SWAPAlgorithmVerificationTestoutbreaklibrary1/7/2016LosAlamosNationalLaboratoryDataDreamers
1
TableofContents
OBJECTIVE 2
EXAMPLESOFTESTOUTBREAKDATAINPUTANDEVALUATIONOFRESULTS 2
TESTOUTBREAKS-DETAILSANDRECOMMENDEDCUTOFFPERCENTAGE 1. Chikungunya 62. Cholera 73. Dengue 84. Ebola 95. FootandmouthDisease 106. Gastroenteritis 11-127. Influenza 138. Leptospirosis 149. Malaria 1510. Measles 1611. Meningococcaldisease 1712. Plague 1813. Q-fever 1914. Tularemia 2015. WestNilevirus 21
2
ObjectiveTheSWAPwebappusesanalgorithmtoassignpercentagesimilarity/matchscores
foruserinputandahistoricaloutbreakfromtheSWAPlibrary.Thisalgorithmrequiresdiseasespecificpropertiesandspecificweightsassociatedwitheachproperty.Outbreaksthatarenotincludedinthelibrarycanbeusedtotestthepropertiesandweightsofadiseasespecificalgorithm.WecollectedinformationfortestoutbreaksanduseditasinputfortheSWAPtoevaluateSWAPoutput.Theexpectedresultforthetestwasthatthetop1-5matchinghistoricaloutbreakswouldhavecasecountsanddurationsthatreflectthescenariointhetestoutbreak.
Wealsoevaluatedalowerlimitorthresholdmatchvalueforeachdiseaseforarelevantmatch.Therelevantmatchcutoffindicatesthepercentagematchbelowwhichthesimilaritiestohistoricoutbreakswerefoundtobe“notrelevant”.However,thisdoesnotmeanallmatchesaboveagivenpercentagewillberelevanttotheuserinputscenario.Forexample,ifthediseasehasacutoffthresholdof70%andthetop5SWAPcontains84-64%matchscore.Theresultsinterpretationmaybeasfollows:outbreakswithscoresbelow70%canbeignored.Afterevaluatinghistoricoutbreaksabove70%,itmaybedeterminedonlytop1andtop2arereasonablematches.Thethirdmatchdespiteamatchscoreof>70%maynotbearelevantmatchduetoimprobablyhighcasenumberand/orduration.Thediseasespecifictablescontainourreasoningfornon-matchingscenarios.Thenotessessionofthetablesarefreetext.
ThisdocumentcontainsuserinputinformationfortestoutbreaksusedforalloftheSWAPdiseases,thesimilarity/matchscorerangeforthetop5matches(inpercentage),thenumberofexpertdeterminedacceptablematchesintop5andthereasoning(notes).Aweblinktothetestoutbreakdatasourceisalsoprovided.
3
Examplesoftestoutbreakdatainputandevaluationofresults Figure1providesanexampleofuserinputquestionsfortheSWAPEbolaalgorithmandthetestoutbreakdetailsaregivenbelow.AsshownbelowtheinformationprovidedinthetablecanbeappliedbyaSWAPusertoreproducetheSWAPoutputLANLanalystsobtained.
SWAPoutputcanthenbecomparedtodatafromatestscenarioiftheinformationisavailable(Figure2).Inthecomparisongivenbelowthe2015EbolaoutbreakinSierraLeoneisexpectedtohave30-60casesandduration8-10weeks.Thetopmatch(74%)isthe1979Sudanoutbreakwith35casesanddurationoftwomonths.Thenexttwooutbreakshaveveryhighcasenumberscomparedto2015scenario.Thistypeofdataallowedatustodeterminealowerlimitforarelevantsimilarityscoreforeachdisease.
