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Sustainable Development in a Fragile Ecosystem
This presentation:
Threats
Namibias setting
Impacts of devolution
Climate change
Conclusions
Chris Brown
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Key threats to Ecosystems
Land transformation Loss of biological diversity
Impacts of climate change
Rural poverty
And these are all interrelated
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RIVERS
Zambezi
ChobeLinyantiKwando
KavangoKunene
Orange
Perennial Rivers
All other rivers flow briefly
during good rainy seasons
and some may not flow for
many years
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RAINFALL
Namibia is anarid country
KEY TO RAINFALL
andLAND
CAPABILITY
Domest ic
Livestock
Key to Land Capability
Wildl i fe Crops
Arid MarginalT
Desert T
Semi-arid MarginalT Marginal
Sub-humid LowT Medium
Semi-arid T Low Marginal
RIVERS
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VISION 2030
THE OVERRIDING
MESSAGE THAT THIS
REPORT CONVEYS IS :by capitalising on Namibias comparative advantages
and providingappropriate incentives to use our natural
resources in the most efficient ways possible, we will be
in a better position to create a safer, healthier and more
prosperous future for all Namibians to 2030 and
beyond.
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WHAT ARE NAMIBIAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES ?
VAST OPEN SPACES AND WILDERNESS AREAS
ABUNDANT AND DIVERSE BIODIVERSITY AND
WILDLIFE POPULATIONS that are well adapted to
Namibias harsh climatic and physical conditions,
and have extremely high direct& indirect use value.
UNCONTAMINATED MEAT AND
FISH PRODUCTS
Rich CULTURAL diversities andvaluable TRADITIONAL
KNOWLEDGE
Efficient SERVICE Industries
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Biological diversity Endemic diversity
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People 2.1 million
Goats 2.0 million
Sheep 2.0 million
Cattle 2.0 million
Wildlife 2.0 million +
Cattle 31 million ha
Small scale cereal & livestock 5.5 million ha
Small stock 27 million ha
Intensive agriculture
0.04 million ha
Distributionof wildlife:
Bi di i i i d
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Vegetation types
Biomes
Protected AreasConcessions
FreeholdConservancies
CommunalConservancies
Biodiversity setting continued..
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Registered & emergingCommunal Conservancies
= 18.5%
State Protected Areas= 16.5%
Freehold Conservancies= 6.1%
Community Forestsand Concessions
= 1.3%
Total Area underconservation management
44.5%
Private protected areas2.1%
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Livestock and wildlife numbers in Namibia over past 40 years
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
3.500.000
4.000.000
4.500.000
5.000.000
1971/2 1981/2 1991/2 2001/2 2004 2008 2009
Cattle
Small-stock
Wildlife
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0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
1997 2000 2004 2008
Number of people employed in the agricultural sector(data from the Ministry of Labour & Social Services)
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TourismTrophyhunting
Live capture& sell
Own use
Meatproduction
Ownuse
Venisonproduction
Livesale
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Live sale (N$)
Cattle 1,500 - 5,000
Goats - 200 - 700
Springbok - 950Oryx - 2,200Kudu - 2,900
Giraffe - 15,000
Roan - 120,000Sable - 220,000
Buffalo - 350,000White Rhino - 250,000Black Rhino - 500,000
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Tourism (million N$)
Wildlife viewing 2,700
Trophy hunting - 316
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Rainfall (land productivity)
Higher financial
returns from exotic
species management
in areas of highrainfall & soil
fertility
Higher financial
returns from
indigenous species
management in lower
rainfall areas
Policy failures drive downvalues of indigenous species
Subsidies (e.g. in agriculture) driveup value of exotic species management
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National levelTotal gross annual output of wholeagricultural sector (large & small stock,and crops) commercial andsubsistence sectors
N$1,878 million
Total gross annual output of non-agricultural natural resource basedsector ( tourism, trophy hunting,
wildlife products, indigenous plantproducts, etc i.e. indigenous
biodiversity) commercial sector only
N$3,200 million
Indigenous biodiversity production systems have overtaken agriculturalproduction systems and exceed them by a factor of at least two times
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Best returns on land- financial results: Karas region
Item Communallivestock
Freeholdlivestock
Tourism
Financial grossincome perhectare (N$)
4.71 15.00 165.00
Net cash income
per hectare (N$)
0.93 0.48 23.00
Livelihoodsincome (N$)
1.08 3.27 19.00
Financial rate of
return
5.5% 9.8% 12.9%
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Job creation: farming versus tourism
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
before 1996
farming
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Years
Num
bersofemploy
ees
Fulltime employment - operational
Contract employment - building
Farming
