The Cyprus Economy
Nicos S. Kyriakides
Partner - Head of Financial Advisory Services
Deloitte Cyprus
Moscow, 09 June 2015
Two years after the financial crisis
1. Cyprus at a Glance
2. The Crisis of March 2013 and the Road to Recovery
3. Current Macroeconomic Outlook
4. Competitive Advantages & Tax Framework
5. Investment Opportunities
Contents
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 2
Cyprus at a Glance
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 3
Cyprus at a Glance Republic of Cyprus – Basic Data
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 4
• Cyprus is the south eastern outpost of the EU, located
in the east Mediterranean at the crossroads of three
continents; Europe, Asia and Africa
• It is the third largest and third most populous island in
the Mediterranean
• It covers an area of 9,251 Km² and its total population
was 866,000 as per the last census in 2012.
(1.100.000 including the occupied areas)
• The Republic of Cyprus is an independent state with a
presidential system, and a member state of the EU
since 2004
• Cyprus has joined the Eurozone since 1 January 2008
and as a result its official currency is the Euro (€)
The Crisis of March 2013 and
Road to Recovery
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 5
The banking crisis caused by the large size of the sector.
Main contributors leading to the Eurogroup Decision of March 2013:
• Accumulated imbalances from large deposit inflows to the two major Cypriot
Banks (BOCY and CPB)
• The banks’ exposure to the Greek economy (loan operations and investments
in Greek Government Bonds) and the haircut of the Greek public debt
• The excessive credit expansion abroad and domestically deteriorating loan
quality in Cyprus (especially for real estate projects), eroding depositor
confidence
• Rapid fiscal deterioration and reduced economic activity due to international
financial crisis and bursting of the housing bubble
• Weak prudential supervision
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
The events of March 2013
6 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Eurogroup decision led to:
• The Greek operations of the two main banks and HB were sold out to Bank of
Piraeus, thus ring fencing Cyprus banking sector from Greece
• Subsequently, the two main banks were subject to a restructuring by means of
resolution, which involved the immediate bail-in of subordinated debt
• Uninsured deposits were subject to a bail-in, implying a deposit-to-share swap,
which at Bank of Cyprus eventually reached 47,5%
• The capital required for CPB and of BOCY to be adequately capitalised
exceeded 50% of Cypriot GDP and was covered exclusively through the
contributions of uninsured depositors with full contribution of equity shareholders
and bond holders
• The third largest bank was bailed out from funds borrowed from Troika
The events of March 2013
7 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
• After the announcement of the banks’ resolution on 25 March 2013, in order to
prevent massive liquidity outflows and a collapse of the banking system, Cypriot
authorities imposed capital controls of a temporary nature, on funds held in the
system at the time
• New funds injected into the Cypriot economy after March 2013 were not subject to
any restrictions. Foreign banks were allowed to continue serving their international
clients without any significant restrictions
• The capital controls imposed started gradually to be relaxed. In June 2014, all
domestic capital controls were lifted
• All remaining restrictive measures for funds that were present in the Cypriot banking
system before March 2013, were lifted on 6 April, 2015
Restrictions in place
8 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
Following the events described earlier, an economic adjustment was needed to recapitalise
banks and provide financing for the government.
The program which was agreed with our lenders; IMF, EC, ECB and is monitored by them,
addresses short-term and medium-term financial, fiscal and structural challenges with
measures under 3 pillars:
Banking sector: Enhanced supervision, greater liquidity and recapitalisation of banks to
rebuild confidence in the banks by depositors and the market
Public finances: Fiscal consolidation for correcting the excessive general government
deficit by year 2016 and achieving surpluses thereafter
Structural measures: Aimed at enhancing competitiveness and returning to a sustainable
and balanced growth path. Such measures include the enhancement of the Budgetary
Framework to safeguard fiscal discipline, labour market reforms to contain wage costs,
pension reforms to ensure long-term sustainability, health care sector reform and reform
of the public sector to improve service to businesses and citizens
Also, the privatisation of state owned monopolies is expected to enhance competitiveness in
key sectors and raise a significant amount for the repayment of government debt. A total
revenue target of the Privatisations Programme is €1,4bln.