4
Table1containsacomparisonofpropertiesoftheBostonChipotleoutbreakcausedbynorovirusinlate2015andtopmatchingSWAPhistoricaloutbreaks.TheSWAPevaluationswereconductedduringday3,day5andday7ofthisunfoldingoutbreakandrangeofsimilarityscoresforthisscenariorangedfrom92-75%.Thedatashowsthatcasecountanddurationforthisoutbreakandthetopmatchinghistoricaloutbreaksareverysimilar.TheseresultsindicatethatSWAPevaluationscanbeperformedassoonassomeinformationoncasecount,timeandpropertiesareavailable.Informationobtainedcanthenbeusedtoenhanceandacceleratetheoutbreakinvestigation. Case
countTimeframe
Sourceofcontamination
Productorsiteevent
season
BostonChipotle
~150 ~10days Notknown Site/event winter
China2010 427 10days Water(norovirusdetectedfromterminalpointofwaterdeliverysystem
Site(highlylocalized)
winter
Israel1999 164 5days Saladvegetablesservedatamess
Site(occurredin
winter
5
hall+secondaryperson-to-person
amilitarybase)
USATexas1998
125 10days Cookedfoodpreparedbyanillpersonand+sodafountainarea
Site(occurredinmilitarybase)
autumn
Netherlands2009
130 12days water Site(studentsatarecreationalfountain)
summer
Table1:ComparisonofpropertiesforBostonchipotleoutbreaksandtopmatchingSWAPoutbreaks.Alltheoutbreakswerecausedbynorovirus.ThefollowingtablescontaindatausedfromtestoutbreaksforeachdiseaseintheSWAP.ASWAPusercanusethesetablestoruntheSWAP.
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Disease–Chikungunya
Montpellier,France2014
Guangdong,China2010
Brazil,2015 Florida,USAasofMay5,2015
FrenchPolynesia,2015
Location Montpellier,France
Guangdong,China
Brazil Florida,USA
FrenchPolynesia
Diseasestatus
Non-endemic Non-endemic Non-endemic Non-endemic
Non-endemic
PopulationatRisk
30,000-300,000
79million 200million 20million 300,000
Populationsusceptibility
Naive Naive Naive Naive Notnaive
Humandevelopmentindex
>0.8 0.719 0.744 0.914 Lessthan0.8
Outbreaktiming
Notsummer Notsummer Summer Notsummer
Summer
Casenumber 8 20 114confirmed6000suspected
21 70,000cases
Durationinformation
2015-07-01to2015-07-26
2015-07-01to2015-07-15
20-25weektimeline
5months 6months
link http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=21108
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3309566/
Pleasesearchthetitle.Itdownloadsapdffile.NumberofReportedCasesofChikungunyaFeverintheAmericas,byCountryorTerritory2015(toweeknoted)EpidemiologicalWeek/EW29(Updatedasof24July2015)
http://www.cdc.gov/chikungunya/pdfs/2015Table1-050515.pdf
http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/269097/french-polynesia-chikungunya-outbreak-over
Rangefortop5
87-69% 98-64% 75-61% 92-63% 67-51%
7
matches
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top4Toponeisaverygoodmatch.
Top3 Top4 Top2 The1stoneand4thone.Reasonfortop1&4beingbettermatch-locationcharacteristichavehighermatchtotestscenario
Notes Cutoffat70% Cutoffat70%
Recommendedlowerlimitforarelevantmatch–70%
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Disease–Cholera Nigeria2015 Myanmar2014 Malawi
09/10PNG09-10 Haiti2015
location Bayelsa,Nigeria Myanmar,southOkkalapatownship
Malawi PapuaNewGuinea
Haiti
DiseaseStatus
Endemic endemic endemic Non-endemic
endemic
Populationatrisk
1million 200,000 16million 7million 10million
Casenumber 23 234/380testedpositive
250 250 4000
Durationinformation
December24–January28
September27–October8
1months 3months 1month(beginningoftheoutbreak)
link http://allafrica.com/stories/201501281403.html
http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/11951-hundreds-infected-in-cholera-outbreak.html
http://www.who.int/cholera/countries/MalawiCountryProfile2010.pdf?ua
=1
http://www.who.int/cholera/countries/PapuaNewGuineaCountryProfile2010.pdf?ua=1
http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-13483-haiti-cholera-20-communes-on-red-alert.html
Rangefortop5matches
94-78 90-64 83-77% 71-68% 72-67%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top5 Top2 Top4Lastone
casecountabittoohigh
Top2 Top3
Notes Onlybeginningofoutbreakinfois
Cutoffvalue75% Cutoff70%
Cutoff70%
9
available
http://www.who.int/cholera/countries/en/
Recommendedcutoffmatch–70%
10
Disease–Dengue Singapore2015 TamilNadu,
India2015Cambodia2015 Belize2015 Brazil2014
Location Singapore TN,India Cambodia Belize Brazil
Maxpptn 11in 1 5.9 4 4
Casenumber
1463,99in7thweek 95 2688 110 200,000
Durationinformation
7weeks 1month 6months 16weeks
15weeks
link https://www.moh.gov.sg/content/dam/moh_web/Statistics/Infectious_Diseases_Bulletin/2015/February/2015_week_07.pdf
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/53-year-old-woman-first-dengue-death-spore-year
http://zeenews.india.com/news/health/health-news/9-die-of-dengue-in-tirunelveli-zone-this-month_1537402.html
http://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/13682/cambodia-reports-sharp-rise-in-dengue-fever-cases-in-1st-half-of-2015/
http://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_topics&view=article&id=1&Itemid=40734
(clickon2015)
http://portalsaude.saude.gov.br/images/pdf/2014/maio/29/BE-2014-45--4--semana-15.pdf
Rangefortop5matches
98-78% 66-44% 84-61% 71-40% 66-48%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top4Lastonecumulativecasecountistoohigh.
