Texas Library
Association Diversity
Summit
April 8, 2014
San Antonio, Texas
Texas Population Characteristics,
Trends, and Projections
Growing States, 2000-2010
2
2000
Population*
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth
of the Hispanic population
Percent Change
Due to
Year* Population
Numerical
Change
Annual
Percent
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 49.65 50.35
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 54.94 45.06
2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 52.05 47.95
2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as
estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012
3
Total Estimated Population by County, 2012
4Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates
Along and east of I-35:
40% of land
86% of population
92% of population growth (2011-2012)
Legend
POPESTIMATE2012
71-10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,001-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,253,700
Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.
96 counties lost
population over the
two year period
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
popchg4201072012
LT 0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
20,001-80,000
80,001-161,252
Of counties that lost population
90% had net out migration
47% had natural decline
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
6
Percent Increase
1. Midland, Texas 4.6
2. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7
3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6
4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4
5. Odessa, Texas 3.4
6. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3
7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.0
8. Casper, Wyo. 3.0
9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9
10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
7
NumericIncrease
1. Harris, Texas 80,005
2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764
3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644
4. Dallas, Texas 45,827
5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880
6. King, Wash. 35,838
7. Travis, Texas 34,381
8. Orange, Calif. 34,017
9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997
10. Clark, Nev. 32,833
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
Percent Hispanic, Texas Counties, 2007-2011
8
Legend
tl_2013_us_state
PCT HISP 11 5YR
DP5_HC03_VC82
0-10%
11-20%
2-40%
41-75%
76-99%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011
Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012
9
mill
ion
s
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic
Percent of the population that is native born, Texas Counties, 2007-2011
10
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_County
DP2_HC03_VC130
40-70%
71-85%
86-90%
91-95%
96-100%
ACS_11_5YR_County
DP2_HC03_VC189
0.000000 - 3.000000
3.000001 - 5.000000
5.000001 - 10.000000
10.000001 - 20.000000
20.000001 - 36.500000
tl_2013_us_stateSource: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011
Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks Spanish and speaks English less than very well, Texas Counties, 2008-2012
11
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PctSpanEngLTVW
0-5%
5.1-10%
10.1-20%
20.1-35%
35.1-50%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black11%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
Hispanic or Latino
38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Un
der
1 y
ear
4 y
ears
8 y
ears
12
yea
rs
16
yea
rs
20
yea
rs
24
yea
rs
28
yea
rs
32
yea
rs
36
yea
rs
40
yea
rs
44
yea
rs
48
yea
rs
52
yea
rs
56
yea
rs
60
yea
rs
64
yea
rs
68
yea
rs
72
yea
rs
76
yea
rs
80
yea
rs
84
yea
rs
88
yea
rs
92
yea
rs
96
yea
rs
10
0 t
o 1
04
…
Po
pu
lati
on
Age
White (non-Hispanic)
Hispanic
13Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
NH White Male NH White Female
14Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male
Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
15Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male
NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
16Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Zero
.5 of 2000-2010
2000-2010
Migration Scenarios
17Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
18Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational Attainment
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older
State Ranking
High school diploma or equivalency or greater
81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA
and MS)
Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29
19Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009
19%
6%
71%
3%
20
67%
8%
15%
9%
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.
Less Than High SchoolCollege and Greater
Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using
Trended Rates, Texas
22
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%
18.1%
24.0%
29.9%
18.7%
9.3%
11.4%
20.4%
34.3%
22.1%
11.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / AssociateDegree
Bachelor's Degree Graduate or ProfessionalDegree
Per
cen
t o
f th
e C
ivili
an L
abo
r Fo
rce
Educational Attainment
2011 ACS
2030 Constant
2030 Trended
Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration ScenarioU.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Race/Ethnicity in 2011, and Projected for 2030 Using Constant Rates and
Using Trended Rates of Educational Attainment, Texas
23
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000White Black Hispanic Other
2011 ACS Estimate 2030 Projected Constant Educational Attainment
2030 Projected Trended Educational Attainment
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Demographics and Destiny
24
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
25
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.