The Economic Adjustment Programme
9 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
• We have had 5 positive review missions confirming that the programme is “on track”. As a
result, by early October 2014, Cyprus had received 5 bail-out tranches, amounting to €5,77bn
of the €10bn EUIMF funds
• The 6th bail-out tranche (€436m) remained incomplete at €350mln due to Cyprus not
implementing the foreclosures legislation on time. However, the legislation has now been
implemented and the 6th review mission has been concluded subject to approval by the EU
and IMF. The conclusion of this review means that Cyprus would now qualify for participation in
the ECB’s quantitative easing programme to buy government bonds
• As per the Economic Adjustment Programme, real GDP was initially projected to contract by
12,5% cumulatively in the period from 2013 to 2014, with growth expected to rebound in 2015
and remain close to 2% over the long run
• However, the Cypriot Economy performed better than expected during 2013-2014 and
hopefully might exit the programme earlier than expected which is in year 2016
• It is important to note that Standard & Poor’s has re-affirmed its long term and short term
ratings at B+ and B, revising its outlook to positive from stable in March 2015
• In April 2015, Fitch affirmed their Cyprus long term and short term ratings to B- and B
respectively with a positive outlook. Fitch also expects that Cyprus will not need to use the
entire €10bln international bail-out package due to strong budget performance
Review Missions and Disbursements
10 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
• The size of the sector has been reduced and the deposit base has been broadly
stabilised
• Four systemic financial institutions in Cyprus, namely Bank of Cyprus, Hellenic
Bank, the Cooperatives and RCB Bank, representing about 80% of asset base,
are directly supervised by the European Central Bank under SSM as of November
2014
• The 4 banks had participated in the comprehensive assessment (Asset Quality
Reviews and Stress testing) conducted by the ECB in October 2014
• The results of the comprehensive assessment were satisfactory, having only one
of the Cypriot systemic banks needing additional capital, which was successfully
raised in excess of the stress test capital needs
• The Capital Adequacy ratios currently remain at high levels
Financial Sector: Stabilisation process - Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)
11 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
• The outflow of deposits from the Cyprus banking system has slowed down significantly after
the sudden drop of March 2013. More stability is observed in recent months
Total deposits outstanding
12 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
60.000
65.000
70.000
75.000
Dec-
07
Mar-
08
Jun-0
8
Sep-0
8
Dec-
08
Mar-
09
Jun-0
9
Sep-0
9
Dec-
09
Mar-
10
Jun-1
0
Sep-1
0
Dec-
10
Mar-
11
Jun-1
1
Sep-1
1
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec-
14
Mar-
15
Total deposits, outstanding amounts (€m)
Total deposits of non-MFIs held with MFIs
Source: Central Bank of Cy prus, Monetray and Financial Statistics, April 2015
• Focus on resilient sectors of the economy: tourism, business services, shipping –
sectors that do not heavily depend on credit in the short-term but more on cash
flow
• Restore investor confidence via structural reforms in fiscal governance and
banking sector
• Promote Investment opportunities from privatization projects
• Tourism: expand tourist season to reduce seasonality, diversify markets and
products, focus on markets with high return, increase competitiveness by
providing more value-added services
• Business services: diversify source and nature of professional services providers
(financial services), promote the new AIFs regime and expand double tax treaties
network
Road to Recovery
13 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Crisis of March 2013 and Road to Recovery
Current Macroeconomic
Outlook
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 14
Current Macroeconomic Outlook Macroeconomic Indicators
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 15
• Real GDP declined by 5,4% in 2013 compared with an anticipated decline of 8,7% included in
the economic adjustment programme
• Further contraction is estimated for 2014 due to a fall in wages, high unemployment, the banks
being forced to tackle nonperforming loans and a hit on tourism by the collapse of the Russian
rouble, the currency of the second largest tourism market for Cyprus. For 2015, further
contraction is expected mainly due to reduced Russian tourism arrivals
• The unemployment rate is estimated to peak at 16,1% in 2014 and now appears to trend lower,
expected to reach approx. 15,6% by 2016
Description 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015b 2016b
GDP
Nominal GDP (€ m) 19.487 19.411 18.119 17.507 16.788 16.623
Real GDP growth (%) 0,3% (2,4%) (5,4%) (2,3%) (0,4%) 1,0%
Unemployment
Recorded unemployment (av; %) 7,9% 11,9% 15,9% 16,1% 15,9% 15,6%
Components of GDP (% real change)
Private consumption 1,8% (0,7%) (6,0%) 0,4% 1,5% 2,0%