None Top3Last2cumulativecasecounttoohigh.
Top1 None.Thisisasecondyearhighratescenario
Notes Possiblecutoffat80%
ThereisfloodinginTNcurrently,anunusual
Possiblecutoffat70%
Possiblecutoffat70%
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situation.
Changingrainfallchangesmatchesabit
Recommendedcutoffmatch–70%
12
DiseaseEbola Guinea2015 Liberia2015 SierraLeone
2015Guinea2015
Location Guinea Monrovia,Liberia SierraLeone Guinea
Populationatrisk 12million 400,000 6million 12million
Physiciandensity 0.1 0.014 .022 0.1
HistoryofEbola yes yes yes yes
Contactwithbushmeatorbats
no No no no
Casenumberanddurationinformation
5oneday,27cumulative(timeperiodnotgiven
Tried5inonedayand27in2weeksand1month
6caseintwomonths,threecaseinpastweek
12in1weekand45in1month(answersonthewebsite
13in1week
47inonemonth(extendeddataisavailableonthelink)
link http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/us-health-ebola-guinea-idUSKBN0O01M220150515
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/07/15/ebola-liberia-epidemic-sierra-leone-guinea/30183429/
http://apps.who.int/ebola/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-5-august-2015
http://apps.who.int/ebola/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-5-august-2015
http://apps.who.int/ebola/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-5-august-2015
Rangefortop5matches
69-62%for1dayand2weeks,79-67%for1months
79-66% 73-58% 1week72-59%
1month–72-67%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top1 Possibly4(2ndoneisnotcorrect)
Top1Otherscumulativecasecounttoohigh.
13in1week–Top1
47in1month–Onlyonefromthetop5.BothscenariosmatchtoSudan1979.
13
Cumulativecasecounttoohighfornon-matchingoutbreaks
Notes Thisisacountrythatisrecoveringfromepidemic.
Postoutbreakrecoveryperiod
possiblecutoffat70%
Iamnotsureaboutamatchcutoff.
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DiseaseFMD Jinning
township,Kinmencounty,China2015
Bahrain2015 Israel2013
Botswana2015
Location Jinningtownship,Kinmencounty,China
Bahrain Israel Botswana
Animalidentifier
cattle cattle cattle cattle
Cattledensity High(176) Low(Ithink) low high
Swinedensity low low low low
Infectedpremises
1case176susceptible
13 1(1village)
1
Durationinformation
1monthApril13–May1
Feb23toMarch16
1week 26/07/2015-31/07/2015
links http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Reviewreport/Review?pop=1&reportid=17682
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=398212
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Reviewreport/Review?page_refer=MapFullEventReport&reportid=14420
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Reviewreport/Review?page_refer=MapFullEventReport&reportid=18268
Rangefortop5matches
77-65% 92-67% 96-75% 96-71%
Numberofreasonablematchesintop
Top5 Top5 Top5 Top5
15
5
Notes
Acceptabletohavea70%matchcutoff.