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The tourism sector Massive growth in tourism since 1989
Now over 800 000 visitors / year
6.9% growth projected for next 10 years
72,000 jobs; N$6.8 billion to GDP
= 16% of total GDP
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
No
ofvisitors
2006 2007
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Number of tourism
establishments registered with
the Namibia Tourism Board in 2004-
2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2004 2005 2006
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Number of hunters visiting Namibia
Year: 1994 1999 2004 2008
Number
of hunters 1,918 4,030 5,363 7,000
Overall increase 265%
Trophy hunting (2005) earned N$316 million - 20%more than all small stock farming (freehold and
communal together)
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0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Freehold wildlife management unit Private Reserve
Community Forest Communal Conservancy
Concession Protected Area
Area of land (km2) under eachtype of conservationmanagement: 1975 - 2010
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Percentage of Biomes covered by different forms of conservationmanagement
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Percentage of Vegetation types covered by different forms of conservation management
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Connectivity and co-managementlinking parks and conservancies
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Some wildlife trends incommunal conservancies
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Poaching virtually stoppedIncreasing wildlife numbersElephant & rhino doubledPredator recoveryRise in HWCConservancy management
skills built
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Between 1999 20127
Total almost 5,000
animals translocated 5 different species
Value over N$15 million
6 locally extinct species
Black rhino
Giraffe
Black faced impala
Burchells zebra
Blue wildebeest
Sable antelope
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Mudumu north ComplexKhaudum north Complex
Greater Waterberg Complex
Greater Sossusvlei Complex
Greater Fish River CanyonComplex
Co-management
approaches
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Greater
Sossusvlei-Namib co-
managementComplex
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Climate change projections
Temperature changes
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Climate change projections continued ..
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Climate changeprojections continued ..
Projected changes in
rainfall across Africa
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Impacts on production systems
Cattle 31 million ha (38%)
Small scale cereal & livestock 5.5 million ha (9%)
Small stock 27 million ha
(33%)
Intensive agriculture0.04 million ha (
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Climate change projections continued ..
Current mean annualrainfall acrossNamibia
Projected mean annual rainfall across Namibiaby 2050 and 2080, according to predictionsgenerated by the HADCM3 generalcirculation model
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20502000
Impacts on Cropping
Growing Season Failure
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Projected areas lost to rain-fed crop production inNamibia and number of
people impacted
By 2050 By 2080
4 million ha 6 million ha
209,000 people
28% of rural pop.
485,000 people
38% or rural pop.
20802050
Present
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2080
2050
Present
Projected prime large-stock farming areas inNamibia
Prime large-stock area lost
By 2050 By 2080
9 million ha 18 million ha
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y = 0.0002x^2 -0.0498x + 7.000
Relationship between rainfall and carrying capacity
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Median
25%-75%
Non-Outlier RangeOutliers
current 2050 2080
Time period
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Revenueperhecta
re
Livestock farming revenue
is strongly linked to annualrainfall.
A 1% change in rainfallleads to a 1.36% change inrevenue per ha.
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Projected livestock and wildlife numbers in Namibia inresponse to climate change
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
3.500.000
4.000.000
4.500.000
5.000.000
Present 2050 2080
Cattle
Smallstock
Wildlife
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Conclusions1. Build on comparative and competitive advantages
2. Link conservation to rural development and livelihood
diversification
3. Align markets to work for conservation of indigenousecosystems and biodiversity through appropriate policies
and legislation on wise and sustainable use
4. Devolve rights and responsibilities over land and natural
resources to local level
5. Use protected areas to create incentives for compatible land
uses and as engines for local & national development
6. Limit the role of government to that of creating a conducive
environment, regulating for equity and providing extension
and capacity-building services to the rural
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And finally,
If you work against market forces, you will fail.
If you work with market forces you have harnessed the mostpowerful partner available.
Thank you