Government consumption 0,7% (2,7%) (4,9%) (8,7%) (6,0%) (0,4%)
Gross fixed investment (9,4%) (20,6%) (17,1%) (18,8%) (8,0%) (5,0%)
Exports of goods & services 4,2% (1,7%) (5,0%) 5,7% 4,8% 3,8%
Imports of goods & services (0,6%) (4,6%) (13,6%) 8,1% 5,7% 4,1%
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, Cyprus
Notes: (a) Actual, (b) Economist Intelligence Unit estimates, (c) Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Macroeconomic Indicators
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 16
• In 2016, it is expected that the economy will return to a growth trajectory, although
this is likely to take some time, since banks will be extremely careful to whom they
lend and on which projects. They will avoid highly leveraged corporations and
households and the deleveraging process in all sectors is expected to continue
Description 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015b 2016b
GDP
Nominal GDP (€ m) 19.487 19.411 18.119 17.507 16.788 16.623
Real GDP growth (%) 0,3% (2,4%) (5,4%) (2,3%) (0,4%) 1,0%
Unemployment
Recorded unemployment (av; %) 7,9% 11,9% 15,9% 16,1% 15,9% 15,6%
Components of GDP (% real change)
Private consumption 1,8% (0,7%) (6,0%) 0,4% 1,5% 2,0%
Government consumption 0,7% (2,7%) (4,9%) (8,7%) (6,0%) (0,4%)
Gross fixed investment (9,4%) (20,6%) (17,1%) (18,8%) (8,0%) (5,0%)
Exports of goods & services 4,2% (1,7%) (5,0%) 5,7% 4,8% 3,8%
Imports of goods & services (0,6%) (4,6%) (13,6%) 8,1% 5,7% 4,1%
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, Cyprus
Notes: (a) Actual, (b) Economist Intelligence Unit estimates, (c) Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
Macroeconomic Indicators
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 17
• Consumer prices decreased by 2,3% in 2013. Deflationary pressures were estimated to
continue in 2014 with deflation expected to be -1,5%. For years 2015 and 2016, it is expected
to have positive inflation rates, which will gradually increase
• In 2013, the general government budget deficit decreased to -4,9% of GDP, from -5,8% in
2012. According to the Public Debt Management Office newsletter for February 2015, the
overall fiscal deficit for 2014 has already been effectively eliminated at -€7mln (i.e. 0% of
GDP). It is expected that in 2015 the deficit will be close to -0,7% of GDP. After 2016, the
deficit is expected to be at lower levels than 2016
• The government debt/GDP ratio was 102,2% in 2013. It is estimated that the debt/GDP ratio
will peak in 2015, at 109,1% of GDP and it will drop further in 2016 onwards
Description 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015b 2016b
Prices
Consumer prices (end-period; %) 3,9% 1,1% (2,3%) (1,5%) 1,1% 1,1%
Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)
Public-sector balance (budget deficit) (5,8%) (5,8%) (4,9%) - (0,7%) (1,2%)
Public-sector debt interest payments 2,2% 2,9% 3,1% 2,8% 2,9% 3,0%
Public-sector primary balance (3,6%) (2,9%) (1,8%) 2,8% 2,2% 1,8%
Gross public debt 66,0% 79,5% 102,2% 106,8% 109,1% 106,9%
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, Cyprus
Notes: (a) Actual, (b) Economist Intelligence Unit estimates, (c) Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
Real Estate Price Index (RICS Cyprus)
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 18
• The Property Price Index has recorded falls in almost all cities and asset classes, with
houses and offices having more resistance to the drop
Source: RICS Cyprus Property Price Index, 4Q2014
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
2014 Nominal GVA, by sector
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 19
Source: Cyprus Statistical Service, National Accounts 2014
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
2,4%
0,1%
5,0%
1,6%1,0%
2,8%
14,6%
6,5%7,4%
4,4%
8,9%
11,5%
7,7%
1,1%
10,2%
6,6%
4,0%
1,5% 1,7%1,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
7,7%
89,9%
Foreign Direct Investment
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 20
• The Foreign Direct Investment in Cyprus suffered a significant drawback in the years 2012
and 2013 due to the crisis
Source: Central Bank of Cyprus Statistics
Current Macroeconomic Outlook
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 21
• The yield on the 10-year Government Bond suffered a significant increase in 2012 and for
most of 2013 reflecting the uncertainty, and started dropping since the end of last year. It
currently stands just below 3,5%
Source: Bloomberg
Cyprus 10-year Government Bond Yield Current Macroeconomic Outlook
62%15%
8,50%
4,50%
2%3,50%
3%
Distribution by Region
UK
Germany / Austria /Switzerland
Southern Europe
France / Benelux
Nordics
Cyprus
Source: Public Debt Management Of f ice, Press Release dated 30 April 2015
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 22
• The Republic of Cyprus priced on 28 April 2015,
a €1bln “Reg S” registered fixed rate note with
maturity date being 6 May 2022
• The bond pays a coupon of 3,875% and has a
reoffer price of 99,250 i.e. reoffer yield is 4%
giving a spread of 367bps over mid-swaps rate
• The order book included more than 140
investors with broad geographic distribution