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Diseasefamily_Gastroenteritis
pathogen E.coli E.coli Salmonella Salmonella norovirus Salmonella
Location USA2014 USA2013 UK2014 UK
Sourceofcontamination
Rawclover Cookedfood eggs WatermelonfromBrazil
Frozenstrawberries
Persontoperson
Productorsite/event
product product product product product Site/event
season Spring winter summer December Autumn Autumn
military No No No No
Casenumber 19forall(10fortillMay10th
11,35total 55 22 40(300in10days)
14
Durationinformation
April29–May20
Dec30–Jan30(lastcaseApril10
May21-June30
Oct30-Nov30th
3days 1week
link http://www.cdc.gov/ecoli/2014/O121-05-14/index.html
http://www.cdc.gov/ecoli/2013/O121-03-13/index.html
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=21098
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20866
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20719
http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/14-patients-diagnosed-with-salmonella-at-henry-ford-hospital/35566506
Rangefortop5matches
96-78% 97-78% 92-72% 86-77% 77-73%for3day
79-68%for10day
98-83%
Numberofexpertacceptable
Top4.Lastonecasecounttoo
4matches.Oneand4onthemark.Lastone
All5 All5 All5ifusing10
Possibly4,thoughnotthe
17
matchesintop5
high. toohighcasecount
daysvalue top1match
Notes IdentifiedE.coliaspathogen.Possiblecutoffat80%
IdentifiedpathogenasE.coli.Possiblecutoffat80%
PathogenidentifiedasSalmonella
Pathogen–SalmonellaorE.coli
PathogennarrowedtoE.coliornorovirusbutneeded10daydata
PathogenidentifiedwronglyasNorovirusorShigella.Wedon’thavehospitalassourceatthemoment
70-80%matchrequiredforpathogenidentification
Applyingthistoreallifesituation-BostonChipotleoutbreak
80overtheweekend(Dec5-7)
100casesbyWednesday(Dec9th)
141casesbyFriday(Dec11)
StooltestsforNorovirusandE.coliwereinprogressonDecember8
th
morning.EarlylabtestsreportedpresenceofnorovirusonWednesdayDecember9
th.On
December11thlabresults
confirmedtheabsenceofotherbacterialpathogen(Bostonpublichealthcommission).
Note: NorovirusChina2010,Netherlands-2009andcampylobacteriosisoutbreakswerecausedbywaterbasedcontamination.
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Disease-influenzaID Argentina
2009NewZealand2009
Cambodia2013
Zhejiang,China2013
UnitedStates2011
Location Argentina NewZealand Cambodia Zhejiang,China
UnitedStates
Strain H1N1 H1N1 H5N1 H7N9 H3N2v
Persontoperson
Yes Yes no Yes no
Casenumber 7,173confirmed(811,940Influenza-likecases)
3086confirmed
26 40 12
Durationinformation
May16–August232009
April28–August212009
February1–Dec102013
March9–April172013
August17–December232011
link http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/global/final.pdf
http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/global/final.pdf
http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/H5N1_cumulative_table_archives/en/
http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/influenza_h7n9/ChinaH7N9JointMissionReport2013u.pdf?ua=1
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6051a4.htm
Rangefortop5matches
75-68% 83-71% 100-81% 80-71% 80-77%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top4 Top5 Top5 Top5 Top5
Notes TheyareallH1N1
Allmatchestonovelinfluenza
Allmatchestonovelinfluenza
Allmatchestonovelinfluenza
19
Note:weonlyhave5seasonalinfluenza
Cutoffmatchof70%isreasonable.
Disease–Leptospirosis Maharashtra,
India2015Florida,USA2005
Manila,Philippines2009
Karnataka,India2011
Location Maharashtra Florida Manila Karnataka
HDI medium Veryhigh medium medium
Contactwithwater
Heavyrainfall swimming
rain yes
Floodingorpopulationdisplacement
yes no
yes no
Casenumber 130 44in1month
12in3weeks
300 100(estimatedpeak)totalcasesin2weeks286
Durationinformation
Startofmonsoon(June)tomid-September
1OctobertoNov19 4days
link http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-19-die-due-to-leptospirosis-this-year-2125261
http://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/50/6/843.full.pdf+html
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/D87F541373D245BC4925767A000C5761-Full_Report.pdf
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC33
http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-84930817082&origin=inward&txGid=8F21F1C0A98CEB873852A4C8F44CD289.aqHV
20
10081/
0EoE4xlIF3hgVWgA%3a1
Rangefortop5matches
67-57% 73-66% 88-66% 73-69%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top3. Top3 Top4Oneofthe66%isOK,butotherisnotduetohighcasenumber.
