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o c e ce, ro a y Judgement and
SuperstitionWhat is a ‘coincidence’?Why might there be an evolutionary
advantage in assuming that coincidences
have a reason?What is the relationship between
coincidence and ‘probabilitymisjudgement’?
What is the relationship betweencoincidence and superstition?
Why are pigeons superstitious? In whatway?
What functions do superstitious beliefs
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ro a y u e e ,coincidence and
supersitionExplanations for anomalousexperience
The role of coincidence andprobability judgements in anomalousexperience
Explanations for superstitious
behaviour and magical thinkingPersonality factors underlying
anomalous experience
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Be random!
Write 5o digits (0-9) in a randomorder.
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How good are people at judging probability?
Which of these sets of lotterynumbers is more likely to come up?
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 612, 19, 24, 28, 34, 41
How big a group of people do youneed before the chance of two of
them sharing a birthday is above50%?23, 43, or 98?
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Bad judgers of probability:
How does ‘repetition avoidance’identify them?
How do they score on ‘belief in theparanormal’ scales?What is the validity problem here?
Why do they believe in horoscopes?Why are they taken in by ‘psychic
mediums’?
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s pro a y u e erelated to belief in the
paranormal?Blackmore 100 volunteers aged 12-67 years and got them to assess
probability in coin tossing task.Also gave them a ‘belief in theparanormal’ questionnaire. The ‘goats’ performed much better. How is this related to the role of
coincidence and superstition in paranormal belief?
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Homework for Thursday
Notes addressing the questions onyour ‘coincidence and probability
judgements’ sheet.
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‘Supersense’?
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vo u o aryexplanations for
superstitious behaviourAssuming that a ‘coincidence’ (twoevents occurring close together in
time) means that the two arecausally related may have hadadaptive value for our ancestors. Atleast, the consequences of assuming
false causal links would have usuallybeen much better than missing realcausal links.
Explain this statement fully.
i f i i
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Formation of superstitiousbehaviour through operantconditioning
How did Skinner make pigeons‘superstitious’?
Explain this using the concept of ‘reinforcement’.How does this relate to the
evolutionary argument?
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Links
Superstitious pigeons:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xr
Superstitions soldiers:http://
news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_