Each arrival is bigger than the last
Arrival intervals shorten with time
exponential waves of technology
The ratchet
Evolution and Technology
have no reverse gear !
We survive at the behest of technology
More technology more people live
More progress per successive lifetime
EXPONENTIALs Confound us
More data/information generated this year than in
the previous 5000…
….and next year and the year after, and…
Solutions
Lots of simple solutions
to complex problems
they are
all
wrong!
failing sustainability strategies
Improving the efficiency of old industries, technologies, and methods
Recycling, reuse, repurposing
Today’s green energy solutions
A l l f a i l
in the
long term
Requirements easy to define
Easy to design
Easy to build
Predictable performance
SIMPLE SYSTEMS
Within human grasp and abilities
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics work
Complicated SYSTEMS
Requirements difficult to define
Difficult to design
Difficult to build
Difficult to understand
Predictable performance
Within human grasp and abilities
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics ‘mostly’ work
Complex SYSTEMS
Requirements often uncertain
Difficult/easy to specify
Difficult/easy to build
Unpredictable performance
Evolution and emergent behaviour
Beyond human grasp and abilities
Established wisdoms do not apply
Mathematics no longer works
No general lawsonly a meme !
BIO-TECH nano-TECH
AI
our future trajectoryNew industries, technologies, and methods
Multi-Disciplinary hot spot
OPEn hardware - printed functionalityNo assembly required - posting designs intend of shipping atoms
Trachea
Vertebral DiscInjection Molded
Breathing Lung
Pr inted & programmed replacements
IMMEDIATE IMPLICATIONS
Sensors more capable than anything we had before
Food production monitoring
Contamination detection
General ailment diagnosis
Early cancer detection
Explosives detection
+++
The migration of abilityHealth systems are not underfunded or broken,
they are the wrong model for the 21st Century
We will become the custodians of our own records and guardians of our own health… free at source when needed will become: ‘in your own hands’
The migration of abilityHealth systems are not underfunded or broken
They are the wrong model!
The migration of ability
From Laboratory to Hospital
From Hospital to Doctors Office
From Doctors Office to The Home
We are the typists, xerox, telephone
and computer operators, and soon
technology will see DIY medicine
overtake todays Victorian systems
Star trek BODY scanner is IN the lab phase today
artificial intelligence
Human intellect amplifier
Anticipatory search/analysis
Modelling/decision support
Complex problem solving
Natural language I/On o t t h e e n d
just a new
beginning
15
10
5
0
Estimated information half-life for different fields of study
Economics
Physics
Medicine
Software Marine Biology
Astro- Physics
Num
ber
of y
ears
aft
er p
ublic
atio
n
Past, Present & Future
Machines decoded the genome
Now working on proteins
They design our electronics
Manufacture our products
Enable new technologies
Power our research
And empower us !
Past, Present & Futurewhy do we employ people
The are
cheaper
than robots
They can do things
robots cannot
YOUWill experience far more tech change than I
Jobs
lost!
Typists Dockers Milkman
Blacksmith Secretaries
Drawing office Xerox operator
Elevator operator Computer operator
Telephone operator Comptometer operator
Financial report writers ++++
!
i n My l i fet ime
Jobs
to go!
Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services
Investment bankers Warehouse People Personal Assistant Tech suppor t
Stock Trader Receptionist Forecasters Train driver Researcher
Journalist Drivers Agents
Pilots
i n your l i fet ime
Jobs
to be
enhanc
ed
Fabricator Geneticist Generalist Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programmer
Complexity analysts Security Experts Entrepreneurs
Technologists Consultants Arch i t e c t s Detectives Designers Engineers Modellers Scientists
Medics
i n your l i fet ime
i n your l i fet ime
Jobs
to com
e!
3/4D Designer Risk Profilers
Cyborg Engineer Protein Designer Crime Predictor
Digital Historian Information Caretaker Truth Engine Mediator
Component Repurposer Genome-Protein Activators
Material Programmer Recycling Designers Interface Designers Machine Mediators Wisdom Archivists Genome Designer Material Designer Wisdom Monitors Trouble Shooters Nano-Engineers Bio-Engineers
TECHnology PRED ICT ION
I S EASY
What people and society
will do with it however
appears impossible
to forecast
And Now !!
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