Top3.
Notes Cutoff65% cutoffat70%
Cutoffat70%
Cutoffmatchof70%isreasonable.
21
Disease–Malaria PuertoRicoUSA
2015Venezuela2014
Madagascar2015
Goa,India2015
location PuertoRico,USA Venezuela201
Madagascar Goa
Populationatrisk 4million 31million 24million 1.8million
Casesperthousand
Lessthan1 Morethan1 Morethan1 Lessthan1
Casenumber 3 1000(week44hasanswers)
200,000 650
Durationinformation
Onemonth Week1of2014
5months 4months
link http://promedmail.org/direct.php?id=20150720.3524406
http://www.mpps.gob.ve/index.php?option=com_phocadownload&view=category&id=43:ano2014&Itemid=915
http://www.lexpressmada.com/blog/actualites/paludisme-le-bilan-salourdit-36369/
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/goa/Mapusa-witnessing-an-increase-in-malaria-cases/articleshow/47650415.cms
Rangefortop5matches
80-76% 61-53% 75-42% 75-66%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
1sttwo80&78%matcheshavecasecountin10s.Nextthreehascasecountin100s.All5matchesarereasonable.
All5havethepotentialtobecorrect.1sttwoare60Klastthree600Krange
1sttwocutoffat50%
All5seemsreasonable
Notes Bothsetsofscenariosarereasonableoutcomesbasedoncontrolmeasures
Thisisverybadoutbreakwithprobablycumulative
22
implemented case100-200K
Thematchesforthesetestoutbreaksareoverallalittlelow.Thelibraryistooinclusive,sogettingtestoutbreakswasdifficult.
23
Disease–MeaslesID Denmark2013 Denmark2014 Bosniaand
Herzegovina2014-2015
Congo2015
Populationatrisk
5.6million 5.6million 3.8million 71million,Kataga5million
Countryimmunization%
90 90 89 77
Affectedregion%
90 90 89 77(kataga51%)
Casenumber 9 18 106 20,000
Durationinformation
5weeks 8weeks 5weeks 6months
link http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=21254
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=21254
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=21047
http://www.msf.org/article/drc-katanga-measles-epidemic-keeps-worsening
Rangefortop5matches
95-85% 88-79% 94-81% 85-66%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top1.Casenumbersabittoohighfor3outof5.
Top1.4outof5outbreakssamebutslightlydifferentorderforDenmark2013and2014tests
Top5#1isaverygoodmatchforcasecountaswellastime
Top4
Notes Cutoffat70%
24
Cutoffmatchof70%isreasonable.
25
Disease-MeningococcalID UK2000 Sudan2006 Nigeria2015 USA2013-14 Niger2015
Location UnitedKingdom
Sudan Nigeria PrincetonUniversity,US
Niger
Diseasestatus Non-endemic Non-endemic Endemic Non-endemic Endemic
strain WandA A C B C
Fatality 18.2% 6.9% 7.7% 11.1% 6.9%
Casenumber 22 231 652 9 5855
Durationinformation
March21–April112000
September1-November82006
January26–March52015
March2013–March2014
January1–May102015
link http://www.who.int/csr/don/2000_04_11/en/;http://www.who.int/csr/don/2000_04_21b/en/
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_11_21/en/
http://www.who.int/csr/don/13-march-2015-nigeria/en/
http://www.nfid.org/idinfo/meningitis/meningococcal-b-college-outbreaks.html
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/situation-assessments/meningitis-niger/en/
Rangefortop5matches
79-41% 71-64% 71-64% 69-31% 74-60%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top2 Top5 Top2 Top2 4and5seemtobebestmatchforcasecountandtime
Notes Cutoffat70% Cutoffat60% Lowerscoreduetostrainnotmatching.
Cutoffmatchof60%isreasonable.