and with the largest investor classes being
Fund Managers, Hedge Funds and Private
Banks
• Joint lead managers were Barclays, HSBC,
Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale
• The bonds’ listing is in London under English
law and is part of the Republic of Cyprus
EMTN programme
New issue of Cyprus 7-year Government Bond Current Macroeconomic Outlook
45%
39,50%
13,50%
2%
Distribution by Investor Type
Fund Managers
Hedge Funds
Banks / PrivateBanks
Others
Source: Public Debt Management Of f ice, Press Release dated 30 April 2015
Competitive Advantages &
Tax Framework
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 23
Competitive Advantages & Tax Framework
Republic of Cyprus – Ideal Jurisdiction
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 24
Strategic Location and time zone
Political stability and well developed ties with
ME, Central & Eastern Europe
Advanced infrastructure – reliable
telecommunication system, two international
airports (Larnaca & Paphos) and two ports
(Limassol & Larnaca)
Robust Legal and Regulatory Framework with a
well developed financial services sector –
banking, investment and fund management
Highly educated and multilingual human talent
with tertiary education – (39,2% in age group 25
– 64) being higher than EU28 average and one
of the highest in the world
Competitive Advantages & Tax Framework
Republic of Cyprus – Ideal Jurisdiction
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 25
High quality of professional
services: Top quality accounting,
auditing, tax, business
administration, legal
Good quality of life – A safe country
to live and work – A Mediterranean
country with an international
business environment
Investment Incentives in a number
of sectors, with huge potential for
growth e.g. tourism, natural gas,
infrastructure, privatisations, etc.
Competitive Advantages & Tax Framework
Republic of Cyprus – Tax Framework
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 26
Well developed and attractive tax system,
one of the most favourable in the EU
Simplified, effective, transparent and fully
compliant with EU laws and regulations
Corporate tax rate at 12,5%
Dividend income, overseas PE profits and
profits or gains from the disposal of
securities are exempt from taxation
Favourable IP, Royalty & financing structures
regime
Extensive network of double tax treaties
(currently 55)
Ability to use the EU Directives
Unilateral credit relief
Low or zero withholding taxes
Investment Opportunities
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 27
Investment Opportunities
Reasons to invest in Cyprus
28 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
Investment Incentives: A number of measures has been put in place by the
Government to stimulate foreign direct investment and economic growth. These
measures include:
Reduced the time required to issue planning permission to a maximum of one
month for small projects and three months for large projects
Increased building coefficients by 30% in residential areas for large commercial
developments. Coefficient will be increased by 25% on the outskirts of residential
areas for large commercial or office developments. It will increase by 20% in
certain tourist zones for large-scale projects and from 10% to 15% for areas
available for golf courses
Permits for joint tourist developments such as condo hotels
Foreign nationals encouraged to invest in Cyprus by being given permanent
residency status (€300k) and citizenship by exception if they invest in real estate,
financial assets or companies operating in Cyprus (€5m in total reduced to €3m if
through a collective scheme)
Investment Opportunities
Reasons to invest in Cyprus
29 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
• Vote of confidence by international investors:
Wilbur Ross with a group of investors have recently invested over €400
million in Bank of Cyprus resulting in the acquisition of 19% of the
institution’s equity capital, showing confidence in the Cypriot Economy’s
potential for growth
EBRD invested also in the share capital of Bank of Cyprus during the
recapitalisation exercise in late 2014
International investors, Wargaming.net and North American hedge fund
Third Point LLC, acquired a 30% stake each in the share capital of
Hellenic Bank. They have also fully supported the Rights Issue for
meeting the EBA stress test capital needs
• Hotel & Tourism: A number of opportunities exist for investing in large scale development
projects related to the Hotel & Tourism sectors. These large scale developments aim to
develop further the current infrastructure, add value and reduce seasonality for the Cypriot
touristic product. Examples of such projects include:
Golf courses
Marinas
Hotels and Condominiums
Theme Parks
A world-class integrated casino resort
• Medical and Wellness Centres
• Education
Investment Opportunities
Investment Sectors
30 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
According to the Cyprus
Statistical Service, tourist
arrivals in the period
January – December 2014
increased by 1,5% to
2.441.239 compared to
2.405.390 in the
corresponding period for
2013.
