Accounts
Four-Quarter Moving Sum of Net Lending/(Borrowing) of the Household Sector
Household Sector: Net Lending
0
50
100
150
200
€bill
ion
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Loans
Deposits
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Bank of Ireland, Quarterly Finanacial Accounts
Total currency and deposits assets and loan liabilities of the household sector
Household Sector: Loans and Deposits
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
€m
illio
n
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Entrepreneurial Income
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Central Statistics Office
Nominal entrepreneurial Income (including subsidies less taxes) from Agriculture, 2000-2017(e)
Agriculture: Entrepreneurial Income
Potential Risks
Internal
•The Public Finances • Public Debt (€210bn)
• Corporation Tax (€11bn)
External
• International Trade• Tariffs/Trade Disputes
• Corporation tax
•Overheating• Housing (21,000)
• Wages (+4%)
• Brexit
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