26
Disease–PlagueID USA2015 Madagascar2015 Zambia2015
location SantaFe Madagascar Zambia
Mortality 25%,low high low
Plaguetype
septicemic pneumonic bubonic
season fall Rainyseason AprilinZambia,Rainyseason
Casenumber
2inSantaFe,4inNM
14cases,10death 13cases,3deaths
Durationinformation
3monthsor1month
17Aug-27Aug 3monthsor1month
link http://nmhealth.org/news/disease/2015/9/?view=313
http://who.int/csr/don/06-september-2015-plague/en/
http://outbreaknewstoday.com/plague-outbreak-kills-three-in-zambia-24623/
Rangefortop5matches
SantaFe-50-44%
NMscore63-51%
87-52% 81-53%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
None Top3&5thThefourthmatchisverydifferentintermsofcasecountandtimefromother4.
Threemonthslooksbettermatches
Notes Possiblecutoffat65-70%
27
Cutoffmatchof65-70%isreasonable.
28
DiseaseQ-feverID USA2011 UK,
Scotland2006
Baranya,Hungary2013
Bavaria,Germany2014
Location USA(WA,MT) UK,Scotland Baranya,Hungary Bavaria,Germany
Pop.atrisk ~100,000 300(meatplant)
396,633 12.6million
Farm/herdproximity
<5km NO(questionable)
<5km 5km-20km
season summer summer Summer Spring
Casenumber
11 24 70 12
Durationinformation
June-July 1month April–July2013 Jan–April2014
link http://www.capitalpress.com/content/mw-Q-fever-070111
http://www.documents.hps.scot.nhs.uk/ewr/pdf2006/0629.pdf
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20863
http://promedmail.org/direct.php?id=20140511.2464862
Rangefortop5matches
75-62% 92-64% 82-63% 88-51%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top2.Casecountseemstoohighforall,buttimeisgoodmatchfortop2.
Top5 Top1matchesbothcasecountandtimeframe.Others–eithercasecountortimedoesn’tmatch.Historicepidemicpredictsshorterduration.
Top3
29
Notes 70%cutoffmostlikelyfitsbest.Morecasesareexpected
Cutoffmatchof70%isreasonable.
30
Disease-Tularemia USA2015 USA2015 Spain2014 Russia2014
Location SouthDakota,US
Colorado,US Spain Russia
Season summer summer summer Latesummer
Endemicityandruralvs.urban
Endemic,rural Endemic,rural Endemic,rural Endemic,rural
Type Ulceroglandularandrespiratory
Casenumber
7 16 12 7
Durationinformation
June-July2015 June2015 August2014(1month)1
Sept.2014
link http://outbreaknewstoday.com/tularemia-sickens-7-in-south-dakota-since-june-30075/
http://outbreaknewstoday.com/colorado-tularemia-5-cases-reported-in-weld-county-89951/
http://promedmail.org/direct.php?id=20140815.2684689
http://outbreaknewstoday.com/tularemia-outbreak-reported-in-russia-34925/
Rangefortop5matches
82-63% 75-66% 90-69% 76-63%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top2 Top2 Top1Thefirstonelooksverygood.Othersseemtofalltotwocategorieswithloworhighercasecount.Bothmightbepossible
Notsure.Casecountsagainfallintotwocategories
Notes 70%cutoff Cutoff70%
31
Itriedtocharacterizetularemiatypebasedonmatches,butthelibraryistoolimitedtoachievethis.70%cutoffseemreasonableinsometestscenarios.Othersitistoodifficulttodetermine.
32
Disease–WestNilevirus Greece2012 USA2014 NewMexico
2015Ontario2014
Location Greece LosAngeles,CA,USA
NewMexico Ontario
Outbreaktiming
Nottailend Tailend Tailend Tailend
Ruralorurban urban urban rural rural
Climate,precipitation,temperature
csa csb Bsh Dfc
Casenumber 18csinthreeweeks
55 11 20
Durationinformation
80casesin3months
4weeks 4months 4months
link http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20758
http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/acd/docs/West%20Nile/WNVepi2014.pdf
http://www.cdc.gov/westnile/statsmaps/preliminarymapsdata/histatedate.html
http://healthycanadians.gc.ca/diseases-conditions-maladies-affections/disease-maladie/west-nile-nil-occidental/surveillance-eng.php
Rangefortop5matches
95-77%,91-77%
80-67% 74-48% 68-52%
Numberofexpertacceptablematchesintop5
Top5 Top5 Top1 Top1.Forotherscasecountistoohigh
Notes Fouroutbreaksarecommonforthescenarios
70%cutoff
Cutoffmatchof65-70%isreasonable.
33