Investment Opportunities
Investment Sectors
31 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The Limassol
Marina
Investment Opportunities
Investment Sectors
32 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
According to the Cyprus
Statistical Service, tourist
arrivals in the period
January – December 2014
increased by 1,5% to
2.441.239 compared to
2.405.390 in the
corresponding period for
2013.
The Makronissos
Marina
Investment Opportunities
Investment Sectors
33 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
According to the Cyprus
Statistical Service, tourist
arrivals in the period
January – December 2014
increased by 1,5% to
2.441.239 compared to
2.405.390 in the
corresponding period for
2013.
Golf Courses
Investment Opportunities
Investment Sectors
34 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
According to the Cyprus
Statistical Service, tourist
arrivals in the period
January – December 2014
increased by 1,5% to
2.441.239 compared to
2.405.390 in the
corresponding period for
2013.
Real Estate
Developments
Renewable Energy: The National Action Plan
issued by the MECIT, has set a target to reach
RES energy production of 657GWh by 2020,
which will be equal to 16% of the total electricity
production in Cyprus
As a result, significant opportunities exist for
investment in large scale solar thermal and
photovoltaic projects
Already have installed capacity:
Wind - 147 MW
PVs - 41,1 MW
Biomass - 9,7 MW
Investment Opportunities
Investment Sectors
35 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
1st in the world for
solar energy use
for water
heating in
households
Investment Opportunities
Investment Sectors – Renewable Energy
36 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
According to the Cyprus
Statistical Service, tourist
arrivals in the period
January – December 2014
increased by 1,5% to
2.441.239 compared to
2.405.390 in the
corresponding period for
2013.
Oil & Gas: Deep-water natural gas reserves in Cyprus
Exclusive Economic Zone bring investment opportunities across
the oil & gas supply chain for domestic consumption but mainly
in export and related infrastructure.
At present, 6 offshore exploration licences and Production
Sharing Contracts have been granted. The first was for Block
12, issued to Noble Energy in October 2008. In January 2012,
Noble Energy announced a natural gas field discovery in
“Aphrodite” with a current estimated resource at 4,5 tcf. Drilling
in the “Onasagoras” and “Amathousa” areas of Block 9 by ENI
Kogas resulted in no exploitable quantities of hydrocarbons. The
consortium requested an extension for re-assessing its
geological model.
Also, the construction of a €300m storage and distribution
terminal of a total capacity of 848k m3 in Cyprus by VTTI,
connecting Europe and the Black Sea with markets in the
Middle East, Asia and and North Africa, is expected to transform
Cyprus into a regional energy hub.
Investment Opportunities Investment Sectors
37 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
The first license (Block
12) was issued to
Noble Energy in Oct
2008.
In Jan 2013, an ENI-
KOGAS consortium was
issued with licences for
Blocks 2, 3 and 9.
TOTAL E&P was issued
with licences
for Blocks 10 and 11 in
February 2013.
The Cyprus Economy Outlook
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 38
• The Economic Sentiment Indicator shows a steadily rising index for Cyprus converging
with both the EU-28 and the Euro-19 member states average and then surpassing them
Source: Eurostat
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
No
v-1
3
De
c-13
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-1
5
EU (28 countries)
Euro area (19 countries)
Cyprus
We should not let the economy to derail again, but keep the measures and the
discipline, even after exiting from the Programme
Keep interest rates low and even lower to finance growth
Adopt a One stop shop approach for large scale projects, reduce bureaucratic
procedures and introduce more coordination between the government
departments involved
Promote Cyprus to the markets abroad and restore confidence of international
investors
We rely to a great extent on our Russian friends who already know the Cyprus
market and they will certainly have an advantage in the process
You are all very welcome and warmly invited to do business in Cyprus or through
Cyprus!!
Concluding Remarks
39 © 2015 Deloitte Limited
Nicos S. Kyriakides
Deloitte Limited
Partner in charge of Limassol Office
Head of Financial Advisory Services
Maximos Plaza, Tower 1, 5th Floor,
213 Arch. Makariou III Avenue, CY-3030
Limassol, Cyprus
Main: + 357 25 868686 | Fax: +357 25 868600 | Mob: +357 99 611827
[email protected] | www.deloitte.com/cy
Contact Details
© 2015 Deloitte Limited 40
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